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Hughes or Joba?

I just thought of a new, interesting debate.

But honestly, I've gotten back into this debate and it's fun. It really is interesting to see the most famous franchise in sports have two of the most exciting prospects in the game at a position that allows more than one to exist.

I feel like Hughes has gotten EXTREMELY underrated by Joba fans because he lacks the 99 MPH fastball and of course...media savvy.

Both have pretty decent injury histories, and many some of the Joba obsessed (and theres ALOT of them) ignore his past and step around the fact that he pitched only 112 innings last year.

Hughes has had a ton of annoying injuries, and his stuff IS lesser. But I don't buy that Joel Sherman crap about his work ethic. Actually, if either of them have to work extra hard its Joba, with the past weight problems that have affected him.

Honestly, they're both kickass prospects...but I'm becoming more and more torn on who I like more. I'm blown away by Joba's stuff, but Hughes isn't exactly being blown out there. Mechanically, I like Joba better than Hughes, but Hughes' mechanics looked a little off this year.

Hm...maybe I'll make that the difference and take Joba.

Who do you like?

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Hughes
Joba's great but I'll still take Hughes. I think Hughes has better control (which will be more obvious when they are both in the starting rotation next year), he's less of an injury risk, and he's still got some pretty nice stuff... not Joba stuff, but he can definitely hold his own.

Most Yankees fans know that pitching coach Dave Eiland has worked with Hughes throughout his minor league career and helped him develop that nasty curveball. Eiland came up to help at the major league level after the AAA season ended last year and, I would say, not coincidentally, Hughes really started getting back together so much so that by the time he pitched against the Indians, he had that mid-90s fastball back and was throwing a much more biting curve than Yanks fans had seen since he returned from injury.

With Eiland as the major league pitching coach all of next season, I see Hughes doing great things and showing better stuff than he showed for most of last year.

by Stephcaflowne on Dec 7, 2007 11:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hughes and its not even clsoe right now
I wanna see Joba start where hs 99mph becomes 94mph in the 6th & 7th innings. Hughes has proven he can start in the majors Joba has not. John Smoltz has said its a lot easier to dial it up for 1 inning compared to pacing yourself and going 7 innings.

by Havok1517 on Dec 7, 2007 11:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well...
Not that I disagree with you totally, but I think most pitchers can still get by with mid-90s heat, especially if they have a slider like Chamberlain does. I've seen Joba starts in the minors, and he keeps his velocity pretty well late into the game. I think he paces himself well. When starting, he'll have a larger variance in velocity (say, 93-99 instead of 95-100) but can still dial it all the way up when he needs to.

I take Hughes too but I think it may be closer than you say.

by Stephcaflowne on Dec 8, 2007 12:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

keep i mind...
...that Joba has 4 pitches.  A 94 mph fastball in the 6th & 7th innings, mixed with his other pitches, is still pretty darn good.

by sabernar on Dec 8, 2007 10:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting
You do realize that Hughes hasn't shown the ability to go deep in games either, don't you?  I'm not disagreeing with you about Joba, but Hughes' velocity really slipped when got into the middle innings in the starts I watched of his last year.

by ajohnst1 on Dec 8, 2007 11:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Joba has been
overrated because of his high 90s heat.  Overall, I believe Phil Hughes will be the better pitcher in the long run.  Chamberlain will be a bigger injury risk down the road IMO.

by Darce on Dec 8, 2007 12:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

There are many many
starters that could throw close to triple digits if they pitched for only 1 inning. Honestly there are likely 50 guys starting that could close with near 100mph stuff. Take a starter that can dial it up to 97 starting and he could produce the same results. Closers pitch sometimes less than 10 pitches an inning and batters get one look at them. You really think Papelbon would have a K ratio like he does starting? No, because it is much harder to start.  Joba is vastly overrated right now because people are in love with his stuff. Hey, Homer Bailey would make a great closer but his value is in starting as is Joba's.

I'm not saying Joba is not good or valuable at all. Nor, am I saying he can't be an effective starter but he hasn't shown that yet. Joel Zumaya was the same way but Zumaya was seen as a closer Joba is not. There is a reason why a #1 starter is way more important than a closer. Mariano (questionably the best closer ever) could not cut (no pun intended) as a starter due to injury/performance and was inserted as the closer afer Wetteland.

by Havok1517 on Dec 8, 2007 12:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Joba > Zumaya as a
starting pitcher.

I like him way better mechanically. Zumaya was a high effort guy, Joba throws his gas with a little less effort.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 8, 2007 1:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No argument here
Zumaya has a violent delivery much better suited to short outings. Joba compared to Zoom as a starter is far in Joba's favor. I'd give the edge to Zumaya closing though (if he got off guitar hero and gocarts). But Joba's recent late inning results are what people are excited about. He hasn't started a game in the MLB. My point being, he hasn't proven anything except that he's composed, has good stuff, and can face major league pitching...for 1 inning near the 9th inning. That is it.

by Havok1517 on Dec 8, 2007 1:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

his scouting
reports as a starter say that not only does he reach triple digits, but he does it late into games.

as a starter he was throwing 94-97, up to 100, with that plus-plus curve

some may be overrating him based on his relief success, but others are underrating him saying that his stuff is a product of being a reliever

by bmxstreetrider86 on Dec 8, 2007 4:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wrong
"There are many many starters that could throw close to triple digits if they pitched for only 1 inning."

I really don't believe that this is true.  Throwing 100mph is a very rare thing.  Can some pitchers do it?  Sure.  But not "many many".  Especially not with the accuracy that it takes to actually throw strikes most of the time.

by sabernar on Dec 8, 2007 10:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Many capable of throwing 100
Despite that claim...Joba finished second in the majors for pitches clocked at or above 100 MPH.
...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Dec 8, 2007 10:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No
Thats is pretty close to fact. Remember when Brad Penny was hitting 99mph in the All-Star game? Does he do that in a start? No. But just about any starter that can pitch 97mph can likely hit 100mph if they bear down and don't have to worry about pacing themselves in other innings. This isn't a debate this is a fact.

by Havok1517 on Dec 8, 2007 2:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Definition
Fact: 1) the quality of being actual : actuality - a question of fact hinges on evidence
2)something that has actual existence - space exploration is now a fact
3) an actual occurrence - prove the fact of damage

Evidence.... proof, actual... citing your opinion and your memory of a random radar reading at an exhibition game where no doubt the guns were juiced is not a fact.  It is an opinion, please do not say your opinions are facts.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 8, 2007 6:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not an opinion
it is a fact that a pitcher can pitch faster if they only have to pitch 1 inning or less.

by Havok1517 on Dec 9, 2007 1:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's Close
Hughes has had 13 starts in the majors.  Let's not say he's proven himself as a ML starter just yet.    

by Con on Dec 8, 2007 12:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

compared to Joba's
zero, I'll take Hughes.

by Havok1517 on Dec 8, 2007 12:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Going Joba here myself...
For several reasons...
  1. From everything I've read, Joba's stuff is better than Hughes
  2. His performance, albeit somewhat limited, was better than Hughes
  3. From all indications, the Yanks had Joba as off-limits, and Hughes as not.
His hits are health, a hit which Hughes shares, and his limited innings, but I think 1 and 2 over come that IMO.

I've never read anything that said he loses velocity in games, but a link to a story that said as much may sway me.

by beastball on Dec 8, 2007 12:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

good point
"From all indications, the Yanks had Joba as off-limits, and Hughes as not."

I never considered this and I find it to be very telling.

by kaisertown on Dec 8, 2007 5:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

-1
I think the Yankees had Joba off limits partly because of Joba mania, their fans (and I mean all of them, not just the ones who care about prospects)are in love with Joba, they would very angry if they traded him; Hughes does not have that same kind of love. This is definently not the entire reason, but I believe it at least influenced their decision.

by wir963 on Dec 8, 2007 12:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hughes here by a mile
Hughes will have at least a Mike Mussina type career.  I think Joba will be a lot like A.J. Burnett, great stuff to be an ace but is never healthy for a full season.  Plus he is going to have that weight problem when he hits age 30 and since he's only 6'2 he can't pack on much weight while Phil Hughes is 6'5 and can carry more weight.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 8, 2007 1:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

At least Mike Mussina?
Damn, thats really high praise for a 21 year old whose never had a season without injury.

Agreed on Joba's frame, but not because he's only 6'2.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 8, 2007 1:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nitpicking...
Hughes was healthy all season in 2006.  

by Tabata Time on Dec 8, 2007 1:09 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Joba
  1. Not as homerprone as Hughes has been
  2. Better stuff-nastier
  3. Great mechanics (not that Hughes didn't have great mechanics)
  4. Fastball and K rates
--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Dec 8, 2007 9:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1
it's pretty cut and dry, frankly.

those 4 reasons are spot-on, and add a few more:

-the Yanks are in the best position to judge and they clearly rank Joba above Hughes.

-people obsess about minor Joba injuries, but it's Hughes who has been injured much more -- have to worry about that.

-there are worries about Hughes' ability to keep his stuff late into the games. Joba has shown the ability to keep his stuff into the 7th/8th innings (some people below wonder about that, and clearly they haven't' ever watched Joba pitch in the minors).

it's frankly cut and dry. just because hughes was teh better prospect coming into last year doesn't mean he is now. just as Homer Bailey's star has dimmed a bit, so has Hughes'.

 

by scooter on Dec 8, 2007 10:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"Facts"
1 is wrong, unless you solely consider the ML numbers.
...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Dec 8, 2007 10:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hughes has better control
which is why I think he is going to be Roy Halladay 2.0 or Chris Carpenter St. Louis version.  Joba I think is going to struggle with his control more than you think and his staminum.  Look who had more control issues after one inning, not counting the bug game.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 8, 2007 10:34 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

small sample size
Hughes has twice the innings plus Joba never pitched at AAA.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 8, 2007 11:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

huh?
you're the one who said hughes would have better control. where is your support for that?

by scooter on Dec 8, 2007 11:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hughes has a larger
sample size.  Of course he is going to have more BBs.

by Darce on Dec 8, 2007 11:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: BB/9
Hughes BB/9 in the minors is 2.15.
...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Dec 8, 2007 11:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why?
Hughes was hurt for a large part of this year, just using this year will have serious sample size issues

by Kanst42 on Dec 8, 2007 12:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What? No Tom Seaver?
Hughes will be "at least Mike Mussina" and now he's Roy Halladay and a healthy Carpenter?  Thanks for reminding me why I haven't frequented this site for so long.            

by Con on Dec 8, 2007 12:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You stop looking at a site because...
You don't like the opinions of one poster?

That's pretty stupid.

by mraver on Dec 8, 2007 3:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm oK with opinions...
What I have a problem with is dudes forming opinions on Lillibridge without ever having seen him play.  It goes way beyond one poster comparing Hughes to Mussina, Halladay and Carpenter.    

by Con on Dec 9, 2007 2:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Play Offs
One of the few times I have seen them both was in the playoffs. Including what I have heard about them, I believe Joba to be much more emotional (which certainly endears him to fans), however, ever since Hughes pitch and nearly win the season, I have been in love with him. His composure on the mound is very good; He reminds me of a veteran pitcher on the mound,

by wir963 on Dec 8, 2007 12:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hijack, sorry
I don't want to make a diary about this, but was wondering how people here would rank the top pitching prospects from this year and last, specifically:   Gallardo, Lincecum, Bailey, Joba, Hughes, Dice-K and Buchholz?
Right now I am thinking Tim, Buch, Gallardo, Joba, Hughes, Dice-K, Bailey.  But I can be swayed!

by drwmsu1 on Dec 8, 2007 12:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How about
Hughes, Lincecum, Buchholz, Joba, Gallardo, Dice K, H. Bailey.

I know I am playing devil's advocate but hey why not. Hughes is two years younger then the rest except for Gallardo and H. Bailey.  As a 21 year old, he has done a lot live up to the name of "phenom"

by Darce on Dec 8, 2007 1:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Push
Reasons to like both - so I call a draw as I think both will have similar success.  Hughes has acquired a case of "what you done for me lately" while Joba is riding a wave of SNTS.
Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Dec 8, 2007 2:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

joba
joba's numbers in 2007 in the minor leagues, as a starting pitcher, were better than anything hughes has ever done. granted, hughes is a year or two younger, but i don't think he's suddenly going to gain 5 mph on his fastball or anything. after age 20, the big improvement most pitchers can make is in their walk rate; hughes's is already quite good.

i don't think this is particularly close, and it's not just "what have you done for me lately." joba right now is a better prospect than hughes ever was, even before we ding him for a so-so 2007.

as an aside, joba, buchholz and lincecum in the past 12 months have caused me to totally re-evaluate what i think of as a great minor league K rate. it's really ridiculous what they've done. i hesitate to say they're going to make us all forget about liriano, verlander, weaver, papelbon, and felix (the insane rookie pitcher class of '05), but nobody has had statistical credentials like this in my memory.

by jpahk on Dec 8, 2007 3:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1...
I said basically the same thing last year when we were debating those pitching prospects, and it's why I say that I'd take Clay and Joba over anyone last year (outside of Timmy).

From what I've found, Beckett had the best minor league run out of anyone I've ever seen. His numbers were absurd, and we haven't seen anything like it since.

by beastball on Dec 8, 2007 4:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm....
Id say Timmy's was as impressive as anybody's in the history of the game simply because it's hard to beat giving up basically ZERO runs (okay 8)

63 Innings       26 Hits       104 K's     .78 ERA

I know reality shouldn't inject here but, anybody who thinks Phil Hughes is a more impressive pitching talent or better PITCHER than Tim is kinda loony IMO. This is to the many previous posters about Hughes, not you pal.

Also if you like Beckett-like minor league dominance you might want to take a gander at Mr. Cole Hamels...bar fights and tons of k's. I'm especially fond of the 10 hits and 36 ks (and 1 walk!) at AAA. Those young aces dont mess around in AAA do they?

by casejud on Dec 8, 2007 6:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

HAHAH~!
You know, whenever I mention the Beckett years, I always forget to qualify it, however, I'm ALWAYS interested in periods of dominance that people bring up when I do mention it.

What I meant was that Beckett had the best full year of domination that I've ever seen in 2001.

140inn 82 hits 34 bb 203k

Hamels had some awesome numbers, but in terms of sustained dominance, I've just never seen anyone put up the combination of control and Ks like Beckett did in 2001. It was awesome!

Now, that's just minor league stuff, I'm not including Pedro's years, which are the best in the history of the game (that should inspire some response from someone!)

by beastball on Dec 8, 2007 9:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True enough there pal
I was looking at Beckett onn baseballrref.com just to refresh and that was quite a season and, even more rare for him not to moved up!! The only other one I remeber was Doc Goodens year at Lynchberg, I believe.

Yes, my friend, Pedro was and still is, amazing :)

I wonder what HIS minor league numbers loooked like...hmmmm. I'll check!

by casejud on Dec 8, 2007 9:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

beckett
yeah, i agree. he belongs in this conversation.

by jpahk on Dec 9, 2007 12:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I dont have strong feelings one way or the other
I feel like at least we know joba can be a shut down reliever even if he fails as a starter, where we dont even know what we can get out of hughes yet.  But i like both and both have tremendous upside, but anyone who is saying that Hughes has higher upside than Joba is not paying attention.

The fact is that Joba has better raw stuff then Hughes.  Therefore his potential is higher.  Its not an insult, no one is saying that Hughes doesnt have good stuff, but hughes throws in the low 90s, topping out at 94,95, and thats a couple of times a game.  Thats good stuff, 91-93 is a good fastball, and he has good command of all his pitches.  

Anyway, if you think Joba is not in shape, or something, maybe you should read this article from espn the magazine.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3142534

 "In mid-November, the 22-year-old punched out a text to Mike Mussina to let Moose know he'd just jogged five miles. The kid challenged the vet: One day next spring, they'll run against each other until one of them cries uncle."

"Around the Yankees clubhouse, Joba's workout ethic is known as "Roger-like." In fact, he plans to visit Clemens this winter and maintains, confidently, that he can go toe-to-toe with The Rocket in the gym. "If he can get me to throw up, it would be the first time," Joba said in September."

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 8, 2007 7:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

control
when was the last time we talked about a top prospect and the best compliment was his control? And how have these prospects fared?

Hughes has a low 90's fastball that is flat. He can locate it well. That makes it a solid pitch but I'm not sure it's a plus pitch. IMO being a flat pitch kind of balances out the control.

He has a curve that he can locate very well. But it's not a swing and miss type. He'll get some swing and misses. It's a nice pitch. I'd probably give it a slight plus.

He's a good prospect but will never be an ace of the staff.

by pedrophile on Dec 8, 2007 8:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

this
isn't even close to being an accurate assessment of phil Hughes. Go read a scouting report or watch his games on MLB.tv ...
"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 8, 2007 9:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

haha is this a joke
like your 4-team trade?

FB--before his lost 2007 season, Hughes had a 92-93 fastball that topped out at 96, 97 without great control. He topped out at 94 in the bigs last season was consistently 90-92. Some of the 89-91s you saw in September, when healthy, were two-seamers, so no, its not flat. Plus pitch.

CRV--Hughes's curve is arguably his best pitch. It's not loopy--in fact, it has a hard downard break. It is in the low-to-mid 70s, and it causes many swings and misses--a strikeout pitch. Plus pitch.

CHG--Hughes's change is a work in progress. It is average, but it really isn't ready to be considered a set-up pitch. The changeup, as is, is there just to give the hitter a different look, but it should improve through spring training and the regular season.

SLD--Hughes's slider isn't talked about much. Hughes used to throw a nice slider, but, as usual with many Nardi Contreras prospects, it was scrapped in favor of a curveball. He throws it in bullpens, but not much in games. It has good movement, and it is in the 80-83 MPH range--however, it sometimes moves too horizontally. This is a result of not having a great feel for the pitch anymore, as he didn't throw it much last season. He should throw it more often, IMO, as it looks to be an above-average pitch.

Control/Command--Hughes's control is his trademark. When right, Hughes has great control and could likely hit a 1-inch box if challenged--plus control. He also has plus command, but it didn't show last year because he left the ball up due to his leg problems.

There's your Phil Hughes scouting report. Sounds like an ace to me...

--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Dec 8, 2007 10:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

huh?
what 4-team trade?

scouting:
FB - I did say low 90's. Not sure what you are arguing? His fastball (4-seamer) is flat.

Curve - Most of the k's were strikes watching. This may be more a result of his location dropping the pitch in the top of the zone. It's a solid pitch and I've said so. Just not an excellent. I said it was between solid or plus.

Change - agreed

Slider - agreed that he will have to throw it more for it to be considered much of anything. It has potential to be much more. But for now I won't consider it a plus pitch until he shows he can make it more consistent

This isn't the makings of an ace to me. Sure, he could put it all together an become one. I just don't see it. Most aces have dominant pitches (considered plus plus) and still many with these dominant pitches never become aces.

by pedrophile on Dec 8, 2007 11:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow.
Are you serious?  Where did you get that scouting report from?

almost every scouting report I read stated that when healthy his fast ball sat 92-95 touching 96 and upper 80s with his 2 seamer.  Also his curveball is a true power breaking ball that sits in the low 80s and is a strikeout pitch.  I have watched almost every game he has pitched because and most of his strikeouts came from his curveball.

Oh and his slider is just as nasty, which used to be is plus plus pitch in highschool.

Now the reason why he sat in the low 90s was because of his hamstring and ankle injury ... he tried to be too careful not to re-injure it.  

Once he gains back his confidence with his front leg he will be able to kick it up a notch on his FB.

by Darce on Dec 8, 2007 10:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

really?
I commented on what he was throwing. I said he was low 90's. In 2006 he was mostly 92-94 which is low 90's. In 2007 he had less velocity.

So where am I wrong?

Yeah, most of his k's were from the curve. But most were strikes looking.

Slider - how many sliders did you see him throw to make this decision?

by pedrophile on Dec 8, 2007 11:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re:
  1. you didnt mention the top-out range
  2. i also saw a lot of swings-and-misses--and isnt it also a testament to his stuff if he gets a lot of k's looking...it means that he just freezes the hitter--and the curves were at the knees fyi
  3. i saw about 10-15 sliders on different days and places...good enough for me to evaluate
is this (+ scouting report) not an ace? then what is an ace to you--5 plus pitches? remember, this guy aint a finished product yet...patience
--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Dec 10, 2007 10:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

at this point
i'll take Hughes. he has a longer track record (filthy milb numbers) having pitched several minor league seasons. joba pitched half of one. one thing that's forgotten is that he was the YOUNGEST PITCHER IN MLB IN 2007 and had an ERA+ of 100 in the AL East! he nearly pitched a no-no his second time out. he was the Yanks best starter in Sept & Oct.

with Eiland as the PC in 08, hopefully he can regain his '06 AA form (when he was sitting 91-96 with a 1-7 curve). his average FB this year was 92.5. very good but not as hard as in 06. was it his changed delivery? i dont know, but i'm confident that with Eiland he'll have an even better 08 than 07.

joba has a higher ceiling for sure, but he may not reach it. the probability that Hughes reaches his ceiling is greater.

Hughes definitely CAN be an Ace. even this year with a mediocre (88-91 mph) fb he got a LOT of Ks.  again, i dont know if that fb was bc of the injury or a change in mechanics. but if he can do all the aforementioned things without his best stuff, what can he do with it? we'll see...

by Travis G on Dec 8, 2007 10:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good point
I know it's somewhat a small sample size, but he did pitch a league average 72.2 innings and most of those were while recovering from leg injuries and without his best stuff (less bite on the curve and less velocity on the fastball). Add to that that he did it at age 21 and it's pretty impressive.

Fully healthy and with his pitching coach to keep his mechanics right all of next season, things look good for Hughes.

by Stephcaflowne on Dec 9, 2007 12:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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