Community/Composite Top 100 Comparison
I did an average of the 4 'reputable' Top 100 lists that I know about so far to generate a 'composite' Top 100. The 4 lists are from Top Prospect Alert, Baseball Digest Daily, Project Prospect and Sports Illustrated. Actually, the SI list is a Top 75 but they have 25 Honorable mentions. For the HMs, I used a value of 88, which is about the midpoint between 75 and 100. This is not perfect but it's better than using a value of 76 because it doesnt skew the results as much. I wanted to include this list because I wanted a larger sample and because it's by Kevin Goldstein so it's one of the better lists. Basically, almost all you had to do to make the composite top 100 was to be ranked on at least 2 lists, altho there were 4 such guys that didnt quite make it.
Here is the Composite list, along side our list:
Community Composite Difference
Alex Gordon 1 1.3 -0.3
Delmon Young 2 2.0 0.0
Daisuke Matsuzaka 2.5 3.0 -0.5
Phillip Hughes 3 3.3 -0.3
Homer Bailey 5 4.5 0.5
Brandon Wood 4 5.3 -1.3
Cameron Maybin 7 8.8 -1.8
Jay Bruce 13 10.0 3.0
Troy Tulowitzki 12 10.8 1.3
Justin Upton 9 11.0 -2.0
Andrew McCutchen 16 11.8 4.3
Chris Young 8 12.0 -4.0
Billy Butler 6 14.5 -8.5
Matt Garza 10 14.8 -4.8
Andrew Miller 23 15.0 8.0
Evan Longoria 19 17.0 2.0
Mike Pelfrey 21 17.5 3.5
Reid Brignac 14 17.5 -3.5
Scott Elbert 26 18.0 8.0
Yovani Gallardo 22 19.3 2.8
Carlos Gonzalez 17 19.3 -2.3
Adam Miller 18 21.3 -3.3
Tim Lincecum 20 21.8 -1.8
Andy LaRoche 11 22.3 -11.3
Jose Tabata 24 23.3 0.8
Ryan Braun 25 23.8 1.3
Fernando Martinez 27 28.0 -1.0
Luke Hochevar 28 31.0 -3.0
Clayton Kershaw 29 33.3 -4.3
Colby Rasmus 36 34.0 2.0
James Loney 32 34.3 -2.3
Adam Jones 30 34.3 -4.3
Jason Hirsh 31 34.8 -3.8
Joey Votto 35 35.8 -0.8
Nick Adenhart 34 36.0 -2.0
Jeff Niemann 37 37.3 -0.3
Adam Lind 40 37.8 2.3
Jacoby Ellsbury 41 39.3 1.8
Hunter Pence 33 40.0 -7.0
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 47 41.5 5.5
Felix Pie 42 42.0 0.0
Josh Fields 45 44.5 0.5
Jeff Clement 59 46.5 12.5
Chuck Lofgren 54 47.8 6.3
Elvis Andrus 63 49.0 14.0
Clay Buchholz 61 49.3 11.8
Travis Buck 67 51.3 15.8
Daric Barton 38 51.3 -13.3
Franklin Morales 51 53.0 -2.0
Travis Snider 50 53.0 -3.0
Ian Stewart 46 54.0 -8.0
John Danks 48 54.5 -6.5
Troy Patton 60 55.3 4.8
Bill Rowell 49 55.3 -6.3
Carlos Carrasco 71 57.8 13.3
Dexter Fowler 68 58.5 9.5
Kevin Kouzmanoff 52 58.5 -6.5
Chris Iannetta 43 58.5 -15.5
Eric Hurley 53 59.0 -6.0
Donald Veal 64 59.8 4.3
Jake McGee 58 61.0 -3.0
Ryan Sweeney 55 63.5 -8.5
Phillip Humber 44 64.8 -20.8
Kevin Slowey 57 65.0 -8.0
Elijah Dukes 15 65.3 -50.3
Neil Walker NR 65.8 NA
Will Inman 69 66.8 2.3
Erick Aybar 74 67.8 6.3
Brandon Erbe 39 69.8 -30.8
Trevor Crowe 79 70.5 8.5
Carlos Gomez 62 70.8 -8.8
Humberto Sanchez 56 71.0 -15.0
Brad Lincoln 82 73.8 8.3
Chris Volstad 87 74.3 12.8
Dustin Pedroia 72 75.0 -3.0
Nolan Reimold 90 75.3 14.8
Alberto Callaspo NR 78.3 NA
Craig Hansen NR 79.3 NA
Michael Bowden 77 79.8 -2.8
Mark Rogers NR 82.8 NA
Sean Gallagher NR 83.3 NA
Yusmeiro Petit NR 83.5 NA
Miguel Montero 75 84.0 -9.0
Sean West 93 85.5 7.5
Kory Casto NR 85.8 NA
Wade Davis 66 86.8 -20.8
Gio Gonzalez 78 87.5 -9.5
Tyler Clippard NR 87.5 NA
Blake DeWitt 95 87.8 7.3
Anthony Swarzak 91 88.3 2.8
Ubaldo Jimenez 86 88.3 -2.3
Micah Owings NR 88.5 NA
Cesar Carrillo 97 89.8 7.3
Jeremy Hellickson 94 90.3 3.8
Mitch Talbot NR 90.8 NA
Kurt Suzuki 98 91.3 6.8
Eric Campbell 76 91.5 -15.5
Thomas Diamond NR 91.5 NA
Jonathan Sanchez 81 92.5 -11.5
Daniel Bard NR 92.8 NA
Comparing this to our list, there are 4 guys that are on both lists where the rankings are more than 20 places off: Dukes, Humber, Davis and Erbe. As you would expect, Dukes was by far the farthest off at 50.6 places. I was surprised that we were farther off on Erbe than we were on Humber. In all 4 cases, our rank was higher than the composite rank.
There also were 3 other guys who were ranked higher than 80 on our list that didnt make the Composite top 100: Guzman (#65), Parmelee (#70) and Lubanski (#73). There also were 3 guys who were ranked higher than on the composite list that didnt make our list: Walker (65.8), Callaspo (78.3) and Hansen (79.3). So you could say that these were more than 20 places off also.
The farthest on a guy that we were lower than the rank on the composite list was Buck (#67) at 15.8 places. Next were Reimold (#90 - 14.8) and Andrus (#63 - 14.0).
Also, there were a couple guys (besides Dukes) that were off by a larger number of places than their rank on our list: Butler (#6 - 8.5 places) and LaRoche (#11 - 11.3 places).
There were 12 guys on the composite list that arent on ours, and 13 guys on our list that arent on the composite list.
So, w a few exceptions, our list jibes pretty well w the composite list, more so than I would have expected. I think our list is better than the composite list, partly because the other lists were done earlier and we have the benefit of info now that wasnt as available then (e.g., Rogers' surgery and Joba's HWL performance), and partly also I think because we were a large group of fairly knowledgeable people and were able to debate the merits of the players.
I could make a lot of other comments, but I wont right now. Basically, in spite of a few problems, I've enjoyed the entire process, and I've learned some things. I'm sure many of you can say the same. Props to all who participated and especially to those who ran the polls.
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9 comments
Comments
Nice job
Now everyone can see why I kept pushing for Neil Walker's inclusion on our list. :)
by doug frobel on Feb 6, 2007 11:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Question
I would love to see the list in order of the +/- of the highest to lowest. This will show players we overrate and underrate. Just looking at the list I think it's crazy how low Daric Barton and some guys are on some lists. But it also shows us some guys like E.Andrus are probably too low on our lists.
by pedrophile on Feb 7, 2007 2:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Here ya go, sorted by diff
Travis Buck 67 51.3 15.8
Nolan Reimold 90 75.3 14.8
Elvis Andrus 63 49.0 14.0
Carlos Carrasco 71 57.8 13.3
Chris Volstad 87 74.3 12.8
Jeff Clement 59 46.5 12.5
Clay Buchholz 61 49.3 11.8
Dexter Fowler 68 58.5 9.5
Trevor Crowe 79 70.5 8.5
Brad Lincoln 82 73.8 8.3
Andrew Miller 23 15.0 8.0
Scott Elbert 26 18.0 8.0
Sean West 93 85.5 7.5
Blake DeWitt 95 87.8 7.3
Cesar Carrillo 97 89.8 7.3
Kurt Suzuki 98 91.3 6.8
Chuck Lofgren 54 47.8 6.3
Erick Aybar 74 67.8 6.3
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 47 41.5 5.5
Troy Patton 60 55.3 4.8
Andrew McCutchen 16 11.8 4.3
Donald Veal 64 59.8 4.3
Jeremy Hellickson 94 90.3 3.8
Mike Pelfrey 21 17.5 3.5
Jay Bruce 13 10.0 3.0
Yovani Gallardo 22 19.3 2.8
Anthony Swarzak 91 88.3 2.8
Adam Lind 40 37.8 2.3
Will Inman 69 66.8 2.3
Evan Longoria 19 17.0 2.0
Colby Rasmus 36 34.0 2.0
Jacoby Ellsbury 41 39.3 1.8
Troy Tulowitzki 12 10.8 1.3
Ryan Braun 25 23.8 1.3
Jose Tabata 24 23.3 0.8
Homer Bailey 5 4.5 0.5
Josh Fields 45 44.5 0.5
Delmon Young 2 2.0 0.0
Felix Pie 42 42.0 0.0
Alex Gordon 1 1.3 -0.3
Phillip Hughes 3 3.3 -0.3
Jeff Niemann 37 37.3 -0.3
Daisuke Matsuzaka 2.5 3.0 -0.5
Joey Votto 35 35.8 -0.8
Fernando Martinez 27 28.0 -1.0
Brandon Wood 4 5.3 -1.3
Cameron Maybin 7 8.8 -1.8
Tim Lincecum 20 21.8 -1.8
Justin Upton 9 11.0 -2.0
Nick Adenhart 34 36.0 -2.0
Franklin Morales 51 53.0 -2.0
Carlos Gonzalez 17 19.3 -2.3
James Loney 32 34.3 -2.3
Ubaldo Jimenez 86 88.3 -2.3
Michael Bowden 77 79.8 -2.8
Luke Hochevar 28 31.0 -3.0
Travis Snider 50 53.0 -3.0
Jake McGee 58 61.0 -3.0
Dustin Pedroia 72 75.0 -3.0
Adam Miller 18 21.3 -3.3
Reid Brignac 14 17.5 -3.5
Jason Hirsh 31 34.8 -3.8
Chris Young 8 12.0 -4.0
Clayton Kershaw 29 33.3 -4.3
Adam Jones 30 34.3 -4.3
Matt Garza 10 14.8 -4.8
Eric Hurley 53 59.0 -6.0
Bill Rowell 49 55.3 -6.3
John Danks 48 54.5 -6.5
Kevin Kouzmanoff 52 58.5 -6.5
Hunter Pence 33 40.0 -7.0
Ian Stewart 46 54.0 -8.0
Kevin Slowey 57 65.0 -8.0
Billy Butler 6 14.5 -8.5
Ryan Sweeney 55 63.5 -8.5
Carlos Gomez 62 70.8 -8.8
Miguel Montero 75 84.0 -9.0
Gio Gonzalez 78 87.5 -9.5
Andy LaRoche 11 22.3 -11.3
Jonathan Sanchez 81 92.5 -11.5
Daric Barton 38 51.3 -13.3
Humberto Sanchez 56 71.0 -15.0
Chris Iannetta 43 58.5 -15.5
Eric Campbell 76 91.5 -15.5
Phillip Humber 44 64.8 -20.8
Wade Davis 66 86.8 -20.8
Brandon Erbe 39 69.8 -30.8
Elijah Dukes 15 65.3 -50.3
Neil Walker NR 65.8 NA
Alberto Callaspo NR 78.3 NA
Craig Hansen NR 79.3 NA
Mark Rogers NR 82.8 NA
Sean Gallagher NR 83.3 NA
Yusmeiro Petit NR 83.5 NA
Kory Casto NR 85.8 NA
Tyler Clippard NR 87.5 NA
Micah Owings NR 88.5 NA
Mitch Talbot NR 90.8 NA
Thomas Diamond NR 91.5 NA
Daniel Bard NR 92.8 NA
by e 6 on Feb 7, 2007 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
awesome
by pedrophile on Feb 7, 2007 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My question
How many prospects do the Rays have overall in this list?
by The Rocc on Feb 7, 2007 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting, although
As might be expected in this voting format, the most polarizing prospects (Dukes, Erbe) tended to be the most overrated versus the experts, while the most understated tended to be underrated versus the experts.
by Brickhaus on Feb 7, 2007 10:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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