Sabean/Bochy

by BoristheSpider on May 12, 2007 1:38 AM EDT

what are Sabean and Bochy thinking having Lincecum throw 112 pitches? Obviously they aren't thinking.

The kid is 21 years old and 165 pounds. I know that people say that he has a rubber arm, yet you just do not have him throw that many pitches at this age.

Sabean and Bochy are old school fools trying to burn a kids arm out. They could have removed him after the sixth inning. He should be on a strict pitch count.

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Overreaction

I think he'll be fine. He was still throwing 93-96 mph in the 7th and his curve was maybe even a little stronger than it was earlier in the game. He's been on a strict pitch count, which they've slowly increased, from 85ish in minor league starts, to 100 in his first major league start to now apparently 110ish.

Seriously, I think you're overreacting here.

by jponry on May 12, 2007 1:46 AM EDT reply actions

Me too

I completely agree with you here about the reaction to 112 pitches being an overreaction.

Let me tell you what would have gone into my own evaluation of whether to allow Tim to continue (a sentiment with which I agreed):

First, he had three 20+ pitch innings. I see this as a negative, as longer innings usually put more stress on the arm.

Second, one of the best indicators that a pitcher is fried is that his velocity noticeably drops. This wasn't the case with Tim.

Third, Tim gave no visible signs of laboring. Pretty much the opposite, really.

Fourth, Brian Sabean has said that Tim is comfortable throwing 135 to 140 pitches, numbers Tim himself mentioned after the game. While I was surprised that the Giants extended Tim this quickly, I expected them to do so eventually and was surprised that they did it last night only because they had been SO overly protective with him in the minors (where he only twice threw as many as 90 pitches). It is conceivable that even as a rookie Tim might average seven innings per start without taxing his arm.

Fifth, Tim's curve was as sharp as it had been all game. And he didn't appear to have any problem throwing it, even when Bengie Molina called for it as many as three times in a row.

Sixth, it was nice that the Giants showed the extra confidence by allowing Tim to finish the seventh inning, although Bochy said after the game he wouldn't have allowed Tim to go beyond that final batter even if he didn't retire him to end the inning. And I liked the confidence of calling for the curve on 3-2. Once a guy has two strikes, that curve is tough to lay off -- especially for a righthanded batter.

by sharksrog on May 12, 2007 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh Brother!!

This could have gone in one of the two other Lincecum related diaries already on the board.
Tim Lincecum is 22 yo. Will turn 23 on June 15.
He regularly threw >120 pitches/game in college, once got up to 146.......and threw long toss the next game.
This isn't the first month of the season. He's been starting down in the minors for a month throwing up to 100 pitches. If he's not ready to throw 112 pitches now, he never will be.

I think it's great that Bochy left him in there to leave on a positive note and give him a chance to win the game which he did. Great confidence booster. No looking back now!

by DrBGiantsfan on May 12, 2007 1:49 AM EDT reply actions

According to Jon Miller

According to Jon Miller, Tim has thrown as many as 190 pitches in a college game (and, yes, then thrown long toss the next day). The most I had read about was a documented 165-pitch effort during his sophomore season.

The 146-pitch effort you refer to came just over a year again in Tim's two-hit, 18-whiff shutout over UCLA. That 146th pitch was clocked at 95 which indicates that Tim's arm wasn't suffering fatigue.

And, yes, it was reported that Tim threw long toss from foul pole to foul the next day. I just don't think his motion puts that much pressure on his arm. Additionally, Tim is VERY flexible.

by sharksrog on May 12, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

On the 7th day

Tim played long toss! Man alive. Fairly routine for all pitchers to play long toss after a start.

by Con on May 12, 2007 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions

The impression

The impression I got was that it was uncommon for a pitcher to comfortably play long toss foul pole to foul pole the day after throwing 146 pitches in a start.

by sharksrog on May 13, 2007 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Disagree

Seems odd he was on a strict 100 pitch count on Sunday yet he was allowed to throw 112 pitches on Friday. It will be interesting to see if he's allowed to throw 120 next week or whether there's a pitch count in place like there was on Sunday. Regardless of his age he's never had to face the grind of a MLB season. It's a whole different beast than pitching every 7th day in college from Feb. to May!

by Con on May 12, 2007 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions

My guess

My guess is that Tim will likely throw no more than 112 pitches in his next start and likely will throw fewer. But, yes, I do expect him to be gradually let out. If the Giants beging to overuse Tim, his velocity will almost certainly begin to decline toward the end of his outing, signalling it is time to cut back on his pitches.

Regarding college, often when he started games seven days apart, he was used in relief in between. Last season he had three relief outings of an inning each, one of a third of an inning and one of two frames.

Mostly Tim started on four or five days' rest, and once he pitched with only three days' rest between starts.

Tim threw 125 1/3 innings in about a 17-week period during his junior year (2006). That would work out to about 190 innings over a 26-week major league season.

by sharksrog on May 13, 2007 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Risky

So you're going to let a guy who threw 104 1/3 innings his sophomore year and 125 1/3 innings in his junior year...go out and throw 190 innings in what would be his senior year?

by Con on May 13, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

You wanted him

called up to the bigs right?
Then he has to be able to pitch like a big league starter. That means actually pulling his weight.

If youre going to put him in the rotation he has to be able to throw 112 pitches, otherwise he needs to be in the pen.

Im not saying work him that hard every outing but you cant afford to have a pitcher in your rotation who cant ever go that high, ever. If thats the case than he needs to be in AAA or the pen.
If youre going to carry a half-starter he better be a good one, like the recent era Maddux. And Maddux usually makes his 90 pitches last quite awhile as efficent as he his

by nms on May 12, 2007 3:03 AM EDT reply actions

112

Dumb. Fighting for a playoff spot or a playoff win, that's one thing. But if you regularly put pitchers past the ~105-pitch mark they WILL experience a sharp increase in injuries. All so you can avoid one inning from your bullpen.

by ian on May 12, 2007 3:45 AM EDT reply actions

I don't like high pitch counts

I don't like high pitch counts. At the April 26, 2005 game both the Giants fan I was sitting with and I wanted Jason Schmidt removed for a pinch hitter after he had thrown 101 pitches. Felipe Alou elected not to pinch hit for Jason, and Schmidty wound up throwing 130 pitches on the night without even completing the inning. Throw pitch 101 that night, Jason was pitching well on the season. After pitch 101 that night, he pitched poorly the rest of the year.

To make matters worse, that was the night Armando Benitez suffered his serious leg injury that forced him to miss most of the 2005 season. He has never really been the same pitcher since.

So in one night, the Giants effectivelyu lost their two best pitchers for the rest of the season. In part because Felipe Alou wasn't wise enough to remove Schmidty earlier, even though he had the opportunity to pinch hit.

Now obviously if Tim hurts his arm, I will wonder about last night. But right now I think it was a wise thing to try. And I think we will see higher pitch counts from Tim in the future. If he velocity begins to drop, I would certainly recommend taking him out. If not, I usually wouldn't recommend it.

by sharksrog on May 12, 2007 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions

You say

You say that if a pitcher consistently pitches beyond the 105-pitch mark, he WILL experience a sharp increase in injuries. Yet which starter is considered to be the most durable of all major league starters, not having missed a single start in his nearly seven full seasons? Barry Zito. And Barry has AVERAGED over 105 pitches per start since entering the league.

I think it depends on the pitcher and on the nature of the 105 pitches.

by sharksrog on May 13, 2007 4:15 AM EDT up reply actions

112...

really isn't much to fuss about, as long it's an every start thing. It's not like he 20 and still developing, what you see is what you get with Lincecum.

Cole Hamels, who unlike Timmah actually has had arm trouble and is younger than Timmah, has made 8 starts this season and has exceeded 106 pitches in all but two of those and has thrown 110 pitches 5 times...there don't seem to be any complaints about that, nor should there be.

Before anyone says Mark Prior...Baker would routinely leave him for meaningless innings and let him throw 125+ pitches (in the last 2 months+playoffs alone, Prior NEVER threw less than 110 pitches and hit 130 FIVE TIMES)...as long as the Giants don't do that (wouldn't put it past them), Timmah will be OK.

No dude, Metsin07

by uga007 on May 12, 2007 3:58 AM EDT reply actions

your wrong about Hamels being younger

He's 23 not 22. Lincecum is 7 or 8 months younger.

by Bravesin07 on May 12, 2007 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Response

I don't worry too much about pitch counts. It's an individual thing with every pitcher and not something that you can apply a set rule to.

Generally speaking, I worry a lot more about a guy's mechanics falling apart as he gets tired leading to stress on the arm . As long as Lincecum (or any young pitcher) is able to maintain his mechanics, then he's minimizing his risk for injury. This goes whether he's at 10 or 110 pitches.

In the case of Prior, it wasn't that the pitch counts were necessarily excessive - but they were excessive for him. I think Dusty just ran him out of gas physically, which led to mechanical problems leading to the arm getting slagged. This would account for why a pitcher with "perfect" mechanics such as Prior ended up falling apart - he lost those mechanics.

Mind you, some of this is just theory, but it does seem to make sense to me.

by mrkupe on May 12, 2007 6:46 AM EDT reply actions

interesting

that does make a lot of sense. Very interesting insight.

by Team Moneyball on May 12, 2007 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

When 112 pitches doesn't equal 112 pitches

Too many folks are caught up in the total number rather than the actual situation.

If a pitcher throws 112 pitches and only faces three to five batter in each inning, that's different than when a pitcher throws 112 pitches because he labored through a big inning or two.

If a pitcher throws 112 pitches and is obviously tired and losing control toward the end of his stint, that's not the same as a when a pitcher throws 112 pitches and is in the same form as he was when the game started.

If a pitcher is recovering from an arm injury and throws 112 pitches, that's different that when a pitcher with a history of durability throws 112 pitches.

If the Giants had scored their runs before the seventh inning, I agree that it's better to play it safe and pull Lincecum after the sixth. But given what we know about Lincecum I don't see any problem with him throwing 110-120 pitches in a close game.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on May 12, 2007 12:08 PM EDT reply actions

Incidentally

Incidentally, I think Tim DID have three innings in which he threw over 20 pitches in the inning.

by sharksrog on May 12, 2007 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

meh

I didn't get the game so I don't know, but it seems a bit unnecessarily risky to leave him out there given that his velocity was diminishing so much in his first start. I'll come right out and say that if any pitcher loses that much velocity in that short of time that I'm going to be extra special careful his next time out.

by limozeen on May 12, 2007 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

Good point

You make a good point. Except that Lincecum still hit 96 mph in the seventh inning. This may have actually been HARDER on his arm (and probably was), but just over half his last 50 pitches were curves -- after he had thrown just five hooks on his first 62 pitches.

by sharksrog on May 13, 2007 4:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Just wondering...

If we had 11 fingers and 11 toes, would we only be worried when a pitcher went over 110 pitches? The only reason 100 is some sort of benchmark is that we use a base-10 number system, and a number like 100 seems like a round number.

/insert Antonio Alfonseca joke here.

by Grant on May 12, 2007 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

Bred For This

Lincecum's delivery is conditioned just for this sort of situation. The giants should take advantage of the fact that the sacred 100 pitch marker can thankfully be ignored because his arm and body are prepared to handle much more than your average pitcher.

Its very difficult to take a guy who has spent his entire life throwing 80 pitches a game and expect him to throw 110.

But its very easy to take a guy who has spent his entire life throwing constantly and perfecting his delivery so that he can withstand an increased pitch count (aka how pitchers used to be built).

So while in the 70's he would have just been another durable young arm, today his durability makes him considered a freak of nature.

by jlost284 on May 12, 2007 2:40 PM EDT reply actions

i guess but

Guys like Livan Hernandez and Carlos Zambrano were considered to have rubber arms as well. Livan is toast now after years of overused and Zambrano might not be that far away.

If a guy can withstand a high workload thats great, but I wouldn't rush to get him going 130+ a night. Most guys who do that break down, the rest will eventually break down.

Jack Cust is this year's Marcus Thames

by Team Moneyball on May 12, 2007 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions