Kei Igawa Crystal Ball

I say he'll have a horrible career

that's just my take

by sagecoll on Apr 9, 2007 2:32 PM EDT reply actions

Fairly accurate

But I'm not sure I see him winning 18 in a season, even with the Yankees lineup. But still, I think that's about how he'll do.

"What you're forgetting is that you need at least three DWIs before you're considered a 'dominant' drunk driver." (limozeen)

by drjayphd on Apr 9, 2007 2:37 PM EDT reply actions

I think this is a pretty optimistic, but fair, CB and I am a Yanks fan. The thing about Igawa that was so troubling/heartening at the same time in his first start was that it was so clear what the cause for his poor performance was. He had no command of his breaking pitches. Most of them weren't even close. Thus, hitters could easily sit on his mediocre fastball and did. Now, this could go one of two ways: he might just have bad command of thes pitches and this will plague him for the rest of his career or he might just have had an off night in which case I think he will be fairly productive since even while they were sitting on the fastball, hitters weren't making very solid contact against him.

by itshissong on Apr 9, 2007 2:47 PM EDT reply actions

re:

that 2008 year would put him in the top 10 of AL pitchers. the crystal ball has him winning 100 MLB games. I'd say it's a pretty optimistic crystal ball.

The House That Dewey Built http://www.deweyshouse.com

by SmokeyJoeWood on Apr 9, 2007 2:48 PM EDT reply actions

I think this guy will stink

Your giving him to much credit. He has no fastball at all and his slow stuff is all over the place. I didnt see him throw to many strikes with offspeed stuff the other day. I say his hits to IP is terrible and finds himself labeled an Irabu mistake by the end of the year. and The BOSS flips his lid by years end that they paid a total of 45 million for this bum. No chance in hell he wins 18 games in any season here. And will be lucky to stay on the team next year.

by Maxima231 on Apr 9, 2007 3:42 PM EDT reply actions

Videos

I watched several video's of Igawa back when we first got word that he was available and there were suggestions the Giants might be interested. I found him to be very frustrating to watch. He obviously has talent, but as mentioned, his command of virtually everything was very poor. He threw a pitch in the dirt almost every batter. Lots of walks, lots of high pitch counts. I'm glad the Giants didn't sign him. Of course, the Zito signing could be a worse contract even if Zito is a better pitcher!

by DrBGiantsfan on Apr 9, 2007 4:02 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting Stat

From his first start, they said on Baseball Tonight he did not produce a single swing and a miss on his offspeed pitches. That is horrendous.

This is one of the more shocking CB's John has done.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by HuskerBob on Apr 9, 2007 4:11 PM EDT reply actions

that

is kinda decieving becuase he wasnt throwing the offspeed stuff for a strike and the hitters were sitting fastball and didnt swing at the breakingball/change very often at all.

i think it was a little case of the jitters, as his command/control and slider looked much better in spring

by bmxstreetrider86 on Apr 9, 2007 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Igawa...

I personally think that is a bit optimistic for him. You may be right, but I personally think the guy sucks. From what I've seen, he has poor fastball velocity that sits up in zone, inconsistent command, a nice changeup but overall...pretty mediocre secondary stuff. He seems to have trouble throwing his secondary stuff for strikes more than his fastball.

by Plus Plus Fastball on Apr 9, 2007 6:40 PM EDT reply actions

Disaster

Kaz Ishii debuted in the majors at age 28 and had a pretty solid season. Ishii was able to get some swing-and-misses off of what was, at the beginning, a fairly good curve. Even with that pitch, however, he struggled hugely with his command and eventually collapsed.

How is this guy better?

To go an entire start without one swing-and-miss is horrendous. I would put this CB at about the 80-85%. My guess is that Igawa will be down in Columbus by mid-May with a return sometime in June.

I defend the Pedro for Delino trade.

by Nolan on Apr 9, 2007 9:57 PM EDT reply actions

Kaz Ishii and Kei Igawa....

....are two distinct pitchers. The fact that Kaz Ishii got swing-throughs (with an entirely different arsenal) and Igawa doesn't does not mean Igawa is worse by transitivity.

Why does everyone have so much trouble not tying all Japanese pitchers together? No one would reason that Billy Wagner gets swing-throughs on his fastball but Tom Glavine doesn't, ergo Wagner is better than Glavine. It doesn't seem that difficult to understand that arsenals and career trajectories differ just as much across foreign pitchers as they do "domestic." Yes, you can find systematic differences between the two (like "pitching backwards," etc), but these group similarities don't also lower group variance (or else all American pitchers would be the same, starting hitters with fastballs, no?)

I'm sorry to complain about this, but it's starting to drive me crazy. Yes, Kei Igawa probably sucks, but it has nothing to do with how he looks versus Kaz Ishii.

by bleedjaxblue on Apr 9, 2007 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Disagree

I certainly don't need to be lectured as to the fact that Japanese players (and people) vary just as much as other groups (though this may not actually be true). I think we just disagree as to how similar Ishii and Igawa are. From my perspective, you've got two lefties, of similar age, neither with a particularly good fastball, both relying mainly on off-speed pitches and both debuting in MLB at the same point in their career. The difference between the two, as I argued earlier, is in their performance and execution. Ishii made more players swing and miss - obvious from his k/9 in Japan - than Igawa does - as also evident from his k/9 in Japan. I think this all pretty much supports what I wrote: they're largely similar yet, in one crucial area, distinct and, therefore, one can be predicted to pitch worse than the other.

I defend the Pedro for Delino trade.

by Nolan on Apr 9, 2007 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Ishii....

....sat around 92-93 in his first season, maxing out as high as 94, which, from my understanding, is not close to Igawa's velocity. Though I only saw the highlights of the game, my understanding is that Igawa relies largely on a change-up, while Ishii's change was borderline unusable (he threw it only as a show-me to righties, and usually as a "very tip of the outside corner or bust" pitch). His curve was instantly compared to Zito's as "one of the best in the game," though it was much sharper and quicker than Zito's.

Meanwhile, Ishii has only put up BB/9's below 4.00 three times in 15 professional seasons (and never in America). His first two years with the Dodgers (when he was most successful) his BB/9s were 6.19 and 6.18. In the four years Igawa has thrown more than 100 innings his BB/9s are 2.28, 2.53, 2.43 and 3.13. Not that similar to Ishii's.

So, they are roughly the same age at coming over (Ishii 28, Igawa 26). Of course, when ANY Japanese player posts, he will be relatively old, so that doesn't seem like a great comparison. Furthermore, though Ishii was older, he had enjoyed more success recently in Japan, while Igawa was clearly in decline.

Ishii has a bad fastball NOW, but he didn't when he came over. His pitching style wasn't "off-speed" at all, with a sharp curve and a good fastball for a lefty. Igawa seems like a junkballing, soft-tossing lefty.

I'm sorry, but I just don't see a comparison.

by bleedjaxblue on Apr 9, 2007 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it's a little optimistic....

BUT I want to see him in warm weather. He has sh*t for control, but he was K'ing guys in the spring.

His problem right now is that everything is FLAAAAT. Everything this guy threw hung in his first start. Once it gets warm, I could see him settling down and pitching better but not great.

by SenorGato88 on Apr 9, 2007 10:07 PM EDT reply actions

You mean Scranton Wilkes-Barre!

Hello Nolan,

It's understandable you said Columbus because the Yankees' AAA team for the last decade or two (maybe longer - I'm not sure) had been the Columbus Clippers, but recall that the Clippers are now the Nationals' AAA team, I believe, while Scranton Wilkes-Barre is the Yankees' new AAA team, at least until Allentown becomes their permanent AAA team, if I recall correctly (I don't think that will be until 2009.)

Regarding Igawa, I thought the hype was greater than the actual pitcher, though it is only one start, but I think all the hype (most of it being deserved to this point) for Matsuzaka boosted the hype for Igawa that he was a comparable, or close to comparable, pitcher to Matsuzaka, and I don't think that's the case at all from what I have read and seen. I know the Indians were interested in both, but I'm glad that they didn't win the bid on Igawa, as I thought he wasn't worth what the Yankees paid for him.

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Apr 9, 2007 11:07 PM EDT reply actions

actually...

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre is, I believe, expected to remain the Yankees' AAA team after their 2-year contract is up. the new team in Allentown (the Lehigh Valley - shudder - "IronPigs") is becoming the Phillies AAA team in 2008 (or at least that's when the stadium is scheduled for completion).

Philly is currently using the former Nats farm team in Ottawa which became vacant when the Nationals took over in Columbus as you said.

by perfectdepth on Apr 10, 2007 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the info.!

Hello perfectdepth,

Thanks for the info. - greatly appreciated! Yes, it seems like I got the Minor League affiliations confused; I think it was because the Yankees were looking for a new AAA affiliate closer to Manhattan, and I think had considered Allentown at one time, but that's no longer the case.

"Lehigh Valley IronPigs"? An interesting name, to say the least. :-)

Again, thanks for the info.!

Take care and have a great day!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Apr 12, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

He still sucks guys

He is going to get creamed if he doesnt throw his offspeed pitches for strikes. Or somehow generate some swing and misses with any of his pitches. Thats it. Compare him to whoever. But as we all have stated. This guy better do those 2 things quick or he will be fetching coffee for the Boss by June, answering to the name Fat Toad.
For what this guy is getting paid, so far after 1 start, he maked Dice K look like a bargain.

by Maxima231 on Apr 10, 2007 12:19 AM EDT reply actions

If

he pitches like he did the other night he wont be getting 30 starts this year. He was horrible. Hopefully it was just a bad day, but it looked more like he is just a bad pitcher.

by nyy601 on Apr 10, 2007 4:40 AM EDT reply actions

Not good

This is one of the worst crystal balls I've seen. My advice would be to delete it from the page and when people ask about it, deny it ever existed.

You posted he would have a 1.21 WHIP in 2008. Let me say that again. YOU POSTED HE WOULD HAVE A 1.21 WHIP IN 2008.

by AP on Apr 10, 2007 7:36 AM EDT reply actions

DURRRRR

lets make judgments off of one bad start durrrr

by PooNani on Apr 10, 2007 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Thank you.

It's one start.

In April.

In cold weather.

for his Major League debut.

A wee bit early to be forecasting how his next decade in baseball will turn out, right?

by craig3410 on Apr 10, 2007 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Too Optimistic

Igawa doesn't have the stuff to be an above-average starter at this level, and he will wilt under the NY microscope.

At the time I considered this to be the absolute worst signing of the offseason, and I stand by that. It reeked of desperation by the Yanks to try and counter the Dice-K signing, but this bum can't hold Matsuzaka's jockstrap.

by eazyb81 on Apr 10, 2007 5:47 PM EDT reply actions

CB seems fairly optimistic

But rather than predict utter disaster, I'm going to make a prediction that he's bad, but not awful this year and finishes with an ERA around 5. He's just nor in the right situation to have poor command, and while his stuff is apparently good (except for, you know, in his only ML start), it won't be enough to save him. But who's to say he doesn't stick around on MLB rosters as a Sydney Ponson-before-he-was-god-awful type? Meh. 150 IP, 5.10 ERA, first against the wall when the revolution (read: Hughes) comes.

by mraver on Apr 11, 2007 12:51 AM EDT reply actions

In defense of the crystal ball...

As to not pile on, John Sickles is not the only one who thinks Igawa will initially be closer to Nomo than to Irabu. Bill James has Igawa going 16-2, 3.44, 1.22 in 2007. That makes the 13-10, 4.50, 1.31 seem down right reasonable. I don't believe he will be quite that good and I think James is off by a mile, but at least it shows Sickles was not alone in his optomistic prognostication.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7794&position=P

by jp1 on Apr 11, 2007 8:44 AM EDT reply actions

Walk rate

I don't know about the rest of the project (he could win 18 games with the Yanks next season. RJ did it with a 5.00+ ERA) but the walks seem very low to me. Igawa seems like a guy who will walk a lot of batters, regardless of success. Remember: even Tom Glavine, your mom's control pitcher, walked over 90 a season (and it was in a good season!).

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 11, 2007 1:26 PM EDT reply actions