Injury writers besides Will Carroll

by Guyute on Feb 24, 2007 7:44 PM EST Comment 13 comments

I was wondering if anyone knew of or could suggest writers/sites besides Will Carroll's work on BP that focus on player injuries and future injury probability?

I like Will's stuff but usually decide to just buy the book and forgo the website. Who else is out there that's worth reading?

Thanks for the help.

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Rick Wilton from HQ

He writes the "Dr. HQ" column on the site, and now has a new book covering injuries in detail for all players:

http://www.baseballhq.com/books/bir.shtml

by FunWithHeadlines on Feb 24, 2007 8:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

had his newsletter last year

I think I paid $10 for the year on some kind of deal - it was good info.

I still like Carroll's stuff and really enjoyed his Saving the Pitcher book.

by UCFKnights on Feb 24, 2007 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

I'm pretty convinced that the average fan can approximate what Carroll does in a few easy steps.

Who is at risk for injury:
-Pitchers
-Starting pitchers
-Young pitchers
-Previously injured pitchers (specifically arm and shoulder)
-Pitchers who have had arm pain but haven't sat out yet
-Pitchers with bad mechanics
-Pitchers who pitch a lot
-Pitchers who have max-effort deliveries
-Pitchers who throw too many high-effort breaking balls

It's pretty common sense, but Will Carroll basically applies these guidelines. He just happens to have access to better information on mechanics, workload, hidden injuries, etc.

Injuries for hitters are a lot more fluky, but out-of-shape, play dangerously, or are simply brittle are most likely to get injured.

by limozeen on Feb 24, 2007 8:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well, he does more than that

His value lies not just predicting who may get injured in the upcoming season, but in his access to a team's staff to get information regarding injuries as they occur, or when teams are covering up injuries. During the season, I don't think there's better coverage for player injuries than his column

by andwoo on Feb 24, 2007 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's going to change....

Now that MLB changed the rules as far as injury disclosures and such, his job becomes a bit tougher this year. Trainers aren't going to be able to be as specific on the record with he and his type as they have been in the past.

by UCFKnights on Feb 24, 2007 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well...

O.K., but if that's the "value" he presents then it has to be severely compromised by his tendency to report erroneous information.

Whether it's about the mechanics of the gyroball, the big deals we're still waiting for that were reported in the 'Wills Mill' columns, Chris Carpenter's pitching schedule during the NCLS, or Roy Halladay's forearm 'trouble' this Spring, he's pretty consistently one of the least accurate writers around. He's a persistent self-promoter, however, which probably makes him credible in most people's eyes.

by FI on Feb 24, 2007 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure what you mean by least accurate

I'm confused how you know those deals at the meetings were not talked about. I don't believe he ever said the deals were going to happen, much like Gammons doesn't say so. They just report what they hear. Halliday has had forearm issues, often times it is a precursor to TJ surgery, in Halliday's case, thankfully, that has not been the issue. Don't see how he was wrong in reporting that he had forearm tightness because he does have forearm tightness.

by andwoo on Feb 25, 2007 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

inaccurate

I don't know that his rumors come true less often than most writers'. His signal-to-noise ratio seems low for the amount of hype it gets, though. "Will's Mill" is a flurry of front office discussions and desires, and maybe 10 percent shakes out. If we're just throwing stuff at the wall, I'll stick with Gammons (whom I also don't trust, but whom I grew up not trusting).

by whichthat on Feb 25, 2007 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

follow-up

Well, his rumor writing interests me least and it's probably true that he's no worse than a lot of other people. But suggesting Lee Gronkiewicz and Shelly Duncan would be early Rule 5 picks last winter is an example of the kind of thing that suspects a lot of what he writes is either pure speculation or coming from sketchy sources.

And that's just a small example. Anyone remember when he kept reporting that Pete Rose was back in baseball, even after MLB officially denied any such agreement?

by FI on Feb 25, 2007 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Other than Will

I'm biased towards Will ... wait, I am Will, so I'll stop writing in the third person.

A) Rick Wilton has been around longer. Stephania Bell does nice work at Rotowire. Both are behind subscription walls that actually cost more than BP, so YMMV depending on how you spend your fantasy dollar.

B) I'd say I'm as accurate as most. Not near 100%, but it doesn't seem like people understand the nature of the reporting. By trying to get "ahead of the news" you also risk having the story take a turn. Read this sentence carefully: the information in Will's Mill is accurate even if what I'm reporting doesn't eventually occur. I can't figure that Carlos Lee is going to take the lesser offer or that Kansas City would come over the top with an extra year on Gil Meche until it actually happens. I would be interested to see how accurate last year's Mills were.

C) Common sense: sure, I think you could and do. I try to add value above and beyond that. Maybe I do, maybe I don't, to you. If you think you can do it better, go ahead. I just do the best I can. The point about the new disclosure rules above is very true. Without solid contacts willing to talk to you, you'll be third-hand information at best.

by injuryexpert on Feb 25, 2007 6:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

haha

I was going to say..your username seemed a little pretentious but I guess it makes sense now.

And I don't mean to sound like I think anyone can be an injury expert. What I'm saying is that it's no voodoo science and there's no magic formula...the risk factors are pretty obvious to anyone who has ever heard the words 'forearm pain'. It's the contacts, inside information, and experience in recognizing warning signs that subscribers pay for.

My biggest complaint with injury reporting really has nothing to do with the reporters. It's those people who take the Word of Carroll to be next to the word of the baby jesus. You get these alarmists who come and post 'omg caroll says carlos zambranos elbow is gonna esplode sp?' Clearly there is a methodology to figuring out who is more likely to get injured, but to my knowledge no one has invented the magic never-wrong formula yet.

by limozeen on Feb 25, 2007 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Never-Wrong

Yeah, call me when you find that never-wrong formula. I'm wrong a lot, certainly more than I'd like because of the changing nature of the game. Did people tell me Duncan and Gronk were being looked at? Yes. Were they wrong? I don't know. I know no one expected all the Rule 5 picks and I'd defy you to find anyone that saw the Hamilton pick coming. I think you know what you get with the Mills. I tell you what people are talking about, not that "THIS IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN RIGHT NOW." To me, the process is often more interesting than the results.

Not perfect, always willing to admit it and try to get better.

by injuryexpert on Feb 26, 2007 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

As a reader

I know to take what you write with a grain of salt. But for some reason, it seems like a lot of people expet you to be better (read: more accurate) than traditional baseball writers.

Maybe it's because we think of you as one of our own--rather than a "journalist." The bar's higher, whether that's fair or not.

In any event, keep doing what you're doing, though I still long for the days when you ran the old (free) daily UTK newsletters. Back when the Internet was young and words like "premium" and "insider" referred to country clubs and not Web sites. Sigh...

by Yakker on Feb 27, 2007 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs