Cabrera and Willis to the Tigers - close!

Wow, that's a blockbuster right there.

by NYYLover1000 on Dec 4, 2007 6:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ya wow

if this happens WOW
cant believe the angels messed up and missed out on him

w/e im an a's fan woohoo!
plus i have andrew miller on my fantasy teams and yay hes gunna pitch in florida!

by manny59 on Dec 4, 2007 6:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

trade

Mark my words, trade Miller now.

by BobbyMac on Dec 4, 2007 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

any reason?

Why would you say that?

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 5, 2007 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

see below

Someone else covered the reasons below, and I agree. Mostly Hanley.

by BobbyMac on Dec 5, 2007 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

a potential ace SP thats moving to one of the best pitcher's parks in all of MLB, and an easier league just because another player might make more errors than usual ... sound strategy that is (insert eyes rolling here)

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 5, 2007 8:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

SHIT

eulogio de la cruz to florida is not in the prophecy.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Dec 4, 2007 6:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Vanden Hurk, Miller, Olsen and a healthy Johnson

or Sanchez. Yikes.

Plus, Maybin at centerfield.

To me, Florida won this deal if it went down.

by NYYLover1000 on Dec 4, 2007 6:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

good deal for detroit imo

altho i think willis is toast. they better resign MCab

by High Heater on Dec 4, 2007 6:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

As an Indians fan, I really hope

this is a deal that will happen. Detroit may get a year or two but they will be hamstrung for years. The Cleveland blogs are already jumping up and down with excitement.

by sdtribefan on Dec 4, 2007 6:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hooray

Yeah, I'm sure Cleveland's gonna be thrilled when Miguel goes all Manny on them. ;-) The guy is just a sick hitter.

by Yakker on Dec 4, 2007 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

and Miggy is barely older than most "prospects" entering the league. He's only begun to show the kind of power he actually has; plus if he really is getting in shape anticipating a deal - look out.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 4, 2007 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lest you forget

round is also a shape.

Curtis Granderson fan

by jrose643 on Dec 4, 2007 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ha

good one, my fav. shape anymore (food is yummy)

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 4, 2007 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

clever quip and all

except that round isn't a shape.

by Galt on Dec 4, 2007 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lest we forget

That Cabrera is only 24 years old, and Willis is only 25. I do think it will take Willis some time to get acclimated to the AL, but still. Sheffield is definitely on his way out due to age, but they still have plenty of talent such as Ordonez and Granderson.

by T for Jose Tabatha on Dec 4, 2007 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why

you know Detroit is picking up a 25 and 26 year old here right? One of whom is on an HOF pace?

by nms on Dec 4, 2007 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yah

I think this is the point where I say the obsession w/prospects over actual ML players has gone just a LITTLE too far.

by mrkupe on Dec 4, 2007 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dude.

You do realize that Cabrera's like 25, right?

by abbreviatedman on Dec 4, 2007 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Cabrera in a lineup with Granderson and Ordonez and Sheffield. Lets not also forget about Gullen and Renteria who are pretty nice bats. Also, Willis in their rotation is big too.

by T for Jose Tabatha on Dec 4, 2007 6:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Half right

Adding Miguel to that lineup is just scary. But Dontrelle's nothign more than an expensive innings eater at this point.

by Yakker on Dec 4, 2007 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Unless Willis can bounce back to some degree this year, he's going to be eaten alive in the AL.

"A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day." - Calvin

by RVachon on Dec 4, 2007 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not so much on Willis

He has been in decline for 2 years now; he was terrible last year. In a pitchers park he had a 1.60 whip and 29 HR allowed. His H/IP and his BB/IP have been rising both of the last 2 years and his K/IP have been falling just as fast. Going from the NL to the AL will only hurt him more. An ace he is not, he's not even a good 2 or 3 if you go by his 2007.

I'm not one of the Maybin the superstar believers, but I still think he isn't worth this. 6 players including Miller and Maybin is too much to give up for what is essentially hope that Cabrera will sign an extension and the unlikely potential of Willis.

by AucklandGM on Dec 4, 2007 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this...

... is a huge dice roll. As good as Maybin and Miller could be, they both have some major flaws that really worry you. If you end up getting nothing for a 24-year-old who is one of the best hitters in baseball, you are just doomed. I would have insisted on either established young major leaguers, or at the very least, less volatile top prospects, even if their ceilings were a little less.

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Dec 4, 2007 6:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow

So....this is like a big deal for the Tigers then huh?

The only thing I don't like is how overrated Dontrelle is...but with his youth, handedness, and the fact that he's heading to a pretty decent place to pitch I'm not even too worried there.

Getting Cabrera is just huge...

by SenorGato88 on Dec 4, 2007 6:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Park

I'm sure you're partial to lefties, but even Comerica can't save Dontrelle, IMO. ;-)

After all, it's not like he's in a launching pad now.

by Yakker on Dec 4, 2007 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my writeup on the marlin's young pitching

http://variablesdont.blogspot.com/2007/10/2008-florida-marlins-organizational.html

updated for this trade, scott olsen looks a whole lot better, and andrew miller's stock takes a slight hit.

the marlins' IF defense will likely consist of jacobs-uggla-hanram-mitchell, and that is a huge step up from last year's defensive alignment. the outfield defense, even if maybin is in CF all year, does not look much better, as alfredo amezaga was one of the best CF in the league.

as it was, the marlins system was the richest system i had looked at. as it is now, i expect the rebuild to be complete within 3 years, and they will be the best team in the national league, by far, at that time.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Dec 4, 2007 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why does Miller take a hit?

not arguing it but curious; a slightly better park, but the D behind him? He's not a flyball pitcher so he will rely on that INF more so correct?

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 4, 2007 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hanley ramirez is the main reason

miller getting buried in the marlins depth chart is a close second. if he struggles for any amount of time, there are plenty of pitchers to take his spot in the rotation.

the phillies, braves, nats and mets teeing off on a southpaw is a distant third.

consider it a throw away comment, if you'd like. personally, i would rather him play for DET than FLA in this situation.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Dec 4, 2007 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh

Personally I like Chris Volstad better than anyone you have on your Marlins top 10. While they do have some nice pitching prospects, their hitters are nowhere near as good even with Maybin who I'm not sold on at all. I think it's much more likely two or three of the AL West clubs will be better than the fighting Fish. They probably won't be the best team in the East. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Dec 4, 2007 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i severely overlooked volstad

but that being said, i'm very high on the 10 players ahead of him, and he was the last player i cut from my considerations, making him 11th, at worst.

i think i might have projected an injury onto him, and i didn't read his very intriguing scouting report until after i posted the list, but short of that, i just completely missed on him.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Dec 4, 2007 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No way the Marlins

will be at the top of the NL in 3 years. Yes, they do have a loaded system, but by then, the current players are arbitration eligible and will likely be traded in another dump for prospects.

The only hope for the Marlins is for Loria to sell the team or to relocate, probably both.

by jjr on Dec 5, 2007 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by McLovin on Dec 5, 2007 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if i've read the situation correctly

the marlins are building a very impressive warchest. they are pocketing tens of millions in revenue sharing each year, plus MLBAM is handing out HUGE dividends.

the warchest i refer to could be paid into $15 million per year over the last 2 years, from revenue sharing and MLBAM, alone. if they are making anything at all from tickets and merchandise, that also would go straight into the war chest.

projecting 3 more years into the future, they could have as much as $75 million to begin putting back into their roster, at a time when hanram, josh johnson, anibal sanchez, josh willingham, and jeremy hermida start getting really expensive.

a new stadium would complicate this plan, and i don't know exactly how it would affect this warchest, but if cleveland, milwaukee, and philadelphia are any indication of the boon expected from a new stadium, florida could be the next dynasty.

and i absolutely love their pitching.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Dec 5, 2007 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Payroll

So does this mean the 2008 Marlins payroll will total < 10 million?

by McLovin on Dec 4, 2007 6:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

sniffle

Poor Hanley :(

Bubba Crosby :(

by PujolsJunkie on Dec 4, 2007 6:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just wanted to update

ESPN is reporting that this deal is done. No word on all the players going to the Marlins.

by Dfarth on Dec 4, 2007 6:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tigers

Just a total steal, here. Miggy Cabrera is finally GETTING INTO shape. They've finally got the guy who can carry them forward along with Granderson, and they got just a crazy lineup next season...

The rotation should be very good as well (I see, in 2008, Miller-Willis as a lateral move). Willis should benefit from Kenny Rogers. If the Tigers could somehow add Joe Nathan, they'd have to be favorites to win the Wold Series.

They are definitely in the conversation right now.

by GuyinNY on Dec 4, 2007 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If the Sox are indeed getting Santana.

Then I doubt the Tigers getting Cabrera and (very theoretically) Nathan would put them above the Sox. Sox were a better team before these deals go down, and they're a better team after.

Tigers are still top three in the majors now, though, for sure.

by abbreviatedman on Dec 4, 2007 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

Well, when Boston does finalize Santana, then I'll gladly put them ahead of Detroit. I actually happen to think Santana makes a dynasty possible for the Sox, particularly if they keep Bucholz. Even in the event the Tigers add Nathan. But that's just speculation on my behalf.

That having been said, as of right now, the Tigers are very, very much in the conversation.

by GuyinNY on Dec 4, 2007 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Rabelo.

Is one of the players being included.

by abbreviatedman on Dec 4, 2007 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dumb

A terrible move by the Marlins. Seriously? To Detroit? There's no prospects in Detroit besides Miller, Maybin, Porcello, Crosby, and Trahern. Porcello and Crosby are unable to even be traded.
Who knows what the Dodgers and Angels were offering for Cabrera... but I'm sure they could of traded Cabrera off to the Angels or Dodgers and received possibly Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and another prospect... from the Dodgers... and possibly Jered Weaver, Brandon Wood, and a prospect from the Angels... for JUST Miguel Cabrera. I'm sure they could of gotten two other quality prospects in a seperate deal for Willis. Instead they traded both of them off for just Maybin and Miller... and four no names.

by Angels and Demons on Dec 4, 2007 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Any guess what Maybin's numbers are next year

I'm going .250 15 50 30 40 BB's 160 K's.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 4, 2007 6:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like this

But as a fan of Cabrera, I'm not too happy that he might be spending his prime years in Comerica...

by Lt Melmo on Dec 4, 2007 6:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well isn't Florida's stadium pitcher friendly

Cabrera might hit 30 HR's but he might also get 60 doubles and 140 RBI's next year and hit .345.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 4, 2007 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

we dont know who are the 4 no names
so sayin this trade is dumb is something u cant really say at this point

by manny59 on Dec 4, 2007 6:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

well

its not like they can be guys from anywhere but detroit.

by wildthang on Dec 4, 2007 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention they

are getting Miller and Maybin

by NYYLover1000 on Dec 4, 2007 6:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

John better put off the Detroit Prospect report ..

It was due tomorrow, but I'm betting it will look drastically different than the one he has together right now.

Also Crosby underwent Tommy John recently.

by BaseballJonze on Dec 4, 2007 6:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tigers win this deal no matter who the other 4 are

Not even close in my opinion.

by novaoakland on Dec 4, 2007 7:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Trahern is one of the 4

by Bravesin07 on Dec 4, 2007 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yep

The package of prospects includes catcher Mike Rabelo, RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio de la Cruz and RHP Dallas Trahern from the organization.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071204/SPORTS02/71204065/1050&GID=6+v7uhmP/nDV OT6hb7kYURDTx3Z5lQyMiLXxJuRi9OQ%3D

by thefume on Dec 4, 2007 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Leyland

He's gonna have to do a heckuva sales job getting Pudge to hit 8th or 9th. The lineup looks pretty spot on in the above post, just LF and C are missing. Maybe Jacques Jones/Marcus Thames platoon in LF, and Pudge.

As far as Dontrelle, he'll be the 3rd Lefty in the rotation (Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson) with Verlander and Bonderman the righties. The lefties can slot in anywhere depending on who's pitching better once the season rolls around.

Should be a fun year in Motown.

by fredo on Dec 4, 2007 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Badenhop, Trahern, De La Cruz and Rabelo...

Are the four other prospects.

by BaseballJonze on Dec 4, 2007 7:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I guess Porcello is the only thing left

Wow the Tigers cleaned everything out of their farm system.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 4, 2007 7:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I have no issue with that..

they acquired a 24 and a 25 year old. They are both good proven MLB players (though Willis is slipping). They acquired a potential HOFer in Cabrera. If I'm the Tigers, I do this deal 10 out of 10 times without batting an eye. There is still a lot of development time for Miller, Trahern, Rabelo, Maybin, De La Cruz and Badenhop. All of them will likely not develop into anything close to Cabrera in terms of value. Miller is virtually the same age as Cabrera (I believe Miller is either 22 or 23). The point is, I'd trade prospects for a young superstar like Cabrera.

Also, I like the move by Florida as this seems to be the best package offered. It's win-win in that aspect. The only thing is that the Marlins have to develop them into good MLB players, something that is iffy and may not occur...

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Dec 4, 2007 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah like

Hanley & Anibal ...

Marlins are one of the best at player development. The new version of the Expos almost. They can make'em, just can't keep'em.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 4, 2007 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

-1

I'd hardly call Anibal a success since he blew out his arm early into his second year. They haven't developed an All-Star pitcher since Beckett and he didn't make it to the ASG until this year. And now they've traded their only All-Star regular. The "can't miss" Hermida has mostly missed thus far. Hanley seems to be the exception rather than the rule. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Dec 5, 2007 5:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you're overlooking

quite a few names, esp. pitchers - and all star selections being so "political" anymore mean next to nothing. Watch Hermida next season, badly rushed but he's ready now (evidence his post all-star numbers)

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 5, 2007 8:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention

Hanley was developed by the Red Sox. The Marlins just inserted him into their starting lineup when he arrived.

"A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day." - Calvin

by RVachon on Dec 5, 2007 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

correction

Hanley was almost ruined by the RedSox, if I recall correctly he was turning into a bad apple in their eyes. A singular approach (as Bost. preaches now) doesn't work w/ every player. At least they were smart enough to recognize it & do something about it while they could, instead of pounding the square peg into the round hole as so many other org.s are apt to do. The Marlins let him play, and flourish; of course they had less to "lose" on this.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 5, 2007 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice move, but...

...the Tigers still shouldn't be favorite in the AL, or even the AL Central. Cabrera is a huge, huge, monster huge upgrade over Inge, but acquiring him is countered by the fact that their top 4 hitters from 2007 will (almost) assuredly not be able to repeat in 2008...and getting Willis doesn't change their outlook one bit.

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Dec 4, 2007 7:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah

following the yankees model of the last 6 years is no guarantee.

Possibly 4 below average starting pitchers and a weak bullpen keep the tigers from being truly "scary".

by wildthang on Dec 4, 2007 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

4 below average SP's might be overstating it a little bit. Verlander is strong. The others have their question marks, but they're hardly "below average".

by fredo on Dec 4, 2007 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

possibly 4

I could see one or maybe two of Willis Robertson Bonderman and Rogers posting an era+ over 100, but I certainly wouldn't count on it. I'd probably bet that they are all below average before I would half being above average.

by wildthang on Dec 4, 2007 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Understood

I won't argue very strongly, but I'd say the odds are at least 50/50 that 2 of the 4 turn in average or above seasons. BUT...They are wide open to injury concerns on the staff, and I'd absolutely agree that the pen is awful.

The lineup will have to cover up for the question marks, but I don't think you can argue that they're not much, much better than they were 2 days ago.

by fredo on Dec 4, 2007 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How do you say that about the top 4?

I may be a bit of a homer here but doesn't Cabrera help boost the fact that Maggs can equal his year again because if it is even possible he's going to get even BETTER pitches with Cabrera protecting him. Sheff will be healthy (don't see how you can say he won't perform like he did last year when all he does is DH) and Polanco has been steady the last 2 years. Granderson is entering the prime of his career so i dont understand how you can believe that they may not have equal or better numbers this year after the trade. I'm just loving the fact that Dontrelle can pitch as our #4 and not have to be the ace of the staff like he was supposed to be in Florida. Instead of the tough pitching matchups he should get some wins with the offense producing against the opposing #4 and he can resemble anything close to a 4.00 ERA. As for the prospects we gave up, Miller doesn't have a breaking pitch and struggled with command. The biggest concern to me is losing Trahern. Maybin is hit or miss he strikes out so damn much its disguisting. He's got the tools but i'm sorry Granderson is a gold glove caliber center fielder. The tigers obviously felt strong enough about Curtis that they could do this deal. The next couple years they will just have to revamp the farm system that Dombrowski proved he can build with this trade. If the Red Sox land Santana then we are in for a helluva year in the AL because I personally believe the Tigers thought if they had any chance to win they had to make this move to keep him away from the White Sox who were reportedly pursuing him. Any thoughts on the above comments would be appreciated

by rpm2419 on Dec 4, 2007 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trahern?

Can you - and/or the other Tigers fans here - help me understand the Trahern love? When I see his stats and scouting writeups, I see:

Positives:

Great G/F ratio.
BABIP was a bit high in 2007.
AA this year at age 21, and survived.
"Low 90s sinking fastball".
Good build for pitcher.

Negatives:

270 K in 501 minor-league innings.
.339 OBP allowed in AA 2007.
April and May were best months.
Lefties hit .301 against him in 2007.
Good pitching environment in 2007.

Thanks in advance.

by BobbyMac on Dec 4, 2007 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nice

to see you back

by pedrophile on Dec 5, 2007 2:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Man the AL is gonna be loaded

Tigers getting Cabrera and Willis, who I think is gonna turn his career around.

The Angels who might get Santana

Same with the Sox with Santana

Cleveland

Yankees are gonna tough

and Toronto might be the dark horse here.
(not to mention in my opinion McGowan is my breakout pitcher for this year)

by NYYLover1000 on Dec 4, 2007 7:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I just don't like

this deal for either team.

by wildthang on Dec 4, 2007 7:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hank take notes

if you really want a player this is how you go & get him. Not boast about how much talent you have and issue deadlines to grown executives like you're playing cards with your asswipe frat buddies ...

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 4, 2007 7:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well Said

Hank is a buffoon, as a Sox fan though I am very happy for the Hank era.

by goalieguy on Dec 4, 2007 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As for the Tigers potential Lineup and Rotation:

Renteria- SS
Granderson- CF
Cabrera- 3B
Ordonez- RF
Sheffield- DH
Guillen- 1B
Rodriguez- C
Thames/Jones/Clevlen- LF
Polanco- 2B

Rogers
Verlander
Willis
Bonderman
Robertson, Miner, Vazquez, Durbin?

Granderson and Renteria could flip flop if you wanted to keep Granderson as your leadoff hitter, but to me, this is the best way to get the most power out of their lineup (though it is very right-hand dominant)...

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Dec 4, 2007 8:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

From a tribe perspective...

I don't like facing their lineup, but love facing their pitchers. Down the road, I like facing this team.

Cabrera will slide into the three spot, Ordonez 4, Sheff 5, that's a tough middle to face. They lose Rabelo in the trade and Pudge in '09 to FA, so they need to get a catcher fast. Maybe they strongly suggest to Inge he move back behind the plate ;P

But the above rotation will be juggled a little to put Verlander 1, Rogers 2, Bonderman 3, Willis 4 and most likely Robertson 5. After Verlander, I'm not scared of any of those guys. Bonderman, if he's true to form, will be tough in the first half, roughed up in the second half.

They'll have better offensive numbers, but will have to win a lot of 10-9 games to have a chance in the AL.

by lenred on Dec 4, 2007 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Catcher

Back-up catcher Vance Wilson is reportedly healthy again and two years ago was one of the top two or three backup catchers in the AL.

by LickSplickidy on Dec 5, 2007 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Polanco will not hit 9th

NL West, Prepare to be Ledezmarized

by Grrranderson on Dec 5, 2007 1:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ooooh =(

what a sad day ="(

A Marlins fan in exile. Keep the Fish in Miami!

by jdelavalle on Dec 4, 2007 8:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nate Silver

has an interesting take from the Tigers' side in this BP Unfiltered:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=691

by abbreviatedman on Dec 4, 2007 8:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Four

I don't see how he can possibly make a case for the Yankees being among the 4 best teams in baseball right now. The best case is that Joba and Hughes and Kennedy are going to pitch to 90%+ of their potential immediately in 2008, and that the Yanks pitching remains healthy.

That said, I had the same reaction when I saw this, that it more-or-less got the Tigers up to Cleveland's level.

by BobbyMac on Dec 4, 2007 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yankees.

20077. NY Yankees.
Runs Scored. 968. (2nd was 892)
Runs Allowed.777.

The Yanks offense is about the same, and will prolly score a few runs less since most of their hitters are aging, so it's not like someone will have a huge breakout season. Have to expect a small decline out of some of their older players.

The Yanks got less than 100 IP out of Joba and Hughes last year. If they get 300-350 decent innings out of both this year, they could drop their runs allowed by 40 or more at a minimum.

Last year, the Yanks got 25 starts out of this motley crew. Rasner, Clippard, DeSalvo, Karstens, Pavano and Wright. Combined, 114 IP, and a 6.36 ERA. If Kennedy comes in with a 4.25 ERA for 114 IP as the 5th starter, that's a savings of about 26 runs allowed.

Mussina was awful and had a 5+ ERA. If Joba takes his innings, and sports just a 4.00 ERA, there is another 20 runs allowed savings.

With Hughes likely taking a step forward, saying the Yankees could save 50-60 runs allowed is a fair assessment.

Provided the Yanks stay healthy, they could be around 99-102 wins next year based upon their Pythagorean theorem.

It's late, I may have messed something up, but I don't feel like double checking, besides, this is totally off topic in this thread.

But with some improvement by their SP, the Yanks are a 94+ win @ worst next year, which would mean they are a top 4 team in AL. Even without any improvement in pitching, their run differential was 2nd in MLB last year, just behind the Red Sox. And it's not like they should be worse in 2008.

by Maurice on Dec 5, 2007 5:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Top Four

It won't matter whether or not the Yankees are one of the top 4 teams in the AL. The only thing that matters is that the fourth of those four WON'T make the playoffs. :) One of them will be golfing in October. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Dec 5, 2007 5:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yanks

I fully expect the Yanks to be one of the 4 best teams next year... I just don't think they are there yet. In your assessment, you're starting with an assumption of 214 IP of about 4.15 ERA ball from Hughes and Joba... I certainly think they are that good (in a general sense), but I don't think they can be relied upon to be that good in 2008.

Some aspects you are treating more lightly than I do...
"The Yanks offense is about the same, and will prolly score a few runs less since most of their hitters are aging, so it's not like someone will have a huge breakout season. Have to expect a small decline out of some of their older players."

That sounds right in principle, but ... a) Posada is virtually guaranteed to drop off significantly, b) A-Rod had probably his best offensive season in 2007 (after you adjust for Texas) - though a "typical" A-Rod season is still a force to be reckoned with, c) Jeter/Matsui/Abreu all played at age 33 in 2007, so some decline can be expected from all 3.

Resisting that, Melky and Giambi probably can be counted on to be a bit better. Maybe Cano too. And, while I've always been a Betemit Believer, I don't see him getting much of a role here, so improvement from him doesn't seem too relevant.

I think that the combined impact to the offense will be pretty significant.

They are a very good team, and I don't doubt that Cashman will put them in a position to win. I just think that Boston and Cleveland (and now Detroit, probably) are better than them now. And Silver didn't assert just that the four teams were the top 4, but that they were in a "tie" now. All I'm saying is that it's tough for me to believe that the Yanks are really there already.

by BobbyMac on Dec 5, 2007 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

"I fully expect the Yanks to be one of the 4 best teams next year"

I think the point is that it isn't enough to be one of the 4 best teams next year if all four come from the AL East and Central. The AL West is going to get one of the 4 playoff spots. The East and Central are fighting for 3.

by McLovin on Dec 5, 2007 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

different

That's a different discussion, and is self-evident. I was commenting along the lines of Nate Silver's article. Figuring out which teams are really the best first. The fact that one of them will be sitting at home for the playoffs is another topic (and a good one to discuss :>)

by BobbyMac on Dec 5, 2007 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

trade/lineup

first, i'm not a fan of the trade just because of what it does to the system, and i don't think willis is worth picking up, but that's just my opinion. If they don't have a deal in place with cabrera for an extension, i like this deal even less.

As far as the lineup JT posted, i really don't see them moving Polanco to 9...they need a slap hitter up there to move the leadoff guy into scoring position for the big guns. I could see sliding granderson down to 9 to take some of the pressure off and stack the lineup (like they did with inge last year).

Also, does cabrera have any outfield credentials? I've heard a number of concerns about his defense and 3rd, and was wondering if they could be planning to put him in left and keep inge at 3rd.

i've got a lot of ill bodings about this deal, but dombrowski's got my trust, so i'll keep my fingers crossed.

by djshelto on Dec 4, 2007 8:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

he played RF while lowell was still in FLA

but that's about 50 lbs ago.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (link fixed)
variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Dec 4, 2007 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OF

hmm...with reports of him slimming down and granderson to cover his rear, that could work...

of course, i'm a huge Inge fan, so anything to keep him in the lineup is good in my biased eyes :)

thanx for info!

by djshelto on Dec 4, 2007 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I kinda see....

... Inge possibly platooning with Jones in LF a bit. I know that the plan is already to have Thames do that, but Inge has really raked lefties in his career and so this makes a lot of sense.

by grozzy on Dec 4, 2007 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I could be wrong...

But I believe he's usually played LF over RF, because he was used to 3B and said he was used to that sort of angle.

by abbreviatedman on Dec 4, 2007 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Defensively

It's best for the Tigers to play Inge for his defense and us Cabrera in LF. IMO, that outweighs the offensive benefit of using Jones/Thames/etc.

by mateodh on Dec 5, 2007 12:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

System

The Tigers have shown they will go over slot in the MLB draft by drafting Maybin, Miller, Porcello etc. So while they lost alot out of their farm system, they are one of the few teams that can in essence buy themselves a good farm system and reload quickly. Totally sucks when they get an A- prospect @ #27 in the draft. More than likely, they will do something similar in the next few drafts by signing over slot and getting some impressive talent to restock their system quickly.

by Maurice on Dec 5, 2007 5:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Most here should love the trade for the Tigs...

I mean wasn't the consensus that Maybin was overrated here? I think all the detractors will see exactly what he is by the mid-point of this season. The kid was born a baseball player.

Miller couldn't take the pressure of pitching for a good team at this stage of his development. He would throw only fastballs because that was all he would trust of himself and was seen tearing up when he was pitching poorly on one occasion. I think he's much better off pitching in Florida with much less pressure while he cuts his teeth in the show.

by BaseballJonze on Dec 4, 2007 9:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Miller

gets an upgrade IMO.
-Pitchers park
-should be in rotation right away

by LipstickOnDipstick on Dec 4, 2007 9:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is is a sure thing

that Cabrera stays at 3rd?? I would have to think that they will move him to 1st, and have Sheff as the DH.

by thefordhamflash on Dec 4, 2007 10:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

cabrera to 1st

very doubtful...they just moved guillen to first and acquired renteria because guillen's knees won't let him play short at a high level any more.

this is one of the things that really scares me about this deal...we now have maggs, cabrera, guillen, sheff, and pudge...all of whom are either too old/beat up to play their positions or are getting there quickly, and should be moved to 1B or DH...but there's only 2 spots for those 5 guys, meaning 3 have a good chance of becoming liabilites in the field...

hopefully cabrera is sincere about getting in shape and can become a useful defender for a few years.

by djshelto on Dec 4, 2007 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what about

Guillen to 3B? And Cabrera to 1B; working out or not he's headed there eventually.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 4, 2007 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cabrera to LF

I think it is more likely that Tigers will move Cabrera to LF (and forget the Thames-Jones platoon) and keep Inge at 3B. Inge's bat wasn't much good last season, but he is a terrific defensive 3B.

Of course with Rabelo's departure and no other decent C prospects- maybe Inge goes back behind the plate (especially if Vance Wilson not back).

by Faramir on Dec 4, 2007 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Vance

Vance Wilson will be back and ready for spring training. Thats why Rabelo was expendable.

by SBcaptain2 on Dec 5, 2007 1:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How is the Tiger's offer

...any better than the Angels? I don't get it.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2007 10:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Moreno

Arte bitched about dealing with the Marlins. Not saying that is the reason, but he may have pissed off the FLA front office, and both offers being similar, FLA may have just decided to deal with DET.

by drwmsu1 on Dec 4, 2007 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i havent been on here as much the past few months

...but I dont get how Maybin and Miller have slid so far in everyone's eyes...?...its obvious the Marlins' scouts have great eyes for scooping up top-level ability and molding it into production, as Hanley can attest...so how is this not a huge win for them? Maybin is better than anyone the Halo's couldve given them, as far as a high-ceiling youngster is concerned...I am VERY interested to see what he does in FLA with less pressure, and possibly hitting behind Hanley, and with a blossoming Hermida behind him....

I like this deal for both sides.

by daveh33 on Dec 4, 2007 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I don't think any team had two players with the upside of Maybin and Miller. Now, whether they get anywhere near that ceiling is a different matter, but the ceiling is there. I don't really know what the floor for them is, but it took an M-Cab for Detroit to deal them, that I have no doubt.

That said, I have no doubt Dombroski is the best GM in the business.

Also, as to the possibility of Detroit signing Cabrera long term, I say look at the Illitch's track record with the Red Wings before the salary cap was put in place. That, and the fact that Pudge, Rogers and Sheffield will both be off the payroll after '09 makes me think Detroit will make Miguel a very fair, attractive extension offer next summer.

by drwmsu1 on Dec 4, 2007 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"will both be"

Make that will ALL be. Whoops!

by drwmsu1 on Dec 4, 2007 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Illitch

You are totally correct about Illitch. He has no problems spending big bucks to bring in stars. He did it like crazy with the Red Wings. They were basically beyond Yankee level in the hockey world as far as spending money on all the big name players.

I really doubt the Tigers would have pulled this trade if they didn't think they were going to resign Cabrera at least, if not Willis as well (considering he is worthy of resigning).

by nborton on Dec 5, 2007 2:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Two words

Holy. Crap.

If you are going to trade your prospects for something, Miguel Cabrera is it.

While the package they got is as good as they could get, were I a Marlins fan I would renounce my allegiance right now. Cabrera is the kind of talent you just don't let go. Why the hell would I want to subsidize a team that won't even keep him?

"I feel like I've been around long enough at shortstop to be the leader of Jose Castillo." -- Jack Wilson

by delomir on Dec 4, 2007 11:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thoughts

This is a great deal for both teams. Florida isn't going to resign them anyway.

Also, even if neither signs with Detroit in 2 years, they will get the compensation picks for being free agents, which will be A level. Then they get 3 first round picks two years from now. And knowing how the draft goes, they will just draft the Maybins and Millers of the 2010 draft. Since the small market teams don't draft the high talent/high dollar players.

by nborton on Dec 5, 2007 2:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

edit

edit:

Actually 4 first rounders.

by nborton on Dec 5, 2007 2:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not Really

If one of the bottom 15 teams signs either one, you'll only get a second rounder. Plus it's not a sure thing that Willis will be an A player in two years. He just barely qualified for an A this year and with the change of leagues, I think it'll be safe to say he'll drop even further. I'm not going to post the full list here but here's a clip :

17 Greg Maddux 77.324 A
18 Doug Davis 73.798 A
19 Dontrelle Willis 72.997 A
20 Chuck James 71.955 A

21t Dave Bush 71.715 B
21t Jeff Suppan 71.715 B
23 Ian Snell 71.394 B

Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Dec 5, 2007 5:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs