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Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2008.

Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2008

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

  1. Jay Bruce, OF, Grade A  (I'm not worried about the strikeouts given his age and performance)
  2. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade A-
  3. Joey Votto, 1B, Grade A-
  4. Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
  5. Todd Frazier, SS-3B, Grade B+
  6. Matthew Maloney, LHP, Grade B (I have always liked him, has component marks of a power pitcher not a finesse guy even though he doesn't throw hard)
  7. Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
  8. Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-
  9. Neftali Soto, SS-3B, Grade B-
  10. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B-  (a long way off but a good intuitive feeling)
  11. Daniel Dorn, OF, Grade B-  (major sleeper)
  12. Jared Burton, RHP, Grade C+
  13. Tyler Pelland, LHP, Grade C+
  14. Pedro Viola, LHP, Grade C+  (sleeper!)
  15. Travis Wood, LHP, Grade C+ (health??)
  16. Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+
  17. Scott Carroll, RHP, Grade C+
  18. Chris Valaika, INF, Grade C+
  19. Adam Rosales, 1B, Grade C+
  20. Sean Watson, RHP, Grade C+
  21. Brandon Waring, 3B, Grade C+  (the strikeouts scare me)
There are six other guys I rate as Grade C+, and 11 other guys I rate at Grade C. A very rich farm system with a lot of depth.

I expect the Bailey rating of "only" a B+ will be controversial. However, this will still get him into the top 20 and possibly the top 10 pitching prospects given the thinning out of talent this year. I like him, but I am worried about his command and I guess I don't like him as much as some people do.

Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!

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Wow
Bailey is only a B+
Is that a mistake?
He didn't do great last year, but he is still considered a top 10, maybe top 20 prospect in all of baseball.

by mlbfan30 on Dec 7, 2007 4:41 PM EST   0 recs

wondering the same thing
Of course, John has his opinions and I respect them.  I would like to hear his thoughts on Bailey.  Or I guess I (we) could just buy the book.

by sabernar on Dec 7, 2007 4:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well
John has only given out 3 A grades thus far so Bailey could possibly still be a top 10 prospect despite garnering just a B+.  Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Dec 7, 2007 6:38 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Now
Now that I look at it, maybe a B+ is reasonable. I saw I could be the first post and wanted to get the Bailey topic started. (But I still think he should be an A-)

by mlbfan30 on Dec 8, 2007 1:49 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Bailey behind Cueto?
why? Bailey is still a top 5 pitching prospect in baseball. Isn't he?

by Buchholzz on Dec 7, 2007 5:02 PM EST   0 recs

subjective opinion
cueto is in the same class as buchholz and gallardo.  i don't think he is nearly as safe, nor is he as potentially dominant, but still, that very well might be worth an A- grade.  
ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Dec 7, 2007 5:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Bailey vs Cueto
I, too, have Cueto rated ahead of Bailey.

by rwperu34 on Dec 7, 2007 7:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Response
Also have Cueto above Bailey. Not that Bailey is a bad prospect, but Cueto has better command of a wider range of pitches. That counts for an awful lot when we're talking about pitchers at higher levels of competition.

by mrkupe on Dec 7, 2007 10:33 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Just my opinion
Bailey has a higher upside than Cueto.... Cueto has a higher floor. Cueto has good stuff, but its not to the level than Bailey has not is his size that well. Lets also remember that Cueto is older than Bailey is and has all of 22 innings in AAA.

Both are very good prospects, but I think it comes down to whether you want to look at upside or not, because Cueto just doesn't have the stuff Bailey does, although he has that higher floor also with still pretty good stuff.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 8, 2007 4:01 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Walks
My guess would be that its because Bailey walks twice as many people as Cueto

by GoldenSpikes24 on Dec 7, 2007 5:11 PM EST   0 recs

Surprised at Frazier
I'm pleasantly surprised to see Frazier ranked so highly.  Sure, his stats look great in Billings, but he's also 21 already.

I guess John must anticipate Frazier has a good chance to advance quickly.

Any comments on this from anyone who's seen Frazier play?  Does he have a good feel for the game?

by OJs Suit on Dec 7, 2007 5:12 PM EST   0 recs

I have...
But only at Rutgers... have not personally seen him hit with a wooden bat.

I think he's got a good feel for the game, but I also agree with most of the scouting reports I've seen, in that he's destined to move off of SS, to 3B or a corner OF slot.

Good results at Billings and good results in the Cape League are both positives, I hope he can be the Frazier who goes from prospect to major league regular, as both of his older brothers have failed to clear the high minors.

If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.

by kings33 on Dec 7, 2007 5:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

cueto/bailey
I like Cueto better than Bailey. Bailey is still really good, and I know this is a minority opinion, but it's mine.

by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2007 5:12 PM EST   0 recs

Your opinion
I'd be more blunt:  If you don't like my rankings, write your own damn book!

As a Reds fan, it sure is nice to debate whether there should be 4 or 5 "A" prospects in the system.

by sidnancy on Dec 7, 2007 5:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Juan Francisco
I know he bb/k rate is bad, but he was only 19 most of the year, and he hit 25 hr's in a tough Midwest League. Was he close to making the list?

by FaceBook on Dec 7, 2007 5:15 PM EST   0 recs

francisco
He is overrated in my opinion. He has power but he is totally unrefined as a hitter.

by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2007 5:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Jared Burton
John, I don't think you can continue to put Jared Burton on the prospect list.  He spent most of the year with the big club, and will have to pitch his way off the staff in spring training.  He's also 26 already.

I suspect Bailey's rating is suffering given that a couple of his peers (Gallardo, Hughes) both made bigger waves in the majors this past year.  I don't see how his prospect pedigree has eroded from 2006- he pitched pretty well in AAA and showed flashes with the big club.  The only thing that held him back was injury problems.  And those weren't related to his arm.

by Doc Scott on Dec 7, 2007 5:15 PM EST   0 recs

rookie
Despite staying on the Reds' major-league roster all season as a Rule 5 pick, he had some lengthy "injuries" and "rehab assignments" and only threw 43 innings.  So he's still technically at rookie status.

by DevilsAdvocate on Dec 7, 2007 7:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

whoops
except nevermind, there's something about length of time spent on a roster that has an effect.  So I strongly doubt he's a rookie anymore after all.

by DevilsAdvocate on Dec 7, 2007 7:21 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Was going to make a
"oh how the mighty have fallen" post, but it seems Bailey being merely fourth has caught the eye of people just as vigilant as I.

Oh well...

So John, do you think Cueto is good enough to keep the size questions off?

by SenorGato88 on Dec 7, 2007 5:15 PM EST   0 recs

Who would you compare him to?
I can't really think of anyone off the top of my head.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 7, 2007 5:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Sean Henry
Anybody think he deserves to be on the list?  

by sh0619 on Dec 7, 2007 5:17 PM EST   0 recs

Hell yes
Todd. I only wish the Yankees would have taken him instead of Brackman.
Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Dec 7, 2007 5:26 PM EST   0 recs

no
no need to take Todd--yes, nice prospect, but I like Carmen Angelini's potential and his being so polished for a HS player.
--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Dec 7, 2007 5:31 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

He isn't going to stay at SS
He'll play 3B. I like him a hell of a lot more than Brad Suttle.
Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Dec 7, 2007 6:26 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Bailey's Rating
It seems pretty fitting to me.  I know he's young and he has great stuff, but he had some pretty severe command problems at times last year.  And he wasn't as lights-out in AAA as I would've expected either.  He sure looks tough to hit, but 32 BB in 67 innings in AAA isn't so good.

by OJs Suit on Dec 7, 2007 5:26 PM EST   0 recs

John, have you seen Homer pitch?
just curious....or Cueto?

by daveh33 on Dec 7, 2007 5:27 PM EST   0 recs

yes
yes and yes

by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2007 5:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I agree
with the B+ for Bailey--he had a horrible debut with Cincy, with a eye-droppingly bad K rate and results. No top prospect is that bad in a debut, even the bandbox that is Great American.
--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Dec 7, 2007 5:30 PM EST   0 recs

Garza?
I don't get too down on a prospect for a rough debut in limited time with an injury.  Garza's posted a 1.6 WHIP in 133 IP, but I don't think he gets nearly as much flak as Bailey for some reason.  

by killa on Dec 7, 2007 7:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Stubbs
is too low
--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Dec 7, 2007 5:33 PM EST   0 recs

Stubbs
is too high

by BobbyMac on Dec 8, 2007 1:38 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Stubbs
is just right

by DevilsAdvocate on Dec 8, 2007 8:14 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Stubbs
If choking up on the bat cut down his K's for real, he's going to be an elite prospect and be in Cincy really soon.

by Tyler on Dec 9, 2007 10:04 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

It did a little bit....
but another thing that I noticed when checking out his splits, when he was not batting leadoff, he struck out a lot less.

I think that as a leadoff hitter he would take pitches that he maybe shouldn't have since the leadoff hitters job is to work a count and let other batters see what the pitcher has.

He only hit outside of the #1 spot 25% of the time, so maybe its just a coincidence, but its worth looking into.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 9, 2007 11:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Darryl Thompson
Curious what you gave him for a grade?  I know Doug doesn't have much faith in him but his numbers were looking pretty good early last year.  Will be interesting to see what he does this season.  BA had him as the 18th spec in the Reds system last year, 10th in the Nats the year before and 7th in the Nats in '05.  I know the Nats have been weak for a while and he tore his labrum but I thought he was starting to look pretty good.

by jfish26101 on Dec 7, 2007 5:37 PM EST   0 recs

Bailey and Burton
Agree that caution on Bailey is warranted, given his struggles in the majors this year.  Of course, at that time he was apparently pitching hurt, so there is that.  He's probably still an A-.

And Burton, who used up his "rookieness" this year, isn't really a prospect anymore.  That would bring the list back to 20.

Shawn Weaver Cincinnati Reds Blog

by sweaver on Dec 7, 2007 7:44 PM EST   0 recs

Aha!
So that's why there were 21.  I like it when the universe falls into order.

by DevilsAdvocate on Dec 8, 2007 1:38 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

thoughts
For what it's worth, I don't see Votto as an "A-", or Stubbs as a "B-", though they'd be among the better of the next-lower ratings, IMO.  

Also, I agree with the folks who think Bailey was dropped too far, but also think he's borderline.  And, if I did "write my own book" as was suggested for people with feedback to do above, I would probably find that I had too many "A-" ratings at the start, and would then have to drop Bailey or someone very similar to B+ to gain balance, as I tend to be optimistic about prospects on first blush.

by BobbyMac on Dec 8, 2007 1:42 AM EST   0 recs

B+ailey
I totally agree with the B+ for Bailey.  I was not impressed with Bailey at all in his debut this year and I've gone back and watched most of his starts on MLB.com.

He's a two pitch pitcher, but has trouble locating both pitches.  His fastball is pretty straight and his changeup was next to non existant in the majors.  Major league hitters had no problem with his 93-96 MPH heater.  Right now, I think he thinks his 1-2 combo is really good when it is actually very raw.
Phil Hughes was much more impressive.

I would trade Bailey for Bedard or at least try to.  Cueto will be better.

Bailey has the potential to be great because of his arm and break of his curveball, but he needs a lot of work.  First things first, finding the strike zone consistently.

by UncleBuck44 on Dec 8, 2007 2:23 AM EST   0 recs

Bailey and his curveball
He threw it for strikes 67% of the time this year... not exactly 'unable to locate it'
http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 8, 2007 4:04 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re
Does that 67% count the curves in the middle of the plate and up a tad bit that were hit and perhaps hit quite a distance or with great velocity?

Being able to locate doesn't necessarily mean throwing it for strike.  An 0-2 curve and really a 1-2 curve shouldn't be a hittable pitch, meaning not a strike.

by UncleBuck44 on Dec 10, 2007 12:09 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

He allowed 4 hits off of his curve last year
3 singles and a double. Thats it.
http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 10, 2007 1:02 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

three things
  1. no Daryl Thompson.  I think he belongs ahead of Scott Carroll.  
  2. Why so high on Neftali Soto?  Have you seen him play or something?
  3. You say that this is a strong system, yet 4 guys in the top 10 are 2007 draftees.  Was the draft that good, in your opinion?

by TheBlues on Dec 8, 2007 2:58 AM EST   0 recs

Soto
That kid has some real power potential in his bat. Before his injury started to show, he was tearing it up down in the GCL. Not sure where he will play eventually in the field, but his bat is pretty good.

Also, there are 3 guys from the 2007 draft in the top 10. Mesoraco, Frazier and Soto. Right now, the draft looks pretty solid. Frazier is a legit bat and expect big things from him next year.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 8, 2007 4:07 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

1st-round supplemental
Wasn't Lotzkar also from the 2007 draft?

by DevilsAdvocate on Dec 8, 2007 8:20 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ah, I can't read
I thought I saw him at #11.... Doh'!

Yes, he was. Don't mind the town idiot, I am just wandering in circles.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 8, 2007 10:28 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cueto
John or anyone else.  Any thoughts on Cueto's workload and the potential that Dusty will ruin him?  He threw 161 innings this year (23 more than last year) plus went to the Dominican league to pitch more.  He's not a real big guy.  Does this concern you?  Thanks.

by ncassman on Dec 8, 2007 11:40 AM EST   0 recs

Workload
Cueto's workload doesn't scare me for two reasons:
  1. He has great command, and is very economical with his pitches.  It's not simply innings or pitch counts that lead to injuries, it's thowing pitches while fatigued.  Cueto's not a guy who gets himself in trouble, and thus is less prone to the 30 pitch innings that causes the fatigue that leads to injury.
  2. He works at less than max-effort.  The scouting reports I've read say that he varies the speed on his fastball, working 88-92 most of the time, and reaching back for 96 only when he needs it.  That also makes his innings and pitches less worrisome as far as injury.
As for Dusty ruining him, well, ummmmm.....  I'm a Reds' fan, so I suppose I'll just reject your reality and substitute my own.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 8, 2007 12:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

With the Reds
luck with good young arms, hell yes I'm worried. He's up around 190 innings for the year. He should have been shut down 20 innings ago.

by BoydsOfSummer on Dec 8, 2007 1:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Sean Watson
He was in pretty much everyones top 10 the past year. I know he struggled after his promotion..but I understand his future is as a reliever..so is he still a good prospect?

by NYSOX on Dec 8, 2007 2:04 PM EST   0 recs

Cueto...
Do most people have a problem that Bailey is a B+ or just that Cueto is ranked ahead of him? I am guessing it's the latter and not the former. Personally I would only have Cueto as a B+ as well as Bailey. I would put Votto above both and list the pitchers as tied for 3rd on the list. As stated before, Bailey's ceiling is better than Cueto's, but his floor is also lower. People value different things when making lists, and I know when I think about prospects, I prefer a higher floor than a higher ceiling. I like the sure thing.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Dec 8, 2007 8:42 PM EST   0 recs

Thoughts on hitters at the top of the draft
After seeing Mesoraco, Frazier, and Cozart personally. My impression was that each of these guys had a lot more question marks than answers.  

Mesoraco... seemingly came out of nowhere to be considered a 1st rounder.  The Pudge Rodriguez comps that I had heard just don't hold weight and probably weren't fair to the kid.  I saw an athletic kid from a small town high school in PA(Punxatawney). He probably dominated that competition because he's a big strong kid with athleticism. If you like him it is because you see potential with the bat. For now you would have to grade him on a huge learning curve.  I only saw potential to be an everyday 7 or 8 hole type catcher(just no separator in Power(more line drive,gap) or Avg) that move him to an All Star type.   Defensively... Pudge's specialty... there is just no comparison. Instead of a rocket for an arm something Pudge as always had. I saw an average to slightly above average arm. He can get better as a pure receiver but the hands were a little stiff. There is some footspeed that could give the coaches something to work with but again far from a polished receiver that you would take in the 1st round of the draft. I was a little disappointed.

I reserve judgement on Frazier. But a B+ is too high for me. I agree he is a prospect, but with his hitting approach(stiff frontside,low hand hitch and pump). It should be interesting to see how he handles being pitched inside by major league FB's or sliders away with some sort of consistent command by pitchers.  
In other words, it's wait until he gets to AA to make some sort judgement. Plain and simple Frazier must hit at every stop.  He has good instincts but tool wise he pretty much is average across the board, and lacks the athleticism to play middle of the field at the ML Level. Think Wes Helms type production without the Good Power or Arm strength.

Cozart... solid fielder makes the routine plays, soft hands. Very, very suspect bat, only an average runner at best. Either a real light hitting SS for a bad team or defensive specialist.

All these guys have a chance to be big leaguers just didn't see any star type potential at the top of the draft which was a concern

by dashoreman on Dec 10, 2007 8:32 PM EST   0 recs

Matthew Maloney and Daryl Thompson
Who are these guys comparable to and why so much love for Maloney but none for Thompson? I would think Thompson and Fransisco deserve to be on this list. Though Francisco has no polish he still has a higher floor and ceiling than Waring, right?

by kennythered on Dec 12, 2007 1:36 AM EST   0 recs

strength
Keep in mind that Thompson could very well be one of the 6 C+ guys left out of the top 20 in this system.  You'll have to buy the book to find out!

And as far as Maloney-vs-Thompson goes, Maloney's got numbers that are just as good as (or better than) Thompson's, except at a higher level.  And Thompson has an injury history.  So, fairly easy call between the two.

by DevilsAdvocate on Dec 14, 2007 7:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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