Seattle Mariners
John sent me this to post. He now has 21 teams done.
Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2008
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.
- Adam Jones, OF, Grade B+
- Jeff Clement, C, Grade B+
- Carlos Triunfel, SS, Grade B+
- Chris Tillman, RHP, Grade B+
- Wladimir Balentien, OF, Grade B+ (maybe Grade B?)
- Tony Butler, LHP, Grade B-
- Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Grade B-
- Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+
- Greg Halman, OF, Grade C+ (tremendous tools, but huge strikeout problems)
- Nick Hill, LHP, Grade C+
- Adam Moore, C, Grade C+ (interesting sleeper prospect)
- Kuo Hui Lo, OF, Grade C+ (sleeper I like a lot)
- Matt Mangini, 3B, Grade C+
- Carlos Peguero, OF, Grade C+ (great power, but strikeouts galore!)
- Michael Saunders, OF, Grade C+
- Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP, Grade C+
- Young Chi Chen, 2B, Grade C+
- Austin Bibens Dirkx, RHP, Grade C
- Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP, Grade C (good LOOGY)
- Mark Tuiasosopo, 3B, Grade C
Again, don't get bent out of shape about the exact placement of the C+ guys.
The top four B+ guys also can vary. If you are looking for long-term upside, Triunfel is the best but his risk is also high. Jones and Clement are much closer to the majors, less risky, and should be impact guys themselves, so it depends on what you want to emphasize. I like what Tillman did last year in the Cal League.
Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!
0 recs |
106 comments
Comments
Is it sad
by kaisertown on Dec 28, 2007 6:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Jones gets a A-, Clement should also
by yoshimi on Dec 28, 2007 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it's the injuries
by siddfynch on Dec 28, 2007 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
M's are my team
- Adam Jones, OF, Grade A
- Jeff Clement, C, Grade A-
- Carlos Triunfel, SS, Grade B+
- Chris Tillman, RHP, Grade B
- Wladimir Balentien, OF, Grade B
- Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade B-
- Michael Saunders, OF, Grade B-
- Tony Butler, LHP, Grade C+
- Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Grade C+
- Greg Halman, OF, Grade C+
by gogotabata on Dec 28, 2007 7:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why the downgrade
Tilman gets some pretty nice reviews for tools across the board, and Butler sure looked good at the end of 2006. Can you elaborate, because I'd like to know more about the se guys and their 2007, behind the numbers.
by siddfynch on Dec 28, 2007 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Saunders
by ajake57 on Dec 28, 2007 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hitting in the cal league does that
by Bravesin07 on Dec 29, 2007 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would agree with this
by jullberg on Dec 30, 2007 3:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Jones
I think community members are certainly interested in any evaluations John would be willing to provide - whether that's Joe Mauer, Adam Jones or Rick Porcello. But in the end I think Adam Jones should be excluded from the top 50 lists so it's apples to apples comparison to other industry lists.
by McLovin on Dec 28, 2007 7:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think John and most others use the
by Maxima231 on Dec 28, 2007 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
by mcq fesijiba on Dec 30, 2007 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Never Mind
by mcq fesijiba on Dec 30, 2007 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wowza
by rwperu34 on Dec 28, 2007 7:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I kind of like this list
by Maxima231 on Dec 28, 2007 7:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I love Jones also
Very curious about Clement. Does he have a good chance to join the McCann/Martin class of young catchers?
by doubledribble on Dec 28, 2007 7:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes/No
by thejew4u on Dec 29, 2007 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's not extremely blocked.
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but
by thejew4u on Dec 31, 2007 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most accurate list I've seen yet!
Great Job John!
by Sabean2009 on Dec 28, 2007 7:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Aumont's too young for a B...
Position players though... Let's just say I <3 Truinfel.
by thejew4u on Dec 29, 2007 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Seattle
Given his age, power and premium defensive position an A- would not be overly generous.
Clement is a bit old to get an A- with those stats.
Still 5 B+ players is pretty good.
by matcohen on Dec 28, 2007 7:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I guess I'm the only one who's not big on
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jones
If not, would he be considered for ROY?
by Savoy on Dec 28, 2007 7:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tilman
by Hot Lunch on Dec 28, 2007 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
#2/3. Garza-ish level.
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mark Tuiasosopo
by ISC on Dec 28, 2007 7:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
wasn't he a house of fire?
by Terry Ryan Jr on Dec 28, 2007 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
by thejew4u on Dec 29, 2007 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No
I think he spent all of 2007 in AA.
by GregJP on Dec 29, 2007 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oops
by thejew4u on Dec 31, 2007 12:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Earlier this season
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Him developing power was
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let's hope you get that wish :)
by thejew4u on Dec 31, 2007 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brian LaHair
by Savoy on Dec 28, 2007 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pretty much, yeah
by dodgem on Dec 28, 2007 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's OK.
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah
by dodgem on Dec 30, 2007 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my thoughts
I agree with the Clemenet at B+. Injuries and bring his otherwise elite status down to a B+.
I love the aggressive Tillman rating. I like him alot and next year he will probably thrust himself to the top portion of pitching prospects.
by npurcell on Dec 28, 2007 7:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like it...
Jones to an A-. His BB and K numbers keep him from being a straight A player, and could be the reason you only gave him a B+. Defensible grade. I would also knock Triunfel down to a straight B. I would always just grade the really young guys conservatively, but that's me.
Overall, decent system and decent grading. Thanks.
by Boxkutter on Dec 28, 2007 8:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm....
Player B: 23.8% K, 8.3% BB.
by rwperu34 on Dec 28, 2007 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
jawohl
by rwperu34 on Dec 28, 2007 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jones has more power than Bruce?
by rmande09 on Dec 29, 2007 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Balentien?
I would give him a straight B. It seems that he does not have a wide range of skills. Mostly a power bat - which is a great skill to have, but not worthy of top prospect status.
by doubledribble on Dec 28, 2007 8:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
Clement = B
Balentin = B-
Alex Liddi is a notable omission.
by phuturephillies on Dec 28, 2007 9:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Rowland-Smith
by maxisagod on Dec 28, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
RRS
by thejew4u on Dec 29, 2007 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Morrow will absolutely and utterly fail.
There is absolutely nothing that indicates Morrow will succeed as a starter in 2008. Not numbers, not tools, not anything. When he's inserted into the rotation, it will be as either A) completely misguided, close-minded, stupid analysis; or B) 100% hype job for PR reasons.
I'm going with the former. I don't think the Mariners are smart enough to do the latter.
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I won't argue your valid points
The signs have been written, they want Morrow in the rotation. Barring a knock to Bavasi's head, that means he's probably the 5th SP through May at a minimum. I don't know if they'd go with RRS or HoRam at that point, as recent quotes have been about Ramirez doing some "promising" strength building. That's the kind of quote that always brings bile up my throat.
by thejew4u on Dec 31, 2007 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whats everyones thoughts on Travis Chick?
by Roo on Dec 28, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My thought: currently (and predictably) worthless.
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Without lookin at numbers
by Roo on Dec 30, 2007 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Someone sell me on Truinfel
Yes he held his own but I am just not convinced.
by novaoakland on Dec 28, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
actually
As far as why he deserves to be ranked so high, it's his great bat. While he showed little power or plate discipline, he was able to hold his own at High A as a 17 year old. He makes excellent contact, and most feel that as he ages and fills out that he'll have solid power. It's impossible to project at his age, but Pujols and Cabrera comparisons would not be outrageous as his absolute upside.
He's clearly an elite, but developing offensive player whose defensive position is still to be determined. He should be a top 10-20 prospect on most lists by this time next year if his development continues.
by vaclipper on Dec 29, 2007 8:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
IMO, Cabrera is THE top, and
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd Wager he doesn't even become Beltre
by Bravesin07 on Dec 29, 2007 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Beltre is another good comp, btw.
by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 1:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Impressive
Jones is a tough call, but his upside is huge.
Yeah, very nice system. What players might I be able to see in the Cal League this year?
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 28, 2007 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
There's Triunfel, of course.
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank You
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 30, 2007 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A couple or three more...
- Tony Butler
- Outside chance at Colin Buckborough -- 18, strong frame, 6-foot-5, 90-91 velo, advanced feel for his curve, was sure to play in college but the organization took a chance to convince him otherwise, and they miraculously did it (see Mariners and Zito, Harden for failures). Dave Cameron calls it "a steal."
- Outside chance at Mario Martinez -- Signed the same year as Triunfel, Martinez was signed for his bat, although he's being tried in both the infield and outfield for now.
- Outside chance at another Latin shortstop signed in 2007. I can't seem to remember his name, but I just remember talk of him profiling as an above-average hitter for a middle infielder -- Orlando Cabrera, if you will. I should get back to you on that.
by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 3:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The guy you're thinking of...
I think your expectations of who will be there are a bit high. Some of these guys don't have nearly the experience to be thrown in like that... but to add a couple of possibilities to the list...
Edward Paredes, LHP, NWL innings pitched leader in his first year starting, just outside the top 10 in ERA, still working out his delivery but has impressive velocity for a smaller guy.
Nolan Gallagher, RHP, 4th round pick in '07, struggled at Stanford coming from a state with few baseball programs, but has quality stuff and dominated in his NWL tenure.
Ricky Orta, RHP, 4th round pick in '06, latest experiment taking a college reliever with great FB and nothing else and trying him out in the rotation. Working so far, better starting stats than Mark Lowe had, that's for sure.
Gerardo Avila, LHB 1B, only played a few months last year, but was an all star in the AZL the year before and has been slugging around .500 in Venezuela this winter when he should be way over his head.
Jair Fernandez, C, natural backstop with the potential for being an asset with the bat, if only he could get some consistency/focus.
Among other possibilities already mentioned on the list, Lo, Peguero, Mangini...
The '07 T-Rats were a physically talented team, but the challenge of the Midwest League proved to be a bit too much for most of them and their lack of experience showed. In High Desert, however, some of 'em could break through with some interesting performances. It's hard to tell, I was thinking the same thing of the T-Rats this year.
by JY on Dec 30, 2007 6:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Guys
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 30, 2007 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
While normally I wouldn't expect
Anyway, those are just my favorites that I'll be sure to follow next year. Not a big fan of the rest, but I know we have as many high risk-high reward guys as anyone. But thanks for coming up with DeJesus. I couldn't seem to find it with a brief blog search. I know you keep up a MiL blog and was sure you'd know it.
by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Mangini
by Savoy on Dec 28, 2007 11:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mangini has taken more steps back than
He's a surprise candidate this year. I think the ability to be at around Moustakas level (maybe a touch under that) by mid season is still there, but he needs to make up for those lost steps and get over his case of mild vaginitis. More than possible, but still obviously improbable.
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmm
by Savoy on Dec 29, 2007 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I said Moustakas-level.
Also, remember I'm not claiming that he will be as good as Moustakas.
by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice point
At first glance, this list was johns best. It still might be, but I consider revising my thought.
by Sabean2009 on Dec 28, 2007 11:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
CTri vs Big V
by ftheyankees on Dec 29, 2007 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Division
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 30, 2007 1:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well keith law must be smoking some good crack
by Bravesin07 on Dec 30, 2007 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
young prospects and power...
by ftheyankees on Dec 30, 2007 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's obviously more of a natural hitter than
The question at this point is whether you value position over 200 ABs of impressive hitting ability. They're both A- in my book.
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Question on a prospect way off the list
Has proven himself to be unable to hit a breaking pitch? Lots of power potential (former OU LB commit).
Thoughts??
by Oklahawg on Dec 28, 2007 11:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mad power when he makes contact.
by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 3:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Balentien
by bheikoop on Dec 29, 2007 11:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The knock on him
by thejew4u on Dec 29, 2007 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Both the orgnization and scouts say
by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 3:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yankees TJ Returnees
Thanks!
p.s. I'm a newbie, so if I'm asking something that's repetitive, I apologize.
by ctyank on Dec 29, 2007 11:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Who's the best to judge?
by JRTwins on Dec 29, 2007 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lowrie is the next Michael Young with a better eye
by Bravesin07 on Dec 29, 2007 3:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Young has hit 20+ homers
Let's stick to the CF comparison. I like Ellsbury, but Jones is better.
by FrazierFan on Dec 30, 2007 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed totally
Minor league numbers? Jones >>>> Ellsbury
Ceiling? is it even close?
age: Jones is 2 years younger.
what exactly does Ellsbury have on Jones is beyond me. of the Sox prospects only Buchholz at A seems very reasonable. Ellsbury and Lowrie are both B+ guys really.
by RollingWave on Dec 30, 2007 4:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hehehe
Michael Young is one of the most overrated players in baseball and the most overrated at his position, and Adam Jones profiles much like Mike Cameron, who was among the most underrated players in his prime and possibly the most underrated player for his position (up your's, Gillick!).
And it shall continue...
by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think positional value has something do with it
B+ is still a great grade, and on Johns scale, likely means he will be a star at some point.
Also, insulting someone who allows us to see his rankings here for free, likely is not a good move. And really shows your lack of class and gratitude. And, if you think you can scout better. I suggest you start a blog and see how many people actually care to read it.
by Maxima231 on Dec 29, 2007 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would absolutely love to see
by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 9:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Adam Jones vs. Jed Lowrie
I won't pile on in regards to John's opinion of Jed Lowrie.(I'd grade him a solid B myself and I think they are a different class of player ceiling wise). It is his opinion and its good to see someone stick to their guns rather than flip flop.
I personally, saw Jed Lowrie 1 week this summer and like him but don't think he can stay at shortstop long term which diminishes his value. I don't buy him being an all star at the 3b position at all. I just don't see him as a well above average ML hitter in the future, he lacks the Power, armstrength ideal for that position and as a result a club would always be looking for his replacement.
Lowrie is a player with good instincts an average playable arm, defensively his range is a question mark especially with consistency in making the play in the hole. Average speed(which is a bother to me because the other offensive tools aren't standout type), gap power. My impression of him was he's ok at SS but not the core type you build a championship team with at that position.
However, if you moved him to 2B you just may have something there as an everyday regular. The problem with the 2B scenario for the Red Sox is that they know that they now have an established fan-favorite type player there with Pedroia which makes Lowrie easily expendable for them. This probably is why we are hearing his name in trade talks so much. Most likely teams haven't asked for him specifically so much as the Red Sox are saying if this closes the deal we'll give you Lowrie as well. Just my take on that.
If John is wrong I'm sure he'll be reminded by some of you here. But, also remember this... he is not doing this anonymously. As all veteran scouts will tell you... no one is completely right all the time and mistakes are made, but being right most of the time is the goal. From what I've seen John is correct often and doesn't carry some of the bias that others may have. Remember writers/reporters always are kinder with organizations who give them inside information.
by dashoreman on Dec 29, 2007 11:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ceilings
by GoldenSpikes24 on Dec 30, 2007 12:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nonetheless,
by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 2:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
View www.fourthout.com
by Sabean2009 on Dec 30, 2007 5:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think it is sad
by Ellenlessd123 on Dec 30, 2007 7:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Saunders
In the end, he's got the tools (size, speed), he's showing improvement, he's played well and he's done so at levels he was either young for or on target for. AA is one of the biggest jumps, and he K's enough that I think you'll see an average drop but if he can maintain the walks, and keep his ISO up (out of hitter friendly league but another year older), I think he could have a good year.
A good player for comparison, IMO, is Carlos Gonalez. In 2006 at almost the exact same age (2 weeks diff) he hit .300-.355-.562 in the cally league w/ the same K rate but almost 1/2 the BB rate as Saunders. So Saunders hit .299-.392-.473. I don't think the difference is so severe as to rate one a B+ and the other a C+ (but heh, maybe Gonzalez was overrated). Their OPS diff wasn't as big as it seems anyway b/c OPS underrates OBP. Plus, if you give me 2 guys at 20 years old, one who can't walk, and the other who has less power (but is 6-4, 205), I'd say its more likely that the big kid will develop power as he ages than it is that the other guy will start to learn to take walks.
So yeah, Gonzalez' numbers dropped in AA. As expected. But given Saunders' eye, and his size and speed, I see him as a real breakout candidate if not in 2008 than in 2009.
by jayjay on Dec 31, 2007 6:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind
by elrey34 on Jan 1, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Possibly ...
by jayjay on Jan 1, 2008 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Saunders' splits
Road: 0.286/0.364/0.462
The difference isn't quite as severe as you might think. As a team they have a .150 point difference between home and road splits, but Saunders only had a .101 point difference.
by JY on Jan 1, 2008 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs















