Innings Pitched vs. Number of Pitches Thrown

by TC Chris on Mar 1, 2007 5:26 PM EST Comment 10 comments

Lots of people predict that Justin Verlander will be ineffective or fall injured this year based on the dramatic increase in the number of innings he pitched in '05 versus '06. I can understand this concern.

One thing that stands out to me, however, is the relatively lower number of pitches he threw in his innings. I'll list three young pitchers and the number of pitches they threw last year.

Justin Verlander
Regular Season - 2973 pitches thrown, 186 ip
Postseason - 408 pitches
Total - 3381

Matt Cain
Regular Season - 3307 pitches, 191 ip

Felix Hernandez - 3067 pitches, 190 ip

Basically, Verlander threw 75 more pitches than Matt Cain last year, and no one talks about a high injury risk for Cain. So it must be the increase in innings. In 03, Cain threw 73 innings in the minors. In 04, Cain threw 158 innings in the minors, in 05 he threw 192 innings in the minors and majors, and in 06 he threw 191. So he matched his career high, but there are dramatic increases in there, correct?

So, what is the basis for the injury concern? Is it due to using innings pitched as a general guide. If it is, why don't people talk about the number of pitches thrown? Is it significant in terms of the likelihood of injuries if a pitcher throws less pitches per inning?

I'm just wondering what people focus on when they're trying to predict injuries or protect pitchers from injuries.

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I've always wondered that too

Why people talk about "innings pitched" when comparing, say Kerry Wood and Mark Prior.

Well five innings for Prior could be 60 pitches while 5 innings for wood could be 100.

But I think the reason is each inning, there is warming up (which adds pitches) and the general hot/cold of the body each inning, and that effect will darf the specific amount of "on record" pitches

by Galt on Mar 1, 2007 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Innings Pitched = Easier than pitches thrown

Dukes is Jurastically better than Bradley. After all Dukes has been playing baseball ever since T-ball.

by pedrophile on Mar 1, 2007 5:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

IP=outs, pitches=amount of work

But I think the reason is each inning, there is warming up (which adds pitches) and the general hot/cold of the body each inning, and that effect will darf the specific amount of "on record" pitches

I doubt that. In fact, quite he opposite. The difference between warming up 6 times or 6 is not nearly as great as throwihg 15 pitches in each of two innings and 30 in one.

Innings Pitched = Easier than pitches thrown

I think that is right. But its important to remember innings pitched is actually the number of outs a pitcher gets. It may sometimes correlate well to amount of work, but that isn't what you are actually measuring.

I suspect that starters on a team generally throw about the same number of pitches per start regardless of how many innings they pitch in the course of a year. The Twins, for instance, have their pitchers at around 100 pitches for most of the year. How many innings they pitch is determined by how well they use those 100 pitches to get batters out.

by TT on Mar 2, 2007 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

with you on the twins, but other teams are not so good with this.

BTW - when I said IP is easier I was talking about my own laziness and others. It is easier to find the numbers of IP for pitchers, much more so than pitches thrown.

Dukes is Jurastically better than Bradley. After all Dukes has been playing baseball ever since T-ball.

by pedrophile on Mar 3, 2007 7:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pitch Counts

It is easier to find the numbers of IP for pitchers, much more so than pitches thrown.

I understood that and was agreeing with you. I use innings pitched sometimes to indicate how much someone pitched. But it isn't really a very good measure. For one thing its different for starters and relievers.

with you on the twins, but other teams are not so good with this.

I think for any team you would find that the number of pitches starters throw is a lot more similar than the number of outs (i.e. IP) they have.

by TT on Mar 3, 2007 8:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by pedrophile on Mar 1, 2007 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't most

Pithcers(especially rookie ones) wear down towards the end of the season?

by Bondomania on Mar 1, 2007 11:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A lot of times

they do. Because it's something you don't really know how to prepare for yet. If you've never thrown 200 innings, you can't prepare your body to do it.

by Tyler on Mar 2, 2007 1:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs