Adam Dunn Prospect Retro

by John Sickels on Apr 9, 2007 3:25 PM EDT in News

Adam Dunn was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the second round of the 1998 draft, out of high school in New Caney, Texas. He was considered a possible first round talent, but a football scholarship to Texas scared some teams away; the Reds signed him and agreed to let him play football, but Dunn dropped the gridiron quickly and turned to baseball full-time. Dunn hit .288/.404/.424 in 34 games for Billings in the Pioneer League, showing strong plate discipline. I would probably give a similar player a B- or something nowadays. . .he was toolsy, fast and strong, but considered a bit raw although his plate discipline was looking decent already.

Moved up to Class A Rockford in 1999, Dunn hit .307/.409/.476 with 11 homers, 46 walks, and 21 steals in 313 at-bats. His OPS and SEC marks were strong, and I gave him a Grade B+ in the '00 book. He was definitely more polished than expected with the bat, and his power/speed combination was highly intriguing.

Dunn spent 2000 with Dayton in the Midwest League since the Reds were without an advanced A-ball affiliate. He hit .281/.438/.469 in 122 games, with 100 walks, 16 homers, and 24 steals. I left him a Grade B+ in the '01 book, noting that the grade was "if anything, too conservative" and saying that he looked like a Seven Skill player.

Dunn began '01 in Double-A, hitting .343/.449/.664 in 39 games, with 12 homers. Promoted to Triple-A, he hit .329/.441/.676 with 20 homers in just 55 games. Moved to the majors, he hit .262/.371/.578 in 66 games, with 19 homers, emerging at age 21 as one of the premier young power hitters in the game.

Since then, Dunn has been productive but at times frustrating for the Reds and their fans. He's lost his ability to steal bases he showed in the minors. His strikeout rate is very high, but so is his walk rate. His batting average is a career just .245, although his high walk rate keeps his OBP strong. And he's hit 40 or more homers three seasons in a row.

In the minors, he was more of a complete player than he's been in the majors, as he's emphasized power development at the expense of other factors. It will be interesting to see how well he ages, and if he's able to take his home run production to the 50-homer level.

Comparable players include Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew on the Hall of Fame track, Boog Powell and Bob Allison on the very good track, and Jim Gentile on the good-but-early-fadeout track.

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It's strange

It's strange that Dunn has turned out the way that he has; while he obviously hasn't been a bust, I'm surprised he hit for such a high average at every stop, and then displayed a complete inability to do so at the major league level.

It's also odd that he gave up stealing bases; he was a 20/20 threat when he entered the league, stealing 19 in his first full season, then never stole more than 8 thereafter.

Why is it that he's become a relatively one dimensional power hitter?

by Pawtucket Pat on Apr 9, 2007 4:47 PM EDT reply actions

Dunn

It's a long, long way from hitting in the minors to hitting in the bigs. Just ask Brandon Larson.
Dunn has become more of a slugger in the bigs; while his OBP has dropped 45 pts from the minors, his SLG has only dropped 12. This could easily be a function of managers (Bob Boone, Dave Miley, Jerry Narron are all pretty worthless) and hitting coaches seeing a BIG GUY, thinking he's only a slugger, and trying to turn him into one.
I think the same may go with SBs. His career average is 75%; since the beginning of the '03 season, he's an excellent 27 for 32. Maybe the Reds just aren't sending him enough. (That being said, the year he stole 19 he was also caught 9 times, which is below the break-even point. So maybe he's not a "20/20 threat".)

by sidnancy on Apr 9, 2007 5:45 PM EDT reply actions

Hasn't he . . .

. . . also gained a bunch of weight? That wouldn't neccessarily mean anything vis a vis striking out or an inability to hit for average, but it might explain the higher ISOs and the fact that he's stolen progressively fewer bases as time passed.

Where Anne hath a will, Anne Hathaway.

by woodstein52 on Apr 9, 2007 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep...

he's lost alot of the lean athleticism he had as a prospect IMO.

Right now he really deserves his nickname. I remember when he first came up he was a huge guy with power and speed that could play good defense. Now he's a power guy who has flashes of speed and some terrible defense.

I really think Dunn could have been so much more than he's been in the majors.

by SenorGato88 on Apr 9, 2007 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I also

chalk part of it up to his home ballpark the last few years. Those dimensions are so tempting, and there's less upside to stealing bags there, even at a 70% success rate.

by Yakker on Apr 11, 2007 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Dunn vs. Bruce

I would be very interested to know how Jay Bruce's minor league track record to date compares with Dunn's (as well as Austin Kearns, for what its worth).

by JakeFree on Apr 10, 2007 11:27 AM EDT reply actions