Long-term: The King or Hamels?

by ultxmxpx on May 29, 2007 1:49 PM EDT Comment 37 comments

Factoring in injury risk, who will be better? This year? The next several years? Sure both have great stuff, but how will that translate to performance?

Felix was absolutely great in his first two starts, but since coming back from the DL he's been averaging over a hit an inning and a BB/9 over 4.5. He still hasn't allowed a homer so far though. OOPS of .634 and K/9 of 10.6. Is he getting unlucky? Did management tell him to throw a fewer number of a certain pitch? Or has his command just been the problem? His groundball ratio is still great... even better than last year's.

Hamels has been winning games and could be on his way to a 20 win season. His BB/9 is just 2.5 while his K/9 is 10.3. But he's allowed 10 HRs so far and has allowed an isoP of .180 compared to Felix's .077. Why does Hamels allow so many XBHs? His GB/FB ratio is slightly improved over last year, but is still just 1.13. Will his ERA improve as the year goes on and allow fewer XBHs in his first full year starting in the bigs?

Poll

Who is the best for the next 5 years or so....

Felix Hernandez

69 votes

Cole Hamels

51 votes

120 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 37 comments

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Comments

Development time vs Wear and tear

is what this question come down to plain and simple. Maybe teams should start breaking kids hands after they draft them so overly ambitious GM's can't do much damage to them.

King Felix is going to be a glorified Rich Harden which is one of the saddest things for baseball fans.

by Terry Ryan Jr on May 29, 2007 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hamels

Hamels has much cleaner mechanics, which bode well for his future health, despite having numerous health problems in the minors. He's gotten into a much better and more rigorous stretching routine, and has had zero problems, health wise, since his panic DL move last year. Hernandez has real sloppy mechanics, and clearly he isn't "right" right now.

I think Hamels is always going to give up home runs, for two reasons. His HR/9 rate was so low in the minors because he played in neutral/pitcher friendly parks. Lakewood is death on hitters, especially in terms of suppressing home runs, and Clearwater is pretty neutral, same with Reading. Plus, minor league hitters just couldn't figure out his changeup. His fastball is good enough to blow by quality major league hitters, how is a 22 year old who has never played at AA going to hit it? His Bugs Bunny changeup makes the best major leaguers look silly, even moreso against minor leaguers. But the thing is, he plays half his games in a hitter's paradise, and when he misses with a changeup, he often times misses up with it, and nothing is more inviting than a hanging changeup for a hitter.

In the long run, if Hamels stays healthy, he'll have the better career. Hernandez isn't quite Rich Harden, but his mechanics are poor, and that leads me to believe he'll have a hard time translating his potential and talent into results. Meanwhile, Hamels leads the NL in strikeouts and has a legit shot at winning 20 games this season, plus he's only 23, it's not like he's 6 years older than Hernandez.

by phuturephillies on May 29, 2007 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Felix

Don't get me wrong, Hamels is terrific, but Felix's GB/K combo is virtually unprecedented. If he stays healthy, he could be the best pitcher of the next 10-15 years.

by Yakker on May 29, 2007 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I really like Felix

I really like Felix too. He's much younger than Cole Hamels and likely already better.

The only pitcher I put up there with Felix is Tim Lincecum. I like Felix's age, but I like Tim's mechanics (and likely better future health).

by sharksrog on May 29, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You put Lincecum up there?

surprised face

by Fett42 on May 29, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nay

for Tim Lincecum needs no one to put him anywhere, and indeed he tends to put others down... there... high above his lofty perch

by mroak89 on May 29, 2007 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The rest of us...

...don't put anyone else up there.

I would personally like to thank Dave Littlefield for banishing the ghost of Scott Kazmir from Shea Stadium.

by uga007 on May 29, 2007 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Value

If you can't stay healthy though, does talent matter? I thought the question was, which one will have the more valuable career and be the better pitcher. Rich Harden is probably more talented than Dan Haren, but which would you rather have? Haren of course, because he's durable and actually stays on the field.

Hernandez is only 2.5 years older than Hamels, I don't see that as "a lot younger"

by phuturephillies on May 29, 2007 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I...

...do.

I would personally like to thank Dave Littlefield for banishing the ghost of Scott Kazmir from Shea Stadium.

by uga007 on May 29, 2007 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cole Hamels

has a much longer injury history then Hernandez

by Trenchtown on May 29, 2007 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Injuries

are just so hard to predict with a young pitcher that, while you have to acknowledge them and try to acount for them, for me it's a little like throwing darts at a board.

Yes, if I thought one of these two had a significantly higher injury risk than the other for the long-term, than naturally I would take the guy who can log the IPs. But I just don't have enough confidence that Cole will be significantly healthier than Felix for the next 10 years, and so I went with the pitcher who I think has a better profile.

by Yakker on May 29, 2007 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nor I

I don't see being two and a half years OLDER as being a "lot younger," either. :)

by sharksrog on May 30, 2007 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would take Felix

As people has noted, Felix's high GB tendencies tend to supress XBHs, especially HRs (note 0 HR in 30+ IP this year). Most of the hits off of him are groundballs through the infield.

I do think Felix's control will improve to his established level over a sub 3.00 BB rate, which it was before he got injured. You have to take into consideration that Felix allowed 4 BB in his first 17 IP (2.11 BB/9), but gave up alot more afterwards. Seeing as he didn't pitch for a month, and had no rehab starts, it's understandable that his control's been a bit shaky his first few starts back.

I think something that has been overlooked is AL vs NL here. Felix is sporting a higher K rate than Hamels despite pitching in the undeniably stronger AL, which also uses the DH. That helps Hamels' K and BB rates TREMENDOUSLY. A quick survey shows that Hamels has struck out 26% and walked 7.3% of position players and pinch hitters (who are also usually worse than a DH) this year, and struck out a ridiculous 60% of walked 0% of the pitchers he's faced this year. I think it's safe to say facing pitchers instead of DHs, overall league strength aside, probably adds 1-2 K/9 to Hamels and maybe helps his BB/9 by 0.25-0.50.

This isn't to say Hamels isn't awesome... he's one of my favorite young pitchers by far. But If I'm making a team I take Felix over Hamels without a moment's hesitation. Now, if you're talking just fantasy stats and the numbers they'll put up in their respective leagues, that would make it alot closer though I think I'd still go with Felix.

by Fett42 on May 29, 2007 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

League Averages so far this year

AL: 3.44.... 6.37
NL: 3.40.... 6.59

Then for just starting pitchers:
AL: 3.09.... 6.06
NL: 3.19.... 6.23

Sure, it's a difference, but it's certainly not tremendous. And it looks like it makes no difference in the walk rate.

by ultxmxpx on May 29, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As a whole, the difference might be ~.2

But it definitely makes a difference for indivicual pitchers. Good pitchers with Legit K pitches give pitchers absolutely no chance, however. Pitchers with lower K rates just let pitchers hit themselves out. That 60% for pitchers vs 26% for everyone else with Hamels is certainly no fluke.

by Fett42 on May 29, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

clunk

He's struckout the #9 hitter 14 times in 26 ABs... never walked him, but I don't know about sacrifices. The #8 hitter has struckout 10 times in 28 ABs and walked 4 times. 3 hits vs. 7 hits. It's probably a K/9 difference of .3 for Hamels being in the NL compared to AL. No more than .4.

by ultxmxpx on May 29, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The question is still

...long term value. Are people confident that Hernandez will clean up his mechanics and avoid injuries enough to wear he'll consistently make 32-36 starts and log 200-230 IP? He's already having elbow issues. Hamels has thrown 74 innings this year, and is on pace for 226 innings, with 263 K to 64 BB.

Again, raw talent-wise, I'd take Hernandez. But in terms of talent + mechanics + league, I'll take Hamels. Not to mention, he's left handed, and we know about the shelf life for lefties in general.

by phuturephillies on May 29, 2007 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Definitely agree Hamels will rack up more IP

I do think Felix won't have much trouble hitting 200 IP per year though. I'd actually be worried if hemade 200 IP this and last year given his young age, and his injury scare might be something of a blessing in disguise keeping his IP down this year. Like I said before, looking at fantasy stats, given the league, its alot closer. If I'm looking at one to start a team, I take Felix.

by Fett42 on May 29, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Granny Smith Vs. Golden Delicious

See:
DectectoVision

Love how people who rarely, if ever, see Felix pitch, more than the 30 seconds he appears on ESPN every fifth day, anoint themselves as experts in the realm of pitching mechanics. Sorry to generalize, phuturephillies, but I got an inkling you watch far more Phils games than M's(and I'm guilty of the reverse).

There's no SINGLE way to pitch safely AND effectively. Some guy's are freaks. The M's for their part are babying the hell out of Felix to avoid catastrophe(as evidenced by his having to be forcibly removed from his last start). To date the only arm issues he's experienced can best be described as fatigue.

The reality is that every pitcher will at some point suffer an arm-related injury and very few, if any, of us bloggers are qualified to give a truly informed analysis of a pitcher's motion. The aforementioned "fatigue" King Felix has twice experienced, shoulder and elbow(as well as the back and shoulder issues in Hamels' past), could very well be a precursor to something more serious or, just as likely, it could be his body's natural reaction to one of the most unnatural acts humanly possible.

The X factor that separates the two may ultimately come down to their makeup(intangibles). Won't see Felix break his pitching hand in a bar fight.

See:
Hamel Toe

by Portablestanzas on May 29, 2007 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

okay...

you'll see him out of shape in spring training and during the season though...

by mroak89 on May 29, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

You know why he was involved in that fight, right? He was defending a girl who happened to be pregnant at the time. Does that make it right? No, but he isn't a deviant off the field.

Both are outstanding pitchers, no debating that, and I'm not denying Felix's talent, I said above in terms of raw talent he's superior, but talent alone doesn't get you through the majors. I think both will end up with fine careers, and the durability thing will be the final decider.

by phuturephillies on May 29, 2007 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

defending as in...

averting her from imminent, serious and unavoidable danger? or defending as in a drunken, trailer-trash squabble cause a pregnant girl got called a "Ho"? There is a difference.

Have seen him labeled as a "Party Guy" as well. Don't mean to imply the dude's Pacman Jones or anything, but Felix has zero black marks on his record and is, excuse the cliche, wise beyond his years.

Simply put, he's on completely different plane of existence. He has no equals. Health is all that stands in the way of him being the best thing since sliced bread. If you have MLB.tv I urge you to catch him on the mound as often as possible. "Special" doesn't do him justice.

Only time will tell.

by Portablestanzas on May 29, 2007 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if you're really going to....

....get into name-calling and worrying over petty issues that don't really matter, just for the sake of scoring a "point" for Felix (who I do indeed think is better than Hamels), then you might want to look a little harder before you say there are "zero black marks on his record."

He showed up overweight and out of shape to camp last year, and has described his off-season regime as "Baseball, women and beer, that's what we do."

Do I care? Not at all. But people did at the time.

I don't really care who Cole Hamels punched either. Nor if either one of them forgot to phone their mothers on Mothers Day.

by bleedjaxblue on May 29, 2007 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You

make excellent, intelligent comments.

+1.

by mroak89 on May 29, 2007 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

curious cause hadn't heard

the whole story. didn't mean to call anyone names, just imagining the scene of every bar fight I ever seen. here in the southeast they always involve "drunken trailer trash".

"Baseball, women and beer, that's what we do."

I believe is more in reference to the culture of his homeland(unless he always refers to himself as "We", which I've never noticed).

Do i believe he's a saint? No. But having no legal history to speak of, vs having a, possibly out of character, altercation in a bar is indeed a point for Felix. I thought that's what the discussion was about?

Felix FYI is married, with child and lives with his parents. It's not a perfect assumption, but living in such an environment is likely more conducive to his staying out of environments which might lead to freak occurrences, such as bar fights.

by Portablestanzas on May 29, 2007 5:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

how many people's careers....

...have been destroyed by barfights?

I can only think of one, which is two fewer than I can think of who had their careers destroyed by fishing boats.

I have been in both bar fights and in fishing boats, and I don't think either would have put my hypothetical pitching career in much jeopardy.

Freak injuries, sure. But their called "freak" because they're so unexpected, like lightening striking. Obviously, Cole should stay away from the barfights for any number of reasons, but I'd worry about the PR more than the DL.

by bleedjaxblue on May 29, 2007 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fishing boats?

3 careers ruined by fishing boats? Gotta hear that.

I think we're dancing around the same point here. I'm sorry u feel I snuck in a low-blow. Not tryin to insult anyone. But 21 year old Felix has thus far displayed better judgement and awareness of the ability he possess, than 21 year old Cole Hamels did the year he broke his hand, is that not fair?

As important as mechanics, physical ability and luck all are to building successful career, so too are the mental aspects of the game and keeping your ego in check.

By virtue of the conditioning program Hamels' has been on since his back woes and the lack of current negative PR, one could argue he's certainly turned the corner in that respect.

The difference for Felix is, this appears to be a lesson he needn't learn and/or learned 2-3 years before Hamels.

by Portablestanzas on May 29, 2007 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah....sorry if it seems....

....like I'm just being argumentative. I agree -- getting in a barfight is immature. No good at all.

I just am not sure it's particularly likely to be career-threatening (or at least not more likely than, for instance, the tendency for Latin American players getting fat after coming to the States, something which has wreck far more careers).

My real point, though, was that none of these things are particularly big factors in trying to devine who will have the best career. Take this analogy: Pretend you're deciding whether Bill Gates or Larry Ellison will have more money in 50 years, and someone wanted to make a big deal about the fact that gas prices were lower in the Northwest than in the Bay Area. While true, it seems like a molehill of an issue compared to the mountains of money these two will be dealing in. To me, worrying about whether Cole Hamels is more likely to injure himself in a barfight (or something else similarly immature) seems like that molehill, provided he's immature at the Darryl Strawberry level, where disaster is inevitable. Anyway, I can understand that maybe these small points are the only way to argue, since both these guys are so talented that there's no real way to declare a winner on straight talent/performance alone.

As for the negative PR/immaturity, sure, it's nice that Felix has had less.

And on the fishing boat -- I had remembered there being three Indians on that boating trip in '93, but could only remember Tim Crews and Steve Olin. It looks to me like the reason I could only remember those two is because there was no third person on the boat, and I misremembered. That's not really the point, though. Anyway, that's the career-ending fishing boat I was thinking of. Maybe there was another? Haha -- doubt it though.

Now that I think about it, I kind of remember Jose Silva sustaining a bar fight injury too (Brien Taylor being the obvious first), but, again, it's not a real common occurence (nor can I find confirmation about Silva online right now).

by bleedjaxblue on May 29, 2007 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tim Hudson

Not a career-ender, but Hudson was apparently in a bar fight in Beantown during the 2003 ALDS. It was labeled by some as one of the sources of the oblique troubles that plagued him for years. Others say the story is pure hokum, so believe what you want.

by Yakker on May 29, 2007 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought the oblique troubles....

....stemmed from having extreme imbalance in muscle development (i.e., his right oblique were just to swoll from throwing all the time, and it led to injuries). Of course, this could be just as much guesswork as your story, but it's what the popular story in the Bay Area was at the time.

by bleedjaxblue on May 29, 2007 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Bay Area's a pretty diverse place

...so there's plenty of room for more than one story about Huddy's obliques. ;-)

by Yakker on May 30, 2007 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fishing Boat

The third person in the fishing boat was Bob Ojeda and he pitched later that season for the Indians.

by redsoxfn on May 29, 2007 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

Hamels is married too. I've watched plenty of King Felix. Trust me, I understand the talent, I've talked about it a few times here already. But staying healthy is part of baseball, and your mechanics and how you carry yourself play a big part in that. It's uncertain, of course. Both will have fine careers, but come on, I'm a Phillies fan, I clearly think very highly of Hamels.

by phuturephillies on May 29, 2007 5:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

exactly.

we both got blinders on. I hope you didn't feel I was being hostile.

I do feel however, there's this sense that after his dominance in 04, less than a 30-win season in 05 made him overrated and less valuable Joe Mays.

by Portablestanzas on May 29, 2007 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wish i could edit...

meant

I do feel however, there's this sense that after his dominance in *05, less than a 30-win season in **06* made him overrated and less valuable Joe Mays.

by Portablestanzas on May 29, 2007 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mechanics

I like how so many people tell you people have 'good' or 'bad' mechanics, with little no no emperical data supporting how one type of pitching motion leads to more injuries.

by Fett42 on May 29, 2007 7:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs