Prototypical Starters

The first two things descibe Bonderman yet you have him as a #3??

He k's alot of batters, has a rubber arm, and is consistent.

Not following you whatsover.

Your confusing Bonderman with someone else. He is a fastball/Slider pitcher, with one of the best sliders in the game.

He has logged nearly 800 innings in his career, postseason included.

I really think as of right now there are only 5-6 true aces in the majors.

Johan Santana
Roy Halladay
Jake Peavy
Chris Carpenter
Carlos Zambrano(boderline)
Roy Oswalt
Brandon Webb (boderline, almost perfect #2)

This group are guys who either need more time to prove their ace status or who might just always be that great #2 cus of injuries or whatever reason. Half will, half won't. The ones who don' rach ace status will either be grat #2's or burn out completely. Seems to be the case with these kind of guys.

Sabathia
Verlander
Bonderman
King Felix
Cain
Hamels
Kazmir
Sheets
Schmidt
Lackey
Beckett
Willis(borderline IMO)
Harden
Prior
Burnett
Patterson

Old Slawarts that still have #2-#3 level stuff even at their age.

Smoltz
Schilling
Mussina
Johnson
Pedro
Pettitte
Glavine

Guys who I view as more #3's, or who may have looked like more in the past at one time but really are more or less a #3 on a championship rotation as of now. Or could bump up a level with more time.

Zito
Penny
Jered Weaver
Harang
Robertson
Garland
Buerhle
Wang
Lowe
E.Santana
C.Young
E.Bedard(same with Bedard)
S.Olsen(potential to be solid #2)
J.Vazquez
R.Hill(could be a solid #2 for a few years)
Alot more could be added.

Then you have the D.Cabrera's of the world. Who knows really.

I see amy as ewll as the Jermey Sowers type. First few season plays as a solid #2 and then eventually lowers as time goes on. Cliff Lee as well.

Some guys might have a year or 2 of higher level pitching and then taper off to a average for the rest of their career. I think guys like Buehrle, Matt Morris fit this to a tee.

An ace... I'll leave aside THE ace (Santana) and talk about a normal ace, which to me is a guy who is nearly guaranteed to give you 200+ innings and have an ERA in the low-3's at the highest. Quality starts are the norm and going 7+ innings is almost a prereq to being called an ace.

For a solid #2 pitcher, there has to be ace potential. A good #2 is usually nothing more than an inconsistent ace, someone who can throw an absolute gem one week but maybe gets knocked around for 4 runs the next week. They will throw the gems more times than they throw bad games and usually have ERA's in the high-3 range, but could put up a season in the low-3's as well. A good #2 could also be an injury prone ace who can never establish themselves as an ace because they don't pitch enough innings to carry a rotation.

For the #3 pitcher, this is usually where you get 2 different kind of guys. One gives you consistently above-average starts but is clearly not an ace due to average stuff. The other has the stuff of an ace, but can't command it and just shows flashes of dominance. Should be able to get near 180-200 innings with an ERA in the low-mid 4's.

The #4 pitcher is a guy who is consistent enough to not be replacement value. ERA is probably around 5 most years, but like the #3 the goal is to keep the team in games and squeak out enough wins. Usually a guy with average stuff and above-average command, but probably too hittable.

The #5 pitcher doesn't even need a profile. There's no such thing IMO. Any team using a guy who profiles this low is foolish as the #5 slot should almost always be filled by a young prospect with upside. Any quad-A pitcher or bum journeyman could fit the profile of a #5 pitcher. They probably wouldn't even succeed in a middle relief role and are unlikely to ever have an ERA under 4 in a starting role. Most of these guys are failed prospects anyways, so they profiled as better pitchers in the past.

So onto some examples:

#1 - Roy Halladay/Roy Oswalt/John Smoltz
#2 - A.J. Burnett/Ben Sheets/Kelvim Escobar
#3 - Jarrod Washburn/Brad Radke/Nate Robertson
#4 - Ramon Ortiz/Eric Milton/Scott Elarton

Based on ceiling/potential here are GOOD #1/2/3/4 pitchers:

#1 - Matt Cain/Felix Hernandez/Justin Verlander
#2 - Daniel Cabrera/Rich Hill/Scott Olsen
#3 - James Shields/Jeremy Sowers/Scott Baker
#4 - Chris Sampson/Josh Towers/Claudio Vargas

warning, these guys are probably worse than the guys you think of in each slot, but i think there are only about 5-10 guys most people think of as "#1." and most of the typical "#2" guys are actually among the 15 or 20 best pitchers in baseball, making them #1s in my book. and so on down the line.

1. curt schilling. he's not a dominator any more, but he's still a classic #1. johan is way too good to be prototypical of anything. maybe "prototypical cy young shoo-in."
2. jake westbrook. 200 innings, 4-ish ERA.
3. matt morris. around league average ERA, sometimes you can get 6-7 innings out of him.
4. miguel batista. a good pitcher? heavens no. but this is the kind of guy most teams have kicking around at #4.
5. mike pelfrey. yup, he's been tattooed. a lot of teams use a rotation slot on a guy who's breaking into the majors. sometimes even a very good prospect with strong potential. still, a typical 5th starter won't survive the whole season in the rotation and will probably have a pretty ugly ERA.  that's what i think will happen to pelfrey, he'll get about 70 innings with a 6+ ERA and then be sent down to new orleans for more seasoning.