MOD Cubs

by UncleBuck44 on May 18, 2007 12:24 AM EDT

The Cubs selections will be: #3, 48, 98, 128, 158

Recent first round selections:

Tyler Colvin-OF-Clemson
Mark Pawelek-LHP-High School(Utah)
Grant Johnson-RHP-Notre Dame(2ND ROUND)
Ryan Harvey-OF-High School(Florida)

Top 10 Prospects:

Felix Pie-OF
Donald Veal-LHP
Jeff Samardzija-RHP
Tyler Colvin-OF
Sean Gallagher-RHP
Eric Patterson-2B
Scott Moore-3B
Ryan Harvey-OF
Chris Huseby-RHP
Mark Pawelek-LHP

I'm confident in saying that David Price will be one of two players that won't be available when the Cubs pick at #3, but if he is still on the board, I'm guessing most will want me to take him.

My Top 5 for pick #3:
Josh Vitters
Matt Wieters
Rick Porcello
Andrew Brackman
Ross Detwiler

Feel free to add anything you want. Would love to get a lot of suggestions for picks 48, 98, 128 and 158.

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Comments

yo

i am willing to help, not very experienced in basebll drafts but relatively educated on the cubs farm system and needs. I work sunday but i can log on occassionally

by Trobone on May 18, 2007 3:44 AM EDT reply actions

has to be the pick at #3. Take whomever the Royals don't. If the Royals take Porcello? Tough. I lean towards Wieters, just because catchers are so tough to find, but love both players. Either would be great. Vitters might be the safer bet.

Stay away from Brackman. Tough sign, projectable right-hander--Our system is full of those guys. I realize you don't draft for need, but we can't keep drafting on risk. We've got lots of high-risk, high upside righthanders.

I'll work on looking up players for later in the draft but jeez, I'm not John Sickels. I'm really only familiar with the guys expected to go in the first round.

by Josh Timmers on May 18, 2007 2:30 PM EDT reply actions

I think

if Wieters and Vitters are graded equally, you go for Wieters. Although a lot of people are saying we love Vitters, so either one works. But catcher is a sore spot in the system, with Jake Fox playing more a 1st/LF/DH (and occasionally catching), Chris Robinson and Mark Reed looking like career minor league types, and Soto/Hill more backup backstops than starter. Wieters would have a chance to move up the system fast. Even if Barrett gets resigned, it doesn't figure to be anything more than a 3 year deal, which, if all goes well, would be a solid ETA for Wieters.

That said, if you think Vitters grades out much better, than you go for Vitters. I've always been of the mindset that you go for the best talent, provided money isn't an issue, and it isn't. I like what I know of Porcello, but I think I'd go with Wieters/Vitters ahead of Rick as of now.

by toonsterwu on May 18, 2007 6:14 PM EDT reply actions

I think Fox

is done as a catcher. I don't think he's caught a game since early April. Catcher is a real hole in the organization, with maybe Wellington Castillo down in Peoria as the only one who looks like he could possibly be a major league starter. But he's so far away that that just might be a case that he hasn't had the opportunity to disappoint us yet.

That said, I wrote that Wieters was riskier than Vitters because there is some question whether Wieters can stay at catcher. And if Wieters can't stay at catcher, then he isn't nearly as valuable as Vitters.

Wieters is also represented by Boras and wants a mint, but the Cubs have never had a problem with that nor a problem dealing with Boras.

I've heard we love Vitters, but I also have heard we love Wieters too. I'm hearing it more on the Vitters side though.

by Josh Timmers on May 18, 2007 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions

bpa

you have to go with the best player available... not by need. In my opinion the goal is to add as much talent to the system which can make an impact. I think both weiters and vitters are high impact bats. From what I have read eiters is a rare player with plate dicipline, average and power. If he is available then I say we take him.

by Trobone on May 18, 2007 7:07 PM EDT reply actions

Draft

Trobone does that mean you are my second in command in case I can't make it?
I will definitely try go BPA, but right now it's between Wieters and Vitters pretty much. Tough to decide who the BPA is there.
Brackman is not in my Top 5, 10, 15 after reading about his fatigue issues and topping out at 87 MPH.
It's pretty much down to Vitters and Wieters for #3 for me although Porcello is in the picture but no one else.

by UncleBuck44 on May 18, 2007 7:55 PM EDT reply actions

My vote for Vitters

I know that catcher is a big hole in the organization on all levels but I think its tough to pass up what many think is the best bat in the draft. I think the organization is going to start turning to position players after going with pitchers for all those years. Porcello seems to have it all which makes him intriguing. Also, with the team graduating many top pitchers in the system it has gone a little thin compared to years past. I think Vitters would be the BPA and going with Wieters would be an attempt to fill a need(granted a large one) but it is not for sure whether Wieters projects as a Catcher long-term.

by wibadger on May 18, 2007 8:26 PM EDT reply actions

Distant Past

Even though I drafted Vitters in my NL-only fantasy draft this year, I don't want a repeat of the Earl Cunningham - Frank Thomas debacle. :) Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on May 18, 2007 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Organizational Depth

Maybe some of you guys that know more about the system than others of us can comment on glaring areas of need for the system so we can make a decision on picks from the 2nd round on.

by wibadger on May 18, 2007 8:35 PM EDT reply actions

Pick #48

Lets take a look at some of the players that could be available at #48:

Justin Jackson-SS-High School
Kellen Kulbacki-OF-James Madison
Ryan Dent-2B/SS-High School
Josh Donaldson-C-Auburn
Corey Brown-OF-Oklahoma St.
Will MiddlebrookS-3B-High School

Nevin Griffith-RHP-High School
Greg Peavey-RHP-High School
Neil Ramirez-RHP-High School
James Adkins-LHP-Tennessee
Eddie Kunz-RHP-Oregon St.
Joshua Fields-RHP-Georgia

I'm sure a couple of the players above could be off the board by pick 48, but I'm just throwing out some names.

One guy that could be worth a good long look is Joshua Fields, the closer from Georgia.
Fields was rated as the top closer in college coming into the year but he's had plenty of struggles and could fall to the Cubs in the supplemental 1st round.
Fields has a 92-96 MPH fastball and a 77-82 MPH slider. Control has been a problem this year for him, but it wasn't in 2006 when he absolutely dominated NCAA hitters.

I only bring up the point about drafting a closer because Ryan Dempster isn't exactly an all star. If Fields goes back to throwing like he did last year, getting him at 48 would be a huge steal. It'd be a risky pick, but could payoff big time.

by UncleBuck44 on May 18, 2007 9:00 PM EDT reply actions

I wouldn't worry

about Dempster. We've got plenty of closers-in-waiting in the minors. Heck, some think Samardzija will end up there. If Josh Fields falls and you think he's the BPA, take him, but not because of any concern about Dempster.

I checked the scouting reports of the players on your list, and I really like Ryan Dent. His defense is a concern, but I think the organization needs some speed. Griffin is also a very intriguing HS arm--I like what people are saying about his poise, which I look for in a HS arm. Ramirez sounds good too, but I'd rank him a step below Griffin.

As bad as catching is in our organization, Donaldson does not excite me at all.

Middlebrooks actually interests me more as a pitcher.

I'd rank your list thusly

Dent
Griffin
Fields
Ramirez
Middlebrooks
Kulbacki
Everyone else
Donaldson.

by Josh Timmers on May 19, 2007 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

need-based drafting in baseball isn't nor should it be as pronounced as it is in other sports - take the best player available. Especially when it comes to closers - that position will take care of itself through either a current starter in the minors or free-agency.

If Clemens and Smoltz face off in a deciding Game 7, we could witness the perfect storm of nonsensical comments from Bravesin07 and NYYLover1000 - gatling

by slurve on May 20, 2007 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions

BPA

I only brought up Josh Fields because I think if he is there at 48, then I'd strongly believe he'd be the best player available.
If Fields were having a good year, he'd be a Top 10 pick instead of Daniel Moskos.
For you guys that don't like drafting closers early let me say that I wasn't a big fan of it a couple of years ago, but I realized the goal with each pick is to produce a big leaguer. A college closer has probably the best chance of becoming a major leaguer.
With all that said, I don't think Fields will fall that far but he'd be one of my top 3 guys for 48 if he did.

As for the rest of the picks...
I think I would rank Justin Jackson over Ryan Dent, although Dent has a much better chance of making it to 48. Dent is the better hitter for average and has more speed, but Jackson is the much better defender, he has speed as well, has more power and will more than likely stay at shortstop whereas Dent profiles as a second baseman.
Jackson is another guy that could have been a top 10 pick if he showed enough skill at the plate. I would guess he hasn't since most services are not projecting him to go in the 1st round. However his stats(as of May 10) suggest otherwise: .515(49-95), 11 HRs, 12 2B, 5 3B, 14 BB, 6 K, 21-21 SB. Sure you can't tell much by looking at high school stats, but what more can this guy do?
Going back to Josh Donaldson, I too am not much of a fan. He is a pretty good hitter but he won't be a catcher for very long. When he switches posistions, he'll lose a lot of value.

Taking a look at some more pitchers...
Nevin Griffith is the starting pitcher I'm looking at most here. He throws 91-94 MPH consistently and has hit 96 MPH. He throws a nasty slider in the low to mid 80s(he broke Michael Burgess's metal bat with one). His control and mechanics are said to be good and scouts love his makeup. There's really nothing not to like.
Neil Ramirez doesn't have much in the way of offspeed pitches and throws with the same velocity.
I worry about James Adkins' arm because he has logged 105+ innings each year he's been at Tennessee, including 127 his freshman year which is insane for a freshman. He's a good pick at 48, but I just worry about health, though it hasn't been a problem yet.

If I had to give a top 5 for 48:
Joshua Fields
Nevin Griffith
Justin Jackson
Ryan Dent
James Adkins

by UncleBuck44 on May 20, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Cole St. Clair

I'm now heavily considering Cole St. Clair from Rice at #48 but am hesitant due to his injury this year. Although the injury was caused by weight lifting and not throwing so it is not a huge concern if he is back throwing strong which his stats would suggest.

St. Clair was another possible Top 15 guy going into the year but fell because he got hurt. Unlike Fields, St. Clair could have a future as a starter. If he stays in the pen, the Cubs could have a new closer and fine pitcher very soon.

by UncleBuck44 on May 24, 2007 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions

be more than happy

to help tomorrow but again i am at work and on the west coast. if presented with options i can do some research anf give an opinion but i can't be the number 1 backup

by Trobone on May 19, 2007 4:02 PM EDT reply actions