Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2008.
Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2008
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.
- Jay Bruce, OF, Grade A (I'm not worried about the strikeouts given his age and performance)
- Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade A-
- Joey Votto, 1B, Grade A-
- Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
- Todd Frazier, SS-3B, Grade B+
- Matthew Maloney, LHP, Grade B (I have always liked him, has component marks of a power pitcher not a finesse guy even though he doesn't throw hard)
- Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
- Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-
- Neftali Soto, SS-3B, Grade B-
- Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B- (a long way off but a good intuitive feeling)
- Daniel Dorn, OF, Grade B- (major sleeper)
- Jared Burton, RHP, Grade C+
- Tyler Pelland, LHP, Grade C+
- Pedro Viola, LHP, Grade C+ (sleeper!)
- Travis Wood, LHP, Grade C+ (health??)
- Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+
- Scott Carroll, RHP, Grade C+
- Chris Valaika, INF, Grade C+
- Adam Rosales, 1B, Grade C+
- Sean Watson, RHP, Grade C+
- Brandon Waring, 3B, Grade C+ (the strikeouts scare me)
I expect the Bailey rating of "only" a B+ will be controversial. However, this will still get him into the top 20 and possibly the top 10 pitching prospects given the thinning out of talent this year. I like him, but I am worried about his command and I guess I don't like him as much as some people do.
Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!
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Comments
Wow
Is that a mistake?
He didn't do great last year, but he is still considered a top 10, maybe top 20 prospect in all of baseball.
by mlbfan30 on Dec 7, 2007 4:41 PM EST 0 recs
wondering the same thing
by sabernar on
Dec 7, 2007 4:43 PM EST
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Well
Matt
by WayneCampbell05 on
Dec 7, 2007 6:38 PM EST
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Now
by mlbfan30 on
Dec 8, 2007 1:49 AM EST
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Bailey behind Cueto?
by Buchholzz on Dec 7, 2007 5:02 PM EST 0 recs
subjective opinion
variables don't; constants aren't
by overlord on
Dec 7, 2007 5:12 PM EST
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Bailey vs Cueto
by rwperu34 on
Dec 7, 2007 7:37 PM EST
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Response
by mrkupe on
Dec 7, 2007 10:33 PM EST
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Just my opinion
Both are very good prospects, but I think it comes down to whether you want to look at upside or not, because Cueto just doesn't have the stuff Bailey does, although he has that higher floor also with still pretty good stuff.
by dougdirt on
Dec 8, 2007 4:01 AM EST
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Walks
by GoldenSpikes24 on Dec 7, 2007 5:11 PM EST 0 recs
Surprised at Frazier
I guess John must anticipate Frazier has a good chance to advance quickly.
Any comments on this from anyone who's seen Frazier play? Does he have a good feel for the game?
by OJs Suit on Dec 7, 2007 5:12 PM EST 0 recs
I have...
I think he's got a good feel for the game, but I also agree with most of the scouting reports I've seen, in that he's destined to move off of SS, to 3B or a corner OF slot.
Good results at Billings and good results in the Cape League are both positives, I hope he can be the Frazier who goes from prospect to major league regular, as both of his older brothers have failed to clear the high minors.
by kings33 on
Dec 7, 2007 5:36 PM EST
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cueto/bailey
by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2007 5:12 PM EST 0 recs
Your opinion
As a Reds fan, it sure is nice to debate whether there should be 4 or 5 "A" prospects in the system.
by sidnancy on
Dec 7, 2007 5:16 PM EST
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Juan Francisco
by FaceBook on Dec 7, 2007 5:15 PM EST 0 recs
francisco
by John Sickels on
Dec 7, 2007 5:16 PM EST
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Jared Burton
I suspect Bailey's rating is suffering given that a couple of his peers (Gallardo, Hughes) both made bigger waves in the majors this past year. I don't see how his prospect pedigree has eroded from 2006- he pitched pretty well in AAA and showed flashes with the big club. The only thing that held him back was injury problems. And those weren't related to his arm.
by Doc Scott on Dec 7, 2007 5:15 PM EST 0 recs
rookie
by DevilsAdvocate on
Dec 7, 2007 7:20 PM EST
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whoops
by DevilsAdvocate on
Dec 7, 2007 7:21 PM EST
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Was going to make a
Oh well...
So John, do you think Cueto is good enough to keep the size questions off?
by SenorGato88 on Dec 7, 2007 5:15 PM EST 0 recs
Who would you compare him to?
by SenorGato88 on
Dec 7, 2007 5:28 PM EST
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Hell yes
by FrazierFan on Dec 7, 2007 5:26 PM EST 0 recs
no
by bobbymcnally on
Dec 7, 2007 5:31 PM EST
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He isn't going to stay at SS
by FrazierFan on
Dec 7, 2007 6:26 PM EST
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Bailey's Rating
by OJs Suit on Dec 7, 2007 5:26 PM EST 0 recs
John, have you seen Homer pitch?
by daveh33 on Dec 7, 2007 5:27 PM EST 0 recs
I agree
by bobbymcnally on Dec 7, 2007 5:30 PM EST 0 recs
Garza?
by killa on
Dec 7, 2007 7:12 PM EST
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Stubbs
by bobbymcnally on Dec 7, 2007 5:33 PM EST 0 recs
Stubbs
by Tyler on
Dec 9, 2007 10:04 PM EST
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It did a little bit....
I think that as a leadoff hitter he would take pitches that he maybe shouldn't have since the leadoff hitters job is to work a count and let other batters see what the pitcher has.
He only hit outside of the #1 spot 25% of the time, so maybe its just a coincidence, but its worth looking into.
by dougdirt on
Dec 9, 2007 11:37 PM EST
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Darryl Thompson
by jfish26101 on Dec 7, 2007 5:37 PM EST 0 recs
Bailey and Burton
And Burton, who used up his "rookieness" this year, isn't really a prospect anymore. That would bring the list back to 20.
by sweaver on Dec 7, 2007 7:44 PM EST 0 recs
Aha!
by DevilsAdvocate on
Dec 8, 2007 1:38 AM EST
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thoughts
Also, I agree with the folks who think Bailey was dropped too far, but also think he's borderline. And, if I did "write my own book" as was suggested for people with feedback to do above, I would probably find that I had too many "A-" ratings at the start, and would then have to drop Bailey or someone very similar to B+ to gain balance, as I tend to be optimistic about prospects on first blush.
by BobbyMac on Dec 8, 2007 1:42 AM EST 0 recs
B+ailey
He's a two pitch pitcher, but has trouble locating both pitches. His fastball is pretty straight and his changeup was next to non existant in the majors. Major league hitters had no problem with his 93-96 MPH heater. Right now, I think he thinks his 1-2 combo is really good when it is actually very raw.
Phil Hughes was much more impressive.
I would trade Bailey for Bedard or at least try to. Cueto will be better.
Bailey has the potential to be great because of his arm and break of his curveball, but he needs a lot of work. First things first, finding the strike zone consistently.
by UncleBuck44 on Dec 8, 2007 2:23 AM EST 0 recs
Bailey and his curveball
by dougdirt on
Dec 8, 2007 4:04 AM EST
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Re
Being able to locate doesn't necessarily mean throwing it for strike. An 0-2 curve and really a 1-2 curve shouldn't be a hittable pitch, meaning not a strike.
by UncleBuck44 on
Dec 10, 2007 12:09 AM EST
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He allowed 4 hits off of his curve last year
by dougdirt on
Dec 10, 2007 1:02 AM EST
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three things
- no Daryl Thompson. I think he belongs ahead of Scott Carroll.
- Why so high on Neftali Soto? Have you seen him play or something?
- You say that this is a strong system, yet 4 guys in the top 10 are 2007 draftees. Was the draft that good, in your opinion?
by TheBlues on Dec 8, 2007 2:58 AM EST 0 recs
Soto
Also, there are 3 guys from the 2007 draft in the top 10. Mesoraco, Frazier and Soto. Right now, the draft looks pretty solid. Frazier is a legit bat and expect big things from him next year.
by dougdirt on
Dec 8, 2007 4:07 AM EST
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1st-round supplemental
by DevilsAdvocate on
Dec 8, 2007 8:20 AM EST
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Ah, I can't read
Yes, he was. Don't mind the town idiot, I am just wandering in circles.
by dougdirt on
Dec 8, 2007 10:28 AM EST
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Cueto
by ncassman on Dec 8, 2007 11:40 AM EST 0 recs
Workload
- He has great command, and is very economical with his pitches. It's not simply innings or pitch counts that lead to injuries, it's thowing pitches while fatigued. Cueto's not a guy who gets himself in trouble, and thus is less prone to the 30 pitch innings that causes the fatigue that leads to injury.
- He works at less than max-effort. The scouting reports I've read say that he varies the speed on his fastball, working 88-92 most of the time, and reaching back for 96 only when he needs it. That also makes his innings and pitches less worrisome as far as injury.
by BLee2525 on
Dec 8, 2007 12:52 PM EST
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With the Reds
by BoydsOfSummer on
Dec 8, 2007 1:14 PM EST
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Sean Watson
by NYSOX on Dec 8, 2007 2:04 PM EST 0 recs
Cueto...
by Boxkutter on Dec 8, 2007 8:42 PM EST 0 recs
Thoughts on hitters at the top of the draft
Mesoraco... seemingly came out of nowhere to be considered a 1st rounder. The Pudge Rodriguez comps that I had heard just don't hold weight and probably weren't fair to the kid. I saw an athletic kid from a small town high school in PA(Punxatawney). He probably dominated that competition because he's a big strong kid with athleticism. If you like him it is because you see potential with the bat. For now you would have to grade him on a huge learning curve. I only saw potential to be an everyday 7 or 8 hole type catcher(just no separator in Power(more line drive,gap) or Avg) that move him to an All Star type. Defensively... Pudge's specialty... there is just no comparison. Instead of a rocket for an arm something Pudge as always had. I saw an average to slightly above average arm. He can get better as a pure receiver but the hands were a little stiff. There is some footspeed that could give the coaches something to work with but again far from a polished receiver that you would take in the 1st round of the draft. I was a little disappointed.
I reserve judgement on Frazier. But a B+ is too high for me. I agree he is a prospect, but with his hitting approach(stiff frontside,low hand hitch and pump). It should be interesting to see how he handles being pitched inside by major league FB's or sliders away with some sort of consistent command by pitchers.
In other words, it's wait until he gets to AA to make some sort judgement. Plain and simple Frazier must hit at every stop. He has good instincts but tool wise he pretty much is average across the board, and lacks the athleticism to play middle of the field at the ML Level. Think Wes Helms type production without the Good Power or Arm strength.
Cozart... solid fielder makes the routine plays, soft hands. Very, very suspect bat, only an average runner at best. Either a real light hitting SS for a bad team or defensive specialist.
All these guys have a chance to be big leaguers just didn't see any star type potential at the top of the draft which was a concern
by dashoreman on Dec 10, 2007 8:32 PM EST 0 recs
Matthew Maloney and Daryl Thompson
by kennythered on Dec 12, 2007 1:36 AM EST 0 recs
strength
And as far as Maloney-vs-Thompson goes, Maloney's got numbers that are just as good as (or better than) Thompson's, except at a higher level. And Thompson has an injury history. So, fairly easy call between the two.
by DevilsAdvocate on
Dec 14, 2007 7:07 PM EST
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