fantasy trade: valuing minor leaguers

by Galt on Apr 23, 2007 5:03 PM EDT

In a league that counts OPS instead of BA, and classifies LF, CF, RF positions, and allows you to keep a player for four years after they lose ROY eligibility (as a late 20th round pick)

How would you rank the following four? (from a fantasy perspective - knowing I can only have them for the first four full years of their careers)

Andrew Miller
Hunter Pence
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Garza

I have all four of thse guys (along with Morales, Bruce, Rasmus, and Gallardo) and am in the middle of trade discussions. The guy keeps asking for Pence - I think I'd rather part with a pitching prospect and am leaning toward including Miller

edit: Can't really say what I'd be getting b/c someone else in my league reads this blog. Suffice the say, the value of what I'm getting is good - it's just a matter of which prospects I should be trying to make sure I hold.

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tough group

I'd trade Gonzalez and stick with Bruce in RF.

Pence might stick at CF for the Astros and that would make him one of the top CF's in the league offensively.

Keep the pitching because you can never have enough.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 23, 2007 5:06 PM EDT reply actions

what are you getting

for pence? it's hard to value them without knowing the returning player(s).

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Apr 23, 2007 5:09 PM EDT reply actions

can't really say

a competitor is likely reading this.

But it's not as important. I know I'm getting value - minor league prospects aren't involved. This is me trading away potential keepers and getting established players in return so I can better compete for this year.

I'm just trying to get a feel for which players I should definitely try and hold.

The concern I have with Miller is that he apparantly has bad mechanics, and only two pitches

The concern I have with Pence is that everyone still hates his swing, and he doesn't walk much

The concern I have with Gonzalez is that he doesn't walk AT ALL and he really didn't hit for a lot of power - even in Lancaster

The concern I have with Garza is that he got torn up in the majors and will continue to as long as he doesn't build up his offspeed arsenal

by Galt on Apr 23, 2007 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Need to know what you're getting return before I give you bad advice to screw you over.

by fartballs on Apr 24, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Pence

will most likely help you the most this year so I'd use that as your arguement with your trading partner and make him take one of the other guys. Biggio and Burke are both struggling so he could be up even before Biggio gets to hit #3000. We've been hearing about his unusual "swing" forever but all he does is continue to smash the ball.

by tpeichel34 on Apr 23, 2007 6:11 PM EDT reply actions

Pence is great and all...

But he's definitley less of a prospect than Garza. I'd keep Garza first if possible, then Pence, then Miller, then Gonzalez. If he'll take Gonzalez, great, otherwise, Pence is not going to be all everything, but if he gets CF eligibility, that is pretty good.

by coochorama on Apr 23, 2007 6:12 PM EDT reply actions

+1

If I had to trade one of those 4, the choice would be between Miller and Gonzalez. Pence keeps mashing wherever he plays, and the concerns for Garza are very overblown. He's going to look great in that #3 spot in Minnesota's rotation. In fact, I argued before the team broke camp that Ponson should have been released, with Garza in that #5 slot in their rotation. As it stands right now, he's Minnesota's second-best healthy starter.

by guru4u on Apr 24, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Just my opinion but

I feel that Pence will be a cant miss solid big leaguer and in CF too...DONT part with him.

Gonzalez is very young and very talented. Who cares if he walks or not. He will also be playing in agreat hitters park AND if you need to trade him his value will be higher later as he is just satring out AAA. DONT deal him either.

Garza is a great young talent also and will probaly get 15-25 starts with the Twins this year and do well.

I see Andew Miller as the clear guy among the 4 to deal. I know many would disagree with me on him but I dont see great potential in the guy, at least not right away. AND, with all the hype surrounding the guy you'd be getting great value for a guy whos pitching in A ball right now.

Id say there are several good reasons for biting the bullet and letting the guy have Miller. It wont hurt you anytime soon even if he does become good it wont be this year or, most liely, next.

casedog

by casejud on Apr 25, 2007 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions