Bryan Smith - Looking at the Elite Eight in a New Way
Bryan Smith, who I'm sure many of you already know, debuted today at Baseball Prospectus. He wrote a very interesting article analyzing a college pitcher's performance against the 1-5 hitters in the lineup vs. the 6-9 hitters in a lineup. Some of the results are intriguing.
Smith focused on 8 college pitchers in particular:
James Simmons
Nick Schmidt
David Price
Ross Detwiler
Sean Morgan
Joe Savery
Jake Arrieta
Andrew Brackman
By and large, these pitchers are considered the top pitchers from college in the 07 draft.
Far and away, Andrew Brackman had the biggest disparity between his performance against the top of the lineup and the bottom of the lineup.
Brackman vs. 1-5 hitters: .280/.379/.466, 20.3 K%
Brackman vs. 6-9 hitters: .211/.268/.256, 26.7 K%
Brackman's K% against 1-5 hitters was by far the lowest out of any pitcher: 5.8% below James Simmons, who was the 2nd worst.
David Price displayed remarkable consistency in K%; striking out 41% of 1-5 hitters and 41.2% of 6-9 hitters. His lines against those two groups looked like this:
1-5: .208/.281/.271
6-9: .165/.257/.237
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6083
In sum: Brackman = bust
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Moskos?
Maybe...
Everyone on this list has at least 20 more IP than Moskos.

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