Dukes starting in CF, Upton at 2B

07 Tampa Bay Devil Rays= 06 Florida Marlins

.

by NYYLover1000 on Mar 31, 2007 7:17 PM EDT reply actions

really?

Where's Scott Olsen?
Where's Josh Johnson?
Where's Anibal Sanchez?

The 07 Rays have a chance to be the 06 Marlins if the front office decides to dump Jae Seo and Casey Fossum.

Then the rotation would be something like this:

Scott Kazmir
James Shields
Edwin Jackson
J.P. Howell
Mitch Talbot/Jeff Niemann/Andy Sonnanstine

Then they would be the 06 Marlins, maybe better.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Mar 31, 2007 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions

none of those guys are as good as Sanchez, Johnson, or Olsen. The Marlins have absolutely fabulous young pitching. From where I'm sitting, beyond Kazmir (who is obviously the best pitcher on either staff), the Rays will need alot more things to break right (Jackson living up to his potential, Howell making the jump) than the Marlins did. The most important thing to remember about the 2006 Florida Marlins is what an exception they were. Most pitchers struggle their first time through the league, and the Marlins got great production (and ace level work out of Johnson) out of alot of young guys.

I'm not saying the Rays can't have it happen, and I'm not saying they're bereft of the sort of arms who could do it(in particular, Niemann and Sonnanstine - tho, there is justifiable trepidation about his stuff, which might make him the Yusmeiro Petit of this staff? - could make the leap.) I'm just saying that it's highly improbable, particularly in the AL East, that a staff that young could be that successful, and virtually impossible for them to be better than the Marlins outfit.

by GuyinNY on Mar 31, 2007 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions

If I were a betting man

I'd be willing to bet Kazmir wins more game this year than Olsen, Sanchez, and Johnson put together.

by StickRat on Apr 1, 2007 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions

disagree

I think NYY has it right. Yeah they won't have the same rotation and may not have as good a record.

But this is the year the Tampa young players start to show what they can be.

Kazmir is a stud, likewise Crawford. Baldelli if healthy is Crawford's equal and so will Delmon be. And when you add Dukes, Upton, and soon Longoria you get a very exciting team.

by pedrophile on Mar 31, 2007 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions

first base

they need a first baseman and a strong defensive catcher that can handle a staff. if they could somehow swing a deal for a guy like james loney they would be set up for a while. draft price, lock up kazmir, and hope niemann stays healthy and they could have a good rotation in a few years.

C get a defensive guy
1B best you can trade for
2B Upton
3B Longoria
SS Brignac
LF Crawford
CF Baldelli
RF Young
DH Dukes

SP Kazmir
SP Niemann
SP Shields
SP Price
SP Jackson/McGee

CL Wade Davis

by fewgoodcards on Mar 31, 2007 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Gomes

could be either 1B or DH, to go along with Dukes.

by pedrophile on Mar 31, 2007 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions

The Rays don't need a 1B

...though I think Loney would be an intriguing add to this team....Im still a believer in Wes Bankston and Joel Guzman, at least one of them will prove a serviceable major league 1B, with 40+ HR potential....and until then, Dukes and Gomes have 1b/DH covered...

by daveh33 on Mar 31, 2007 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I hate to say this ...

but Eduardo Perez is available.

by StickRat on Apr 1, 2007 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Carlos Pena

The Rays already have Carlos Pena.

I really don't understand why he hasn't gotten more of a chance the last 2 years. He's been a pretty reliable .800 OPS guy for a couple years, and he was crushing the ball at the end of '05 but failed to turn that production into a regular job in '06.

Pena never turned into the star many expected him to become, but he's still only 29 and has never really been a below-average bat. He's also the Rays' best defensive option at 1B.

Reporting on Baseball from around the world! http://globalbaseball.wordpress.com

by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Apr 1, 2007 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Are you kidding me?

>>he's still only 29 and has never really been a below-average bat<<

Years with more than 100 AB's

2002, .242 with 397 ab's
2003, .248 with 452 ab's
2004, .241 with 481 ab's
2005, .235 with 260 ab's

by dombonny on Apr 1, 2007 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

i see no reason

to think that those rookies would definately be better Seo and FOssum THIS YEAR

by nms on Apr 1, 2007 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

plus, Jeff Niemann

can give them something this year. You can also make the arguement that if they win 75 games, it will be more impressive than the Marlins last year becuae they play in a tougher division and league.

by NYYLover1000 on Mar 31, 2007 8:53 PM EDT reply actions

McGee is a guy to watch out for

I could see him making an impact this year.

by pedrophile on Mar 31, 2007 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Response

He walked an awful lot of guys last year. I think he'll improve upon that this year in Advanced A but a lot of lefties struggle with their control upon the jump to AA. I am encouraged by the positive reports on his change but it remains to be seen how that applies to actual in-game results.

Control/command issues combined with the Rays generally being reluctant to aggressively push their prospects these days makes me think he'll spend half the year in A ball and the other half in AA. He's a guy with a very advanced breaking pitch and well above-average fastball velocity, spending his second year in A ball - sounds like a recipe for an excellent A ball season. I'll be expecting big things there . . .but naturally, given those expectations, I'm not going to push him that much higher up the list for doing things there. Now AA, that's a different story . . .

by mrkupe on Apr 1, 2007 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions

curious?

if dukes gets 450 ab's this year. what kind of numbers should he put up?

by Colavitorockys on Mar 31, 2007 10:38 PM EDT reply actions

whoa

this just popped into my head....Baldelli for Saltalamacchia....especially since Andruw is leaving after this season....Im sure the Braves would love to fill his spot with a guy like Rocco...

by daveh33 on Mar 31, 2007 11:46 PM EDT reply actions

very intriguing

i could see salty blossoming if that happened

Lincecum is the blood diamond.

by realityconquest on Apr 1, 2007 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

i like this more every second....

C-Salty
1B- Bankston/Guzman/Gomes
2B- Upton
3B- Longoria
SS- Briggy
LF- Crawford
CF- Dukes
RF- Delmon
DH- Gomes/Bankston/Guzman

...what a lineup...seriously championship-worthy is these guys fill out only half of their potential...they'll win everytime Kazmir starts...and probably hit enough to win most of their other games too...and if Kaz can dominate the Yanks like he does the Sox, then they'd be unstoppable in that division....

by daveh33 on Apr 1, 2007 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Honestly...

thats the best possible lineup they could have.

How kickass is that young talent they have? I do kinda wish they'd give Upton more time at SS.

by SenorGato88 on Apr 1, 2007 2:47 AM EDT reply actions

for what?

He's terribly inconsistent defensively at SS and his bat hasn't been better than Ben Zobrist's since 2005. Not to mention, Reid Brignac is knocking on the door to the majors.

Back to Zobrist, he's done nothing but hit and get on base since he was drafted and he's been the Rays best hitter this spring. Also, his defense is consistent and he's impressed with his range and arm.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 1, 2007 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Hold on...

Brignac hit very well in the Cali league. Let's wait until he's shown he's figured out Double-A for a couple months before we say he's "knocking on the door to the majors."

Reporting on Baseball from around the world! http://globalbaseball.wordpress.com

by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Apr 1, 2007 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Brignac in AA

Brignac had over a 800 OPS in AA last year. He'll probably see half a season at AA and another half-season at AAA before competing for the SS job next spring.

Coming to the majors in the next year is knocking on the door to me. I didn't say he was busting the door down, just knocking lol.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 1, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Cause he's 22....

and I think the reason he's fallen so hard in his overall game is because the Rays have had NO idea what to do with him.

by SenorGato88 on Apr 1, 2007 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

A couple thoughts

Kazmir gets hurt a lot.

I agree; let's see Briggy get through AA first.

Rocco Baldelli isn't and won't ever be Carl Crawford's equal.

I like Carlos Pena if a batting coach helps him close that huge hole on his hands. Sexson had the same problem and adjusted enough to be useful.

Hearing someone say Banks or J. Guzman will be a "serviceable 1B" with 40+ homers is hilarious. They couldn't hit 40 homers in Lancaster right now. Jeez.

))<>(( forever.

by jayg @ Minor League Ball on Apr 1, 2007 10:17 AM EDT reply actions

why?

<<Rocco Baldelli isn't and won't ever be Carl Crawford's equal.>>

Why do you think that?

by pedrophile on Apr 1, 2007 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Baldelli and Crawford

I don't know how you can make that statement regarding Crawford and Baldelli. They already have similar on-base skills. The only significant difference is that Baldelli hits home runs more frequently and is less healthy.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Apr 1, 2007 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

SB

he may be ranking them based on roto value. Because in real value Baldelli has more upside with better defence but more injury risk.

by pedrophile on Apr 1, 2007 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

hm

OK, that would make sense. In the real world Crawford's SB don't make up for Baldelli's superior power production/potential but I could see that making a huge difference in a fantasy league that counts SB the same as HR, etc.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Apr 1, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

hm

Really though?

Baldelli only had an 8 pt lead in OPS+ last year. Crawford, last year at least, had a slightly better OBP and he certianly doesnt lack for power himself. He racks up doubles and tripes and hit 18 HRs.

Also, people are quick to poo poo base-stealing but 58 steals in 67 tries is VERY valuable. Not that Baldelli is a slouch himself, going 10 for 11.
I'd say Crawfords basestealing does in large part make up for Baldellis power advantage.

I think Baldelli is massively underrated in these parts but I can't say that hes better than Crawford.
Theyre very close in my book

by nms on Apr 1, 2007 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

agreed they are around the same

The original argument was because Jayg stated:
<Baldelli isn't and won't ever be Crawford's equal>

in reply to:
<Baldelli if healthy is Crawford's equal>

Which to me is crazy talk. Their numbers are very close. Either one could pull ahead of the other but until they do I'd rank them equal with the health caveat for Baldelli.

by pedrophile on Apr 1, 2007 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

only had an 8 pt lead?

An 8 point difference in OPS+ is substantial.

58-for-67 in stolen base attempts is awesome, but even that doesn't make up for a 50-point difference in slugging percentage over a full season if you use something like runs created or linear weights to estimate the value of those stolen bases and other offensive events.

Now I don't know if Baldelli can maintain that kind of power advantage over Crawford through a full season and I think there are benefits of having a runner like Crawford on the bases that are difficult to quantify. So I won't make the argument that Baldelli is greater than Crawford, but I do think it's ridiculous to state Crawford and Baldelli are "not even close" like the original poster claimed.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Apr 1, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Start a team

I'll take Crawford 100 times out of 100. Potential is great, but there's something to be said for durability, and that's a skill in itself. Crawford has it, Baldelli doesn't, and here's hoping TB gets tired of this game and deals him to clear a permanent spot for Elijah. =D