Stephen Drew

by wildthang on Feb 2, 2007 6:29 PM EST

Hey everyone, I've got kind of a question, like the title says, about Stephen Drew.

My interest in "prospecting" is rather new compared to many (>1 year) other people who have been following the process of prospect growth for years. This kind of limits for me the knowledge I have about prospects from previous years, as it can be hard to gather information on former prospects, especially without any major subscriptions to sites like BA or the like. The most I can usually find on prospects from years previous are lists like BA's top 100 all time, and maybe if I remember someone on the radio or television or on ESPN talking about them.

This brings me to Stephen Drew. From what I can see, Drew was the #5 prospect heading into last year which would mean he was/is held in very high esteem. My question is, what do people think that his ceiling can/will be this year and in the future? How did people feel about him last year and the year before when he was in the Minors? Obviously looking at his stats from last year in 209 AB's, a .316/.357/.517 line is tremendously encouraging but what could he do over a full season? Or several full seasons? I ask this because I don't hear as much talk about Drew as I do other guys that are ranked high on BA's 06 list like Young, Wood, Verlander, Milledge, Fielder, Zimmerman, Billinglsy and even to an extent Hermida.

Thanks a lot for any possible input!

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Drew

As a Giants fan, I hope I'm wrong about this, but I think Stepen Drew is poised to have a massive breakout season in 2007. Not sure what the numbers will be, but by this time next year he will be one of the stars of the game.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 2, 2007 6:31 PM EST reply actions

Nothing in his way

What scares me about Drew (also being a Giants fan) is the faith the D-Backs have in him. I think that is the most telling insight into how immediate Drew's impact will be. The D-Backs don't have any other viable and proven options at shortstop, and they are certainly looking to define the top of their batting order. He's got a completely unique skillset for a shortstop, and there is no one standing in his way of showing it off in '07. The most appropriate comp I can think to make is Will Clark's rookie season with the added tool of 30 SB-type speed.

by StickRat on Feb 2, 2007 6:51 PM EST reply actions

FWIW

As far as standing, when John Manuel did updated top 100 stuff for BA at midseason, before Drew was called up, he ranked him as the #1 prospect, ahead of Gordon and Delmon and all.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 2, 2007 7:16 PM EST reply actions

Good stuff

I appreciate the input. I am excited to see what this kid can do out in Arizona. I think he could be one of those guys who the sky is the limit for.

by wildthang on Feb 2, 2007 7:24 PM EST reply actions

Drew

I think the only thing that can keep Drew from stardom, as soon as next year, is, well, is last name. Hopefully he doesn't show the same lack of passion/frailty that his brother exudes.

This isn't to say that either Drew isn't hard working or is a 'bad guy.' It's just that its pretty clear both guys play baseball for the bottom line; their professional atheletes, not ballplayers. I don't think that precludes one from stardom, necesarily. But it's not as if Drew was in a rush to play, considering his draft holdout. Also, his performance in AAA last year was pretty unamazing. He didn't seem to care much about excelling until he was promoted to the majors.

Again, I'm not saying he's a bad man, or is doomed to failure. I'm just saying that, like his brother, he seems more concerned with his career than in competing. That MIGHT be a problem, especially if he has to deal with some injuries.

by sanchez101 on Feb 2, 2007 10:09 PM EST reply actions

So sanchez...

Sanchez,

I wonder, are you the guy on this board who was arguing about this time last year that the Dbacks HAD to start Drew back in AA, because he hadn't proven anything in AA yet, and that he had bust written all over him anyhow?

I had an argument with someone who took issue to my comment that Drew was going to start in AAA, and that he would be in the majors around the all star break. To that someone, Drew hadn't shown anything in 2005 to warrant that.

Let me just say, that someone shouldn't give up his day job...

"his performance in AAA last year was pretty unamazing. He didn't seem to care much about excelling until he was promoted to the majors."

We all know that the true measure of success is performance in AAA. In fact, I really believe that Miguel Cabrera is destined to fail miserably any day now because he never even made it to AAA. He's done, stick a fork in him.

"Again, I'm not saying he's a bad man, or is doomed to failure. I'm just saying that, like his brother, he seems more concerned with his career than in competing."

I'm just saying that, like your previous paragraph, this is a really dumb statement.

by levski on Feb 3, 2007 1:33 AM EST up reply actions

Drew

I think - coming into 2006 - there were two mild concerns about Drew (which put him in the #5 range as opposed to #1):

a) Was he going to miss a lot of time like his brother, because he wouldn't play unless he was 100% healthy, and rarely was?

b) How good would his defense be?

My sense is that he's done much to alleviate concern (a), and has essentially dispelled any concerns about (b).

I think if Hanley hadn't been rookie-eligible this season, Drew would have gotten a lot more attention as the star shortstop he is.

by BobbyMac on Feb 2, 2007 10:12 PM EST reply actions

Drew injuries

No doubt he is a talented player, but I don't know that as yet he has proven that he won't miss games due to minor injuries. If you go over to Rotoworld.com and look at the notes on him, you will see that in the short time he was in the majors he missed time or was limited due to a sore hand, flu and groin problems. I think this quote is telling: "I think he's a little puzzled that it's bothering him to this level," manager Bob Melvin said. "Usually stuff like that, even if you're playing, unless you reaggravate it, it usually gets a little better and it just hasn't for him."

Maybe he will turn into Cal Ripken, but given that middle infielders tend to get banged up a bit during the season anyway, it would seem that any extra lack of durability or unwillingness/inability to play with pain may be what determines whether he is a "just" a very good player or a hall of famer.

by firpo22 on Feb 3, 2007 1:11 AM EST up reply actions

More on Drew

Drew, despite being very talented, has been quite underrated as a prospect, at least on message boards like this. He held out for a year, then got hurt in AA at the end of 2005, and even though Baseball America ranked him really high, most self-proclaimed pundits (who put a lot of emphasis on AAA stats over major league performance) knocked Drew down a bit because of it.

Then he got promoted to the majors in 06, and lost his prospect status for 07, which also meant that he isn't getting nearly the same hype as "true" prospects like Alex Gordon or Delmon Young or Brandon Wood. Which is a shame because Drew is just as good of a young player as any of these, and if you account for his upside and his defensive position, is arguably more valuable than any of them.

In fact, even on the Dbacks right now, with all the young hitters on the team, Drew gets even less press coverage than guys like Quentin or Young or even Montero. Which isn't to say that those guys aren't good, because they are (and Young is really excellent). It's that Drew sort of got lost in translation to the majors.

A telling list would be Kevin Goldstein's top 10 Dbacks under the age of 25:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5694

Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies 25 Years Old Or Younger (As Of Opening Day 2007)

Stephen Drew, SS
Chris Young, CF
Justin Upton, CF
Carlos Gonzalez, RF
Carlos Quentin, RF
Conor Jackson, 1B
Miguel Montero, C
Alberto Callaspo, 2B/SS
Dustin Nippert, RHP
Mark Reynolds, 1B/2B/LF

by levski on Feb 3, 2007 1:40 AM EST reply actions

On my sim roster

I have Gordon, Delmon, Wood, Hughes, and McCutchen as my top five prospects, as well as Drew, Hamels, Hermida and a few guys like that for young vets. And as far as I'm concerned, Drew and Gordon are 1 and 1a for my most valuable player, and I'm not really sure which is 1 and which is 1a.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 3, 2007 2:18 AM EST up reply actions

Stephen Drew

I've been a lurker on this site and it's message boards for some time, but this is the thread that's going to pull me into membership.

I've been a Stephen Drew fan for a while. I think he has all the tools to be a big, BIG star. Going into last year all the reports/rankings looked good on him, yet, as many of you said, he was under appreciated.

In my regular baseball discussion group Drew has been almost completely overlooked. When he was BA's #1 prospect at midseason it was dismissed as a fluke and a lapse in judgement by BA. Questions about whether or not this meant Troy Tulowitzki should be the #1 prospect were raised, as a lot of the people I discuss baseball with seem to think Tulo is the better player.

The bottom line is this, keep an eye on Stephen Drew. His brother's perceived reputation preceded him a bit (not that it wasn't fault to some extent), and he'll have to shake the "gun for hire" label, but I expect we'll be talking about a community projection with monster stats for Drew this time next year.

by ElGuapito on Feb 3, 2007 8:11 AM EST reply actions

he ranks #1

over everyone on my lists. eligible prospect or not. he has 30 hr potential .300 average and 20 steal potential with good defense all coming from the SS position.

he's better then Hanley by alot imo. he'll flash it soon enough. he did rank ahead of Gordon and Young on Manuels list mid season last year before his call up.

by High Heater on Feb 3, 2007 8:23 AM EST reply actions

vs. Tulo?

Does he really rank that much higher than Tulowitzski? Especially given Colorado advantage? Tulo a bit younger, too. Of course, he has not proven at all that he can hit in the majors, I realize that...But given his size, isn't Tulo a decent bet for 30 to 40 HRs out of the SS position eventually?

by Grego on Feb 3, 2007 11:40 AM EST reply actions

eh

even tho hes bigger he doesnt equate for more power then Drew.

Drew has more of a compact natural swing for power then Tulo. the park is an advantage but even aside from that i doubt he provides more power then Drew through their careers.

He doesnt have is Drew's batting eye imo. he isnt a .300+ hitter which Drew projects as.

There was talk of them moving Tulo from SS due to not being as fluid and range as they would like from him at that spot.

i havn't read any negatives in scouting reports stating Drew has any negative defense or range from the position.

by High Heater on Feb 3, 2007 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

Defense?!

Well, I must be reading completely different sources than you, because I've never heard any rumblings about Tulowitzki moving. He's been compared to Bobby Crosby at every stop, and that includes the polished defense with above-average range.

About Drew, last year BA wrote, "He's often lazy in the field", and "He doesn't always show the first-step quickness to stay at shortstop." (both from their Prospect Handbook).

As I noted earlier, I believe Drew has pretty much dispelled the concerns over his D, though.

by BobbyMac on Feb 3, 2007 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

Park Factors

I think we all need a refresher course in park factors. Coors Field is a launching pad, this is true. The Ballpark formerly known as BOB was the most extreme hitter friendly environment last year. In fact, since Colorado adopted the humidor, Coors Field has played at a almost neutral level with only a slight lean to hitters.

I just wanted to point that out so all the anti-Drew loons could start the "only reason he hits like that is the homefield advantage."

I agree with most that Drew has done a lot to disspell the "lack of defense" reputation he had received. The one point I would still make is that with Brandon Webb as your ace you might want a SS that is better than league average. They have more groundball oriented pitching coming up the ladder too. If he has the tools to translate to another position, I don't understand why you wouldn't want to upgrade another position offensively while improving your SS defensively.

Ok, the end.

*This message brought to you by The Church of Cole Hamels and Latter Day Lefties*

by QuixoticQuasiQuandary on Feb 3, 2007 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

Park Factors

Actually, I believe Coors was the second most hitter-friendly park in the league last year, inflating runs at a +10% rate or so.

Coors is not the launching pad it used to be, but it is still extremely beneficial to hitters. especially in the "average" department

by Jgaztambide on Feb 3, 2007 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

Jeff Kent

My money is on Drew having career offensive numbers similar to Jeff Kent, while playing a tougher defensive position. He's a MUCH better offensive prospect than Tulo. I personally don't think Tulo will exer exceed 20 HR in a season, never mind hit 30-40. Tulo may have the higher batting average, but Drew is much more complete offensively.

by Brickhaus on Feb 3, 2007 11:54 AM EST reply actions