3 years out of high school
I know this thought has been discussed in a few different places, but I wanted to collect everyone's thoughts all in one place.
I wanted to compare some player's minor league level after 3 years out of high school based on whether they went the college route or minor league route.
For instance, where would you expect to see players such as Heyward, Vitters, Porcello, J Parker, Moustakas, Lars Anderson, Rowell, Snider, Burgess after 3 years in the minors VERSUS players such as Smoak, Pedro Alvarez, Price, Wieters, or Detwiler? I am not really wanting to discuss these players specifically, but more in general: Would you expect a player with 3 years minor league experience straight out of high school to be--roughly--in A+, AA or higher? Would you expect a player with 3 years of college experience to be at what level? A+, AA or higher?
Does anybody have any research over the past 5 years of some of the top prospect's levels based on this question? Do high school draftees reach the MLB level sooner or do college prospects generally reach the MLB level sooner?
I guess I am really trying to figure out if there is an advantage for a player to jump straight to the minors or play college ball. There are certainly outside influences such as the $$ to play professionally versus the experience of college ball and then you also have the wood bat versus the "ping" debate as well.
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Levels
For HS players, the "normal" progression is rookie ball the first summer, low A the first full season, high A or AA the second full season and then AAA or majors after that.
I would think that most college draftees who are going to make in impact in the majors will be playing in the majors by their 4'th pro season and HS by their 5'th pro season.
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2007 6:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The fact are in...
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/12/29/164844/67
This isnt even counting top choices who would have been awesome college players obviously. Not sure if that woukld effect the overall numbers that much though.
Here's my question to the focus group...Do you think the startlingly better performance from College drafties is because of A) Gasp! They get better instruction in College?? That would be a fairly shocking admission IMO B) The players who go to College are, on average, better C) Does the major league machine tend to damage HS players in thier first three years more than College programs do? D) Ignore the data and still act as though HS drafties develop more and have more upside when they dont.
by casejud on Dec 29, 2007 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Selection Bias
by rwperu34 on Dec 29, 2007 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
College Players v High School Players
That being said nowadays, its seemingly becoming more and more common for college players (or is it just players in general) to jump to the majors at a rapid pace.
I think generally speaking, college players face stiffer competition and tend to be more polished.
I'd assume the average college player would take 2 years to reach the majors, with some taking 3.
So by their third year out of college, barring major injuries, I'd expect them to at least see the majors if not stick there.
For high schoolers, you're probably talking a minimum of an extra year as the player matures both physically and mentally, and develops their skills more.
Clearly, there are always exceptions to the rule though.
by sportznut3081 on Dec 29, 2007 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Couple notes on college players
-College pitchers tend to be less worked. Most college pitchers will throw about 80 innings with their college. Then they'll play summer ball and add 30-60 more, depending on where they play their summer ball and how much their college coach feels they should be throwing. Most good college pitchers will throw about 120 innings (assuming they are healthy) in a season. On the other hand, a lot of minor league pitchers are allowed to throw in excess of 130 innings. Considering the injury risk of rapidly increasing innings (or moreover, workload) a college pitcher comes into the minors at a less durable point in general terms.
-The schedule for a college pitcher is much different than that of a minor league pitcher. Pitching once a week is a lot different than every fifth day.
by kschellenger on Dec 29, 2007 9:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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