Morrow threatening to break camp with the Mariners

by ebbnflow on Mar 19, 2007 8:51 PM EDT Comment 29 comments

There has been some increasing buzz around the Mariner camp that Brandon Morrow, the 5th pick in last year's amateur draft, could make the 25 man roster this spring as a reliever.

Through 6 1/3 innings, he has yet to give up a run and has K'd 8 batters via his 97 mile per hour fastball and slider combination. Batters so far have been quite unsuccessful at getting on base against him, what with the a grand total of two hits and two walks accounting for all of the difficulty he's encountered thus far.

(There's a nice little first hand recount of his March 15th performance versus the Cub's top four hitters at U.S.S. Mariner: http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/15/notes-from-mesa-and-peoria/)

Couple this with Putz's current battle with elbow tightness, and there's reason for the Mariner brass to consider moving him into the major league pen for the start of the year. In fact, the GM, Bavasi, made some comments on the radio during Morrow's latest outing today (1 1/3 innings, 0 runs, 1 BB and 2 Ks) that said, in effect, that he currently has a "high percentage" of making the club.

I don't have much to offer in insofar as speculation on where they would put him, initially, but it could be anywhere from fireman duty (ala Mark Lowe last year) to actually closing games. (Again, wholly dependent on how Putz's elbow feels in the next week.)

I know some of you are convinced that he's bound for a major league reliever's career, so there ya go. :) However, I'm sure that the M's brass still considers him ultimately as a starter, and will begin stretching him out eventually. If not in the minors this season, then definitely next year.

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I think

Morrow should be a starter. I can see him and Felix Hernandez being a devastating 1-2 punch for the years to come. Plus, the guy just got drafted, give him some time to develop a little bit. I understand he's a college pitcher but a couple months to develop his game more.

by NYYLover1000 on Mar 19, 2007 9:00 PM EDT reply actions

Morrow = starter = best possible option

Definitely - I like him waaaaay better as a starter, also.

And objectively, they should certainly give him time to stretch out. 16 minor league innings last year, and about 100 college innings behind that seems a bit light...

But I can see the Mariners' thought process behind such a quick promotion. He's got the power game to get through the pressure innings, and if Putz isn't ready to start the season, that puts a lot of pressure on Seattle, since the consensus is that they are in a "must win -now-" situation.

Of course, one possibility is that he gets Weaver-ed into the rotation around midseason, with increased innings per each appearance, not unlike Liriano's move to the starting five last year. (Funny, too, that he could get "Weaver-ed" into Jeff Weaver's spot... :P Sorry, Earl!)

Ideally, though, I would agree: the best course of action would be to plop him down in AAA and have him toss at least 50 innings.

Ah well, as long as he's a fixture of the Mariner rotation starting in 2008...

by ebbnflow on Mar 19, 2007 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Ehhh

I really don't want him to loose his rookie status or his clock to start. Being a college pitcher he should probably be in AA by season's end. There is no reason for a team like Seattle to start his professional clock early.

I have him on my fantasy team and Felix, Morrow, Weaver, Ramirez and Batusita is a solid rotation but can it compete?

by JDSussman on Mar 19, 2007 9:03 PM EDT reply actions

not a fan

but washburn too

by JDSussman on Mar 19, 2007 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point

True - the arby clock issue -is- a huge caveat. Better to "pay" for a starter's workload than a reliever's, even if it's just initially. Hm.

Word is, though, that he's either AA or even AAA bound, if he doesn't make the major league squad. Mariners seem to think he's ready for that step now, and there are scouts that corroborate that viewpoint as well.

One thing the kid has, apparently, is a nearly picture perfect delivery, so it's only a question of how good his stuff is.

And yeah - I think that that rotation can keep the Mariners in games. A lot of "six and a third innings, three runs given up" sorta nights, but that should be enough. Even if the offense is filled with hackers, there's no blatant "give away" spots like last year, what with the Carl Everett "DH" debacle, and the carousel of mediocrity in CF. Say what you will about Vidro, but he and Jose Guillen provide a decent enough upgrade for those two black holes..

by ebbnflow on Mar 19, 2007 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions

pretty stupid

to consider putting the kid on the big league club based on 6.1 IP. Don't rush him.

by t ball on Mar 19, 2007 9:57 PM EDT reply actions

rush!

"Don't rush him"?

This is the Seattle Mariners we're talking about. Not rushing him is not an option.

by FI on Mar 20, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

at least

they have a solid track record with developing pitching and have much less injuries than most.

Dukes is Jurastically better than Bradley. After all Dukes has been playing baseball ever since T-ball.

by pedrophile on Mar 20, 2007 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Bha hhaha hah ah hah hah ahbhhhab hah aha hahhaha

Good one. :-)

by Yakker on Mar 20, 2007 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Brilliant logic

Because they trade their top setup man for Horawful Ramirez instead of signing Ohka or Thomson or other cheap 1 year option they'll move Morrow into the pen.

Does he need to have success and gradually be challenged and also stretch out his arm slowly?

Or does he need to jump back and forth between levels, possibly be over-matched, and get too few innings as a reliever?

Dukes is Jurastically better than Bradley. After all Dukes has been playing baseball ever since T-ball.

by pedrophile on Mar 19, 2007 10:01 PM EDT reply actions

MRI

I agree with you but I should point out that Thomson is already shut down and scheduled to undergo an MRI. He's also set to make $1.5M if he's on the Opening Day roster so there's a chance he could be waived. If the M's were in the Jays shoes Jake Woods would most likely be back in the rotation. No thanks. I'll take Horacio.

by Con on Mar 22, 2007 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

what difference

from what Jim Leyland did going to bat for Zumaya, Verlander and Jordan Tata last year? If management likes what they see in a player regardless of his experience, and they feel that Morrow is giving them the best shot to win games, then he's the guy they should grab. This is about wins and losses for those guys, especially with as many losses as they've had for the last 5 years.

Jim Leyland:manager-Ty Cobb:player

by TigerFanInCleveland on Mar 19, 2007 10:32 PM EDT reply actions

Big difference

Verlander didn't spend many innings in the minors (118.2), but that's a hundred innings more than Morrow has under his belt right now (16). And Zumaya had a whopping 409.2 minor league innings and Tata had 516.2 before they got called to the big leagues. That's a huge difference in experience between those three and Morrow.

Morrow might be able to do a decent, even an above average, job as a major league reliever right now. But what would be the point? You'd start his arbitration clock early, you'd risk screwing up his development, you'd risk him being ineffective, etc.

And he wouldn't help you win THAT many more games as a reliever...

Besides, as others have pointed out, it would be stupid to assume he could handle the big leagues just because he's thrown a good 6 and 1/3 innings in spring training (plus 16 fairly dominant innings in the low minors).

by ajohnst1 on Mar 19, 2007 11:02 PM EDT reply actions

and

the wins & losses won't mean much as it looks like Seattle will be mediocre this year.

They need Morrow up when he can dominate for them.

Dukes is Jurastically better than Bradley. After all Dukes has been playing baseball ever since T-ball.

by pedrophile on Mar 20, 2007 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions

David Aardsma

The Giants had a pitcher somewhat in a similar position a few years ago named David Aardsma. They rushed him up after his first pro summer(in which he pitched more innings than Morrow did last year) and an exciting spring. Set the kid back several years. Just say no.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 19, 2007 11:58 PM EDT reply actions

Joey Devine

is somewhat similar example.

Don't do it, Seattle. Think of the future.

by Yakker on Mar 20, 2007 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Chad Cordero

Is another similar example, and it hasn't hurt him at all. Each kid is different.

by drwmsu1 on Mar 20, 2007 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure

But enough have been damaged for me to wonder why you'd roll the dice.

by Yakker on Mar 20, 2007 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I tend to agree...

with a more conservative approach, but I do think players should be challenged. Just to say, I'd like to see Morrow take a month or so in AA, then making the jump, but I'm not privy to watching him or running the team, so...

I'm just wondering what the logic is behind applying a ceiling to that starting point.

For instance, teams start newly drafted players at all different levels, from short season to the majors. Like I understand the logic that says, this kid won't be challenged by SS ball, so lets put him in Low-A (like Upton and Maybin), or high-A (like Werlander) or AA (like Gordon), and so on. Place the kid where you believe he will be challenged. So, if you have a kid who you think won't be challenged by AAA, then what logic would be used to say he shouldn't be in the majors, but in AAA?

Seems the establishment of that ceiling is arbitrary.

by beastball on Mar 20, 2007 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh another thing...

people didn't seem to mind Andrew Miller making the jump last year, but they seem so opposed to Morrow possibly making it out of spring. What's the difference?

by beastball on Mar 20, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Miller

was called up based on his contract for one month at the end of the season.

Morrow might be called up for the start of the season based on 6 spring training innings.

Dukes is Jurastically better than Bradley. After all Dukes has been playing baseball ever since T-ball.

by pedrophile on Mar 20, 2007 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

The differnce

The Difference is that Andrew Miller would have been another great arm in a playoff push. On a team that could use another lefty whereas Morrow would start the season in the pen on a team that will not content. A La Lincecum. Even if Morrow starts in the Rotation he has only pitched 16 innings in the minors, once again A La Lincecum with a small sample size.

Miller might have a higher projection than Morrow or the better pitcher, but given the circumstances it was a good risk to bring him up. Right now it doesn't pay for the Mariners to do the same with Morrow.

by JDSussman on Mar 20, 2007 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Ok, the Miller situation makes sense...

both by contract and by circumstance.

And I do understand that it doesn't make good business sense for the Mariners to let him break camp with the team.

But, from a development perspective, other than a simple lack of experience, is there any other reason to not let him start with the Majors, if they believe he is ready?

Sounds like he's got at least two plus pitches, and could easily work on the third out of the pen.

Personally, if his change is lagging, and if you want him to be a starter, then you need to stretch him out in AAA and let him work on his change.

If the change is average, and you want him to compete for the 5th slot, then start him in long relief until you need the 5th starter and give him that slot if he's pitched well enough.

If you believe a player can thrive at a level, and not be challenged at the level below, then why not let him pitch at the level that presents a challenge?

What level should be the ceiling for draftees? Is it High-A? AA? AAA? And why.

by beastball on Mar 20, 2007 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

He needs to pitch

He needs to pitch, and he needs time to work on his stuff if a pressure free environment. Putting him in the pen would make him rely on his strengths. Not allowing him to pitch in AA would be a huge mistake.

by JDSussman on Mar 20, 2007 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Devil's Advocate here...

Do you believe there is any circumstance under which a newly drafted player should by-pass the minors?

I'm not arguing that Morrow should break with the team or start in Lo-A, Hi-A, AA or AAA because I don't really have enough information to make that determination. My gut says that he should get some minor league innings under his belt before going to the majors.

Having said that, I have read where they are purposely trying to get him facing the league's best hitters, so getting him into spring games earlier, and timing his inclusion to hit the heart of the order, so they are trying to challenge him.

And if they feel he can't be challenged by AAA hitters, and not learn from them, then it seems that a relatively low-pressure environment would be long relief, where he'd come into games which are pretty much decided one way or the other.

So, I'm just trying to figure out if it really is a bad thing or not.

For instance, Billingsley and Morrow are just about the same age. Billingsley pitched in the minors, and Morrow pitched in college. Neither are being included in their major league rotations, and both are being considered to be long relievers in the majors for this year. The only difference is that Billingsley did do his time in the minors, but what substantive benefit is gained if the coaches on the field determine that their respective stuff is good enough for the majors and that their development time would be best spent in long relief?

by beastball on Mar 21, 2007 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Artie

I think that if a team believes it is going to win, and the young player they are promoting will significantly help them win then why not? The dodgers are so deep in pitching that Billingsley is getting a qusi-santana treatment in the pen. His clock already began last year and now he is going to face big league hitters with low IP and lots of bullpen tossing. As the season progresses and a SP gets hurt or falters Billingsley will make that transition to the rotation.

The difference between Billingsley and Morrow is that Billingsley has already proven himself at the minor league level going from Rookie ball and hitting ever league after high A. Thats the advantage of an advanced HS pitcher. Morrow pitched in college for 3 years before going to the bigs and he could come up quickly as he progresses. But he still hasn't faced batters from A+ for an extended period of time. Not to mention AA or AAA. The small sample size in ST is just as small as his Minor League sample size. I love that they are challenging him now, but he needs to take what he learns in ST and bring it to the minors and perfect everything. With a team in contention and pitching needs i would see it reasonable for him to get a spot start in the bigs in September and try to make the postseason roster.

I disagree that long relief is no pressure situation. For a 20 year old kid, any spot in the majors is a pressure situation. And regardless his job is to get people out, not work on his change up or his pitch sequences.

Morrow might be able to help the team from the beginning of the year. But his help will in no way effect the turn out of the season. If someone on the team, say Jeff Weaver, steps up and they have a legit chance at winning the west then bring him up in late july and see what happens. But right now there isn't much of a chance of them winning the West. So why start the kid's clock?

by JDSussman on Mar 21, 2007 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree...

that there's no reason to start the kid's clock, and I do think that he should spend some time in AAA/AA as a starter. Morrow just brought up an issue I find a little interesting, in general.

You know, I like to have players earn their spot. So I like to look for consistent dominance of a level before promotion. Maybe I'd start Morrow at AA, let him get 10-15 starts there, if he dominates, consistently, over a set time period, then I'd promote him to AAA, and give him the same treatment there. I think there is some value to making these guys earn their spots with consistent, relatively long term dominance.

For instance, if Hochevar or Miller had lit it up in spring, and was in the running for a spot on the major league club, would we be having this discussion? Or is it just that Morrow is less known?

I do agree that if Morrow was 20, then bringing him slow would be important for his health, and his confidence. But we're talking about a 22-23 year old who is coming out of college. Developmentally, his shoulder should be fully mature, and he's been praised for his mental approach. As a younger kid, I think the experience of the minors is more valuable than for an older kid. Anyway...

I guess I look at it this way, pressure and educational benefit per inning increases as you go up in level with some flattening out between AA and AAA, and a spike from AAA to the majors. Is there a real reason to hold someone back if they've shown the stuff and mental fortitude to compete at a higher level? Just wondering what developmental value there would be in holding someone back who has shown they're ready for promotion.

by beastball on Mar 21, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry...

that "For instance" makes no sense, but I still like the question, if Miller or Hochevar were up for a spot on their major league teams, would people be as against it?

by beastball on Mar 21, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions