And no, I'm definitely not a Lincecum basher.

3 BBs in 5 AAA IP is definitely something Lincecum can and should work on - he might do well at AAA with that weak command, but he'll likely find the going much tougher in the Majors, where 5-6 BBs in 5 ML IP would be likely at this point.  I don't think you can consider that to be good no matter who it is or how good his stuff is.

Certainly not a bad first AAA outing for Lincecum, but far from conclusive that he'll see SF too soon (I'd give him a month or two at this point in AAA before even considering bringing him up.)

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great Easter!

I can see your argument; your argument involving Miller is similar to one pedrophile has made that has convinced me more to support the argument that Miller should start 2007 in the Majors, not the Minors.

However two reasons why I still think Lincecum should start in the Minors:

1. Lincecum doesn't have much of a track record in regards to professional ball - he had all of 8 starts in 2006, 2 at SS-A and 6 at High-A.  Miller, by comparison, has made 77 starts (79 appearances overall) in the Minors.  Now, granted, Lincecum was a college draftee, versus Miller being a HS draftee, and Lincecum has had a higher K rate than Miller; however, Miller's overall command and command of his breaking stuff is considerably better than Lincecum's at this point, thereby enabling Miller to have an easier transition of adjusting to the Majors at this point because Miller isn't likely going to beat himself, whereas Lincecum could (yes, his stuff is great, but every pitcher is bound to make mistakes at the ML level - is it better to give up solo HRs or 2, 3, or 4-run HRs?)
2. As I mentioned above, very few pitchers jump straight from college to the Majors; even Mark Prior, who had better overall command, better command of his offspeed stuff, and some might argue, even better quality pitches than Lincecum, not to mention cleaner mechanics, spent a month in the Minors, so I don't see why Lincecum can't do the same.  After all, it's not like the Cubs had better options than Prior at that time either.

One final point regarding Miller and Lincecum:  As was mentioned above by bleedjaxblue, if Miller or Lincecum shows that he's not ready for the Majors after you release Byrd or Ortiz, what do the Indians or Giants do then?  I don't know about the Giants' case, but in the Indians' case, they'd probably go to one of Carmona, Slocum, or veteran Jeff Harris to fill that fifth spot.  If they really wanted, they could try Jason Davis again in the 5th starter role (but I doubt they'd do that, as they're hopeful Davis finds a niche in the bullpen.)  

The main point is this:  The organization is protecting itself in the case that the young pitcher who looks to be ready isn't totally ready, which does happen from time to time (look at Zach Greinke, for one example) - you let a veteran go who you know can hold down the spot in place of a talented rookie and that rookie falters, then you've got to try to scramble to find another viable option (a Plan B) because you can't get the veteran back, and coming up with a viable Plan B isn't always easy to do, especially as the season is underway.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

Granted, you can't ignore Lincecum's 3 years of college experience, but again, most college hitters will never become professional hitters - in fact, in a recent thread (within the last 4-6 weeks or so,) we were discussing what level of competition most college programs would be at.  I think most agreed that most college programs would be around Low-A to High-A in difficulty - again, that's a long ways off from ML hitters, so if Lincecum is walking an average of 5/9 IP, and that was after he had a better year in his final year, it shows he still has work to do in honing his command, and again, you can work on your offspeed stuff more readily in AAA than you can in the Majors because winning is most essential in the Majors - there is no development time there (unless you are a franchise who loses year after year, like the Pirates or Royals have done recently and have gone through several rebuilding periods.)

What I mean by "beat himself" - Miller isn't as likely to walk the bases loaded as Lincecum is; both will likely give up a few HRs here and there; which is more damaging to a team, a solo shot or a grand slam?  That's why I made that argument.

I'm not saying that the Indians aren't considering the dollar amounts; it's likely they are, but from what I have heard and read, if Miller excels in AAA, they'll bring him up, no matter what the time table is.  That could just be talk, but they know that 2007 is a very important year due to the 3 impending FAs, so if they truly feel Miller will be a difference-maker, I highly doubt the Indians are going to let an earlier year of arbitration stand in their way of getting better.  Besides that, the Indians have had recent success of signing some of their best players to early contracts that bypass arbitration anyway, so that really wouldn't be much of a factor anyway in bringing a pitcher up, so I doubt that would affect their assessment of the best time to bring Miller up.

Regarding Greinke, I don't know if his non-baseball issues were the sole reason or even the main reason why he struggled; his H and K rates were good, especially compared to his age relative to league but not spectacular like a Liriano, Santana, Prior, even a Sabathia, etc., so perhaps the Majors was more ready for him than most thought, even before the non-baseball issues came about.  Plus, if I remember correctly and if the sources I listened to were accurate (don't remember who they were since this was a few years ago,) but it sounded like Greinke was a bit stubborn in terms of listening to his pitching coaches and adapting to the ML hitters, which could have also led to his struggles, moreso than his non-baseball issues.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

I agree with you - I think the more weapons you have, the better chance you have of being effective, even dominant, at the ML level.  

I think the elbow injury to Miller could be a blessing in disguise.  Hopefully, he doesn't have any injuries from here on out (serious ones, at least,) but I think that injury helped him become more of a pitcher than a thrower, something Homer Bailey is still trying to figure out.  From reading the comments about his start today, there is suspicion that he is still using his fastball too much because he has more confidence in that pitch than he does his offspeed stuff.  Even the Reds manager (Jerry Narron, I think?) in ST was disappointed that Bailey kept resorting back to the fastball too often, rather than mix in the offspeed stuff.  That is something I think Miller has learned quite well over the last few years (working in the offspeed stuff to complement the fastball and make it more effective,) and partly why he did so well in ST (albeit, small sample size.)

I hope Miller does well in his first AAA start this season, even after the long layoff (AAA Buffalo and AA Akron haven't played a game yet due to the snow, and their seasons were supposed to start on Thursday.)  

I agree that spending a month or two down in AAA isn't a bad thing for Miller either; he's close enough now where he probably could hold his own and help the Indians, but with additional refinement of that changeup and using it more to attack hitters, he could really help the Indians by pitching at an even higher level than he would right now.  

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Take care and have a great day!

Good points - I see the argument you are making.

I think the Indians' main reason they are being cautious with Adam Miller is two-fold:

1. Adam Miller did have the elbow injury a few years ago; the Indians were extra-cautious with him, not allowing him to pitch in the Futures Game, limiting his workload a bit when possible, etc.  Even though there are no official restrictions on his pitch counts, they probably don't want to jump him a level for this reason and for #2.
2. Indians' history has shown that AAA probably would have benefited two of the better Indians' pitchers (in terms of ceiling) over the last 10 years or so:

b. C.C. Sabathia

In 1997, the Indians rushed Wright up to the Majors after only having 8 AA starts and 7 AAA starts, all while averaging nearly 4 BB/9 IP and nearly 10 K/9 IP; in 1997, for the most part, he did quite well; he was the main reason (along with Chad Ogea) why the Indians should have won the 1997 WS.  

However, in 1998, the league adjusted to Wright and he couldn't figure out how to get hitters out, trying to overpower them with his fastball.  It worked in 1997, but not so in 1998, and without continued refinement in his secondary stuff, he couldn't duplicate his 1997 success.  During that 1998 season, he went down with an injury.  

It wasn't until 2004 with Atlanta that he really enjoyed that same level of success, 7 years after first arriving in the Majors.  More time in the Minors might have helped make the necessary adjustments quicker than he did, and outside of 1997 and 2004, the rest of Wright's career really hasn't matched those two years.  More time in the Minors might have enabled him to have a more consistent career.

As for Sabathia, Charlie Manuel wanted CC up with the Indians in 2001, and he got his wish, as CC skipped AAA entirely.  In 2001, CC did quite well as the Indians' #4 starter, partly due to his unfamiliarity to the league and his stuff, as well as the high-powered Indians' offense backing him.

However, when CC moved up to the #2 spot in the rotation in 2002, already, the league was starting to catch up to him and CC had adjustments to make.  Things became more difficult when Colon was traded in June 2002, making CC the #1, arguably before he was ready.  As CC opposed more #1- and #2-type pitchers, he struggled more to adapt, and like Wright, he tried to overpower hitters with his fastball, as well as tried to throw all of his offspeed pitches as hard as he could, making them less effective.

It wasn't until August 2005 when CC finally learned the lesson that he didn't have to throw every pitch as hard as he could, including his fastball, as his fastball was more effective in the mid-90s with late movement than it was in the high-90s with virtually no movement.  That's why CC has been quite good since August 2005, and arguably had his best year in 2006.  

If CC had gotten AAA time in 2001 like he probably should have, the transition to the Majors may have been less difficult for CC because CC might have learned that lesson about not throwing as hard as you can and trying to overpower every hitter with your fastball.  In addition, CC's secondary stuff, such as his changeup, might have been more advanced when CC made it to the Majors, which would have also allowed him to better transition to the Majors, instead of taking 4 years to become the #1 most expected him to become.

I think these are reasons why the Indians are being more cautious with Adam Miller.  Granted, I think Miller has more developed secondary offerings than Wright and Sabathia had at the same stage of development, and by all accounts, Miller seems to understand that lesson of not throwing every pitch as hard as you can to get ML hitters out already - hence, the good groundball ratio to go along with a good strikeout ratio - but the Indians are probably preferring to play it safe because they know these types of #1 pitchers don't grow on trees (for any farm system, not just the Indians,) and they'd rather be more cautious than aggressive for fear of what happened with both Wright and Sabathia.

When the Indians bring Miller up, they want him to become a frontline starter as soon as possible, not after 4 years of pitching in the Majors like it took Sabathia or for just a season like what happened to Wright.  Hopefully, Miller can team up with Sabathia for as long as he is here (all the more reason why the Indians should find a way to resign CC, which I think is feasibly possible based on the contractual situations with most of the rest of the team, including Sizemore, Peralta, Martinez, etc. being signed for a few to several more years) to form a dynamite 1-2 punch.  If CC does leave as a FA after 2008, the Indians want to make sure to the best of their ability that Miller is ready to take over that #1 role in 2009, not just have him occupy it like CC did pretty much from 2002 when Colon was traded until August of 2005, before CC was really ready to pitch like a true #1.  

That's my thinking into why the Indians are being cautious with Miller - "better to be safe than to be sorry; better to be sure than to guess."

Just my 2 cents.  :-)