Guerra and velocity gain
by rhd on Feb 18, 2007 9:20 PM EST
19 comments
Since there was so much controversy over whether Guerra, and 'projectable' pitchers in general, gain velocity as they mature, I decided to submit a question Re: this to 'Ask BA' this past week. To my pleasant surprise, Jim Callis answered it right away. Below is part of my question (he actually changed part of it, for some reason):
What roughly is the percentage chance that (Guerra) in particular, and projectable pitchers in general, will experience at least a modest gain in velocity (1-2 mph)? How much chance of a significant gain? Is this more of a function of mechanics than anything else? Do any empirical studies of this issue exist?
Callis' answer:
I don't know of any empirical studies that exist, but if they do and someone has access to them, I'd love to see the results. Such a study would take some time, but it would be fairly easy for a club to create a database by taking its scouting reports along with height and age data to see how pitchers developed over a number of years.
While I can't give you exact percentages, I can speak in more general terms. Given his very young age and very lanky frame, I'd expect Guerra to be throwing consistently in the low 90s, maybe harder, five years down the road. It's a function of many things: age, build, present velocity, mechanics, arm speed, what kind of throwing program he's on, etc
So, he thinks Guerra will gain signficant velocity based on his general age and physical characteristics. That's more or less in line w what my thinking was before the issue came up. I think that pretty much justifies us putting him where we did on the Community list. Now, let's see if BA puts him in their Top 100.
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Not so sure
Some projectable pitchers add velocity, some don't, and as Callis noted, there's really no way at all to tell who will do what.
Right now Guerra's a relatively soft-tossing righty who doesn't miss bats. Even if Guerra adds velocity, there's no guarantee that his FB will be a swing and miss pitch.
Everyone's free to rank any player wherever they want, but guys like Guerra aren't at all exciting to me until they actually arrive.
by jhelfgott on Feb 18, 2007 9:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Response
I've got a working theory in my head (mind you, one that I have subjected to absolutely no actual study) that many projectable pitchers, rather than adding velocity to their heater as they fill out, instead develop the ability to consistently maintain their velocity deeper into games and deeper into a professional season without risking injury from overthrowing.
Using this sort of train of thought, one could take the example of, say, Chris Volstad pre-2005 draft and imagine two successful futures for him:
- Volstad fills out, adds 2-4 MPH to his low 90s fastball, develops his secondary pitches and becomes an ace ML pitcher.
- Volstad fills out, neither adds nor subtracts from his low 90s fastball, develops his secondary pitches, and turns into a dependable 200+ IP/year pitcher with decent stats.
by mrkupe on Feb 18, 2007 10:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Ideal Weight/Height Theory
In general, I believe that velocity can be increased if a pitcher adds weight. At risk of screwing something up, I decided not to go into the physics of it all. But, I think as a pitcher becomes more massive, assuming the acceleration of his arm remains relatively constant, his pitches will travel with more velocity.
Of course, a pitcher cannot just get indefinitely more massive. At some point, he will become so massive that he is unable to accelerate his arm like he did before, thus losing velocity. In addition, being more massive causes numerous other problems. Bigger pitchers tend to have less stamina and are also more injury prone.
The conclusion that I have come to is that all pitchers have an ideal weight for their height. I believe the ideal weight for a 6'0 pitcher to be approximately 200 pounds. And, I estimate that for every inch he is taller than that, his ideal weight increases by about 4 pounds. Thus, the way that I judge if a pitcher is projectable is by how much mass they could conceivably add. So, I view someone like Brandon Erbe (who is 6'4 180lbs. according to BA) as very projectable. By my theory, Erbe's ideal weight is 216lbs. which suggests he can add 36 pounds of mass without losing arm acceleration or stamina. Someone like Phil Humber (who is 6'4 210lbs. according to BA), however is not very projectable (only 6lbs. below his ideal weight). For Guerra, who is 6'5 200lbs. he is somewhat projectable (his ideal weight is 220lbs.).
Occasionally, a prospect will come along that can go the other way. I can't think of any off the top of my head but occasionally there are guys who are too heavy for their frame and they could benefit by losing weight. Bobby Jenks comes to mind.
One more thing, I do agree with mrkupe when he says that sometimes "filling out" only makes velocity more consistent. I would consider Homer Bailey (6'3 190 according to BA) and Brandon Erbe as two examples of guys like this. They both can add considerable weight to their frames, but they throw so hard that they likely wont add more velocity. Instead, I would just expect it to be more consistent and created with less effort.
Just one theory I have come up with...
by Dfarth on Feb 18, 2007 10:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oh Yeah
by Dfarth on Feb 18, 2007 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This IS a kid
How about you? Did you reach your apex of physical strength around the time you got your drivers license? This kid IS going to throw faster and he doesn't have far to go get to more than acceptable levels.
by slurve on Feb 18, 2007 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i throw bullets
by mroak89 on Feb 19, 2007 1:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
by jhelfgott on Feb 19, 2007 5:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
pretty sure
by Metty5 on Feb 19, 2007 7:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
admittedly Wager
by slurve on Feb 19, 2007 7:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Elite pitching prospects
A huge part of Guerra's ERA can be attributed to luck in the HR/F department. He's not going to give up .33HR/9 with a 1.27 G/F again.
As for his age: what he did in low-A was impressive, there's no doubting it. However, his low-A stats don't matter a lick if he doesn't have major league stuff. I don't care if he's 14. Even with a modest step forward in his velocity, he doesn't profile as better than a #4 starter, and won't unless all of his offerings improve substantially.
What do you look for in an elite pitching prospect? Does Guerra have it?
I look for:
-3 pitches that grade out as at least solid-average (2 plus pitches for a relief prospect). Guerra currently has 1.
-At least one plus offering that projects as a major league out pitch. Guerra's change doesn't qualify.
-High strikeout totals. A major league arm should have no problem fooling minor league hitters. Guerra K'd 7/9 in low-A last year. Regardless of stuff, that's hardly inspiring.
-Ideally, solid GB ratios in the minors. An average G/F guy in low-A is likely to see that G/F decrease as he moves up and faces stronger hitters better able to elevate pitches. Guerra's G/F last year was 1.27, making him pretty much exactly neutral. Strong groundball tendencies? Nope.
-In the absence of dominant stuff, impeccable control. Guerra walked 4/9 last year in low-a. Performance in the control department's not there yet.
Only the most cursory evaluation of this kid's age and ERA nets you with the opinion that he's currently an elite talent.
Guerra's a projectable kid who had an unsustainable low ERA in a pitchers' league he was impressively young for. As far as his chance at a future in the major leagues goes, it's all projection.
That's a description of a guy you want to have in your organization, but it's not an elite prospect.
by jhelfgott on Feb 20, 2007 6:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Guerra
- I never called him an elite prospect.
- Most of what you say is true. At the same time, many are throwing their arms up in the air due soley to his velocity at this point. All I'm saying is that I have no doubt that area will take care of itself due his age and where its at right now.
by slurve on Feb 20, 2007 7:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
K
- Fine, then we agree.
- I don't know how you can have no doubt. The list of projectable teenagers who never gain velocity is really, really long.
by jhelfgott on Feb 21, 2007 7:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
while the list
by slurve on Feb 21, 2007 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
From Mets reports
by Deech on Feb 18, 2007 11:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Velocity
by Metty5 on Feb 18, 2007 11:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Guerra and the top 100
by Brett Perryman on Feb 18, 2007 11:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Anyone remember....
All I heard when he first came out was "projectable" and "great command."
I like projectability to a point, but it's too much of a guessing game. I really would like to do something on this one, it's a very interesting topic.
by SenorGato88 on Feb 19, 2007 1:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
here he is
by finman on Feb 19, 2007 8:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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