Bryan Smith - Looking at the Elite Eight in a New Way

by templeUsox on Apr 11, 2007 2:49 PM EDT

Bryan Smith, who I'm sure many of you already know, debuted today at Baseball Prospectus. He wrote a very interesting article analyzing a college pitcher's performance against the 1-5 hitters in the lineup vs. the 6-9 hitters in a lineup. Some of the results are intriguing.

Smith focused on 8 college pitchers in particular:

James Simmons
Nick Schmidt
David Price
Ross Detwiler
Sean Morgan
Joe Savery
Jake Arrieta
Andrew Brackman

By and large, these pitchers are considered the top pitchers from college in the 07 draft.

Far and away, Andrew Brackman had the biggest disparity between his performance against the top of the lineup and the bottom of the lineup.

Brackman vs. 1-5 hitters: .280/.379/.466, 20.3 K%
Brackman vs. 6-9 hitters: .211/.268/.256, 26.7 K%

Brackman's K% against 1-5 hitters was by far the lowest out of any pitcher: 5.8% below James Simmons, who was the 2nd worst.

David Price displayed remarkable consistency in K%; striking out 41% of 1-5 hitters and 41.2% of 6-9 hitters. His lines against those two groups looked like this:

1-5: .208/.281/.271
6-9: .165/.257/.237

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6083

In sum: Brackman = bust

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Comments

Oh...

and it's premium BTW.

by templeUsox on Apr 11, 2007 2:48 PM EDT reply actions

Moskos?

I feel confident saying Daniel Moskos will be picked ahead of at least half of the players on this list, especially if his transition to the rotation goes as expected.

by eazyb81 on Apr 11, 2007 3:15 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe...

but do you really think he fits in this group of players?

Everyone on this list has at least 20 more IP than Moskos.

by templeUsox on Apr 11, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure

if this is the "Elite Eight" in terms of eligible college pitchers for this year's draft, Moskos should surely be on the list.

by eazyb81 on Apr 11, 2007 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions

And if it's...

an elite eight of starting pitchers, Moskos has no business on the list.

by templeUsox on Apr 11, 2007 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions

wait, a transmission is coming through

"andrew brackman, busty amateur"

by wily mo on Apr 11, 2007 4:14 PM EDT reply actions

Brackman's A Bust?

I wouldn't use a top 10 pick on Brackman, but the context of these numbers is that he is considerably further behind in his development due to a duel interest in baseball and basketball. Brackman has struggled this year so far. If the scouting reports of his velocity are correct, given his physical attributes, his ceiling may be higher than any others on this list except possibly Price. Brackman may be a bust or he may be a superstar. He's a classic high risk, high reward type prospect.

by DrBGiantsfan on Apr 11, 2007 4:45 PM EDT reply actions