Alex Gordon Crystal Ball

by John Sickels on Mar 22, 2007 12:43 PM EDT in News Comment 44 comments

Gordon has made the Royals opening day roster, so this is a good day to do this one. This projection may seem optimistic, but I fully believe that he can do this if he stays healthy long enough. Think a cross between George Brett and Mark Teixeira.

Disclaimer: The Crystal Ball is an "educated opinion"...not to be taken TOO seriously and mostly for fun. I do put quite a bit of work into them, looking at similar players and trying to figure out how the guy in question might develop. Is there a fancy computer program? No. Do I just slop numbers on the page? No. It is less than a projection/prediction but more than just guesswork. The point is to stimulate discussion about the player.

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Wow

That career would make him a sure-fire HOFer.

like unto a thing of iron.

by Ryan Heimberger on Mar 22, 2007 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Only question

is whether he'd get in on the first ballot.

I could see that career path IF he stays healthy though. It's usually the injuries that derail guys like this.

Will Eli be showering in Evian at last?

by Brickhaus on Mar 22, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

First ballot

Especially if his entire career is w/ the Royals, which I agree is the least likely aspect of this CB, I think he's a first balloter.

The most impressive thing about this career would be the consistency - barely any decline until the last couple years.

Other things I notice:

1209 XBH's puts him comfortably in 6th on the All Time list. His XBH% is tremendous - 43% of his hits go for extra bases.

His career line (.288/.369/.526, approx) is similar to Willie Stargell's (.282/.360/.529) - very different career paths though, and less similar, but more contemporary, Scott Rolen (.285/.375/.515)

by sasquatch83 on Mar 22, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sheesh

And I thought I was a big Gordon fan...

by eazyb81 on Mar 22, 2007 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Royals his entire career?

I am interested to see how the Royals afford to keep him his entire career as predicted here. He will want to win at some point, I assume, and other teams will pay far more for his services. I think that may be the biggest stretch of this CB.

by goose102977 on Mar 22, 2007 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

I'm not a big fan of gordon, but wow i wasn't expecting that one at all. I think John just wants some of his hometwon KC guys to step it up a little.. ;-)

Where would this put him on a list of all time third baseman?

by Metty5 on Mar 22, 2007 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

WOW!

Where did the Royals find the $415,000,000.00 to sign him to that first 8 year contract?!

by Con on Mar 22, 2007 1:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

optimistic

This is optimistic but if he stays healthy long enough he is capable of this.

by John Sickels on Mar 22, 2007 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

what a bad ass

think he would hang on for a couple years like biggio to get 3000 hits?

by wildthang on Mar 22, 2007 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow thats a huge CB

Gordon sure can mash though and I wouldn't put this career past him as long as he stays healthy. To me if he plays 3B his whole career that is easily a first ballot HOF career.

I love that you have him with the Royals his whole career. Even though I am a fan of an in division team I would love to see the Royals able to hang on to a player like this.... I know that the teams are just kind of guesses and secondary pieces to the puzzle though.

by VtTigers on Mar 22, 2007 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

HOF

It wouldn't only make him a Hall of Famer, it'd make him one of probably the top five third basemen of all time, if not the best. Those numbers make him look a lot like Mike Schmidt, unless you're anticipating a position shift later in his career.

Brian
http://www.tigerblog.net

by Brian B on Mar 22, 2007 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gordon grew up in NEB and is a royals fan

That is why he could stay in KC his entire career. He grew up loving the Royals and his brother was even named after George Brett.

by royalsfan7 on Mar 22, 2007 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Big Money....

Can change all of that.... It would still take some good money from the Royals to keep him.

by VtTigers on Mar 22, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It can, but

Well, we Royals fans are optimistic, let's put it that way.

It is very early, but if there's any superstar the Royals will be able to hold onto, it's Gordon. Grew up a Royals fan, idolized George Brett, and really seems to want to win in KC.

That's one of the best things about Gordon and Butler. They know they're the future of Kansas City, and they're confident that they will either be the ones to turn things around or die trying. That kind of attitude is amazing to have on a team like the Royals. Combine that with new GM Dayton Moore's similar win-or-die attitude (he too grew up a Royals fan), and David Glass's newfound desire to spend a little of his hard earned Wal-Mart monies, and I think the Royals have a fighting chance to hold on to both Gordon and Butler.

And that, obviously, would be incredible. There just aren't many players that stick around with a single team their whole careers; there isn't much loyalty in the game today, just money.

Thanks for the prediction, John. Royals fans everywhere hope that you're right.

by ajohnst1 on Mar 22, 2007 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As I posted earlier

I hope he is right too. I am not saying its completely out of the realm of possibility. I am saying that just because someone grew up a fan of an organization does not guarantee they will stay there.

If he approaches this level in his first 6 years someone will offer him crazy money on the level of 20-25 million a year. If you want an idea of what he would get for that level of production... wait and see what contract Miguel Cabrera gets after 2009.

My point is that even as a Royals fan he will expect to be paid for his production. They won't be able to just bank on a cheap contract because of that. It still will take something in the 15-20 range per season IF he ends up like the CB.

But I digress because the CB isn't about where he goes as a player or what team he plays for.

I hope that part of it is dead on because even as a fan of a rival team I would love to see a small market team like the Royals hold on to a star.

by VtTigers on Mar 22, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except

That the Royals will likely never let it get the point where he's looking at free agency.

The recent model of locking up young stars by buying out some of their arbitration years (and tacking on a team option year at the tail end)--Utley, Sizemore, Cain, McCann, etc. should apply even more to a guy like Gordon.

by Yakker on Mar 22, 2007 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We will see...

That is possible but it still will take a lot of money to keep locking him up. Again I hope he does stay there.

by VtTigers on Mar 22, 2007 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not that I'm disappointed

But I do think Gordon will steal a few more bases early in his career. He did steal 22 last season in AA, so I think a few 20 steal seasons in the majors are a possibility.

by ajohnst1 on Mar 22, 2007 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The real question here

Where does this put him in relation to George Brett? It looks close...

The House That Dewey Built http://www.deweyshouse.com

by SmokeyJoeWood on Mar 22, 2007 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i don't mind

the optimism. John Rarely projects HOF numbers, even for the good prospects. So if he sees something special in Gordon, by all means...project HOF numbers once in a while.

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Mar 22, 2007 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ballsy Call John

I mean, I'd be ecstatic if he puts up these numbers - and stays with the Royals over an entire career. But predicting 528 career HR's from a guy who hasn't had an at bat above AA yet? Wow, just...wow.

Dude, what's gotten in to you and your crystal balls lately? You've really been laying it all on the line for risky guys to predict like Gordon and Matsuzaka!

by NYCRoyal on Mar 22, 2007 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Recent CB's

on Olsen and Hamels (especially) weren't glowing, and I think he got a bit of a backlash. Heck, he even got a bit of a backlash on the Hughes won that had him winning nearly 200 career games!

Maybe John decided what the people MOST want to see is more best case scenario type Crystal Balls.

by drwmsu1 on Mar 22, 2007 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Top 5 3rd baseman of all time

Mathews, Brett, Schmidt, A-Rod(3rd baseman now and has put up great #'s for a 3rd baseman), and Gordon. I see 2 or 3 MVP seasons in there for Gordon. Him and Delmon for MVP's in the future.

by Bravesin07 on Mar 22, 2007 4:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

he is not nearly the prospect that Arod was

by yoda1 on Mar 22, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's also

not projected to do as well as A-Rod is projected to do. Assuming a normal decline curve and that he plays until his late 30's, A-Rod should end up with somewhere around 3300 hits and 700 HRs.

Will Eli be showering in Evian at last?

by Brickhaus on Mar 22, 2007 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

um....

you're a braves fan and you don't mention chipper in the top 5 of all time? interesting...i think the numbers right now bear him out in that manner...let alone if he can keep healthy for a few more seasons....

by biggentleben on Mar 22, 2007 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ummm...

Did you forget about Home Run Baker and Ron Santo?

Right now, the list probably goes Schmidt, Brett, Matthews, Baker, and Santo.

by CubbieBlue66 on Mar 23, 2007 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, if you're a hopeless Cubs homer

Ron Santo isn't even in the Hall of Fame...and Chipper Jones' career OPS is more than a hundred points higher than Santo's was. Add in the fact that Chipper has played his whole career with the Braves and helped them win 13 consecutive division titles...and he's a future Hall of Famer, if he plays three or four more productive seasons.

And Home Run Baker? That's Frank Baker, right? He of 96 career home runs??? He's not even better than Santo...let alone Chipper. What utter nonsense.

The list probably goes Schmidt, Brett, Mathews, Boggs, and Chipper (assuming a couple more productive years).

If A-Rod stays at third the rest of his career, he'll take top honors.

And if Gordon lives up to this crystal ball, he'll be in the discussion somewhere.

In 25 years, the list will look something like this: A-Rod, Schmidt, Brett, Gordon, Mathews. Heck, if this CB is true, Gordon might even be ahead of Brett. It feels so weird to say that, though...so I won't.

by ajohnst1 on Mar 27, 2007 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

before you scoff at him....

....you should consider using era-adjustments. talking about Baker's 98 homeruns as if that were nothing makes you sound pretty foolish, as is doing an unadjusted OPS comp for Santo and Chipper.

just to give you the list Bill James made after the 2000 season (which is what I refer to more than anything for historical rankings): Mike Schmidt is first, Brett second, Eddie Mathews third, Boggs fourth, Baker fifth, Santo sixth.....and Chipper Jones is 28th.

of course, Chipper's had a few more nice years since then, but his peak was definitely behind him. i would be surprised if James would rank Chipper ahead of any of those people today. and, no, James certainly DIDN'T bias the ranking against active players.

anyway, i'm not saying you're not entitled to your own opinion, but i definitely wouldn't be making fun of his if i were you....

by bleedjaxblue on Mar 27, 2007 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I thought of that

And I've read James' rankings before, but don't have them handy.

Obviously, I knew when I looked at Baker's stats that he was playing in a different era. And the home run numbers are obviously NOT going to be there...but it doesn't seem like his other numbers are really there either, does it?

As for Santo and Chipper...to each his own. Chipper obviously played in a monster offensive era, but he's put up better numbers than Santo has. I'd actually argue that the biggest mark against Santo is not what he did but how long he did it for: he really only played 13-14 full seasons.

I'm not making fun, but, like you said, I'm entitled to my opinion.

by ajohnst1 on Mar 27, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boggs >> Chipper

The House That Dewey Built http://www.deweyshouse.com

by SmokeyJoeWood on Mar 26, 2007 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

um

who said he was?

by neutralluke on Mar 22, 2007 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well...

How much more time does Butler spend in the minors before he joins him?

by slurve on Mar 22, 2007 6:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Depends

On how long it takes te Royals to give up on trying to make him an outfielder...or how long it takes Butler to learn how to play close to average defense in an outfield corner.

He'd probably also be called up if Mike Sweeney got injured. And by if, I mean when.

He'll be up by September at the latest.

by ajohnst1 on Mar 22, 2007 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Butler's D...

Has been said to of been improving greatly, though that just could be the Royal's brass blowing smoke. Still, he couldn't be much worse than Emil Brown.

by KCSlayer on Mar 22, 2007 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I've heard that at this point, his greatest problem is lack of foot speed, but that's not going to get any better. He's got a good arm though.

by ajohnst1 on Mar 22, 2007 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it is good, but...

A few more steals early on...I think his BA will be closer to .300 than .280, and I certainly think that his career OBP will be higher.

Some people bring the Bible to college...we bring Moneyball.

by uga007 on Mar 22, 2007 9:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

I guess he's not going to face Daisuke a lot in 2011.

by Klostrophobic on Mar 23, 2007 2:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Im gonna shoot for the moon

Alex Gordon bats .403 in 2013.

by wildthang on Mar 23, 2007 2:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not enough for some people, I guess....

I love how John has predicted a Hall of Fame career for the guy (and he does have the talent to do it) but you still have the occasional "will steal more bases" and "probably a lifetime .300 hitter". Come on, people, let's be reasonable. If not, I'm touting Jose Reyes as the first 50/50 player.

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 23, 2007 5:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

maybeee

just maybe,
they think his career will look a little different?

count me in as one of the people who thinks he has a better career AVG, and steals more at the beginning of his career.

maybe some of those same people
(like me)
aren't sure he'll hit that many home runs,
or get that many RBI.

maybe it balances out.

give them their opinions back,
it's not yours.

by god allah star on Mar 23, 2007 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Never enough

I thought Gordon's consecutive games streak would last until at least 2012.

by Con on Mar 23, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

That's just about the career that I expect from Gordon, and I have felt that way for years. The D'Backs are going to be regretting the decision to choose Justin Upton over Gordon during 2007-10, and probably long after that.

I imagine that John is projecting a move from third to first (from the Teixeira reference) in Gordon's early-mid 30s.

by Mike Green on Mar 23, 2007 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs