James Loney Crystal Ball

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2007 4:23 PM EST in News

Question for Discussion: Does Loney develop his power further, or concentrate on batting average, or develop both into a superstardom package?

Disclaimer: The Crystal Ball is an "educated opinion"...not to be taken TOO seriously and mostly for fun. I do put quite a bit of work into them, looking at similar players and trying to figure out how the guy in question might develop. Is there a fancy computer program? No. Do I just slop numbers on the page? No. It is less than a projection/prediction but more than just guesswork.

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Looks like...

Mark Grace with more power to me. That wouldn't be bad at all.

by Gudy2Shoes on Feb 14, 2007 4:30 PM EST reply actions

some injuries, some great years

2014 is an MVP year. I don't think he would be the MVP, but that batting average would get a lot of hype. Why does his average fall off a cliff after that? I think that he might be able to hit 30+ home runs some year.

by benaiah on Feb 14, 2007 5:07 PM EST reply actions

My opinion

That would be a very solid career. I think he has more power in him though, maybe a few 30 hr years, and if he has those BAs, he'd have more 100 rbi years.

by royalsfan7 on Feb 14, 2007 5:21 PM EST reply actions

Loney

I think that Loney, if he establishes himself as a hitter for average and moderate power, will be taking more walks than the Crystal Ball shows. His approach is excellent and he has good pitch recognition skills. I think people are taking his walk rate in AAA to seriously, I wouldn't take many walks either if I were hitting .380. In AA he took 59 walks in 504 AB's. I could see him taking walks in 8-10% of his PA in his early career and that it graduates to the 10-12% range when he hits his prime years.

I agree with Benaiah, Loney has considerable power potential. Seeing him in the majors last year, two things were made clear, Loney has superb plate-coverage and he always hits the ball hard. He worked a 1-2 count against Jason Schmidt last year full, saw about 6-7 pitches total, and pulled a 94mph fastball on the outside corner nearly into McCovey cove. It was a monster blast - not something you see from the Doug Mientkiewicz's of the world.

Loney doesn't really lack power, he gets plenty of extrabase hits - he lacks homeruns. I think the paucity of HR's in his track record is a reflection of his approach (he just doesn't look for homeruns pitches, he's looks for pitches he can drive into the gaps and up the middle) rather than a lack of HR-power. If he can look for HR pitches more often, without sacrificing his contact rate or batting average he'll be an allstar.

by sanchez101 on Feb 14, 2007 5:29 PM EST reply actions

You know who this comps close to?

Steve Garvey...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/garvest01.shtml

spooky...

If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.

by kings33 on Feb 14, 2007 6:00 PM EST reply actions

IMO

I just can't see him being that healthy for that long of stretches. Further, I'm not even sure he'll be a starter for that long. Seems really optimistic to me.

by Brickhaus on Feb 14, 2007 8:40 PM EST reply actions

Why?

Both of Loney's injuries were as a result of getting hit by balls, once by a pitch and once on the basepaths. How does that make him injury-prone?

by sanchez101 on Feb 14, 2007 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

Because

it doesn't matter WHY you get injured if you're getting injured by things that don't injure most people. He's brittle, period. Most people don't get major injuries when they're hit by a ball, and he did. It makes me think that in the future, something else will happen that wouldn't injure most people that injures him.

by Brickhaus on Feb 15, 2007 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

I See...

You believe that when MOST hitters get hit square on one of their wrists by a pitched ball the wrist doesn't break. Is data collected on this over time? It does not take a lot of force to break a wrist. Most batters hit by pitches don't get hit on the wrist either. The second injury was a middle finger hit by a middle infielder's throw to first when Loney was sliding into second. That is a true freak injury and again, it doesn't take being "brittle" for a break to happen to that body part with that amount of force. So far in a professional career that has extended from 2002 to 2006, Loney has not had any of the "pulls" or "strains" (i.e. soft tissue injuries) that are the hallmark of the true "injury prone player," like Garciaparra.

by CanuckDodger on Feb 15, 2007 10:55 PM EST up reply actions

2015?

Torn shoulder? Just curious about the drop-off. I know this is for fun, but that is quite a drop-off for the year after an extremely memorable 2014 that is 1980's Mattingly-esque. Also curious to know if he remains a 1B during his career or is some of it in the OF and as a DH when he signed with the Angels?

by dlpme77 on Feb 14, 2007 8:51 PM EST reply actions

Garvey comparison

That is a spooky comparison to Garvey. I think it is probably accurate too.

Nice touch to return Looney to Houston for a spell, too.

by C @ Minor League Ball on Feb 14, 2007 10:53 PM EST reply actions

reminds me of paul oneill

type stats, if thats true, very solid numbers.

Lincecum is the blood diamond.

by realityconquest on Feb 15, 2007 12:54 AM EST reply actions

definitely like the projections

It's funny though.....I've wanted to post something to say for a while -- just because I'm such a big believer in Loney after this last year, and I was really happy to see you were going to do a Crystal Ball on him. But, once I read your projections, it was tough for me to think of anything to say.

All in all, that's a great career Loney has, and I think it's a pretty accurate projection. The funny thing is, as you mention, he could develop a lot more power or hit for a much higher batting average than you project for him; at the same time, your "balanced" projections likely give him a career in the 90th to 95th percentile of his range.

The only thing I might suggest is that he will strike out even less than you have him doing. Last year, in both the majors, he looked pretty impossible to get a pitch by, even at the season's start (and the year's worth of Triple-A stats -- 34 Ks in 366 ABs as a 21-year-old -- show it too). Even the 10 Ks in the majors were mostly against tough relievers as Grady Little tried his damnedest to completely misuse Loney for the month of September. Still, it's a minor quibble, and I think Loney would be blessed to have a career as long and as steadily productive as this one. I just hope the Dodgers sign him to an extension that you don't foresee.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 15, 2007 1:09 AM EST reply actions

2021

Nice touch there - am I to assume Angelos is still running the ship then?

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/J-R-B --- Projections, prospect spotlights, fantasy bits, and witty banter. Feb 9: Los Angeles Angels Team Preview

by JRB @ Minor League Ball on Feb 15, 2007 10:00 AM EST reply actions

2007

Excellent projections. My only question is how he will get into that many games and get that many plate appearances in 2007. Are you projecting a Nomar injury, or will he take at bats away from Luis Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, etc?

by SethSpeaks on Feb 15, 2007 1:20 PM EST reply actions

nomar

Nomar injury. Just a hunch.

by John Sickels on Feb 15, 2007 1:48 PM EST reply actions

Nomar Injury

Projecting a Nomar injury is kinda like projecting a nighttime darkness.

by FlipYrWhig on Feb 15, 2007 10:53 PM EST up reply actions

sweet

I know looks don't really count for anything, but Loney has such a beautiful swing. It looks like he was born to hit. It reminds me a lot of Kenny Landreaux, which might not be such a ringing endorsement for Loney. Still, I think (hope?) you're low-balling him in this projection. If the Dodgers ever let him play, he could be a superstar.

by coreyt on Feb 16, 2007 12:42 PM EST reply actions

Not A Superstar

A first baseman with only moderate HR power is never going to be a "superstar." But I do think Loney could be a guy who challenges for batting titles in a lot of years while playing Gold Glove defense, and I'll take that any day.

by CanuckDodger on Feb 16, 2007 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

too little

I think this projection downplays Loney's power potential far too much. I think we're looking at a guy who for his career will average a home every 20 AB's, not every 27 AB's. I think that he will develop far better patience at the plate and the walk totals are WAAY too low. He will have 2 or 3 80 walk seasons. I do like the batting average projection, I think it is pretty solid and he may hit even higher than that.

So I would say that we could expect 375 homers, 1500 RBI's, .385 OBP and 5 or 6 all-star appearances.

by Sage Sam on Feb 19, 2007 12:27 AM EST reply actions