3 years out of high school

by Savoy on Dec 29, 2007 4:48 PM EST Comment 6 comments

I know this thought has been discussed in a few different places, but I wanted to collect everyone's thoughts all in one place.
I wanted to compare some player's minor league level after 3 years out of high school based on whether they went the college route or minor league route.
For instance, where would you expect to see players such as Heyward, Vitters, Porcello, J Parker, Moustakas, Lars Anderson, Rowell, Snider, Burgess after 3 years in the minors VERSUS players such as Smoak, Pedro Alvarez, Price, Wieters, or Detwiler? I am not really wanting to discuss these players specifically, but more in general: Would you expect a player with 3 years minor league experience straight out of high school to be--roughly--in A+, AA or higher? Would you expect a player with 3 years of college experience to be at what level? A+, AA or higher?
Does anybody have any research over the past 5 years of some of the top prospect's levels based on this question? Do high school draftees reach the MLB level sooner or do college prospects generally reach the MLB level sooner?
I guess I am really trying to figure out if there is an advantage for a player to jump straight to the minors or play college ball. There are certainly outside influences such as the $$ to play professionally versus the experience of college ball and then you also have the wood bat versus the "ping" debate as well.

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Levels

Most college draftees start in short season ball(that is different than rookie ball). If they are good, they should progress to high A their first full season and do well there. AA second full season, then many jump from AA to the majors or else have only a brief stop in AAA. Elite college draftees will often be in the majors sometime during their first full season. Examples that come to mind include Tim Lincecum, Brandon Morrow, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain from 2006. That was a pitcher heavy draft. Past hitters I can think of who made that kind of jump include Will Clark and Barry Bonds. Can't think of any recent examples.

For HS players, the "normal" progression is rookie ball the first summer, low A the first full season, high A or AA the second full season and then AAA or majors after that.

I would think that most college draftees who are going to make in impact in the majors will be playing in the majors by their 4'th pro season and HS by their 5'th pro season.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2007 6:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Zimmerman

Was in the pros within months of being drafted in 2005, and broke camp in 2006 with the big league team.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Dec 29, 2007 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The fact are in...

...on this and the run completely contrary to the consensus on here.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/12/29/164844/67

This isnt even counting top choices who would have been awesome college players obviously. Not sure if that woukld effect the overall numbers that much though.

Here's my question to the focus group...Do you think the startlingly better performance from College drafties is because of A) Gasp! They get better instruction in College?? That would be a fairly shocking admission IMO B) The players who go to College are, on average, better C) Does the major league machine tend to damage HS players in thier first three years more than College programs do? D) Ignore the data and still act as though HS drafties develop more and have more upside when they dont.

by casejud on Dec 29, 2007 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Selection Bias

E) The scouts get three extra years to weed out the garbage and see how a player deveolops before they draft him.

by rwperu34 on Dec 29, 2007 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

College Players v High School Players

I think first of all you have to compare apples to apples. That is if player a from college and player b from high school are considered to be on the same level in the pros.

That being said nowadays, its seemingly becoming more and more common for college players (or is it just players in general) to jump to the majors at a rapid pace.

I think generally speaking, college players face stiffer competition and tend to be more polished.

I'd assume the average college player would take 2 years to reach the majors, with some taking 3.

So by their third year out of college, barring major injuries, I'd expect them to at least see the majors if not stick there.

For high schoolers, you're probably talking a minimum of an extra year as the player matures both physically and mentally, and develops their skills more.

Clearly, there are always exceptions to the rule though.

Solid rotation-check Imposing lineup-check Hammer in the pen-not even close.

by sportznut3081 on Dec 29, 2007 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Couple notes on college players

-It is pretty difficult to gauge how significant a players performance is in college but fairly easy to gauge performance in the minor leagues. This is because the information is widely available and widely understandable. The competition is pretty easy to gauge for a number of reasons. But in college it is more difficult to gauge that. Batters use metal bats, competition is very watered down, playing fields are drastically different in how they play. On the other hand, minor leaguers competition is understandable and the way stadiums play is widely available.

-College pitchers tend to be less worked. Most college pitchers will throw about 80 innings with their college. Then they'll play summer ball and add 30-60 more, depending on where they play their summer ball and how much their college coach feels they should be throwing. Most good college pitchers will throw about 120 innings (assuming they are healthy) in a season. On the other hand, a lot of minor league pitchers are allowed to throw in excess of 130 innings. Considering the injury risk of rapidly increasing innings (or moreover, workload) a college pitcher comes into the minors at a less durable point in general terms.

-The schedule for a college pitcher is much different than that of a minor league pitcher. Pitching once a week is a lot different than every fifth day.

www.moundtalk.com Scouting Reports, Prospects and more...

by kschellenger on Dec 29, 2007 9:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs