****Fantasy Minor League Draft Reivew*****
Here are the results from a brand new 5X5 fantasy league of which I am member. Rather than just posting the draft and letting people have at it, I thought I would go through my picks, give my rationale, and let people have some insight into my thought process. I do NOT profess to be an expert, just a guy that likes baseball, watching it, reading about it, playing fantasy versions of it. I figure there are couple guys like me in each of your leagues, so I thought doing a show my hand diary might be more useful than just posting this list and moving along. Also, it will be helpful for me to hear comments about my draft.
My thought processes and biases. This is the first time that I've done a minor league draft. An NL only league does a mini, two round draft each year. So, this draft is already four times deeper than that. Plus, my bias is NL guys since I've been reading about them for the past three or four years to keep up with that league. Either because of my bias or something else, I ended up with all NL players.
My second bias is that I wanted to gravitate towards guys who were close to ready or projectable. Again repeating that I'm not expert, I trusted the guys who are. For the first seven rounds, I did NOT have John's book. However, I had complied his newsletters together and had taken all the guys he ranked B+ or higher and made a list of them. I then compared that against Kevin Goldstein's lists at BP, to determine consensus rankings. After I had those, I compared them against the PECOTA numbers. I used PECOTA only to break out and not ties, or at least ties in my mind.
2007 SCFBL Minor League Draft Order
Round 1
- Chris: Delmon Young, OF, TB
- Matt: Alex Gordon, 3B, KC
- Nik: Philip Hughes, SP, NYY
- Scott: Brandon Wood, SS, LAA
- Jesse: Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
- Zach: Matt Garza, SP, MIN
- Jason: Chris Young, OF, ARI
- Mike: Justin Upton, OF, ARI
- Ryan: Billy Butler, OF, KC
- JJ: Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM
- Kenny: Cameron Maybin, OF, DET
- Stephen: Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
- Stephen: Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT
- Kenny: Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
- JJ: Hunter Pence, OF, HOU
- Ryan: Jay Bruce, OF, CIN
- Mike: Scott Elbert, SP, LAD
- Jason: Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
- Zach: Andrew Miller, SP, DET
- Jesse: Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD
- Scott: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL
- Nik: Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL
- Matt: Luke Hochevar, SP, KC
- Chris: Adam Miller, SP, MIN
- Chris: Felix Pie, OF, CHC
- Matt: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS
- Nik: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI
- Scott: Reid Brignac, SS, TB
- Jesse: Elijah Dukes, OF, TB
- Zach: Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM
- Jason: Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD
- Mike: Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA
- Ryan: Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
- JJ: Joe Koshansky, 1B, COL
- Kenny: Jose Tabata, OF, NYY
- Stephen: Donald Veal, SP, CHC
- Stephen: Chris Iannetta, C, COL
- Kenny: Chuck Lofgren, SP, CLE
- JJ: Josh Fields, 3B, CHW
- Ryan: Billy Rowell, 3B, BAL
- Mike: Adam Lind, TOR, OF
- Jason: Colby Rasmus, OF, STL
- Zach: Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS
- Jesse: Travis Snider, OF, TOR
- Scott: William Inman, SP, MIL
- Matt: Eric Hurley, SP, TEX
- Chris: Brandon Erbe, SP, BAL
- Chris: Erick Aybar, SS, LAA
- Matt: Adam Jones, OF, SEA
- Nik: Jeff Niemann, SP, TB
- Scott: Nick Adenhart, SP, LAA
- Jesse: Philip Humber, SP, NYM
- Zach: Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS
- Jason: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, ATL
- Mike: Ryan Sweeney, OF, CWS
- Ryan: Jacob McGee, SP, TB
- JJ: Chris Volstad, SP, FLA
- Kenny: Angel Villalona, 3B, SF
- Stephen: Eric Campbell, INF, ATL
- Stephen: Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN
- Kenny: Humberto Sanchez, SP, NYY
- JJ: Carlos Carrasco, SP, PHI
- Ryan: Brad Lincoln, SP, PIT
- Mike: Brandon Morrow, SP, SEA
- Jason: Eric Patterson, 2B, CHC
- Zach: Mark Pawalek, SP, CHC
- Jesse: Joba Chamberlain, SP, NYY
- Scott: Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD
- Matt: Michael Bowden, SP, BOS
- Chris: Elvis Andrus, SS, ATL
- Chris: Chris Carter, 1B, ARI
- Matt: Bryce Cox, RP, BOS
- Nik: Daniel Bard, SP, BOS
- Scott: Brent Lillibridge, SS, ATL
- Jesse: Daric Barton, 1B, OAK
- Zach: Jeff Clement, C, SEA
- Jason: Taylor Tankersley, RP, FLA
- Mike: Russ Ohlendorf, SP, NYY
- Ryan: Dexter Fowler, OF, COL
- JJ: Jeff Baker, OF, COL
- Kenny: Dellin Betances, SP, NYY
- Stephen: Franklin Morales, SP, COL
- Stephen: Chris Parmelee, OF, MIN
- Kenny: Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
- JJ: Billy Sadler, SP, SF
- Ryan: Pat Neshek, RP, MIN
- Mike: John Danks, SP, CHW
- Jason: Miguel Montero, C, ARI
- Zach: Wade Davis, SP, TB
- Jesse: Freddy Guzman, OF, TEX
- Scott: Jonathan Sanchez, SP, SF
- Nik: Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB
- Matt: Micah Owings, SP, ARI
- Chris: Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC
I also considered: Tim Lincecum. I had him down as the best pitching prospect for a 5X5 league. I didn't him take because of two reasons: A) It didn't keep with my philosophy to lock up "a sure thing" in the first round and B) My experience, which proved true later on, is that pitching prospects are always available in later rounds.
Round #2: Pick: Ryan Braun. Rationale: 20-20 potential again. I must admit that I've man crushed Ryan Braun since I saw him play last year at Huntsville. The guy can flat out hit, and hit for power. He runs the bases well, picks his spots to steal, and on top of that, he's a third baseman! (Ok, maybe not for much longer.) I can tolerate a move to a corner OF position for a 20-20 guy that I believe has a shot at hitting .300.
I also considered. Yovani Gallardo, Tulo, and Andy LaRoche. The will he or won't he develop power scared me off Tulo very early. Watching the pitching that went and the order it went, I was not wholly convinced that Yovani might bounce back to me. Pipe dream, probably, but there were a handful of quality pitchers still available, who were only a slight notch below Gallardo. This became a debate over Andy LaRoche and Ryan Braun. I read almost every post in which either was mentioned, read and re-read the major sources on each, and then went and consulted a Ouija Board. (Did you know Ouija is Microsoft's spell checker? Cultish influence runs DEEEEEEP!) Finally, I went with Braun because of the better speed and LaRoche's slight injury concerns. Honestly, this one could have went either way, except for my man crush.
Round #3: Pick: Clayton Kershaw. Seriously, do I need to justify this one? I would say that I was considering others, but I wasn't. I thanked my lucky stars and ran.
Round #4: Pick: Colby Rasmus: My other bias is sometimes I try too hard not to look like a homer. Colby is in the second tier of outfield prospects that should, if they perform as they should, break into A or A- grades next year. The speed and power combination is just too much to pass up. Plus, he's only twenty. I tried to spread this picks out in terms of distance from the majors. He's the best prospect that was on the board at the time. I tried to make a case for Travis Snider, but it just wasn't there for me.
Round #5: Pick: Salty. Geez, how the mighty have fallen! Two years ago, guys were offering ridiculous trades to try to get the number one pick to take Salty. Now, he falls to round five? I'm not going to bore you with my thoughts on Salty, but I think he still has it and will probably be traded for some pitching help during the season.
I also considered Eric Campbell and Angel Villalona, who both went later in the round. I though at my position it was too early for both. I might regret making that decision. Also, in about round number 3 I started playing a game with Kevin Kouzmanoff. Here it accelerated to full steam. Part of the game was to see how truly low he would go. Then again, part of me was screaming to take him, hold him in reserve, and trade him to someone when their third baseman goes down for the season.
Round #6: Pick: Eric Patterson. Brad Lincoln and Morrow disappeared right before my eyes and Patterson was left. I actually like Patterson a lot, and believe that he will get a call up during the summer to take over second, when Jacque Jones is dealt, probably again for pitching. See round five for my who I thought about taking, because Kouz was still there and I was seriously considering him. Why didn't I move on him? Patterson plays second, which there aren't that many great fantasy second baggers out there, so there is low requirement to be a valueable fantasy player. Possible .300 hitter and 30 steals exceeds that requirement by juuuuust a smidge. Plus, I have Braun, why do I need another third baseman.
Round #7: Pick: Taylor Tankersley. I am so smart, S-M-R-T. I had been plotting this pick since at least the fourth round, again playing fantasy chicken. Unlike Kouz, I thought I might actually pull this one off because Tankersley is not on the top 100 of ANY prospect list, and probably doesn't deserve to be. However, he's going to have a legitimate shot at closing in Florida, and that's worth a seventh round pick for me. I'm joking about being so smart, I just thought this was the right time to pull the trigger on a good opportunity.
I considered Franklin Morales here, but I'm just scared of Colorado pitchers. I believe humidors are best for Don Tomas maduros, one of the finest inexpensive cigars you will ever have. I couldn't take him.
Round #8: Pick: Miguel Montero: At the time of the pick, I typed something like, a catcher with plus power? I'll take it. Who else I considered? I"ll never tell, because at least three guys are still available.
0 recs |
26 comments
Comments
A quick note....
by Brock20 on Feb 2, 2007 7:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well.....
Interesting, a pleasure to read. I can't comment on the draft, itself, but your explanations seem sound.
by Transmission on Feb 2, 2007 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I voted MMMMM........DRAAAAAFFFTTTTT...
- Young was a good pick right off the bat--he's very low-risk and getting a good HR/SB bat makes building a team much easier. I think Butler would have been a fine choice here as well, as I think he's going to score so high in the other four categories that you can get your SBs somewhere else.
- Pick #2 was the one I disagree with most. Gallardo really isn't THAT much behind Hughes and Bailey (if at all), and yet was taken a full round and a half later. I would value him above Braun since 3B is a VERY deep position in fantasy right now. As you said though, you thought you could get pitching later, so that's more a difference in draft philosophy. I just think Gallardo was a top-10 pick that was stolen at #22. and shouldn't have been passed up.
- Kershaw's a great upside pick here, who would have gone much higher in a year. Also, the next pitchers taken were Veal and Lofgren. Biiig drop.
- Decent pick in Rasmus. I like him as well and think he's very underrated. That said, I can't help but feel there's a chance he would've been there for you next round. It might've been worth a shot to take a Travis Snider (who definitely wouldn't have been around next round) and try to catch Colby further down.
- Hard to let Salty fall further after the hype last year. If he rebounds, you're golden.
- What, you don't have a UT spot for Kouz? I'm amazed he was taken so far below Loney, as Kouz is very likely the better fantasy hitter in the future. Not many others after this pick stand out, unless you wanted to buy low on another catcher in Clement.
- Good call on Tankersley. As you said, everyone else was probably going off of top-100 lists--you took advantage of that by grabbing someone who could potentially help you out a lot this year.
- Montero went pretty low for a ready-now catcher with his offensive ability. In a bigger league, this would be a criminal pick at #90. In a 12-team, it's just a smart one.
by DrunkIrish on Feb 2, 2007 8:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
huh!
I'd be interested to know why the Elbert owner picked him over both Millers and Gallardo. I know he's got teh upside but Andrew Miller couldn't have had the signability issues in your league that he had in MLB. ;)
Or maybe I'm just missing the boat on Elbert. I'm slowly leaving the TINSTAAPP camp, but the last thing I want to gamble on with a minor-league pitcher is that his control improves a lot before/when he makes The Show.
by whichthat on Feb 2, 2007 8:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Irish....
Rasmus was picked shortly after the SI list came out with him at 26. I thought someone would read that and take him, that's why I moved on him at that point.
Loney went higher than my rankings had him. Loney is very interesting in that I think he will be a great major leaguer, but he's not a good fantasy player in that he doesn't steal bases and I don't think he will hit for power. Take two categories off the board and also signifcantly impact RBIs right there. I had Kouz higher than Loney.
In other leagues, I would very much expect that Kouz will be drafted higher than this, but not by much. I think the jury is evenly split on him, and one half won't want him and the other half will realize that they can have him at a deep discount.
by Brock20 on Feb 2, 2007 8:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i'm with you
by wily mo on Feb 2, 2007 9:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
gave you a marge
Rasmus seems like a tiny reach given that the second tier of pitching was wiped out before your next pick, but I'm not going to second-guess you and I have nothing bad to say about Rasmus.
The one pick of yours I do disagree with is Patterson, only because he plays roughly the same position as one of my pet prospects this year. If you're reluctant to discuss guys who are still on the board, I won't use his name, but suffice to say I think he does everything that Patterson does a little better (except hit for power).
Still, though: Solid draft. I don't have a bad feeling about any of those picks.
by whichthat on Feb 3, 2007 3:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey....
by Brock20 on Feb 3, 2007 8:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's still out there...
I like Patterson better because of the power potential. Casillia has zero power potential and Patterson is still a question mark. Things that I've read suggest that he could develop into the 12-15 round tripper category. I think they are comparable, with a slight nod to Patterson for the power potential.
by Brock20 on Feb 3, 2007 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
by travellin3261 on Feb 3, 2007 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More yes...
But then again, to each his own.
by Brock20 on Feb 3, 2007 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice draft.
The negatives:
(I really don't have many negatives.)
- I don't like Patterson nearly as much as you do, but I understand that if he even approaches his potential, he could be a great roto guy even if he doesn't help an MLB team much. (and as a Cubs fan, I dearly hope I'm mistaken)
- While their trend lines aren't encouraging, I think that both Ian Stewart and Daric Barton are better than they went in this draft.
The positives:
- Young falling that far is a bonus for you, IMO. This is roto, after all, and getting an HR/SB guy playing in a hitter's park with a good lineup has "franchise player" written all over it. If everything goes right for Upton, Maybin, McCutchen, in 2 years they'll be where Young is now. And two of them will be in tough hitting environments.
- Kershaw is a huge risk, but is exactly the sort of pitcher I'd take a flier on, too. There are few minor-league pitchers I'd seriously consider for a mixed-league roto format. If these guys reach less than 90% of their hype, they essentially turn into replaceable parts, as you'll be able to pick up fine, above-average SP from the waiver wire in May every year.
- Tankersley/Montero - I'm a big believer in not "constipating" a limited minor-league system. Using your last two picks on two guys who will "graduate" this year, and give you value, is great. Your league-mates will be considering which of their low-A players from 2007 to cut in 2008 so that they have room to draft more "flavor of the day" guys. You, instead, will have - at the very least - two cheap contributors and 2 minor-league slots to use. And both have nice upside for late-round picks. If you can make in-season acquisitions of minor-leaguers, you're even better off. I picked up both Fields and Loney last year in a similar format when I saw them going off in AAA.
by BobbyMac on Feb 2, 2007 9:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hey BobbyMac
That was a wonderful piece of writing Brock20. You have enriched my day.
I looked at the draft and think Upton and Maybin (who I really like) are way too close to the start of the draft. They have to play against real competition a couple of years to see who they will be.
You took Colby Rasmus. I would have taken Adam Jones. Jones gets no credit. He's got decent stats in AAA at a young age, speed, arm, power, great defense so on, so on..50 picks in is too late.
I, too, think Tank is a great pick.
The team owners look like good baseball guys. Isn't it great to be in a league where you have to be good AND lucky to win?
by Yoda on Feb 3, 2007 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You had the best draft...
With the exception of Tankerseley of course. Here, we're not even on the same page, but other than that.
by jdelavalle on Feb 2, 2007 10:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Travis Buck
by Furious George on Feb 3, 2007 2:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The above three comments....
I have to give credit to all the guys in the league. They did a solid job and made my job of drafting a lot harder. Hopefully, this will be a great league. My expectations are quite high after this draft.
Jdel: Can you share some thoughts on Tank? Do yo think he's too valueable as a LOOGY and therefore won't close?
George: Travis Buck? He was on my radar in the last round. Right now, his power is a question mark and he doesn't steal bases. Therefore, he's at best a 3 category guy in the OF. Unless the power develops, I see him as a guy who would regularly be available on the waiver wire. A good player, but not necessarily a good fantasy player and definately not one you want to use a draft pick on to lock up.
by Brock20 on Feb 3, 2007 8:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My Team
Round 1-Homer Bailey...nasty. need I say more?
Round 2-Andy LaRoche. I went back and forth several times on this pick. Gallardo was an option. I was also very high on Reid Brignac, a mancrush if you will. I figured I could wait on Brignac and LaRoche ended up the winner.
Round 3-DEVASTATION...I thought for sure after the pick went to Scott, who already had 2 SS in Tulo and Wood, I was getting Brignac. Probably reached for Dukes, but I really like his improving skills set.
Round 4-Travis Snider, mashed in rookie ball, too much power upside to pass up
Round 5-Phillip Humber, could see some major league action this year. Good K numbers
Round 6-Joba Chamberlain, complete potential draft. I like it when the Cubs draft NCAA pitchers so I decided to snag one.
Round 7-Daric Barton, lacks great power, but his skills fit well in Oakland so he may get an opportunity. Plus my roomie is a Cardinal fan who was upset when he was part of the Mulder trade
Round 8-Freddy Gonzalez, have heard he has the best speed in the minors combined with on base ability.
Any coments/critiques are appreciated
by hatchet on Feb 3, 2007 3:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
your draft
A couple reaches, though. Dukes looks like an "aw, CRAP" pick in the third given who was still left (though your plight is all too familiar to me). I have him in my AL-only league but I'm going to throw him back because I'm no longer confident his talent will overcome his makeup. I'm also not wild about Barton. Olerud is still a popular comp, but if Barton doesn't break out this year then he'll officially be behind Olerud's pace.
by whichthat on Feb 3, 2007 4:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jesse:
You were also stealing guys off my short list when you picked right in front of me, so that is another good sign. Not saying that as a comment on my skill, but that you are slotting guys about where they should go.
Like which, the only one that I kind of scoffed at was Dukes, but then again taking him went against my biases which I outlined above.
That said, I think your best pick was probably Humber. I think that was a solid steal.
by Brock20 on Feb 3, 2007 8:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how I would've picked in your shoes
1:Upton (no doubt)
2:Brignac (either of the Millers would've been good here too)
3:Kershaw (good pick, but i could've gone Tabata too)
4:A Jones (i love your pick, but i gotta go with someone close to the show with this one, as you did with Young, and Jones is great, i also could've gone Loney here...for the same reasons)
5.McGee (though i really like your pick again, I think this is a value spot for this southpaw)
6.Elvis (too much upside, and i have to have one of the kids, so elvi it is since i missed tabata and fmart)
7.Fowler (no doubt a steal here)
8.Sanchez (only because he's closer to the show than Helly)...wow, Danks and Stewart available in round 8, maybe should've taken one of them in round 7....
by daveh33 on Feb 3, 2007 5:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
my team
round 1- Cameron Maybin
round 2- Tim Lincecum
round 3- Jose Tabata
round 4- Chuck Lofgren
round 5- Angel Villalona
round 6- Humberto Sanchez
round 7- Dellin Betances
round 8- Ian Stewart
Like Jesse, this was also my first ever Minor League draft. I obviously didn't choose the most major league players but I went with the guys who I felt had the most talent and chance to succeed, regardless of age. The only player I regret drafting is H. Sanchez even though I'm a huge Yankee fan. Any feedback or comments would be great. Thanks guys
Kenny
by kmoneybags on Feb 3, 2007 4:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I love your 1-3
by daveh33 on Feb 4, 2007 2:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
correction
by kmoneybags on Feb 3, 2007 5:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Draft Review Grades
My philosophy on this minor league draft was to try to acquire as many power arms as I could while still trying to snag a couple of high upside hitters. Although my hitters also carry some considerable risk because they are so young, I feel that most of them have a big enough upside and therefore were worth the risk. When looking at pitchers I wouldn't even bother doing any type of research if they didn't average over a strikeout an inning, and with most of them I would prefer to get a guy that has been able to average a K/inning in AA, but it wasn't a must. My first couple of picks I tried to concentrate on getting guys that I felt could contribute significantly to my major league team this year, and I feel I got that w/ Andrew Miller and Matt Garza. Here's a rundown of my draft picks in order.
Round 1: Matt Garza, SP, MN, Love his stuff, makeup, durability, size, and the fact that he can barely even be considered a rookie. Almost went w/ Pelfrey here, but went w/ Twins history of developing pitchers. Felt he was a pretty safe pick with great upside.
Round 2: Andrew Miller,SP, DET College Player of the Year last year just needs a little more time in the Minors before I feel he will be a stud major leaguer. Love his size, stuff, and doesn't seem to have an injury history. Injury history is important to me because, as a Cubs fan, i have had to deal w/ injuries for far too long, so durability is a big issue. Has a chance to be #5 in the rotation this year, so hopefully he can pull a jered weaver at midseason.
Round 3: Fernando Martinez,OF, NYM I was pretty happy to see him fall this far. Potential 5 tool player that has considerable risk because of his age, but a talent like this was too good to pass up for me. Was ranked in the top 20 of a lot of prospect sites.
Round 4: Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS, Hasn't been a SP for very long I guess, but loved his stuff and upside. Had some criminal charges that were a concern of his makeup and stuff for me, but loved everything else about him.
Round 5: Lars Anderson, 1b, BOS, Felt this was a little bit of a reach for me, because he is really young. But loved his size and his power potential. Also liked the fact that I read he as a 1st or 2nd round talent but signability issues dropped him to the mid rounds. Signability issues weren't a concern, and my system lacked high upside hitters, felt he was too good to pass up.
Round 6: Mark Pawlek, SP, CHC, Best young arm in the system currently. Good size w/ potentail to pack on a few more lbs and gain some more heat on his already good fastball. Read in some places that he was one of the better left handed starting pitcher prospects in the minors, and I know the cubs are excited about him so felt it was a good fit.
Round 7: Jeff Clement, C, SEA, One of the top catching prospects in the minors I thought that was victimized by one bad year in the minors. More of a value pick here because has good potential and if he doesn't pan out, not really losing out on much here, but if he pans out have a good catcher for my team for a couple of years.
Round 8: Wade Davis, P, TB, DIdn't know much about him, but had huge K numbers in A ball, and scouts gave him the best fastball in the DRays system. That's all I needed to see.
Obviously a little more thought went into my picks, but that was a general rundown. Hope to hear everyone's thoughts and comments. Thanks.
by rob7gv on Feb 5, 2007 8:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Personally....
That said, I like the Wade Davis pick in the last round. You got him at a deep discount.
by Brock20 on Feb 5, 2007 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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