Community Projection for Chad Billingsley
by John Sickels on Feb 18, 2007 9:02 PM EST
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Community Projection Thread for Chad Billingsley:
Project:
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Games Started
Innings pitched
Runs
Earned Runs
ERA
Wins
Losses
Strikeouts
Walks
Hits
Homers Allowed
Complete Games
Shutouts
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I am going to assume....
Billingsley ends up picking up starts between the frequent injuries of Wolf, Penny, Schmidt and (god forbid) Kuo. In the meantime, he pitches long relief (along with Hendrickson).
Tomko and Beimel both stay as one-inning men, with Broxton and Saito taking the 8th and 9th. Brazoban and Houlton will start the year in Vegas, Meloan and Elbert in Jacksonville.
Anyway:
Games 39
Games Started 13
Innings pitched 135.1
Runs 63
Earned Runs 56
ERA 3.72
Wins 6
Losses 5
Strikeouts 124
Walks 78
Hits 102
Homers Allowed 11
Complete Games 1
Shutouts 0
i agree
Games 40
Games Started 14
Innings pitched 150
Runs 53
Earned Runs 56
ERA 3.18 (skewed in his favor b/c of relief)
Wins 7
Losses 5
Strikeouts 140
Walks 70
Hits 130
Homers Allowed 12
Complete Games 1
Shutouts 1
no subject
Games Started 27
Innings pitched 178.2
Runs 83
Earned Runs 76
ERA 3.82
Wins 13
Losses 12
Strikeouts 155
Walks 85
Hits 132
Homers Allowed 21
Complete Games 0
Shutouts 0
Blue blood
Games 32
Games Started 28
Innings pitched 181
Runs 77
Earned Runs 71
ERA 3.53
Wins 12
Losses 9
Strikeouts 137
Walks 58
Hits 182
Homers Allowed 18
Complete Games 1
Shutouts 0
good stuff, still learning...
Games 28
Games Started 28
Innings pitched 172
Runs 79
Earned Runs 75
ERA 3.92
Wins 13
Losses 8
Strikeouts 135
Walks 80
Hits 145
Homers Allowed 15
Complete Games 4
Shutouts 1
by TigerFanInCleveland on Feb 18, 2007 10:19 PM EST reply actions
Projection
Games Started 32
Innings pitched 195
Runs 97
Earned Runs 91
ERA 4.29
Wins 12
Losses 10
Strikeouts 150
Walks 92
Hits 195
Homers Allowed 18
Complete Games 1
Shutouts
by gordonroyals2008 on Feb 18, 2007 11:10 PM EST reply actions
Projection
Games 43
Games Started 25
Innings pitched 182
Runs 78
Earned Runs 71
ERA 3.51
Wins 14
Losses 6
Strikeouts 171
Walks 81
Hits 152
Homers Allowed 24
Complete Games 2
Shutouts 2
Billingsley
Games Started 27
Innings pitched 176
Runs 77
Earned Runs 71
ERA 3.63
Wins 13
Losses 9
Strikeouts 159
Walks 69
Hits 157
Homers Allowed 16
Complete Games 1
Shutouts 1
Billingsley
GS - 25
IP - 155
R - 73
ER - 67
ERA - 3.89
W - 8
L - 8
K - 132
BB - 68
H - 135
HR - 14
CG - 0
SO - 0
Billingsley
GS -- 16
IP -- 119.0
R -- 62
ER -- 56
ERA -- 4,24
Wins -- 7
Losses -- 7
Strikeouts --78
Walks -- 68
Hits -- 115
HR -- 11
CG -- 0
SHO -- 0
by C @ Minor League Ball on Feb 19, 2007 3:27 PM EST reply actions
Billingsley projection
GS - 25
IP - 162
R - 81
ER - 74
ERA - 4.11
W - 11
L - 8
K - 135
BB - 71
H - 168
HR - 17
CG - 0
SO - 0
I personally think Bill...
G: 29
GS: 26
IP: 158
R: 71
ER: 68
ERA: 3.87
W: 13
L: 10
K: 132
BB: 77
H: 148
HR: 17
CG: 0
SO: 0
Big step up
GS: 28
IP: 171
R: 83
ER: 78
ERA: 4.17
W: 12
L: 12
K: 144
BB: 80
H: 170
HR: 21
CG: 0
SO: 0
OHHH-VER-RAAAATED!!!!!!
Games Started 16
Innings pitched 121
Runs 70
Earned Runs 64
ERA 4.75
Wins 5
Losses 10
Strikeouts 82
Walks 61
Hits 119
Homers Allowed 15
Complete Games 0
Shutouts 0
He's a mediocre pitcher. He could be good with a few more innings in AAA...but I don't think that the Dodgers are smart enough to give them to him.
by uga007 on Feb 19, 2007 7:08 PM EST reply actions
seriously....
I would love an explanation as to WHY Billingsley is not just "overrated," but an outright unusable starter -- sporting an ERA near 5.00 while pitching in Dodger Stadium. Or maybe you can just chant "overrated!" at me. Whichever works best for you.
by bleedjaxblue on Feb 19, 2007 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
hm
uga didn't say he won't be good....
I was disappointed by Billz's first year in the bigs, too, despite the quite good ERA. I am comforted by the fact that scouts AREN'T concerned about it. I also don't think it's possible to emphasize enough that mediocre stats as a 21-year-old in the majors are not a sign of failure. I would doubt the data shows much (if any) correlation between how good two pitchers are at age 21 (if both in the majors and at least holding their own) versus success at career's end.
However, I totally respect the opinion that he won't be much better this next year. What I object to are the two unsubstantiated slams of Billz's ability, the insult to the Dodgers organization, and the ERA that is a full run higher than any he's posted at any level, including in the hitter's haven that is Las Vegas. If Billz had posted this ERA last year, it would have been the second highest ERA on the team of any pitcher who threw even HALF as many innings as uga projects (Jae Seo is the only pitcher worse). To me, that seems like a questionable claim, and not one that takes into the circumstances of Billz's situation (pitching in Dodger Stadium, versus the NL West, etc.).
I also object to the statement, "He could be good with a few more innings in AAA...but I don't think that the Dodgers are smart enough to give them to him," because, again, it makes me doubt whether uga knows what he's talking about. Is he aware that Triple-A for the Dodgers is Las Vegas? This is a place where pitchers pick up HORRIBLE habits. Generally, the Dodgers try to keep their pitching prospects there as little time as possible. So long as Billingsley can handle it (which I think he showed he could, at least to some degree), I think pitching in Dodger Stadium is probably the better place to learn than the PCL. But maybe the Dodgers just "aren't smart." Anyway, if uga were to substantiate his claims, I wouldn't object to it.
by bleedjaxblue on Feb 20, 2007 3:44 AM EST up reply actions
Why is he overrated...
Couldn't have said it better myself.
Billingsley 2006 ML FIP: 4.80
2006 xFIP: 5.60
If any of you think Billingsley deserved a 3.80 ERA with 59 Ks, 58 BBs in 90 IP, then you really have no clue.
I do understand that Las Vegas is a bitch for pitchers...but the guy really is not ready for the majors from what I saw last year (which was a clone of Brian Bannister).
And yes, the Dodgers are not smart...the only time Juan Pierre and 55MM dollars should go in the same sentence is: "Any team that would pay Juan Pierre 55MM dollars (especially a team that has no power hitters) is run by incompetent people." (Logan White obviously knows what he is doing...but he doesn't run the major league team)
by uga007 on Feb 21, 2007 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
Also, his PERA was...
by uga007 on Feb 21, 2007 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
I don't object to you saying....
and if that's all you're saying, fine.
i think everyone agrees that billingsley's peripherals didn't match his production and, if you don't feel he's ready to make a step forward in the former category, he's unlikely to repeat in the latter.
but the terms "overrated" and calling him "a medicore pitcher" suggest you feel he will NEVER be good. and that's what i'm questioning.
also, i think ned colletti's a damn fool, myself, but overpaying juan pierre has little to do with whether they are rushing billingsley. better evidence of why they are rushing billingsley would be to say specifically why you think billz will be hurt by being in the majors or why billz would benefit from going back to the minor. if you're going to call the dodgers "stupid" by analogy, it should at least revolve around the way they've handled other prospects. during the colletti era, i don't think any of them have been rushed; in fact, he seems more intent on blocking most of them with veteran scrubs like mueller, lofton, etc.
anyway, like i said, i think your projection of billz's ERA is a little high, considering his past history, but i'm willing to accept it. what i think needs true justification is your claims of him being a mediocre pitcher, period.
by bleedjaxblue on Feb 21, 2007 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Hard call
My guess
G: 35
GS: 15
ERA: 4.01
IP: 123.1
K: 88
BB: 42
HR: 10
It really could go a lot of different ways though, i have doubts he could get the BB down that fast (then again, Kuo somehow did in half a season)
Doing a projection on Kuo would be interesting too, his fate seems explicitedly tied to Billingsly's now (and really the Dodger's future may be tied to them both)
I've Got Bills No Honest Man Can Pay
A rise in ERA masks some real improvement in Billingsley's peripherals.
Games 32
Games Started 26
Innings pitched 167.0
Runs 86
Earned Runs 80
ERA 4.31
Wins 12
Losses 8
Strikeouts 138
Walks 96
Hits 164
Homers Allowed 16
Complete Games 0
Shutouts 0
by Joy in Melville on Feb 20, 2007 1:27 PM EST reply actions
He's going to take a huge step forward
Games Started 27
Innings pitched 185.2
Runs 75
Earned Runs 63
ERA 3.05
Wins 12
Losses 7
Strikeouts 174
Walks 65
Hits 172
Homers Allowed 16
Complete Games 2
Shutouts 0
holding a 21 yos
30 starts
30 games
180 innings
76 ERs
82 Rs
3.80 ERA
13-6 W-L
160 Ks
70 BBs
160 Hs
8 HRs
1 CG
1 SHO
billz
I hate to keep coming to Billingsley's defense
I would agree -- the control was frightening.
I would also agree that his stuff was a cut or two below that of Cain/Felix/Verlander/Liriano. (I watched Matt Garza on two or three occasions, and I would not say I was particularly impressed, but I know you're a Twins fan, so I'm not going to start that argument.)
What I disagree with is how the off-season has distorted your memory (or you watched the strangest start of Billingsley's all season).
91? I would say he dropped that low. I don't think his fastball ever got slower than that. He was fairly consistently 93 though, and probably hit 95 only a little less infrequently than 91. I am with you that he was advertised as throwing harder in the minors (in my experience, all pitching prospects are), but I think you're way off-base saying he threw slower than average for a right-handed starter. That's just untrue.
And slurvy breaking ball? That's the one I really can't figure out. No doubt I'd take Cain's curve before Billingsley's right now, but I don't think Billingsley's curve was subpar in the slightest; it certainly never got hit. Beyond that, it's a pretty straight 12-6 drop, so the word "slurvy" doesn't really apply. He did throw a slider and a cutter, in hopes of inducing more contact and lowering pitch counts, but I'm assuming you're referring to the curveball. I'm with you that it's not a Liriano-slider in terms of being a major-league-dominant outpitch. But it wasn't exactly hit decently (when he could get it near the strike zone) either.
To me, the main thing for Billingsley really is to have control of his pitches. Last year, he was constantly behind in the count, which meant he essentially HAD to throw fastballs all the time (and even the fastball wasn't that well controlled). If he can get strikes without having to aim the ball, his stuff will look a lot better (though how much better is what remains to be seen).
by bleedjaxblue on Feb 20, 2007 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
watch
saw it
Maybe he was just a little worn down at the end of the season, but his stuff just didn't scream ace to me. I'm willing to assume it was just a blip on the radar and now he'll go back to having great stuff, but I'm still a little more cautious now than I was before he debuted.
dead arm
its a pay site, but theres a blurb at the top. im not trying to make excuses for him, but there was a 3-5 game stretch where he was money until he pulled a side muscle and had to sit out 3 weeks or so. that seemed to slow down his groove.
espically compared to...
I have to agree that the most likely year Billingsly will have this year is a improvement in periphals that will reflect his minor league abilities, but a increase in ERA ...as the ERA last year was simply not right given the periphals (espically the walks...he is a ground baller though which should help him a little, though not in the H/9 department)
Going foward, the biggest comparason for Billingsly i see is Roy Halladay, but he must first prove he can get the walks down.
Nice Comparison
Just a guess
Games Started 18
Innings pitched 162
Runs 89
Earned Runs 82
ERA 4.56
Wins 11
Losses 8
Strikeouts 139
Walks 61
Hits 159
Homers Allowed 17
Complete Games 2
Shutouts 0
Billingsley Projection
Games 31
Games Started 28
Innings pitched 175.0
Runs 88
Earned Runs 80
ERA 4.11
Wins 12
Losses 10
Strikeouts 157
Walks 78
Hits 165
Homers Allowed 22
Complete Games 0
Shutouts 0
WHIP 1.39
BB/9 4.01
SO/9 8.07
H/9 8.49
Billingsly at 21 reminds me
Games 29
Games Started 21
Innings pitched 162
Runs 92
Earned Runs 85
ERA 4.72
Wins 11
Losses 8
Strikeouts 129
Walks 81
Hits 169
Homers Allowed 19
Complete Games 0
Shutouts 0
by Johnny Ruin on Feb 22, 2007 1:16 PM EST reply actions
comparison
4.08era 470.2IP 8.54 H/9IP .77 hr/9ip 3.87 w/9ip 8.61 k/ip 1.38WHIP
billingsleys minor league totals
3.18era 405IP 7.16 H/9ip .58 hr/9ip 3.73 w/9ip 10.22 k/9ip 1.21WHIP
except for the walk rates being close, nothing about billingsley can be compared to meche. I think people are just looking into his mlb peripherals as a 21 yr old too much.
I agree with npurcell...
But, on another point, Gil Meche's stuff in the majors wasn't as good as advertised? I remember him throwing gas and having nasty stuff before the plethora of surgical procedures. All things considered, I think Gil Meche would have been an all-star if his arm had stayed healthy. (I'm sure he'll settle for the $55 million contract, though.)
by bleedjaxblue on Feb 22, 2007 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Meche minor league totals
3.46 era, 349 ip, 8.34 h/9, .62 hr/9, 3.69 bb/9, 9.01k/9, 1.37 WHIP
Billingsley in AA & AAA: 3.76 ERA
Meche in AA & AAA: (at Billingsley's current age): 3.20 ERA
by Johnny Ruin on Feb 22, 2007 6:34 PM EST reply actions
Are you projecting the following...
"His 2000 season was cut short due to what was thought at the time to be a dead arm. In February of 2001 he underwent arthroscopic surgery to partially repair a frayed rotator cuff, and at the time he was expected to only be on the disabled list for six months. [2] Unfortunately things were more severe, and he had to undergo surgery again on October 3, 2001 on his right AC joint.[3] He was forced to miss the entire 2001 and 2002 MLB seasons."
Given that we never saw a healthy Gil Meche past age 21, what on earth does "what Gil Meche has become" have to do with Chad Billingsley? If you think they'll both be injured, fine. If you think Billingsley will fulfill the potential Meche was never healthy enough to get to fulfill, fine. But comparing Meche's current stats is like saying someone's hitting like a young Tony Conigliaro and projecting him to get hit in the face.
by bleedjaxblue on Feb 22, 2007 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
Are you projecting the following...
But this is a community projection, until I put up my projection only 1/30 projectiosn had him with a higher projected ERA than his Pecota Projection for instance.
I also saw him pitch last year, I may be giving to much emphasis to that and not enough to his prior track record but I do not see a pitcher (Dodger Stadium or not) who is ready to put up a sub 4.00 ERA in the majors just yet.
My real comparision with Meche was not so much Meche's misfortune, but Meche, like Billinglsey, early on put up a very good era that was skewed by a very low BABIP, Meche's subsequent ERAs climbed even though his peripherals improved because his BABIP regressd towards the league norm. I expect the same to happen with Billinglsey injury or not.
He also simply does not throw as well as I had been lead to expect and not as well as other younger pitchers who have managed to match some of the projections up above.
by Johnny Ruin on Feb 23, 2007 10:03 AM EST reply actions
Meche's subsequent ERAs climbed....
by bleedjaxblue on Feb 23, 2007 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
yeah
obviously, I knew that would be mentioned....
Also, realistically, it was more like 2 MPH off. No one said Billingsley sat at 96-97 on his fastball, or that he topped out at 99.
by bleedjaxblue on Feb 23, 2007 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
well
=============
through the same age as Billingsly now:
3.46 era, 349 ip, 8.34 h/9, .62 hr/9, 3.69 bb/9, 9.01k/9, 1.37 WHIP
Billingsley in AA & AAA: 3.76 ERA
Meche in AA & AAA: (at Billingsley's current age): 3.20 ERA
=============
I don't want to make it seem like I'm arguing just to argue. I just want to make it clear that I think it's foolish to expect Billingsley to be an above-average starter this year. He may very well turn out to be one this year, and he very likely will be one down the road. But he's got a significant way to go as a pitcher, and Gil Meche is just one of the avenues he could go down.
Billingsley is without question still one of the best pitching prospects to debut in the last couple years, but I'd say his debut raised more questions (especially about his stuff) than it answered. And it certainly shouldn't inspire the kind of projections I'm seeing in this thread.
fair enough
I was referring to minor league numbers on the whole for Billingsley, not just the final two years, which is why Billingsley was in the top 20 and top 10 in his final two years listed on BA's top 100, while Gil Meche was in the 80s and 70s.
Still, my only really problem with the comp isn't with Billingsley; it's with Meche. Why are people acting like Meche was a bad prospect? That guy was dope before he hurt himself at such a young age. I would LOVE for a pitching prospect to be compared to a young Gil Meche, just as I'd be happy to have a pitching prospect be compared to a young Herb Score. (In fairness to Billingsley though, as evidenced by those BA ratings at least, the comps on Billz are much better than a young Meche.)
----------------------------
Anyway, I sound like I'm still arguing, and I don't want to do that, since -- like I said -- I agree with you. If you check out my projections, though, I DIDN'T make him an above-average starter. I made him a reliever with an ERA near 4.00, which in Dodger Stadium facing NL West competition, isn't really that special, especially given how much easier it is to pitch in relief. (Like I said at another point in this thread, Billz would have had the second highest ERA on the team for anyone with 60 innings or more if he put up the 4.75 ERA uga projected.) I think he'll improve peripherals this year, but that's all.
by bleedjaxblue on Feb 23, 2007 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
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