Mike Pelfrey: Thoughts and Community Projection

by John Sickels on Apr 4, 2007 12:45 PM EDT in News Comment 36 comments

A Look at Mike Pelfrey

Mike Pelfrey will take over the Mets fifth starter spot by mid April once the rash of off-days is past. Let's take a look at him, first by beginning with the comment from the book.

For Pelfrey, it all boils down to the breaking ball problem. He has replaced the curveball I saw in college with a slider, and it seems to be working for him. Personally, I'd like to see him get some additional Triple-A time, put the finishing touches on his command, but I say that about almost every young pitcher.

PECOTA is not particularly enamored with Pelfrey. . .comps include some fine pitchers like Jim Clancy, Dan Petry, Freddy Garcia, and Bruce Kison, but also some disappointments like Colby Lewis and Josh Karp. But PECOTA is just one system. Experts like Deric McKamey of Baseball HQ and the various Baseball America folks are more impressed, and my own opinion about Pelfrey is quite positive, although there may be some pro-Midwest bias there in my case.

I would like to do a Community Projection for Pelfrey, see what you guys expect from him. Project:

Games started
Innings
Runs
Earned Runs
ERA
W-L
Strikeouts
Walks
Hits allowed
Homers allowed
Complete games
Shutouts

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When Pedro is ready he goes back to AAA

Games started 19
Innings 111
Runs 69
Earned Runs 64
ERA 5.19
W-L 6-9
Strikeouts 85
Walks 54
Hits allowed 140
Homers allowed 21
Complete games 0
Shutouts 0

by Kanst42 on Apr 4, 2007 12:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey

Games started: 24
Innings: 151
Runs: 68
Earned Runs: 59
ERA: 3.52
W-L: 12-4
Strikeouts: 139
Walks: 67
Hits allowed: 117
Homers allowed: 17
Complete games: 1
Shutouts: 1

Future Fish

by Maverick on Apr 4, 2007 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

More Optimistic

Games started 30
Innings 145
Runs 74
Earned Runs 68
ERA 4.30
W-L 13-8
Strikeouts 95
Walks 45
Hits allowed 130
Homers allowed 8
Complete games 0
Shutouts 0

GB/FB: 1.7

by JDSussman on Apr 4, 2007 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey Projection

Games started - 25
Innings - 151
Runs - 68
Earned Runs - 62
ERA - 3.70
W-L - 9-8
Strikeouts 119
Walks 53
Hits allowed - 157
Homers allowed - 17
Complete games - 0
Shutouts - 0

by benzalman on Apr 4, 2007 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey

Starts: 20
Innings: 105
Hits: 121
Walks: 27
Strikeouts: 55
HR: 6
Runs: 58
Earned Runs: 54
ERA: 4.63
CG: 0
W/L: 7-6

I'm high on Pelfrey but I think he'll have plenty of growing pains. He just doesn't quite miss enough bats yet. Good control and keeps the ball in the park though saves his season.

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 4, 2007 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey ROTY

Games started: 26
Innings: 179
Runs: 70
Earned Runs: 63
ERA: 3.55
W-L: 14-6
Strikeouts: 139
Walks: 67
Hits allowed: 117
Homers allowed: 17
Complete games: 1
Shutouts:0

Pelfrey will show all this season.

by Fair Projector on Apr 4, 2007 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's crazy

179 IP, 117 H? That's just crazy....that's like Pedro in his prime.

I love Pelfrey, but that is just ridiculous.

by BaseballBrain on Apr 4, 2007 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

crazy

Even if it was 171 hits MP would have had an amazing rookie season.

by jaguar2490 on Apr 4, 2007 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very good 1st year

Games started: 23
Innings: 155
Runs: 69
Earned Runs: 61
ERA: 3.54
W-L: 12-5
Strikeouts: 122
Walks: 51
Hits allowed: 111
Homers allowed: 13
Complete games: 1
Shutouts:1

http://sheafaithful.blogspot.com/ aamzing baseball blog

by Ludacrispat26 on Apr 4, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When will we see a Milledge/Pelfrey Crystal Ball?

Just wondering...

~www.nymetshome.blogspot.com

by Fair Projector on Apr 4, 2007 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Milledge done already

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/9/6/164143/1213

If memory serves, this crystal ball was also in the 2006 book.

by Steve F on Apr 4, 2007 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey

Innings: 115
ERA: 4.77
WHIP: 1.42
K: 71
BB:57
ER: 61
H: 106
W-L: 7-5
CG: 0
SHO: 0
HR: 11

by grozzy on Apr 4, 2007 3:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey Projection

Innings: 125
ERA: 4.46
WHIP: 1.39
K: 75
BB: 51
ER: 62
H: 123
W-L: 9-7
CG: 1
SHO: 0
HR: 9

by BaseballBrain on Apr 4, 2007 3:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Strikeouts

I think if you look at other sinkerballers numbers like Lowe or Webb you'll see that Pelfrey might not have as many strike outs as everyone is predicting. Also I'd say Pelfrey is more like Lowe than Webb because Webb has a great curve too. And check out his ST numbers not too many Ks there.

by JDSussman on Apr 4, 2007 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not going to project...

though I like this guy alot less than I used to after watching him pitch more.

I agree with alot of what John has written in his scouting report. In college his fastball was consistently in the mid 90's, but he also had a damn good curveball and changeup to go with it.

Since he's joined the Mets, I've been less impressed with his stuff all around. His fastball isn't as dominating, and the guy has nothing worth talking about as far as his secondary pitches.

I have no idea why he's in the rotation either. He did not impress in Spring Training beyond his ERA IMO. He couldn't K anyway to save his life, and he wasn't inducing GB after GB like I hoped his fastball would.

Honestly, I went from liking this guy alot to thinking he's yet another overhyped NY prospect.

by SenorGato88 on Apr 4, 2007 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ST Stats

He got the spot essentially out of his first two or three starters in ST. He got hammered in his last two starts but that didn't disuade the decision makers.

I think if he locates his fastball, he can at least be league average. Get lots of ground balls and let the defense do the work. I don't think he's going to strike out a lot of batters until he further develops that slider.

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 4, 2007 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed..dead on

by JDSussman on Apr 4, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey

Games started 28
Innings 166
Runs 90
Earned Runs 83
ERA 4.50
W-L 13-9
Strikeouts 156
Walks 54
Hits allowed 155
Homers allowed 13
Complete games 1
Shutouts 1

by nyy601 on Apr 4, 2007 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey

Games started: 29
Innings: 171.3
Runs: 81
Earned Runs: 72
ERA: 3.78
W-L: 15-8
Strikeouts: 168
Walks: 49
Hits allowed: 148
Homers allowed: 18
Complete games: 1
Shutouts: 0

by Terry Ryan Jr on Apr 4, 2007 5:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey

I like him enough to own him in several non-keeper leagues, but I think H/IP below 1 and ERAs below 4 are generous.

by limozeen on Apr 4, 2007 5:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Verlander version 2.0...

Games started: 30
Innings: 186
Runs: 78
Earned Runs: 75
ERA: 3.63
W-L: 14-6
Strikeouts: 147
Walks: 68
Hits allowed: 187
Homers allowed: 19
Complete games: 1
Shutouts: 1

Some people bring the Bible to college...we bring Moneyball.

by uga007 on Apr 4, 2007 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Slider to Curve

Why the switch? Why not both?

by jaguar2490 on Apr 4, 2007 5:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow

some of you guys are really high on pelfrey,
sure his fastball is awesome but he really doesn't have a solid breaking ball at this point.

his changeup isn't exactly great,
but somehow he's going to succeed anyways?

i'll pass on pelfrey this year,
personally.

and why the switch?
in pelfrey's words,
"I knew my curveball wasn't very good, so I was open to suggestions. I think in the long run the slider will be a much better pitch for me."

by god allah star on Apr 4, 2007 6:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Secondary

From everything I've read, and what I saw in ST, Pelfrey's slider is already an average pitch and should become a plus pitch by season's end.

His change has always been a good pitch for him, with a solid MPH difference between his fastball and solid, parachute-like drop. He had a lot of trouble locating it last season, though he has good control and command otherwise so I'd imagine it comes around with some work early on.

Games started: 24
Innings:151.1
Runs: 69
Earned Runs: 62
ERA: 3.69
W-L: 11-5
Strikeouts: 130
Walks: 53
Hits allowed: 139
Homers allowed: 117
Complete games: 1
Shutouts: 0

by nyr2k2 on Apr 5, 2007 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Curve

And as far as the curve, despite Pelfrey's own words, it was a decent pitch. It had good bite, and solid break. Coming out of college it was said to have plenty of potential to be a plus pitch. He never could harness control of that pitch, and it didn't fit in that well with his overpowering fastball and change. Even before he pitched a professional inning, there were rumblings that he'd help himself by learning the slider to better complement his repertoire.

by nyr2k2 on Apr 5, 2007 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

okay,

fair enough,
but a solid changeup and an average slider isn't really exactly fitting for some of the projections people are giving.

he's still learning the slider, tweaking it and making adjustments, don't you think he may have some growing pains? locating it and refining it?

a changeup and a fastball isn't going to do it for him. he needs that slider.

i realize this is rather subjective, but i just don't see a good reason to be so high on him for the year.

by god allah star on Apr 5, 2007 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right

Myself and others might be being overly optimistic, I understand where you're coming from. I'm just in love with his fastball; it's hard as hell and moves all over the place.

by nyr2k2 on Apr 5, 2007 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

JEEBUS!!

117 HRs allowed?

by SenorGato88 on Apr 5, 2007 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

117 homers?

Bert Blyleven is spinning in his grave!

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 5, 2007 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

uuuuum!

haha

he's not dead yet,
but i imagine that's why it was funny.

by god allah star on Apr 5, 2007 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IF he was actually dead....

He might have a shot at the Hall of Fame. Sympathy vote.

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 6, 2007 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heh

Yeah, they'll all be solo shots though ;-).

by nyr2k2 on Apr 5, 2007 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Saw him in college

I watched him at SIU throw a complete game Shutout and he just looked nasty. He's much bigger in person than you realize. As for the curveball, he didn't really throw one in college to be honest. He called it a power curve when I asked him about it so whether one wanted to call it a curve or a slider-its really just semantics because it wasn't truly one or the other. I think he has a year similar to cole Hamels of a year ago. ERA in the low 4's with flashes of more. He has a lot of presence on the mound and he'll drill some guys because he believes in pitching inside. That will serve him well at the highest level.

by rickieweekshof2028 on Apr 6, 2007 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yah

When I think of things that define good pitching prospects for me, "tendency to hit batters" is right at the top of the list . . .

I'll be shocked if his line looks anything like what we saw out of Hamels last year. Pelfrey is the epitome of the power arm who pitches to contact. Hamels on the other hand misses an obscene number of bats.

by mrkupe on Apr 6, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right

Because he meant hitting batters was good. Don't be a jerk, you know he meant that pitching inside will serve him well at the highest level. Show me one pitcher with a big-time fastball who throws inside but doesn't hit people?

And Pelfrey averaged over 9 k/9 his final season in college, even with metal bats. Hardly pitching to contact. He also averaged 10.2 k/9 in the minors last season; nothing truly spectacular, but not pitching to contact.

by nyr2k2 on Apr 6, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey

Games started - 25
Innings - 135
Runs - 79
Earned Runs - 76
ERA - 5.06
W-L - 6-8
Strikeouts - 97
Walks - 63
Hits allowed - 151
Homers allowed - 14
Complete games - 0
Shutouts - 0

by GoldenSpikes24 on Apr 10, 2007 11:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs