Very interesting write-up.  Smoltzie obviously took an unorthodox track to the majors but it shows why we need to have more patience with prospects and see more than just the numbers at times.

u guys agree?

To me, he's a HOF.

Oh, no doubt.  He belongs in the HOF.

Early in Smoltzie's career, he struggled badly - I think 1991 he went through a very bad spell.  And he had to work with a sports psychologist to get his head on straight.  I think he was rushed and had some issues.  But he certaintly seemed to get them straightened out.

One metric I've used to get a feel for his career -- it's very crude -- is to posit that a save is worth 1/3 of a win.  So a fifty-save season is equal in value to a 17 win season.  If you use this fuzzy math, you get smoltz at 193 wins + 154 saves/3 = 244 "wins".  I would think, with his level of dominance, a season's worth of post-season performance and a Cy-Young would push him into the HOF.

I also think the writers will buy this.  They voted in Catfish on lesser credentials.

When the Braves were a lock to finish both dead and last (or almost) in the NL West.  Students in my classes just cannot grasp the concept that the Braves were, along with Cleveland, clearly the worst of the worst....

I remember the batch of young pitchers that came up in the late '80s.  My father and I both really enjoyed watching Glavine and both had a strong liking for Smoltz.  Not sure what it was, but he was the one guy for whom we rooted.

Then, after 2 solid seasons, he starts '91 at 2-11 with a 5+ ERA.  Ugh.  And there were the Braves, starting out well but eventually slumping (I recall us noting on July 7, when they "finally" fell under .500 that it had been fun while it lasted) because poor John couldn't do anything right.  Finally, after Avery evens the record, John finally wins one to push them to 41-40 and both he (12-2 in '91) and the Braves (54-28) become essentially unstoppable...for 15 seasons.

The quality of that Braves team was certainly masked by his dreadful 1st half --- 37-29 with any other pitcher getting the decision.  It is a credit to Cox (or a damning of the rest of the available pitching talent?) that they stuck with John.

I believe he profiles (size, velocity and assortment) as the type of pitcher who can succeed up to his mid-40s if his elbow survives.  If he can get to 220 or 230 wins, he should become an absolute lock in the eyes of the writers....

Smoltz's career now is in the hands of his health. No question he can pitch, just a matter of how long his body holds out. He has said he will retire before undergoing another surgery so if anythign major happens thats it for him.

I really would not be suprised to see him bust out his knuckler and pitch till he is 50.

If anything I think Smoltz should get in because of his character and competitive spirit. In 98 or so he needed TJ surgery but instead of missing the playoffs he taught himself how to throw a knuckler so he wouldnt miss it. In 04 he was injured again missing the final month of the season but when the playoffs started he refused to not pitch. All he could throw were fastballs and even those were extremely painfull. Yet he still pitched. In 05 he had a bad shoulder and missed the last 3 weeks of the season, but in game 2 he pitched 7 innings of 1 run ball barely able to life his arm above his shoulder. It was so bad that even as much as he wanted to he would not be able to pitch again that post season even if they won the series. Each time he put his career on the line for that final title shot, if he doesnt get in then no one deserves to get in.

As a Braves fan I think he was the heart of all these Braves teams, he could of ran off for the money like Glavine and Maddux did but he didn't and if the bullpen wasn't so bad last year I think he would of won another CY.  I think he will go another 2 or 3 seasons and beleive it or if he leaves the Braves I think he ends up going to Detroit because he's from Michigan.  I would not have any problems with him going there.  Imagine a rotation or Smoltz, Bonderman, Miller, Verlander, and Robertson, that would be better than probably the 90's Braves rotation, personally I think Rogers is done after this season for Detroit.

Book it: He's in. First ballot.

He was pretty bad his first half season in the majors.  I saw one of his first ever starts- against the Mets- he was hit pretty hard and looked awful- so awful that I remembered him solely for that reason.

The next year I remember seeing him start against the Mets again- my thought was, "oh good, he sucks". Well in that game he looked like an entirely different pitcher- dominant in fact.

People tend to forget that the majority of very good pitchers get hit around a bit their first 10-40 starts in the MLB.  Met fans most of all tend to forget, because guys like Seaver, Koosman, Gooden etc were good MLB pitchers from day one- but that's the exception rather than the rule.  Atlanta's big three each got battered their first go around against MLB hitters.

Personally the guy I think is most likely to go all Smoltz on the league is Brandon McCarthy, whom the Sox seem to have prematurely booted based upon a lackluster 150 ip.

I would say HOF for Smoltz except that, in my mind, the closest comp I can think of for him is David Cone and no one is making the case that Cone is going to the Hall.  Agree, disagree?

You're ignoring the three dominating season Smoltz had as a closer. And that Smoltz has thrown nearly TWICE as many post-season inning as Cone -- with an ERA a full run better.

Smoltz won 12 games with a 2.94 mark for the Braves in 1989, spending the last 17 years as a mainstay of the Braves staff in one role or another.

. . . but it is impossible to spend 17 years doing anything in the mere 12 months that make up one year. What you mean is, Smoltz won 12 games with a 2.94 mark for the Braves in 1989, and spent the last 17 years . . .

Sorry, it's a pet peeve.