Andrew Miller vs. Clayton Kershaw

by jrbro on Feb 1, 2007 7:08 PM EST

I have both of these players in a league of mine that lets you only protect 1 minor leaguer. These are my best two, so which one would you keep? I do not need them to perform for me this season, but am looking at future success. Kershaw seems to be the next Hughes/Bailey/Kazmir High School pitching stud but is a few years away.

Miller is a tall left handed monster who has a ton of potential. He is closer to the majors.

So if you had to choose one, which would it be?

Thanks

Tweet Comment 19 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I also have both

of these guys, but my keeper league allows me a full minor league system, which is nice. From what I have heard and read, Kershaw has a higher ceiling, but being that he is only just removed from high school is the riskier choice.

by was385 on Feb 1, 2007 7:25 PM EST reply actions

Kershaw

I'd go for Kershaw. I wasn't too impressed with Miller when I saw him last year, both in college and the pros. Kershaw looks like he's coming out ahead of Miller in most prospect lists as well.

I ate a Grand Slam @ Denny's yesterday... pooped out a 2 run double today.

by slurve on Feb 1, 2007 7:28 PM EST reply actions

What didnt impress you about Miller?

At least in the pros his stuff looked great and he looked very promising. He got a ton of groundballs and could make hitters miss.

He did have some control issues, but he moved almost straight from college to the majors. He needs a little time in the minors,but not much.

I really think that Miller and Kershaw have the same upside. Kershaw could make it sooner agewise having started sooner in pro ball, but upside-wise I would say that they about even. And Miller is closer and less of a risk.

Just my thoughts, I dont mean to sound attacking, I was just curious what you saw that left you unimpressed.

Have a good one

by grozzy on Feb 1, 2007 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

Miller

I saw him pitch 2 times while in college. One time was OK, the other was terrible. I mean he looked baaaad. I saw him pitch a couple innings in the majors last year, looked OK. More of a gut thing for me. Nothing in particular stood out, I just wasn't very impressed.

I ate a Grand Slam @ Denny's yesterday... pooped out a 2 run double today.

by slurve on Feb 2, 2007 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

real tough

kershaw seems like he has a cleaner projection to real-deal ace, from what everybody says: which is strange, him being only 18 and all. but he's so far away that a lot can happen. the injury nexus, etc. all in all i think i'd take miller.

if this league only lets you keep 1 guy you might even be able to get kershaw back after you promote miller, maybe? depending on how it works.

by wily mo on Feb 1, 2007 7:32 PM EST reply actions

Miller

He is closer to the majors so you have a better idea of what you are going to get. Either way you probably can't go wrong. Wouldn't be nice if the GM of your favorite team had to make that choice?

http://whiteyball.wordpress.com/

Whats that have to got to do with anything?

by whiteyball on Feb 1, 2007 11:08 PM EST reply actions

Greg Miller

A lot of people thought Greg Miller was going to be an ace when he was 19. He broke down and is now a releiver, keep an eye on Kershaw's shoulder.

by Bravesin07 on Feb 1, 2007 11:31 PM EST reply actions

Pitching in General

Pitching is such a shaky thing in terms of injuries. Then you take into account how many years until it will be known if Kershaw (or Miller for that matter) have made it through the so called injury nexus.

I personally was not a big fan of Kershaw's motion when I saw him on the scouting films. It seemed to put some stress on the shoulder.

However that isn't fullproof at all. Its just a wait and see with all of these guys.

Kershaw being a HS draftee seems to have a level of risk attached to him.

But in terms of pure ceiling I do like Kershaw a lot. I may choose him over Miller. However I think Miller could be the safer bet. Neither are entirely risk free though.

Miller has issues with command to work out. Much like Verlander had coming into the Tigers system in 2005 (drafted in 2004 didn't pitch in pro ball until 2005).

by VtTigers on Feb 2, 2007 1:03 AM EST up reply actions

Couldn't you get around this?

Since Miller pitched 10+ innings in the Show last season, can he qualify as a major leaguer under your league rules? Perhaps you can get around making the decision and keep Kershaw as your minor leaguer with Miller already having big league experience?

Failing that, I'd keep Miller. Power lefty, groundball machine, pitching for a team that is capable of getting him some wins. Kershaw is a great prospect, but Miller is so much closer to helping you, and has been a productive pitcher at a higher level (#1 starter for a high profile Division I school, where his ERA was never over 3.00). Kershaw looks like a tremendous prospect, but he's still so far away that any number of things could happen to derail him. Tough decision though.

by morellyn on Feb 2, 2007 9:55 AM EST reply actions

+1

Miller SHOULD qualify as a major leaguer and you should be able to keep both.

by Brickhaus on Feb 2, 2007 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

i'll go with the consensus

i know who i think has the chance to be a better player--kershaw. he's got all the tools and all the skills. that said, miller could be a contributor as early as this september, whereas kershaw's ETA is 2010 or 11. if you can only protect one minor leaguer per season, you should keep the guy who is closer to the show. and it's not like miller's upside is #4 starter or something. he could definitely be an ace himself.

by jpahk on Feb 2, 2007 10:53 AM EST reply actions

Kershaw's ETA

BA projects Kershaw's major league debut possibly by 2009.

by JakeFree on Feb 2, 2007 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

I would not

at all be surprised to see Kershaw get a cup in September of 08. By that time (given good health, of course) he will have pitched 2.5 years in the minors. I know it's not probable, but it wouldn't totally shock me at the same time.

I ate a Grand Slam @ Denny's yesterday... pooped out a 2 run double today.

by slurve on Feb 2, 2007 12:30 PM EST reply actions

kershaw

kershaw will likely begin the year at the high A level, moving to AA no later than next year. with our AAA a pitcher's graveyard, he could jump right from AA to the majors if needed. that being said, he won't be needed for a while . . .

i see him making his debut early in 2009.

by kinbote on Feb 2, 2007 1:29 PM EST reply actions

Go with Miller

I don't know how people get off saying Kershaw has a higher ceiling than Miller. When you factor in that a lot less can go wrong with Miller at this point, I think the choice is obvious.

by limozeen on Feb 2, 2007 1:46 PM EST reply actions

Miller is the obvious choice...

...given your league rules. I mean if Kershaw's ETA is 2009 are you willing to burn your one minor league keeper spot on him the next three drafts? You keep Miller now and you'll have that spot open for another top minor leaguer come next season.

by BaseballJonze on Feb 2, 2007 3:15 PM EST reply actions

Exactly!

Sorry for the double post.

In leagues like this one, you always, always, always keep the guy closer to the majors. To put it another way, going into the 2009 draft would you rather have Kershaw or Andrew Miller and Fernando Martinez? Because that is the decision you are looking at - keeping 1 guy for 3 years or 2-3 guys for 1 year each. When the potential is this close, go with the guy closer to the majors.

by guru4u on Feb 2, 2007 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

I've said it before....

and I'll say it again...no HS pitcher has impressed me as much as Kershaw has since Scott Kazmir.

He's got the big body, decent at worst mechanics, well above average stuff, control, and command. He reminds me of a LH version of Phil Hughes.

Still, I think I'd take Miller right now. Kershaw IS only 18, and still has alot of development left. Miller will be in the rotation soon enough, and even a small improvement in control will help this hard throwing, groundball creating lefty a good starter.

by SenorGato88 on Feb 2, 2007 3:49 PM EST reply actions