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2008 community prospect ratings--chin-lung hu

results of the last batch:

phil humber: mean 5.79, SD 1.07
jeff niemann: mean 6.41, SD 1.16
nick adenhart: mean 7.70, SD 1.39
wade davis: mean 8.00, SD 1.27
johnny cueto: mean 8.01, SD 1.21

participation was way down again on this set, i think because the diaries got buried pretty quickly after they were posted. (there's also this holiday thing going on.) so be it.

as usual, full results are here. some interesting things to note:

  1. humber is now (by a lot) the lowest-rated guy we've done thus far.
  2. cueto edged homer bailey, 8.01 to 7.95, for top reds pitcher.
  3. adenhart and davis both ranked pretty highly, but the ratings are somewhat more uncertain than usual both because of the small sample size and the large SD.
onward to the next group.

this thread is for discussion of chin-lung hu, SS, los angeles dodgers. here are some links to hu's stats:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=6864
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Chin-Lung%20Hu&pos=&sid=t400&t =p_pbp&pid=464341
http://firstinning.com/players/Chin%20Lung-Hu-a/

i'll leave this thread open for at least 48 hours. you can vote at any time, but since you can't change your vote, if you are uncertain in any way, it's probably best to refrain from voting until after you get a chance to read the discussion.

the numerical ratings should follow this scale:

10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1

the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.

for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.

Update [2008-1-8 10:32:7 by jpahk]: freeze:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
4 0 0 1 3 33 44 23 2 1

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