Curtis Granderson Crystal Ball

"winning a World Championship with the Cubs in 2038."

I thought these were supposed to be realistic?

I love the Crystal Balls but I notice that the past actual season (in Curtis' case 2006) always contains a career high for most players. This time around it's near career high in runs (90 in 06, high CB of 92), and 66 BB is two off of the CB high of 68.

From what I remember reading this guy was suppossed to be a 20-20 guy waiting to happen. No projected 100 rbi seasons no 20 sb seasons, I think if he gets off the leadoff spot he can do better personally but who knows.

Granderson's SB's are hurt by the fact that Leyland doesn't "believe" in stealing bases unless the situation calls for it, as opposed to doing it just for the sake of padding the stat.  I think Granderson could steal 25+ once Leyland is no longer his manager.

Kinda surprised he did not end up a Yankee however. Just a feeling I have that this guy will be wearing pinstripes in the future.

i actually think he'll run a little bit more but hit for a lower average. lots of seasons in the .290 range seems optimistic to me--the guy is a very poor hitter for contact. but his walk rate is very sound and he'll pop about 20 HR a year in his prime, which makes him a good player.

do you think 62 is?  Leyland looks about 62 to me.  

Although while Granderson is no Carl Crawford, I think there is very little chance he goes his whole career without a single season where he reaches double digit steals.  IMO it's not Leyland holding Granderson back, it's Granderson who needs to improve his base stealing skills.  Carlos Guillen managed to steal 20 bases under Leyland, and Carlos Guillen has a history of knee problems and less speed than Curtis.  I'm predicting Granderson swipes about 10-12 this year.

Also, as far as I know, Granderson has been quite durable throughout his major and minor league career.  I'm surprised to not see a single season where he reaches 160 GP.  He reminds me of Brandon Inge who is ready to go every day of the season, even if he probably could use a breather.  Inge played 160 in 2005 and 159 last year.  Maybe Granderson never improves vs LHP and finds himself on the bench against them more often in the future?

So he's only as good as Chet Lemon?
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Chet-Lemon.shtml

Some of the numbers are strangely close.

... after watching the adjustments he made in the playoffs, I really think hes going to improve this season. Though its obviously a small sample size, he had a 4/3 BB/K ratio though the AL playoffs. He, like most of the Tigers, looked like crap against the Cards, but he only had 3 Ks in 32 ABs against the Yankees and A's. That was facing some very good pitchers including two lefties that can strike people out (Big Unit and Zito - I know Zito doesnt have  a great K rate but he can strike poeple out), as well as guys like Harden, Haren and Mussina.

If he does hit, the Tigers are in for another great year. They were rolling while he was hitting this year and struggled when he was struggling. I think he, as well as Verlander, will be the keys to the Tigers season this year.

Can anyone tell me how this "crystal ball" is generated?

So this is not computer-generated, but rather just an opinion?

I was involved in an interesting discussion during the season about Granderson's speed, since BBHQ's "speed score" shows that he's a lot faster than you could tell from the SB totals, and in pre-season, he stole a lot.  I convinced myself that the people who were arguing that Granderson could steal more were probably right, BUT...

Placido Polanco is one of the best hit-and-run batters in the majors, almost always making contact, regardless of the count, grounding the ball where it needs to go, and essentially hitting about the same as he does when the H&R isn't on (or better).  I think that hitting in front of Polanco makes it a lot easier for Leyland to make that call instead of a straight steal with Granderson, who's fast, but not a great thief.

So, in short, I convinced myself that the time to grab Granderson in roto is the season when it appears that he won't be batting in front of Polanco.  For "real" baseball (and sim games), I don't think the ~10 steals he's losing are making much difference to his value to the Tigers.  Everyone knows he's fast, so opposing managers have to watch him, which leaves the hole on the right side open.

makes good sense to me.  Thanks for responding.