Seattle Mariners
John sent me this to post. He now has 21 teams done.
Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2008
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.
- Adam Jones, OF, Grade B+
- Jeff Clement, C, Grade B+
- Carlos Triunfel, SS, Grade B+
- Chris Tillman, RHP, Grade B+
- Wladimir Balentien, OF, Grade B+ (maybe Grade B?)
- Tony Butler, LHP, Grade B-
- Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Grade B-
- Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+
- Greg Halman, OF, Grade C+ (tremendous tools, but huge strikeout problems)
- Nick Hill, LHP, Grade C+
- Adam Moore, C, Grade C+ (interesting sleeper prospect)
- Kuo Hui Lo, OF, Grade C+ (sleeper I like a lot)
- Matt Mangini, 3B, Grade C+
- Carlos Peguero, OF, Grade C+ (great power, but strikeouts galore!)
- Michael Saunders, OF, Grade C+
- Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP, Grade C+
- Young Chi Chen, 2B, Grade C+
- Austin Bibens Dirkx, RHP, Grade C
- Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP, Grade C (good LOOGY)
- Mark Tuiasosopo, 3B, Grade C
Again, don't get bent out of shape about the exact placement of the C+ guys.
The top four B+ guys also can vary. If you are looking for long-term upside, Triunfel is the best but his risk is also high. Jones and Clement are much closer to the majors, less risky, and should be impact guys themselves, so it depends on what you want to emphasize. I like what Tillman did last year in the Cal League.
Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!
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Comments
Is it sad
by kaisertown on Dec 28, 2007 6:57 PM EST 0 recs
No
I mean, does anyone here get more joy out of a pizza or an inquisitive squirrel than a new list? I thought not.
by Hot Lunch on
Dec 28, 2007 7:39 PM EST
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Happy
by GregJP on
Dec 28, 2007 7:40 PM EST
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If Jones gets a A-, Clement should also
by yoshimi on Dec 28, 2007 7:00 PM EST 0 recs
Maybe it's the injuries
by siddfynch on
Dec 28, 2007 7:08 PM EST
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M's are my team
- Adam Jones, OF, Grade A
- Jeff Clement, C, Grade A-
- Carlos Triunfel, SS, Grade B+
- Chris Tillman, RHP, Grade B
- Wladimir Balentien, OF, Grade B
- Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade B-
- Michael Saunders, OF, Grade B-
- Tony Butler, LHP, Grade C+
- Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Grade C+
- Greg Halman, OF, Grade C+
by gogotabata on Dec 28, 2007 7:08 PM EST 0 recs
Why the downgrade
Tilman gets some pretty nice reviews for tools across the board, and Butler sure looked good at the end of 2006. Can you elaborate, because I'd like to know more about the se guys and their 2007, behind the numbers.
by siddfynch on
Dec 28, 2007 7:10 PM EST
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Saunders
by ajake57 on
Dec 28, 2007 11:45 PM EST
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hitting in the cal league does that
by Bravesin07 on
Dec 29, 2007 10:10 AM EST
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I would agree with this
by jullberg on
Dec 30, 2007 3:58 AM EST
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Adam Jones
I think community members are certainly interested in any evaluations John would be willing to provide - whether that's Joe Mauer, Adam Jones or Rick Porcello. But in the end I think Adam Jones should be excluded from the top 50 lists so it's apples to apples comparison to other industry lists.
by McLovin on Dec 28, 2007 7:13 PM EST 0 recs
I think John and most others use the
by Maxima231 on
Dec 28, 2007 10:18 PM EST
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Hmm
by mcq fesijiba on
Dec 30, 2007 10:08 AM EST
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Never Mind
by mcq fesijiba on
Dec 30, 2007 10:12 AM EST
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Wowza
by rwperu34 on Dec 28, 2007 7:15 PM EST 0 recs
I kind of like this list
by Maxima231 on Dec 28, 2007 7:18 PM EST 0 recs
I love Jones also
Very curious about Clement. Does he have a good chance to join the McCann/Martin class of young catchers?
by doubledribble on Dec 28, 2007 7:19 PM EST 0 recs
Yes/No
by thejew4u on
Dec 29, 2007 3:31 PM EST
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He's not extremely blocked.
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 11:14 PM EST
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Yes, but
by thejew4u on
Dec 31, 2007 12:51 AM EST
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Nope.
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 11:15 PM EST
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Most accurate list I've seen yet!
Great Job John!
by Sabean2009 on Dec 28, 2007 7:20 PM EST 0 recs
Aumont's too young for a B...
Position players though... Let's just say I <3 Truinfel.
by thejew4u on
Dec 29, 2007 3:33 PM EST
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Seattle
Given his age, power and premium defensive position an A- would not be overly generous.
Clement is a bit old to get an A- with those stats.
Still 5 B+ players is pretty good.
by matcohen on Dec 28, 2007 7:23 PM EST 0 recs
I guess I'm the only one who's not big on
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 11:14 PM EST
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Jones
If not, would he be considered for ROY?
by Savoy on Dec 28, 2007 7:29 PM EST 0 recs
Tilman
by Hot Lunch on Dec 28, 2007 7:30 PM EST 0 recs
#2/3. Garza-ish level.
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 11:10 PM EST
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Mark Tuiasosopo
by ISC on Dec 28, 2007 7:31 PM EST 0 recs
wasn't he a house of fire?
by Terry Ryan Jr on
Dec 28, 2007 7:57 PM EST
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Yes
by thejew4u on
Dec 29, 2007 3:58 PM EST
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No
I think he spent all of 2007 in AA.
by GregJP on
Dec 29, 2007 10:41 PM EST
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Oops
by thejew4u on
Dec 31, 2007 12:57 AM EST
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Earlier this season
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 11:08 PM EST
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Him developing power was
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 11:07 PM EST
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Let's hope you get that wish :)
by thejew4u on
Dec 31, 2007 12:59 AM EST
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Brian LaHair
by Savoy on Dec 28, 2007 7:32 PM EST 0 recs
Pretty much, yeah
by dodgem on
Dec 28, 2007 7:59 PM EST
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That's OK.
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 11:04 PM EST
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Nah
by dodgem on
Dec 30, 2007 3:32 PM EST
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my thoughts
I agree with the Clemenet at B+. Injuries and bring his otherwise elite status down to a B+.
I love the aggressive Tillman rating. I like him alot and next year he will probably thrust himself to the top portion of pitching prospects.
by npurcell on Dec 28, 2007 7:54 PM EST 0 recs
I like it...
Jones to an A-. His BB and K numbers keep him from being a straight A player, and could be the reason you only gave him a B+. Defensible grade. I would also knock Triunfel down to a straight B. I would always just grade the really young guys conservatively, but that's me.
Overall, decent system and decent grading. Thanks.
by Boxkutter on Dec 28, 2007 8:19 PM EST 0 recs
Hmmm....
Player B: 23.8% K, 8.3% BB.
by rwperu34 on
Dec 28, 2007 9:10 PM EST
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jawohl
by rwperu34 on
Dec 28, 2007 11:36 PM EST
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Balentien?
I would give him a straight B. It seems that he does not have a wide range of skills. Mostly a power bat - which is a great skill to have, but not worthy of top prospect status.
by doubledribble on Dec 28, 2007 8:22 PM EST 0 recs
Hmmm
Clement = B
Balentin = B-
Alex Liddi is a notable omission.
by phuturephillies on Dec 28, 2007 9:46 PM EST 0 recs
Ryan Rowland-Smith
by maxisagod on Dec 28, 2007 10:30 PM EST 0 recs
RRS
by thejew4u on
Dec 29, 2007 3:42 PM EST
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Morrow will absolutely and utterly fail.
There is absolutely nothing that indicates Morrow will succeed as a starter in 2008. Not numbers, not tools, not anything. When he's inserted into the rotation, it will be as either A) completely misguided, close-minded, stupid analysis; or B) 100% hype job for PR reasons.
I'm going with the former. I don't think the Mariners are smart enough to do the latter.
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 10:08 PM EST
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I won't argue your valid points
The signs have been written, they want Morrow in the rotation. Barring a knock to Bavasi's head, that means he's probably the 5th SP through May at a minimum. I don't know if they'd go with RRS or HoRam at that point, as recent quotes have been about Ramirez doing some "promising" strength building. That's the kind of quote that always brings bile up my throat.
by thejew4u on
Dec 31, 2007 1:07 AM EST
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Whats everyones thoughts on Travis Chick?
by Roo on Dec 28, 2007 10:30 PM EST 0 recs
My thought: currently (and predictably) worthless.
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 11:02 PM EST
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Someone sell me on Truinfel
Yes he held his own but I am just not convinced.
by novaoakland on Dec 28, 2007 10:30 PM EST 0 recs
actually
As far as why he deserves to be ranked so high, it's his great bat. While he showed little power or plate discipline, he was able to hold his own at High A as a 17 year old. He makes excellent contact, and most feel that as he ages and fills out that he'll have solid power. It's impossible to project at his age, but Pujols and Cabrera comparisons would not be outrageous as his absolute upside.
He's clearly an elite, but developing offensive player whose defensive position is still to be determined. He should be a top 10-20 prospect on most lists by this time next year if his development continues.
by vaclipper on
Dec 29, 2007 8:21 AM EST
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IMO, Cabrera is THE top, and
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 10:15 PM EST
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Beltre is another good comp, btw.
by elrey34 on
Dec 30, 2007 1:56 AM EST
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Impressive
Jones is a tough call, but his upside is huge.
Yeah, very nice system. What players might I be able to see in the Cal League this year?
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 28, 2007 11:23 PM EST 0 recs
There's Triunfel, of course.
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 11:01 PM EST
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A couple or three more...
- Tony Butler
- Outside chance at Colin Buckborough -- 18, strong frame, 6-foot-5, 90-91 velo, advanced feel for his curve, was sure to play in college but the organization took a chance to convince him otherwise, and they miraculously did it (see Mariners and Zito, Harden for failures). Dave Cameron calls it "a steal."
- Outside chance at Mario Martinez -- Signed the same year as Triunfel, Martinez was signed for his bat, although he's being tried in both the infield and outfield for now.
- Outside chance at another Latin shortstop signed in 2007. I can't seem to remember his name, but I just remember talk of him profiling as an above-average hitter for a middle infielder -- Orlando Cabrera, if you will. I should get back to you on that.
by elrey34 on
Dec 30, 2007 3:25 AM EST
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The guy you're thinking of...
I think your expectations of who will be there are a bit high. Some of these guys don't have nearly the experience to be thrown in like that... but to add a couple of possibilities to the list...
Edward Paredes, LHP, NWL innings pitched leader in his first year starting, just outside the top 10 in ERA, still working out his delivery but has impressive velocity for a smaller guy.
Nolan Gallagher, RHP, 4th round pick in '07, struggled at Stanford coming from a state with few baseball programs, but has quality stuff and dominated in his NWL tenure.
Ricky Orta, RHP, 4th round pick in '06, latest experiment taking a college reliever with great FB and nothing else and trying him out in the rotation. Working so far, better starting stats than Mark Lowe had, that's for sure.
Gerardo Avila, LHB 1B, only played a few months last year, but was an all star in the AZL the year before and has been slugging around .500 in Venezuela this winter when he should be way over his head.
Jair Fernandez, C, natural backstop with the potential for being an asset with the bat, if only he could get some consistency/focus.
Among other possibilities already mentioned on the list, Lo, Peguero, Mangini...
The '07 T-Rats were a physically talented team, but the challenge of the Midwest League proved to be a bit too much for most of them and their lack of experience showed. In High Desert, however, some of 'em could break through with some interesting performances. It's hard to tell, I was thinking the same thing of the T-Rats this year.
by JY on
Dec 30, 2007 6:17 AM EST
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Thanks Guys
by DrBGiantsfan on
Dec 30, 2007 11:48 AM EST
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While normally I wouldn't expect
Anyway, those are just my favorites that I'll be sure to follow next year. Not a big fan of the rest, but I know we have as many high risk-high reward guys as anyone. But thanks for coming up with DeJesus. I couldn't seem to find it with a brief blog search. I know you keep up a MiL blog and was sure you'd know it.
by elrey34 on
Dec 30, 2007 2:54 PM EST
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Matt Mangini
by Savoy on Dec 28, 2007 11:28 PM EST 0 recs
Mangini has taken more steps back than
He's a surprise candidate this year. I think the ability to be at around Moustakas level (maybe a touch under that) by mid season is still there, but he needs to make up for those lost steps and get over his case of mild vaginitis. More than possible, but still obviously improbable.
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 10:22 PM EST
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hmm
by Savoy on
Dec 29, 2007 11:43 PM EST
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I said Moustakas-level.
Also, remember I'm not claiming that he will be as good as Moustakas.
by elrey34 on
Dec 30, 2007 2:00 AM EST
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Nice point
At first glance, this list was johns best. It still might be, but I consider revising my thought.
by Sabean2009 on Dec 28, 2007 11:32 PM EST 0 recs
CTri vs Big V
by ftheyankees on
Dec 29, 2007 8:19 PM EST
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Division
by DrBGiantsfan on
Dec 30, 2007 1:34 AM EST
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well keith law must be smoking some good crack
by Bravesin07 on
Dec 30, 2007 10:44 AM EST
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young prospects and power...
by ftheyankees on
Dec 30, 2007 11:28 AM EST
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He's obviously more of a natural hitter than
The question at this point is whether you value position over 200 ABs of impressive hitting ability. They're both A- in my book.
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 10:37 PM EST
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Err...
by elrey34 on
Dec 29, 2007 10:37 PM EST
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