2007 AL Rookie of the Year

Might be arrested by May

J/K if he starts hitting very good, he could win it. Remember Matsuzaka is considered a rookie though and he dominanted today. It would take a 35 HR season from Dukes to beat him I think.

by Bravesin07 on Apr 5, 2007 9:14 PM EDT reply actions

Yes

Alex Gordon starts the year 1-11. What a bust!

On a separate note, Adam Dunn is on pace to hit 27 home runs of the scoreboard in Cincy this season.

by count sutton on Apr 5, 2007 9:16 PM EDT reply actions

Alex Gordon.

by doublestix on Apr 5, 2007 9:17 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe because

its only 2 HR's in 2 games?

All the knee-jerking going on around here is amazing. First it was ST and now - predictably - it's the first week of the season.

Deep breaths...

by slurve on Apr 5, 2007 9:17 PM EDT reply actions

Yawn

Anyone who has seen Elijah Dukes has come away very impressed.

He has plate discipline, he has power, he has speed.... usually a recipe for success for a ROY bid.

And he was excellent last year before suspension, so this isn't based on 2 games.

If he stays out of trouble, he's a legit ROY candidate.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 5, 2007 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions

5 OF

When Rocco comes back 100% he might not see as much time and Gomez will get ABS too..

by JD Sussman on Apr 5, 2007 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions

True

The question is whether he will get many AB's in the DH spot and how often will Maddon let Baldelli DH to keep his legs healthy.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 5, 2007 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

If you're so tired

go to bed because you seem to be getting slap-happy and delusional. It's been 2 games. Relax. If he's still plugging along at the end of April, come get me.

SNTS

and

DBSSS

by slurve on Apr 5, 2007 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

lmao @ Delusional

I'm delusional for calling a consensus top 20 talent (not prospect) a legitimate contender for Rookie of the Year?

You people f'ing kill me.

I didn't even call him the rookie of the year, just asked why he wasn't getting mentioned by anyone.

I personally think Matsuzaka has the ROY locked up.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 5, 2007 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

BECAUSE IT'S BEEN 2 GAMES!!!

I wouldn't call him a "consensus top 20 talent." Far from it. Many prospect lists touched on how his low ranking wasn't all about his issues. Delusional indeed.

If he keeps it up for another week -m week and half - you'll start to see him getting some mention for ROY.

All you knee-jerk people f'ing kill me too.

by slurve on Apr 5, 2007 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions

games?

What the #### do games have to do with evaluating talent?

He could have played 0 games and been an elite top talent.

Ability to hit for average... check.
Plate discipline... check.
Power... check.
Speed... check.

There hasn't been a single prospect list that has spoken of any flaw in Dukes' game.

Knee-jerk my ass (well... don't, that sounds awful).

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 5, 2007 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

He didn't even have a definate job about a week ago. When was the last time the 5th ranked prospect on the Devil Rays - or any team for that matter - came into the year as a ROY candidate? Get a grip.

by slurve on Apr 5, 2007 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Have you seen Elijah Dukes play?

Seriously...

And being the 5th best in the TB system makes him better than the top prospect in about 20 farm systems in baseball.

It's very well known that the reason Dukes is rated low on prospect lists is due to his suspensions and off the field issues.

As for him having a job... as I said in this thread, he can get AB's in CF, RF, and DH. Most of his starts will come when Baldelli plays at DH or playing for Gomes at DH.

Given 300-400 AB's, he could have one of the best offensive seasons for a rookie this year in the AL. The only other notables getting full-time AB's in the AL are Alex Gordon and Delmon Young.

All I suggested was that he be mentioned as a legitimate ROY contender. It's not absurd, it's not knee jerk, it's a reasonable question. So get off your "it's only X games" soapbox.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 5, 2007 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

You're smokin' the rope

I don't completely disagree with anything you said until the last line.

In the original post - you asked why he wasn't on any polls/articles for ROY. Aaaaaaaagain. It's been 2 games. Hell it hasn't even been 2 games as his 2nd game is still going on as I post this. Last week at this time there was no reason to include him in the discussion as he kind of surprised most by getting a starting gig on opening day. If he keeps it up for a few weeks, he'll start popping up on polls/articles - but there wasn't a very good arguement to include him in the discussion on a larger level until recently.

by slurve on Apr 5, 2007 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions

come on now

5th ranked PURELY based on off field stuff. Everyone, everywhere, is saying he is one of, if not THE top talent in the game. Dukes minus off field = top ten prospects in the entire game

by ScottAZ on Apr 5, 2007 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not

arguing whether the position is warranted - God knows we've beaten that dead horse enough around here. It doesn't matter why he's ranked that low - the fact is that he ranked 5th or lower in DRays system on most respeceted lists. That said - when is the last time the 5th ranked prospect w/o a definate starting job was having his name tossed around heading into the season for ROY. Never. That's when. If he keeps it up for a couple of weeks, he'll start appearing on the polls/articles that yAk is talking about.

by slurve on Apr 6, 2007 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Dude it's...

pretty obvious Dukes has the physical tools AND baseball skills necessary to be a very good major league career.

I see nothing crazy with saying he's a legit ROTY candidate. Before this season I thought he'd be the D'Rays second best hitting OFer if he got a starting job. He did, and I think he'll do just what I think he'll do.

He's a legit ROTY candidate, 5th ranked prospect who got lucky to have a starting job or not. It's not crazy to say Dukes is as physically talented as Young. It's not even crazy to say that his floor as a player is higher, or that he'll end up being a better player because of his skillset.

by SenorGato88 on Apr 6, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Has everyone

gone crazy and lost all of their reading comprehension? WTF!?

I'm NOT saying he isn't good and he isn't a legit ROY the candidate. yAk was complaining that no one has mentioned him yet in a poll or article for the award. Coming into the season, there was no reason to put him up there with Gordon/Dice-K/Delmon because no one even knew if he would be playing in the majors and he didn't rank high on most prospect lists.

Seriously, when was the last time coming into a season that someone ranked in the lower 1/4 of the BA top 100 and garnered any hype for ROY on opening day? It's never happened as far as I can recall. Dukes is good. I know this. It will take a few weeks of him being good for writers to start to really putting him on polls and in articles for ROY consideration. You can't hit 2 HR's in 2 games and sit there and ask where all the love has been for ROY consideration - it will take time both for him to prove his worth and for the media to start latching on to him to hype him is all I was saying. It's been a blink of an eye into the baseball season. He keeps it up, he'll get his due, but it doesn't happen instantaneously. Look how long it took for Hanley to start building any momentum last year.

by slurve on Apr 6, 2007 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

his due

I'm NOT saying he isn't good

(pause)

(rewind)

BECAUSE IT'S BEEN 2 GAMES!!!

I wouldn't call him a "consensus top 20 talent." Far from it. Many prospect lists touched on how his low ranking wasn't all about his issues. Delusional indeed.

my reading comprehension is all right, dude. how's your argument evolution? good?

by wily mo on Apr 6, 2007 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

[Smacks forehead]

JFC!!! WTF is with people disecting EVERYTHING around here trying to pick fights lately? F*ck sake.

What "I" say and what the "consensus" say are 2 different things. For example - BA alluded to his attitude not being the sole reason for his low ranking - interpretation: they weren't completely impressed with other areas of his game/skill set.

I like Dukes talent. In fact I love it. I don't like the problems he has had and their potential to limit his ceiling - but this is neither here nor there as it has nothing to do with WHY he hasn't instantly galvanized the sports community as a ROY candidate.

by slurve on Apr 6, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes BA....

but most fans on here would have said that if Dukes got a starting job out of ST, he would be in the running.

All he's done in the minors is get better as a hitter.

What I'M saying is the only reason he wasn't talked about for ROTY was because he didn't have a job. Once he got the job, he instantly became a guy to watch.

by SenorGato88 on Apr 6, 2007 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

look

that's fine, i understand your argument. all i'm saying is, if you don't understand why people seem to want to pick fights with you, maybe all you need to do is go back and read your posts.

go to bed because you seem to be getting slap-happy and delusional. It's been 2 games. Relax. If he's still plugging along at the end of April, come get me.

(a) you come right out of the gates calling people delusional. piece of advice, because you seem surprised: when you do that, it makes people angry at you.

(b) the clear implication in your first couple of posts was "SNTS" - "small sample size" - we're overreacting to his good performance in a couple of games. wake you if he's still doing it in a month. am i wrong? is that not what this says here? now you're saying sure you think he's good but there's no way the media would have picked up on him before the season because he was pushed down prospect lists and didn't have a locked-in job. if that was really the point you wanted to make all along, i would suggest next time a situation like this comes up, instead of making fun of people and telling them to wait a month and see if the guy's still doing it, try something more like this:

sure he looks awesome, and us prospect nerds know how talented he is. but the default ROY candidates coming into the year are always the guys from the BA top ten who have starting jobs handed to them in camp, and dukes was neither of those things. give people a month to get used to the idea and he'll be on the polls.

instead of

you seem to be getting slap-happy and delusional.

you'll probably get better results. that's all i'm saying.

by wily mo on Apr 6, 2007 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

and just to be clear

this is the post you called delusional:

Anyone who has seen Elijah Dukes has come away very impressed.

He has plate discipline, he has power, he has speed.... usually a recipe for success for a ROY bid.

And he was excellent last year before suspension, so this isn't based on 2 games.

If he stays out of trouble, he's a legit ROY candidate.

anything in there about the polls? i can't find it.

by wily mo on Apr 6, 2007 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions

This post

was in response to a post with the condescending subject line of "Yawn" - I didn't start the fire here.

I'm not talking about me in particular - it seems like the disection of other peoples posts in order to start an arguement is at an all-time high right now, that's all.

by slurve on Apr 6, 2007 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions

yanni

i'd actually say "deep breaths" and "yawn" are about even on the condescension meter, and "delusional" is another notch up (or down, in the metric system). and at any rate i'm not sure how or why you're expecting to get both better reading comprehension and less dissection of your posts at the same time.

by wily mo on Apr 6, 2007 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions

And the

polls that were referenced are in the original post that started the diary. You can find it there.

by slurve on Apr 6, 2007 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions

sure.

he mentioned polls. my point was that you didn't, not until halfway down the thread. that wasn't the part of the post you originally chose to argue with. then you're all indignant, like "where's the reading comprehension? i'm not saying dukes isn't good, i'm just saying he's not on the national radar yet." but five minutes before that you clearly were saying dukes wasn't that good. they weren't imagining it or misreading you.

why not just say "all right, i'm not sure why i said X, my bad, but what i really meant was Y?", instead of giving everybody else a hard time because you fouled up an argument? it's not that big a deal. i've had posts come out wrong before; everybody has. but quit trying to make it everybody else's fault. it's harshing our vibe.

by wily mo on Apr 6, 2007 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions

to elaborate

(and this post of mine is an example of what i'm about to talk about - recursion!) sometimes you read something and your gut feeling is that it's wrong, and so your instinct is to argue with it, so you do - and then later you realize that the thing that was wrong with it was actually not the thing you first chose to argue with, so you have to go back and make a different argument so that you say what you actually meant to say. it happens all the time, and i feel like that's probably what happened to you here - and it just happened to me as well, because this is what i was really trying to say in the post above, instead of talking about how you "fouled up an argument". so i just fouled up my own argument (i told you i've had it happen too). but just say that! don't get all up in everybody else's grill.

by wily mo on Apr 6, 2007 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Aye

I agree, I have been guilty of this - and I'm sure I will be again... but it's not what happened here.

by slurve on Apr 6, 2007 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions

When I'm wrong

I have no problem copping to it. I don't think I'm really in the wrong here.

"but five minutes before that you clearly were saying dukes wasn't that good. they weren't imagining it or misreading you."

This is exactly what I'm talking about. I didn't say one way or the other what I thought of Dukes, let alone did I clearly say I thought Dukes wasn't that good. I was shooting down the notion of "consensus" yAk was trying to pass off because it simply wasn't true - "far from it" as I said.

Harshing a vibe? Maybe you should stay out of exchanges instead of escalating them? Just a thought. Myself, I'm having a few locally brewed beers before heading out to the bars and my vibe is mo betta than good right about now - I highly recommend everyone do the same as it is Friday after all. LeftyAce can smoke his lefties and/or halucinogens under the careful watch of galpal, I can sip my suds and you can do whatever gets you there...

by slurve on Apr 6, 2007 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

case in point...

http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/2/22/214010/483/23#23

by slurve on Apr 6, 2007 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions

i'm not saying you're 100% wrong.

some of lefty's posts were clearly responding to what he thought you were saying rather than what you were literally saying at that point, and he could have done a better job of reading, it's true. but you did sort of change over the argument you were making mid-thread without saying anything about it, and that's going to confuse people. i'm mainly talking about your first two posts, which i've already quoted directly; you've made no real effort to argue that they're saying anything other than what they're saying, which is that "dukes for ROY" is a knee-jerk reaction to two games, wake you when he does it for a month, etc. then the "consensus top 20" post was sort of the transitional period where you started talking about the perceptions of others rather than your own, and that's what you ran with after that.

i know i expect too much context of people but when i say stuff like "you're harshing the vibe" i'm always smiling. i don't actually talk like that.

by wily mo on Apr 6, 2007 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions

The thread is about ROY

In that context, the number of games does matter. Nobody is saying he doesn't have talent, but after just a couple games, let's not go handing him awards just yet. What if Delmon hits 4 HR next week and Dukes doesn't hit any? Will everyone changes their minds? In other words, it's a long season.

by count sutton on Apr 6, 2007 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

handing out awards

no-one is handing out awards to Dukes. All that is being said is Dukes can now be considered a candidate because it looks like he will get regular playing time.

by pedrophile on Apr 6, 2007 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Fair Enough

But the "Alex Gordon...nah" at the beginning does make it sound like 'hand it to this guy and not this guy'.

by count sutton on Apr 6, 2007 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

taken in the proper context

The "Alex Gordon, nah" comment was because nearly every ROY thread this spring has been about Alex Gordon and Delmon Young.

The point of the line was to say that this isn't one of those diaries and we need to consider more players as legitimate ROY options.

Nobody is crowning anyone after a week. But it's equally absurd to eliminate players from the discussion in April because "they are the 5th best prospect in their organization" or "they aren't an everyday player". Bottom line is that he's playing, he's hitting, and he's a young guy with talent coming out his ears.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2007 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Hanley?

Being relatively new to the site, I'm wondering what this thread would have looked like from all you guys last year.

"Oh, Hanley Ramirez will never pan out. Big deal, the guy has 14 SB in his first month and a half. He's a fluke. He'll regress to what he's been showing us."

I'm honestly curious... how did this look a year ago? At what point does Gordon start making you wonder? A month? The All-Star Break? Just wondering.

For the record I think that - whether it is a prospect or established player - even though the season takes a long time to play out, a month-long or two-month long slump is indicative of a performance problem that might have to be corrected before allowing that person to represent a major league team on the field.

Jim Leyland:manager-Ty Cobb:player

by TigerFanInCleveland on Apr 5, 2007 9:38 PM EDT reply actions

ummm

As much as I think Gordon has been overrated in the short-term with some of the projections for him this year, he's FAR from a bust based on 11 AB's.

As I've said in other threads, his K rate was high in AA and I think he'll strike out a ton in the majors this year. Having said that, his power is legit and he's going to drive in runs.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 5, 2007 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

last year we had a couple threads about him. The supporters got hacked. "how can he possibly do better in the bigs than he did in the minors" and other stupid comments.

Who knows what Dukes will do. But because we are excited thinking he will have a big year doesn't mean we are treating him like a SNTS or other acronym. It's because we like him.

If you don't agree, fine.

by pedrophile on Apr 6, 2007 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions

okay

Actually I do think Dukes is just as legit as any other "can't-miss" prospect out there. IMO, we should be fairly optimistic of any player showing they belong in the bigs with a small sample of their performance. However, while we shouldn't write off a poor performer based on a similar small sample size, we need to take the slumps seriously if they extend into a month, maybe two.

So, I'm not ripping the Dukes supporters here. I am questioning the bashing of Dukes based on the idea of SNTS (an acronym I've grown to love, actually!).

Jim Leyland:manager-Ty Cobb:player

by TigerFanInCleveland on Apr 6, 2007 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions

oh yeah

the negatives were not meant for you.

Dukes had all the tools, there was no question there. He was given a job and since he is excelling he will probably keep it.

Do we think he'll hit 162 HR's? Give me a break.

But if he struggled he may lose the job which seriously downgrades him this season. Likewise being hot gives him the job unless he has serious struggles.

by pedrophile on Apr 6, 2007 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Help, please

SNTS?

by Flynn Blake on Apr 6, 2007 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Acronyms

SNTS - Shiney New Toy Syndrome

DBSSS - Death By Small Sample Size

by slurve on Apr 6, 2007 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

AKA

TPSWTHNE = things people say when they have nothing else. ;-)

by Yakker on Apr 6, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I think both

are very legitimate concepts - especially 'round these parts.

by slurve on Apr 6, 2007 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

DiceK

no doubt

by yoda1 on Apr 5, 2007 9:41 PM EDT reply actions

Of Course its Dukes

He's going to hit 161 HR's and will narrowly beat out Dice-K who will have 35 wins, 345k's, and 5 BB's. Gordon is a total bust and will hit below the Mendoza line with absolutely no power.

Gotta love projections based on small sample sizes.

by KCSlayer on Apr 5, 2007 10:53 PM EDT reply actions

projections?

You're the only one in the thread who made a projection.

Congratulations on being sarcastic for no reason.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 5, 2007 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions

"At this pace, he'll overtake Gomes..."

Doh!

by KCSlayer on Apr 5, 2007 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Literacy

That's a PREDICTION of what will happen, not a PROJECTION of statistics.

I'm not projecting any numbers over any period of time like you sarcastically did.

This blog has been overrun by amateur sarcastic jokesters lately... guess we can't talk about any player doing well until May right?

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 5, 2007 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions

sounds like semantics to me

by wildthang on Apr 6, 2007 4:34 AM EDT up reply actions

going to be interesting

Dukes and Matsuzaka definately have the lead start right now though.

by RollingWave on Apr 5, 2007 11:03 PM EDT reply actions

I agree

He hasn't been in the discussion because no one expected him to get PT. But if he's with the big club, you've got the think the DRays are going to get him ABs. I like the number you mentioned earlier of 400, and there's certainly the potential for more if, say, Gomes gets traded or someone gets hurt.

Right now most of the focus has been on Zaka, Gordon, and Young becuase they've got top talent and starting gigs. Dukes is still a darkhorse, IMO, but he definitely worth discussing.

by mraver on Apr 6, 2007 12:44 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah

Me too. We (understandably) handicap the ROY race based upon expected PT. Now, not only does it look like he's going to get the PT, if he's first few games are any indication, he's taken the ball and run with it. And we all know how ridiculously talented he is. So, yes, if Dukes can continue getting playing time, he absolutely should be included in the ROY discussion.

Too bad that discussion, for all intents and purposes, is over. Don't believe me? Turn on ESPN sometime. Were it not for the U.S.-born requirement, they would have elected Matsuzaka President already!

by Yakker on Apr 6, 2007 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Only two games

But a bunch of very good at bats. Nothing cheap about any of his home runs at the stadium, straight away and a laser to left. Both against decent pitchers.

This MLB.TV thing is better than...well, not that but a whole lot of things.

"Strikeouts are good...groundballs are better. Home runs are okay...but walks SUCK!" Mike Caldwell

by Torncuff on Apr 6, 2007 1:23 AM EDT reply actions

Dukes

I am a real supporter of his, and with all the people in the media going out of their way to say how great it is that Josh Hamilton got his life together and came back, I'd rather pull for the guy who got it together sooner, and who just hit two bombs in his first two major league games. Sorry, I'm not going to just dismiss what he did because it was in the first week of the season. If he's clear of the troubles that have plagued him (a tall order, no question), this guy is better than Delmon. More power, more patience, and holds down CF pretty well too. He just looks like he belongs. Let's just enjoy it guys, this isn't Hunter Pence hitting .700 in spring, the games are real now.

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Apr 6, 2007 2:32 AM EDT reply actions

Dukes

has been BRUTAL in CF. Let a few balls drop in front of him and misplayed that ARod hit off of the wall.

His bat has been REAL impressive, though.

by TCapone30 on Apr 6, 2007 7:33 AM EDT reply actions

Quote from ESPN

Not sure which guy it was but they were raving about Dukes. The guy says, "Dukes is tearing the cover off the ball and making an impact in the dugout. His teammates love him."

This is a far cry from last year where the reports were just the opposite.

Kids been moved all around the OF and at 1B, so his fielding will come together, or DH will be his home.

by ChrisRef19 on Apr 6, 2007 8:47 AM EDT reply actions

Last Year

Tamargo ran a frat house and pretty much was an inmate running the asylum. Not a big surprise that Dukes snapped as much as he did, when managers enjoyed starting shouting matches(for no reason, most times) with Dukes.

by The Rocc on Apr 6, 2007 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

most people probably saw this

but there was a pretty good ESPN.com frontpage story on dukes a couple days ago:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2823398

it sounds to me like durham last year was a pretty unhealthy environment for dukes, for reasons that weren't entirely his fault. which, to be clear, is not to say that they were entirely not his fault either. but it seems like more people made an effort to actively antagonize him than to work with him. being in the majors, with more veteran players around, plus most of the guys he got along with from durham (delmon, upton, shields), plus the big-league manager and coaching staff, should be a big improvement.

by wily mo on Apr 6, 2007 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll just say this...

I was at the game last night, and the balls sounded DIFFERENT coming off the bat of Delmon. And, by different, I mean that it sounded like the ball was taking a beating. He also looked very raw at the plate (whereas Dukes looked advanced) and Upton seemed like the best athlete on the field.

The point being, I've seen alot of baseball, and Delmon Young hits the ball harder than just about anybody I've ever seen.

by GuyinNY on Apr 6, 2007 1:03 PM EDT reply actions

the feeling i'm getting

is that all three of those guys are pretty good.

by wily mo on Apr 6, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup

The Rays are gonna be scary good one of the days.

I generally don't listen to Gammo, but had BBTN on last night to see the shots of Greinke's start, and Gammons said that watching the D-Rays in spring training reminded him of watching an NFL combine, the guys are that athletically gifted.

by Yakker on Apr 6, 2007 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Delmon's power

Just look at Delmon's 1st MLB HR to see what kind of power he has...he hit an absolute laser.

Having said that, Dukes hasn't even hit the sweet spot on his bat for his 2 HR's. One was inside and he just muscled it and the other one he was behind the ball and strongarmed it into CF.

If he hits the sweet spot, goodnight baseball.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2007 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Dukes

is going to hit a ton of doubles, but unless he changes his swing, he's not going to hit more than 30 homeruns (which is a lot, but he's got more raw power). His swing is so level, that he doesn't get any elevation on the ball. Both homeruns were lasers, but that's how almost all of his homeruns are.

by Tyler on Apr 6, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Not comparing directly.

But that's pretty much how most of Ryan Howard's HR's are... line drives on a rope into the stands.

Dukes is no Howard, but he's got the strength to turn line drives into HR's.

The reason his HR rate was low in Durham (as most Rays prospect watchers and you know) is that they have a massive wall like the one in Fenway which turns line drive HR's into singles or doubles.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2007 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

ROY

In order, I'd guess the top 5 candidates will be:

D. Matsusaka
D. Young
A. Gordon
E. Dukes
The Field (Wood, Hughes, etc.)

Personally, I feel that Dukes playing time will be limited eventually. The best thing Dice-K has going for him is that he plays for a contender. He'll have the spotlight on him all year long, whereas Gordon, Dukes, Young, etc. all are probably going to be on losing teams. I still LOVE Gordon, and remember that if he goes 4 for 4 the next game, he's hitting .333. It is TOO early to judge by stats alone. Remember that Shelton was on pace to have a monster year last year and ended up in the minors. It's about 162 games folks.

by coochorama on Apr 6, 2007 5:33 PM EDT reply actions