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Community/Composite Top 100 Comparison

I did an average of the 4 'reputable' Top 100 lists that I know about so far to generate a 'composite' Top 100.  The 4 lists are from Top Prospect Alert, Baseball Digest Daily, Project Prospect and Sports Illustrated.  Actually, the SI list is a Top 75 but they have 25 Honorable mentions.  For the HMs, I used a value of 88, which is about the midpoint between 75 and 100.  This is not perfect but it's better than using a value of 76 because it doesnt skew the results as much.  I wanted to include this list because I wanted a larger sample and because it's by Kevin Goldstein so it's one of the better lists.  Basically, almost all you had to do to make the composite top 100 was to be ranked on at least 2 lists, altho there were 4 such guys that didnt quite make it.

Here is the Composite list, along side our list:

                   Community Composite Difference
Alex    Gordon        1    1.3    -0.3
Delmon    Young        2    2.0    0.0
Daisuke    Matsuzaka    2.5    3.0    -0.5
Phillip    Hughes        3    3.3    -0.3
Homer    Bailey        5    4.5    0.5
Brandon    Wood        4    5.3    -1.3
Cameron    Maybin        7    8.8    -1.8
Jay    Bruce        13    10.0    3.0
Troy    Tulowitzki    12    10.8    1.3
Justin    Upton        9    11.0    -2.0
Andrew    McCutchen    16    11.8    4.3
Chris    Young        8    12.0    -4.0
Billy    Butler        6    14.5    -8.5
Matt    Garza        10    14.8    -4.8
Andrew    Miller        23    15.0    8.0
Evan    Longoria    19    17.0    2.0
Mike    Pelfrey        21    17.5    3.5
Reid    Brignac        14    17.5    -3.5
Scott    Elbert        26    18.0    8.0
Yovani    Gallardo    22    19.3    2.8
Carlos    Gonzalez    17    19.3    -2.3
Adam    Miller        18    21.3    -3.3
Tim    Lincecum    20    21.8    -1.8
Andy    LaRoche        11    22.3    -11.3
Jose    Tabata        24    23.3    0.8
Ryan    Braun        25    23.8    1.3
Fernando Martinez    27    28.0    -1.0
Luke    Hochevar    28    31.0    -3.0
Clayton    Kershaw        29    33.3    -4.3
Colby    Rasmus        36    34.0    2.0
James    Loney        32    34.3    -2.3
Adam    Jones        30    34.3    -4.3
Jason    Hirsh        31    34.8    -3.8
Joey    Votto        35    35.8    -0.8
Nick    Adenhart    34    36.0    -2.0
Jeff    Niemann        37    37.3    -0.3
Adam    Lind        40    37.8    2.3
Jacoby    Ellsbury    41    39.3    1.8
Hunter    Pence        33    40.0    -7.0
Jarrod    Saltalamacchia    47    41.5    5.5
Felix    Pie        42    42.0    0.0
Josh    Fields        45    44.5    0.5
Jeff    Clement        59    46.5    12.5
Chuck    Lofgren        54    47.8    6.3
Elvis    Andrus        63    49.0    14.0
Clay    Buchholz    61    49.3    11.8
Travis    Buck        67    51.3    15.8
Daric    Barton        38    51.3    -13.3
Franklin Morales    51    53.0    -2.0
Travis     Snider        50    53.0    -3.0
Ian    Stewart        46    54.0    -8.0
John    Danks        48    54.5    -6.5
Troy    Patton        60    55.3    4.8
Bill    Rowell        49    55.3    -6.3
Carlos    Carrasco    71    57.8    13.3
Dexter    Fowler        68    58.5    9.5
Kevin    Kouzmanoff    52    58.5    -6.5
Chris    Iannetta    43    58.5    -15.5
Eric    Hurley        53    59.0    -6.0
Donald    Veal        64    59.8    4.3
Jake    McGee        58    61.0    -3.0
Ryan    Sweeney        55    63.5    -8.5
Phillip    Humber        44    64.8    -20.8
Kevin     Slowey        57    65.0    -8.0
Elijah    Dukes        15    65.3    -50.3
Neil    Walker        NR    65.8    NA
Will    Inman        69    66.8    2.3
Erick    Aybar        74    67.8    6.3
Brandon    Erbe        39    69.8    -30.8
Trevor    Crowe        79    70.5    8.5
Carlos    Gomez        62    70.8    -8.8
Humberto Sanchez    56    71.0    -15.0
Brad    Lincoln        82    73.8    8.3
Chris    Volstad        87    74.3    12.8
Dustin    Pedroia        72    75.0    -3.0
Nolan    Reimold        90    75.3    14.8
Alberto    Callaspo    NR    78.3    NA
Craig    Hansen        NR    79.3    NA
Michael    Bowden        77    79.8    -2.8
Mark    Rogers        NR    82.8    NA
Sean    Gallagher    NR    83.3    NA
Yusmeiro Petit        NR    83.5    NA
Miguel    Montero        75    84.0    -9.0
Sean    West        93    85.5    7.5
Kory    Casto        NR    85.8    NA
Wade    Davis        66    86.8    -20.8
Gio    Gonzalez    78    87.5    -9.5
Tyler    Clippard    NR    87.5    NA
Blake    DeWitt        95    87.8    7.3
Anthony    Swarzak        91    88.3    2.8
Ubaldo    Jimenez        86    88.3    -2.3
Micah    Owings        NR    88.5    NA
Cesar    Carrillo    97    89.8    7.3
Jeremy     Hellickson    94    90.3    3.8
Mitch    Talbot        NR    90.8    NA
Kurt    Suzuki        98    91.3    6.8
Eric    Campbell    76    91.5    -15.5
Thomas    Diamond        NR    91.5    NA
Jonathan Sanchez    81    92.5    -11.5
Daniel    Bard        NR    92.8    NA

Comparing this to our list, there are 4 guys that are on both lists where the rankings are more than 20 places off:  Dukes, Humber, Davis and Erbe.  As you would expect, Dukes was by far the farthest off at 50.6 places.  I was surprised that we were farther off on Erbe than we were on Humber.  In all 4 cases, our rank was higher than the composite rank.  

There also were 3 other guys who were ranked higher than 80 on our list that didnt make the Composite top 100:  Guzman (#65), Parmelee (#70) and Lubanski (#73).  There also were 3 guys who were ranked higher than on the composite list that didnt make our list:  Walker (65.8), Callaspo (78.3) and Hansen (79.3).  So you could say that these were more than 20 places off also.  

The farthest on a guy that we were lower than the rank on the composite list was Buck (#67) at 15.8 places.  Next were Reimold (#90 - 14.8) and Andrus (#63 - 14.0).

Also, there were a couple guys (besides Dukes) that were off by a larger number of places than their rank on our list:  Butler (#6 - 8.5 places) and LaRoche (#11 - 11.3 places).

There were 12 guys on the composite list that arent on ours, and 13 guys on our list that arent on the composite list.

So, w a few exceptions, our list jibes pretty well w the composite list, more so than I would have expected.  I think our list is better than the composite list, partly because the other lists were done earlier and we have the benefit of info now that wasnt as available then (e.g., Rogers' surgery and Joba's HWL performance), and partly also I think because we were a large group of fairly knowledgeable people and were able to debate the merits of the players.

I could make a lot of other comments, but I wont right now.  Basically, in spite of a few problems, I've enjoyed the entire process, and I've learned some things.  I'm sure many of you can say the same.  Props to all who participated and especially to those who ran the polls.

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Nice job
Thanks for doing this, RHD.  It's very informative.

Now everyone can see why I kept pushing for Neil Walker's inclusion on our list.  :)

by doug frobel on Feb 6, 2007 11:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Question
How hard would it be for you to list the players in order of discrepancy?

I would love to see the list in order of the +/- of the highest to lowest. This will show players we overrate and underrate. Just looking at the list I think it's crazy how low Daric Barton and some guys are on some lists. But it also shows us some guys like E.Andrus are probably too low on our lists.

Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Feb 7, 2007 2:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Here ya go, sorted by diff
        Community    Composite    Difference
Travis Buck    67    51.3    15.8
Nolan Reimold    90    75.3    14.8
Elvis Andrus    63    49.0    14.0
Carlos Carrasco    71    57.8    13.3
Chris Volstad    87    74.3    12.8
Jeff Clement    59    46.5    12.5
Clay Buchholz    61    49.3    11.8
Dexter Fowler    68    58.5    9.5
Trevor Crowe    79    70.5    8.5
Brad Lincoln    82    73.8    8.3
Andrew Miller    23    15.0    8.0
Scott Elbert    26    18.0    8.0
Sean West    93    85.5    7.5
Blake DeWitt    95    87.8    7.3
Cesar Carrillo    97    89.8    7.3
Kurt Suzuki    98    91.3    6.8
Chuck Lofgren    54    47.8    6.3
Erick Aybar    74    67.8    6.3
Jarrod Saltalamacchia    47    41.5    5.5
Troy Patton    60    55.3    4.8
Andrew McCutchen    16    11.8    4.3
Donald Veal    64    59.8    4.3
Jeremy Hellickson    94    90.3    3.8
Mike Pelfrey    21    17.5    3.5
Jay Bruce    13    10.0    3.0
Yovani Gallardo    22    19.3    2.8
Anthony Swarzak    91    88.3    2.8
Adam Lind    40    37.8    2.3
Will Inman    69    66.8    2.3
Evan Longoria    19    17.0    2.0
Colby Rasmus    36    34.0    2.0
Jacoby Ellsbury    41    39.3    1.8
Troy Tulowitzki    12    10.8    1.3
Ryan Braun    25    23.8    1.3
Jose Tabata    24    23.3    0.8
Homer Bailey    5    4.5    0.5
Josh Fields    45    44.5    0.5
Delmon Young    2    2.0    0.0
Felix Pie    42    42.0    0.0
Alex Gordon    1    1.3    -0.3
Phillip Hughes    3    3.3    -0.3
Jeff Niemann    37    37.3    -0.3
Daisuke Matsuzaka    2.5    3.0    -0.5
Joey Votto    35    35.8    -0.8
Fernando Martinez    27    28.0    -1.0
Brandon Wood    4    5.3    -1.3
Cameron Maybin    7    8.8    -1.8
Tim Lincecum    20    21.8    -1.8
Justin Upton    9    11.0    -2.0
Nick Adenhart    34    36.0    -2.0
Franklin Morales    51    53.0    -2.0
Carlos Gonzalez    17    19.3    -2.3
James Loney    32    34.3    -2.3
Ubaldo Jimenez    86    88.3    -2.3
Michael Bowden    77    79.8    -2.8
Luke Hochevar    28    31.0    -3.0
Travis Snider    50    53.0    -3.0
Jake McGee    58    61.0    -3.0
Dustin Pedroia    72    75.0    -3.0
Adam Miller    18    21.3    -3.3
Reid Brignac    14    17.5    -3.5
Jason Hirsh    31    34.8    -3.8
Chris Young    8    12.0    -4.0
Clayton Kershaw    29    33.3    -4.3
Adam Jones    30    34.3    -4.3
Matt Garza    10    14.8    -4.8
Eric Hurley    53    59.0    -6.0
Bill Rowell    49    55.3    -6.3
John Danks    48    54.5    -6.5
Kevin Kouzmanoff    52    58.5    -6.5
Hunter Pence    33    40.0    -7.0
Ian Stewart    46    54.0    -8.0
Kevin Slowey    57    65.0    -8.0
Billy Butler    6    14.5    -8.5
Ryan Sweeney    55    63.5    -8.5
Carlos Gomez    62    70.8    -8.8
Miguel Montero    75    84.0    -9.0
Gio Gonzalez    78    87.5    -9.5
Andy LaRoche    11    22.3    -11.3
Jonathan Sanchez    81    92.5    -11.5
Daric Barton    38    51.3    -13.3
Humberto Sanchez    56    71.0    -15.0
Chris Iannetta    43    58.5    -15.5
Eric Campbell    76    91.5    -15.5
Phillip Humber    44    64.8    -20.8
Wade Davis    66    86.8    -20.8
Brandon Erbe    39    69.8    -30.8
Elijah Dukes    15    65.3    -50.3
Neil Walker    NR    65.8    NA
Alberto Callaspo    NR    78.3    NA
Craig Hansen    NR    79.3    NA
Mark Rogers    NR    82.8    NA
Sean Gallagher    NR    83.3    NA
Yusmeiro Petit    NR    83.5    NA
Kory Casto    NR    85.8    NA
Tyler Clippard    NR    87.5    NA
Micah Owings    NR    88.5    NA
Mitch Talbot    NR    90.8    NA
Thomas Diamond    NR    91.5    NA
Daniel Bard    NR    92.8    NA
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." -Red Barber

by e 6 on Feb 7, 2007 12:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

haha
Everyone can agree on two things, Delmon at #2 and Felix Pie at #42!

by limozeen on Feb 7, 2007 1:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

awesome
thanks!
Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Feb 7, 2007 2:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My question
Do we have a grade scale to determine the rankings of the Farm Systems?

How many prospects do the Rays have overall in this list?

by The Rocc on Feb 7, 2007 9:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting, although
with guys at the back end of the list, it's very hard to tell if we're more than 20 spots apart from others.  Some of the guys who made our list but not others might have been in the 100 - 110 range in the composite and thus fairly close, while some guys who made our list but not all of the lists which compose the composite might be further off.  For example, Eric Campbell didn't make everyone's top 100, and was 91.5 on the composite.  The lists that he didn't make, he was weighted a 101, but if the lists he missed he missed by a lot, then he should have had a much lower relative weight (i.e. if he would have been #215 on the poll where he missed, then his composite score should actually be closer to 130 than to 91).  

As might be expected in this voting format, the most polarizing prospects (Dukes, Erbe) tended to be the most overrated versus the experts, while the most understated tended to be underrated versus the experts.  

by Brickhaus on Feb 7, 2007 10:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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