First off, a probability distribution for what type of player he will become (anything I don't list I believe has a <2% chance of occuring; however, I adjust what I AM listing to equal 100%, so other possible outcomes -- such as "career minor leaguer" -- are treated like 0% chances, even though they are not):

Career platoon/never gets starting role: 4%
Bad starter: 12%
Decent starter, short career: 3%
Decent starter, long career: 17%
Good starter, short career: 8%
Good starter, long career: 33%
Star: 18%
Superstar: 5%

The tough thing about projecting LaRoche is, it's still not entirely clear what type of hitter he is. Early in his career, he had prodigious power but looked like a strikeout hazard who would never hit for average. At this point, he seems to have sacrificed some of that power to become an all-around great hitter, though I believe there's a good chance he gets a lot of that power back. (Just for reference, check out how much power his brother added at a late age; also note that, just as LaRoche was hitting full-stride this year in terms of power, he suffered the labrum injury.)

Anyway, I guess I'll provide two projections: his good starter, long career projection -- as it is the most likely, as I see it -- and his superstar projection -- just since I think it's worthwhile to see what it would look like if everything went right.

I'll list a (quick, super-estimated) Crystal Ball with ABs, BA and HRs for each year of his career (I won't venture to predict RBI), starting with the "good career":

2007 - 140 ABs, .268, 6 HRs
2008 - 420 ABs, .288, 17 HRs
2009 - 540 ABs, .292, 24 HRs
2010 - 530 ABs, .318, 28 HRs
2011 - 580 ABs, .303, 27 HRs
2012 - 550 ABs, .291, 33 HRs
2013 - 530 ABs, .293, 26 HRs
2014 - 570 ABs, .299, 36 HRs
2015 - 510 ABs, .311, 26 HRs
2016 - 550 ABs, .283, 22 HRs
2017 - 510 ABs, .286, 19 HRs
2018 - 400 ABs, .269, 21 HRs
2019 - 200 ABs, .251, 14 HRs
TOTALS: 299 career homers (a very unlikely prediction, since I'm willing to bet he'd stick around for #300)

For the superstar projection (involves him maximizing his power potential):

2007 - 160, .273, 7 HRs
2008 - 480, .296, 21 HRs
2009 - 580, .310, 31 HRs
2010 - 530, .301, 34 HRs
2011 - 560, .330, 42 HRs
2012 - 550, .318, 37 HRs
2013 - 610, .302, 40 HRs
2014 - 570, .312, 34 HRs
2015 - 560, .293, 46 HRs
2016 - 540, .322, 37 HRs
2017 - 550, .290, 32 HRs
2018 - 580, .304, 27 HRs
2019 - 490, .285, 22 HRs
2020 - 470, .277, 19 HRs
2021 - 290, .270, 14 HRs
2022 - 40, .279, 2 HRs
TOTALS: 445 HRs

So, for his prime, I'd say, the modal choice would be .290 with 30 HRs, the upper-end choice would be .320 with 42 HRs.

What are your thoughts on LaRoche?

For me, I view Orr as a premier amateur. He was commonly viewed as the best Canadian player available in the draft, and scouts agree he was premier power potential (though they obviously didn't all agree on how likely he was to reach that potential).

However, the person who I trust more than most other scouts is Logan White, who seems quite taken with Orr. If White feels that way about him, it gives me the impression he feels Orr has a pretty decent shot of fulfilling his potential, and I don't make a habit out of taking the field versus Logan White.

On the idea that you have to be a "premier" amateur to make this list without any experience -- Preston Mattingly WAS NOT considered a premier amateur by most of the scouting community (if I'm not mistaken, he didn't make BA's high school top 100). However, he has some strong tools, and the fact that White would use a supplemental first round pick on him was enough to elevate his "prospect status" from essentially nonexistent to fairly high.

Obviously, Mattingly played a handful of innings in the GCL, but I don't see how those innings are what make him more or less relevant to a top 10 discussion. In general, GCL stats aren't super meaningful, and whatever meaning you can hope to get is that a player tore the league in two or else was totally overwhelmed. Mattingly was neither, so it doesn't seem like his playing time makes him a more worthwhile discussion point than Orr -- unless your claim is that Orr is too likely to entirely bust, and he has to prove he can at least VAGUELY handle GCL pitching before we talk about him.

However, if THIS were your belief, it would go against what you say in your post -- that Orr may take a little while to adjust to better competition in the US. To me, I don't see how it's relevant AT ALL in terms of prospect status if he puts up good numbers next year or if it takes him a year to adjust, so long as you believe he will make the adjustment (which I do). However, your claim that it WILL take him time seems to defeat your own argument that we would know anything from the handful of innings he's played already.

Obviously, on someone like Orr, it's totally a judgment call -- both on how much you like security of prospects and how good you believe he really is, given how little there is to base this judgment on. To me, I'd put him in a top 10. If you wouldn't, fine. I certainly don't think it's "not worth discussing" either because we haven't seen him play or because BA doesn't rank him that highly.