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Seattle Mariners

John sent me this to post. He now has 21 teams done.

Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2008

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

  1. Adam Jones, OF, Grade B+
  2. Jeff Clement, C, Grade B+
  3. Carlos Triunfel, SS, Grade B+
  4. Chris Tillman, RHP, Grade B+
  5. Wladimir Balentien, OF, Grade B+ (maybe Grade B?)
  6. Tony Butler, LHP, Grade B-
  7. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Grade B-
  8. Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+
  9. Greg Halman, OF, Grade C+ (tremendous tools, but huge strikeout problems)
  10. Nick Hill, LHP, Grade C+
  11. Adam Moore, C, Grade C+  (interesting sleeper prospect)
  12. Kuo Hui Lo, OF, Grade C+ (sleeper I like a lot)
  13. Matt Mangini, 3B, Grade C+
  14. Carlos Peguero, OF, Grade C+ (great power, but strikeouts galore!)
  15. Michael Saunders, OF, Grade C+
  16. Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP, Grade C+
  17. Young Chi Chen, 2B, Grade C+
  18. Austin Bibens Dirkx, RHP, Grade C
  19. Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP, Grade C (good LOOGY)
  20. Mark Tuiasosopo, 3B, Grade C
Other Grade Cs, who are interchangeable with those above, include Nate Adcock, Denny Almonte, Aaron Brown, Danny Carroll, Casey Craig, Brodie Downs, Joe Dunigan, Nolan Gallagher, Alex Liddi, Mario Martinez, Kam "The Almighty" Mickolio, Ricky Orta, Edward Paredes, Kyle Parker, Anthony Varvaro, and Jake Wild.

Again, don't get bent out of shape about the exact placement of the C+ guys.

The top four B+ guys also can vary. If you are looking for long-term upside, Triunfel is the best but his risk is also high. Jones and Clement are much closer to the majors, less risky, and should be impact guys themselves, so it depends on what you want to emphasize. I like what Tillman did last year in the Cal League.

Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!

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Is it sad
that I was really excited to open up my internet explorer and see a new top 20?  Seattle drafts and scouts Latin America really well.  Too bad they have no clue how to handle players once they sign.  I pretty much agree with the grades too, except I think Adam Jones should be an A-.  He is major league ready and has a good comnination of skills.  He is still young, plays great defense and shows some pop at the plate.

by kaisertown on Dec 28, 2007 6:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

No
It is awesome.  Just like you.  And me.

I mean, does anyone here get more joy out of a pizza or an inquisitive squirrel than a new list?  I thought not.

Turkey for me please. No, I am all set on stuffing.

by Hot Lunch on Dec 28, 2007 7:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sad
Try Firefox, you'll be happier.  :-)

by GregJP on Dec 28, 2007 7:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Happy
Crap, you were happy.  Firefox will make you that much happier.

by GregJP on Dec 28, 2007 7:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If Jones gets a A-, Clement should also
Clement has been ML ready for 2 years now. Only injury set him back. How about an A- here, especially considering his defense has been pretty good?

by yoshimi on Dec 28, 2007 7:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it's the injuries
that have held Clement to a B+.  

by siddfynch on Dec 28, 2007 7:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

M's are my team
I would give a pretty strongly different grade and list.
  1. Adam Jones, OF, Grade A
  2. Jeff Clement, C, Grade A-
  3. Carlos Triunfel, SS, Grade B+
  4. Chris Tillman, RHP, Grade B
  5. Wladimir Balentien, OF, Grade B
  6. Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade B-
  7. Michael Saunders, OF, Grade B-
  8. Tony Butler, LHP, Grade C+
  9. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Grade C+
  10. Greg Halman, OF, Grade C+

by gogotabata on Dec 28, 2007 7:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Why the downgrade
on Tilman and Butler?

Tilman gets some pretty nice reviews for tools across the board, and Butler sure looked good at the end of 2006.  Can you elaborate, because I'd like to know more about the se guys and their 2007, behind the numbers.  

by siddfynch on Dec 28, 2007 7:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Saunders
I agree that Saunders should be a B-. He put up good numbers this year and improved well on his skills.  Then again, I might just be a little out in front of myself on this one.

by ajake57 on Dec 28, 2007 11:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hitting in the cal league does that
Lets see what he does next year in a neutral environment.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 29, 2007 10:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would agree with this
Most of this looks pretty sound, though I may knock a few guys down.  Jones is probably an A- in my book with Clement and Triunfel at B+.  Balentien should not be rated on the same ranking as Jones and I'd probably knock Aumont up to a B-.  Jones is the head of this class and may not be an A prospect, but is pretty darn close.

by jullberg on Dec 30, 2007 3:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Adam Jones
He has more AB (139) than the rookie threshold of 130. Generally this means he has eclipsed his prospect status.

I think community members are certainly interested in any evaluations John would be willing to provide - whether that's Joe Mauer, Adam Jones or Rick Porcello. But in the end I think Adam Jones should be excluded from the top 50 lists so it's apples to apples comparison to other industry lists.

by McLovin on Dec 28, 2007 7:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hmm
Is it because he did not achieve the 130 abs in a single season and was instead spread over 2 seasons?

by mcq fesijiba on Dec 30, 2007 10:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Never Mind
I found it.  John uses 150 ABs as someone else said.  I was thinking of BA that uses 130 ABs.

by mcq fesijiba on Dec 30, 2007 10:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wowza
Adam Jones a B+? I was expecting a straight A if he's eligible for the list. I'm one of the biggest Maybin supporters there is, but even I have to admit I'd take Jones ahead of him. I'd clearly take Jones ahead of Ellsbury and Votto and of course Lowrie. I don't see any real difference between Adam Jones and Jay Bruce.

by rwperu34 on Dec 28, 2007 7:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I kind of like this list
I have never seen Adam Jones. But I keep hearing how his tools are sick. I agree they rushed him in 2006, and I wish more teams would take the Brewers approach and let some kids play together as a group and advance together. So they get used to winning and mature. Jones is a B+ here. But down the road he could, possibly be great. If the M's dont deal him for Bedard or anyone else. I think that he will struggle big time this year. But I see a break out in 2009.

by Maxima231 on Dec 28, 2007 7:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I love Jones also
Can't wait to see him actually play this year.

Very curious about Clement.  Does he have a good chance to join the McCann/Martin class of young catchers?

by doubledribble on Dec 28, 2007 7:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yes/No
The problem with Clement is that he's extremely blocked on the big club by Kenji Johjima, who the Mariners are very happy with and have under contract through the end of 08. He is certainly ready to make an MLB debut, but it's likely that the Mariners will leave him in AAA for another year (if they don't trade him) to work on his defense. There's been talk of bringing him up as a temporary option at 1B/DH, but the M's have shown no sign of wanting to do that - his value is at C, where the 30-35 HR he projects to hit yearly are much more valuable. As with all prospects he's not a shoe-in to join Martin and McCann, but he's a pretty safe bet to be a quality MLB option at Catcher.

by thejew4u on Dec 29, 2007 3:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but
That still blocks him for another year when he'd probably be the opening day starter on at least 1/3 of the MLB clubs without better veteran options. The M's haven't indicated they're letting Joh go after next year, either... This is a team with (1) a crush on Japanese ballplayers and (2) an extreme preference for veterans over youth. If it's me, I let him go, take my draft picks, and go with the cheaper option... But I'm not as confident the M's will make that play.

by thejew4u on Dec 31, 2007 12:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nope.
He's not as good offensively and not nearly as good defensively.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Most accurate list I've seen yet!
Aumont could be given a B, but maybe it's just that I like 2007 draftees a lot.

Great Job John!

by Sabean2009 on Dec 28, 2007 7:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Aumont's too young for a B...
A pitcher who's still 2-3 years (minimum) from the big club has too much that can go wrong to accurately project, but if things break right for him he should be at least a B by the time he's up consistently in AA/AAA.

Position players though... Let's just say I <3 Truinfel.

by thejew4u on Dec 29, 2007 3:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Seattle
Jones does not have A level plate discipline.  He has never walked much at any level.

Given his age, power and premium defensive position an A- would not be overly generous.

Clement is a bit old to get an A- with those stats.

Still 5 B+ players is pretty good.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Dec 28, 2007 7:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I guess I'm the only one who's not big on
Clement anymore. He has no chance of sticking at catcher for very long and his bat speed has notably decreased. I'd be very, very willing to sell high on Clement.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jones
I don't remember the exact rules for prospects (dealing with Sept callups) but why is Jones considered a prospect?  He has played in 73 games and has 139 AB over 2 years.  Doesn't that disqualify him for "prospect" status?
If not, would he be considered for ROY?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 28, 2007 7:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Tilman
Don't know much about that guy.  What are people's thoughts about his ceiling?
Turkey for me please. No, I am all set on stuffing.

by Hot Lunch on Dec 28, 2007 7:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

#2/3. Garza-ish level.
I personally like Butler better. He had a strong finish to the season and I'll be surprised if he doesn't catch eyes real soon.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mark Tuiasosopo
You must really suck as a prospect if a prospecting guru doesn't get your first name right.

by ISC on Dec 28, 2007 7:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Tui
He's B- for me.  Still very young.

by GregJP on Dec 28, 2007 7:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wasn't he a house of fire?
the beginning of last year. I think that I even posted a diary about it at the time.  I have never seen the man play, so I am not going to make any judgements.  I remember him being written off completely going into 2007 and then coming back from the dead (at the plate at least)  hmmm back to firstinning i go

by Terry Ryan Jr on Dec 28, 2007 7:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes
He was a mid-season all star in high A ball. Then the M's promoted him to AA and he hit a wall, batting .185/.259/.218 in 62 games.

by thejew4u on Dec 29, 2007 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No
Wasn't that in 2006?

I think he spent all of 2007 in AA.

by GregJP on Dec 29, 2007 10:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oops
You're right, my bad. I misread the lines on milb. He went 260/371/404 in AA last year... Crushed the ball in April with a 945 OPS - aided by a .434 BABIP - then dropped below 800 for every month but July (824, also aided by a high .379 BABIP).

by thejew4u on Dec 31, 2007 12:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Earlier this season
he was an XBH machine, and that's when he "came back from the dead." Pretty much everyone had written him off at the end of 2006.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Him developing power was
on my Christmas wish list. He can do about everything else just fine, and he's an amazing athlete with the body to develop power. I've been waiting for years, though.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's hope you get that wish :)
The trends give a little promise... he went 1-1-2-2-3 in HR from April-August.

by thejew4u on Dec 31, 2007 12:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brian LaHair
Has this 1B fallen off the face of "prospectdom"?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 28, 2007 7:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much, yeah
Hit .275 with slg of .431, 12 hr, and no sb as a 25 yr old at AAA.  Mediocre average with no power or speed.

by dodgem on Dec 28, 2007 7:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's OK.
His appearance there was only about 5 weeks.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nah
He had 552 ab's over 138 games at AAA in '07 to put up those numbers.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Bryan%20LaHair&pos=&sid=milb&t =p_pbp&pid=445933

by dodgem on Dec 30, 2007 3:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my thoughts
I think Jones should be an A- as well. The way he destroyed AAA last year along with his tools and age scream out elite prospect.

I agree with the Clemenet at B+. Injuries and bring his otherwise elite status down to a B+.

I love the aggressive Tillman rating. I like him alot and next year he will probably thrust himself to the top portion of pitching prospects.

by npurcell on Dec 28, 2007 7:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I like it...
Mariner fan, and my only changes near the top would be:

Jones to an A-. His BB and K numbers keep him from being a straight A player, and could be the reason you only gave him a B+. Defensible grade. I would also knock Triunfel down to a straight B. I would always just grade the really young guys conservatively, but that's me.

Overall, decent system and decent grading. Thanks.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Dec 28, 2007 8:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm....
Player A: 23.2% K, 7.9% BB.
Player B: 23.8% K, 8.3% BB.

by rwperu34 on Dec 28, 2007 9:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jones, Bruce
Are your answers, no?

by drwmsu1 on Dec 28, 2007 9:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

jawohl
Those are the two. Similar tools, similar ARL, Jones with more HR power, Bruce with more EBH, Jones is a CF that plays RF, Bruce is a RF that plays CF. When my rankings are final, if Jones is on the list, he'll be ahead of Bruce. I don't see how one can be a straight A and the other a B+.

by rwperu34 on Dec 28, 2007 11:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well...
He's shown more in the minors.

by rwperu34 on Dec 29, 2007 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Balentien?
John has the question mark by his name.  
I would give him a straight B.  It seems that he does not have a wide range of skills.  Mostly a power bat - which is a great skill to have, but not worthy of top prospect status.  

by doubledribble on Dec 28, 2007 8:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm
Jones = A-
Clement = B
Balentin = B-

Alex Liddi is a notable omission.

by phuturephillies on Dec 28, 2007 9:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ryan Rowland-Smith
Word is he's going to get a chance to start, not just be a LOOGY. This would change if the M traded for a top end starter, but I think the fact that he could end up as a SP next year may raise his value to a C +, at least in my mind. Otherwise great list!
The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Dec 28, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

RRS
Will be the 6 or 7th SP going into Spring Training. The first 4 are solid locks in Felix/Silva/Batista/Washburn, and it's looking like Morrow is the foregone conclusion to round out the 5. For some unknown reason Horacio Ramirez is still around, too - and if someone got hurt or Morrow doesn't pan out in the 5th slot I'd call it a toss-up between him and RRS for that position. With a fantastic LOOGY in George Sherill on the club, expect RRS to be a meaningful long-relief guy unless there's a rotation shake up.

by thejew4u on Dec 29, 2007 3:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Morrow will absolutely and utterly fail.
RRS will be given the chance to start when that occurs, which I find as a smart decision. I see RRS best succeeding as a reliever over his career, but right now it would be wise of the Mariners to give him a shot in the rotation.

There is absolutely nothing that indicates Morrow will succeed as a starter in 2008. Not numbers, not tools, not anything. When he's inserted into the rotation, it will be as either A) completely misguided, close-minded, stupid analysis; or B) 100% hype job for PR reasons.

I'm going with the former. I don't think the Mariners are smart enough to do the latter.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 10:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I won't argue your valid points
Other than to point out that the Mariners have been consistently one of the worst teams in baseball to admit their rotation mistakes and yank a struggling starter. Joel Pineiro 2006 was left in the rotation through most of July before finally getting the yank with a 6ish ERA. The Mariners were the last team in baseball to still use all 5 of their opening day starters in the rotation before making that move.

The signs have been written, they want Morrow in the rotation. Barring a knock to Bavasi's head, that means he's probably the 5th SP through May at a minimum. I don't know if they'd go with RRS or HoRam at that point, as recent quotes have been about Ramirez doing some "promising" strength building. That's the kind of quote that always brings bile up my throat.

by thejew4u on Dec 31, 2007 1:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Whats everyones thoughts on Travis Chick?
He was in my area a few years back, I dont have his numbers or anything but I expected him to get a mention.

by Roo on Dec 28, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Someone sell me on Truinfel
I get the great defense and only being 17 in High A but think the 17 at high A is a product of Seattle just loving to rush players.

Yes he held his own but I am just not convinced.

by novaoakland on Dec 28, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

actually
Triunfel's defense is not a strength, and most scouts see him moving off SS. He has a great arm, so 3B or RF are his likely landing spots.

As far as why he deserves to be ranked so high, it's his great bat.  While he showed little power or plate discipline, he was able to hold his own at High A as a 17 year old.  He makes excellent contact, and most feel that as he ages and fills out that he'll have solid power.  It's impossible to project at his age, but Pujols and Cabrera comparisons would not be outrageous as his absolute upside.  

He's clearly an elite, but developing offensive player whose defensive position is still to be determined.  He should be a top 10-20 prospect on most lists by this time next year if his development continues.

by vaclipper on Dec 29, 2007 8:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

IMO, Cabrera is THE top, and
Tri has no chance of becoming Pujols. That's overselling him. However, Gary Sheffield is the best comp I've seen. But you're right that it's way too early to project. All projections at this stage are based on body type, body size, and how well he's done at the little steps -- such as, as you mentioned, holding his own against much older competition.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 10:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Beltre is another good comp, btw.
And you're probably right. Most 18-year-olds don't make it, even if they are talented.

by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 1:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Impressive
Very impressive system.  I think Triunfel's grade is a bit enthusiastic. If he's a B+, I would think Angel Villalona should be an A- which I don't expect John to give him.  Surprise me, John!

Jones is a tough call, but his upside is huge.

Yeah, very nice system.  What players might I be able to see in the Cal League this year?

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 28, 2007 11:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

There's Triunfel, of course.
Also Alex Liddi, Greg Halman, Juan Ramirez and outside chances on Amount and Kenta Suda (new signing; 18yo high school dropout in Japan, 6-foot 175lbs, clocked up to 94 mph). I'll tell you if I come up with more, which there are.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 11:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thank You
I'll try to check them out.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 30, 2007 1:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A couple or three more...
  • Tony Butler
  • Outside chance at Colin Buckborough -- 18, strong frame, 6-foot-5, 90-91 velo, advanced feel for his curve, was sure to play in college but the organization took a chance to convince him otherwise, and they miraculously did it (see Mariners and Zito, Harden for failures). Dave Cameron calls it "a steal."
  • Outside chance at Mario Martinez -- Signed the same year as Triunfel, Martinez was signed for his bat, although he's being tried in both the infield and outfield for now.
  • Outside chance at another Latin shortstop signed in 2007. I can't seem to remember his name, but I just remember talk of him profiling as an above-average hitter for a middle infielder -- Orlando Cabrera, if you will. I should get back to you on that.

by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 3:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The guy you're thinking of...
his last name is DeJesus, and I've seen renditions of his first name ranging from Jhirmivy to Jharmidy.

I think your expectations of who will be there are a bit high.  Some of these guys don't have nearly the experience to be thrown in like that... but to add a couple of possibilities to the list...

Edward Paredes, LHP, NWL innings pitched leader in his first year starting, just outside the top 10 in ERA, still working out his delivery but has impressive velocity for a smaller guy.

Nolan Gallagher, RHP, 4th round pick in '07, struggled at Stanford coming from a state with few baseball programs, but has quality stuff and dominated in his NWL tenure.

Ricky Orta, RHP, 4th round pick in '06, latest experiment taking a college reliever with great FB and nothing else and trying him out in the rotation.  Working so far, better starting stats than Mark Lowe had, that's for sure.

Gerardo Avila, LHB 1B, only played a few months last year, but was an all star in the AZL the year before and has been slugging around .500 in Venezuela this winter when he should be way over his head.

Jair Fernandez, C, natural backstop with the potential for being an asset with the bat, if only he could get some consistency/focus.

Among other possibilities already mentioned on the list, Lo, Peguero, Mangini...

The '07 T-Rats were a physically talented team, but the challenge of the Midwest League proved to be a bit too much for most of them and their lack of experience showed.  In High Desert, however, some of 'em could break through with some interesting performances.  It's hard to tell, I was thinking the same thing of the T-Rats this year.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/

by JY on Dec 30, 2007 6:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Guys
I would think Matt Mangini, as a college draftee, might start 2008 in High Desert too.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 30, 2007 11:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

While normally I wouldn't expect
newly signed teenagers to reach High-A, this is Bavasi we're talking about. I know they probably won't make it that far, but if they perform somewhat decently I'd imagine Bavasi thinking of it.

Anyway, those are just my favorites that I'll be sure to follow next year. Not a big fan of the rest, but I know we have as many high risk-high reward guys as anyone. But thanks for coming up with DeJesus. I couldn't seem to find it with a brief blog search. I know you keep up a MiL blog and was sure you'd know it.

by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 2:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Matt Mangini
Is Mangini a Robin Ventura type player or not as good of a hitter as that?  I know they talk about his back being a problem, but does anybody think he can have a decent MLB career?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 28, 2007 11:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Mangini has taken more steps back than
forward over the past year or year and a half. Before that, people were projecting him as a sure-fire first-rounder because of his bat.

He's a surprise candidate this year. I think the ability to be at around Moustakas level (maybe a touch under that) by mid season is still there, but he needs to make up for those lost steps and get over his case of mild vaginitis. More than possible, but still obviously improbable.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 10:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hmm
I can't imagine anybody really putting Moustakas and Mangini in the same potential area code.  Moustakas has huge power potential whereas Mangini's calling card will be good avg.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 29, 2007 11:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I said Moustakas-level.
Not to be mistaken as a comp. I'd put Felix Hernandez in the same group as Ken Griffey, Jr, but it doesn't mean they're at all alike.

Also, remember I'm not claiming that he will be as good as Moustakas.

by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 2:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice point
As a die-hard Giants fan, I know that Villalona is a better prospect than Triunfel. I want to make a big point that a B+ is way to high, and if John wants it that way, then I insist that Big "V" is an A-.

At first glance, this list was johns best. It still might be, but I consider revising my thought.

by Sabean2009 on Dec 28, 2007 11:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

CTri vs Big V
Insist he's rated as an A-?  I'm all for supporting "your guys", but declaring Big V a better prospect than CTri, as if you're comparing Buchholz to Bowden, seems a little to biased maybe?  It's clear both are at the top of the class when comparing the International Signing crop of 06, but I don't see how you can clearly state that one of them is the superior prospect at this point.  And if you had to choose one, I'd go with Triunfel, as would many others.    

by ftheyankees on Dec 29, 2007 8:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Division
Lots of division on this one.  Jim Callis of BA emphatically prefers Angel V over Triunfel.  I believe Keith Law has said Triunfel is the best prospect in baseball.  I'll take Angel V's bat, but I admit to being biased.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 30, 2007 1:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well keith law must be smoking some good crack
he is nuts to say that, now if Triunfel can hit a HR next year with a good average then possibly he can be a top 15 prospect, but I take young prospects with now power right now with a grain of salt.  

by Bravesin07 on Dec 30, 2007 10:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

young prospects and power...
What about high school juniors who hit over .300 in A ball with wood bats against guys 4-5 years older? Are they any good?  

by ftheyankees on Dec 30, 2007 11:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's obviously more of a natural hitter than
Triunfel, but many, many scouts have been seeing him as a first baseman since before he was drafted. Triunfel's offensive potential is comparable, but unforeseen injury/motivational concerns aside, there's a very real possibility of Triunfel becoming a plus corner defender, as he is athletic enough for it currently. I don't see Villalona stepping up his defense, however I definitely see Triunfel stepping up his offense by a wide margin.

The question at this point is whether you value position over 200 ABs of impressive hitting ability. They're both A- in my book.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 10:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Err...
I know neither of them were "drafted." But you get the point.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 10:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Question on a prospect way off the list
Michael Wilson of Tulsa, OK.

Has proven himself to be unable to hit a breaking pitch? Lots of power potential (former OU LB commit).

Thoughts??

by Oklahawg on Dec 28, 2007 11:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Mad power when he makes contact.
But rarely does. Lots and lots of flaws to extinguish before calling him even a C+ to me.

by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 3:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Balentien
I am always shocked to see him rated so low, as well as consistently hearing his name in trade rumors.  What is the knock on him as his bat looks awesome in the minors.
The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball - http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com

by bheikoop on Dec 29, 2007 11:37 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The knock on him
Is Adam Jones. The M's FO and coaching staff has a thing for proven veterans, and they have flat out stated they won't start 2 "rookies" in the outfield next year (a message to Wlad that he'll be in AAA again). Wlad is MLB-bound and could be there this year, but having him as injury insurance/trade bait at AAA seems to content Seattle until 09. Look for big things out of him again this year as he's no longer playing in AJ's shadow.

by thejew4u on Dec 29, 2007 3:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Both the orgnization and scouts say
He's not ready, even though the numbers this year were a very pleasant surprise. I really don't know if he is or not. He'll certainly take his lumps if he were to be penciled in as a starter on Opening Day on any club.

by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 3:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yankees TJ Returnees
The Yankees have a few high-level guys returning from TJ surgery in 2008, but I don't see any of them on your top 20 list.  Others still seem to be excited by guys like JB Cox, Humberto Sanchez, Mark Melancon and Christian Garcia.  Does the surgery increase the risk so much that you automatically grade lower than a C?

Thanks!

p.s. I'm a newbie, so if I'm asking something that's repetitive, I apologize.

(another) Yankee Fan

by ctyank on Dec 29, 2007 11:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Who's the best to judge?
You are saying John Sickels has no credibility because he rated a guy you don't like higher than a guy you do? That's a really unfortunate choice of language in my opinion. You are perfectly within your right to say you disagree, but to write the man off over the disagreement? I am disheartened by the comments of those who choose to denigrate others rather than discuss the issues.

by JRTwins on Dec 29, 2007 2:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Lowrie is the next Michael Young with a better eye
Don't be shocked wherever he is put up .310 20 100 with a lot of doubles and a good BB/K.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 29, 2007 3:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Young has hit 20+ homers
that's why I'm completed baffled by that comparison, and the SoxProspects Guillen comp. You want to leave a guy at a position where he'd be a butcher?

Let's stick to the CF comparison. I like Ellsbury, but Jones is better.

Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Dec 30, 2007 12:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

agreed totally
Major league experience? Jones >>>> Ellsbury

Minor league numbers? Jones >>>> Ellsbury

Ceiling? is it even close?

age: Jones is 2 years younger.

what exactly does Ellsbury have on Jones is beyond me. of the Sox prospects only Buchholz at A seems very reasonable. Ellsbury and Lowrie are both B+ guys really.

by RollingWave on Dec 30, 2007 4:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hehehe
Oh the irony! I just noticed this.

Michael Young is one of the most overrated players in baseball and the most overrated at his position, and Adam Jones profiles much like Mike Cameron, who was among the most underrated players in his prime and possibly the most underrated player for his position (up your's, Gillick!).

And it shall continue...

by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 3:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think positional value has something do with it
There are a lot of high ceiling OF prospects. But guys who can play 2b/ss and stay there are rare. Hence the extra value.
B+ is still a great grade, and on Johns scale, likely means he will be a star at some point.
Also, insulting someone who allows us to see his rankings here for free, likely is not a good move. And really shows your lack of class and gratitude. And, if you think you can scout better. I suggest you start a blog and see how many people actually care to read it.

by Maxima231 on Dec 29, 2007 5:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I would absolutely love to see
A good, rational argument as to why Adam Jones is ranked lower than Jacoby Ellsbury and Andy LaRoche. It just doesn't seem possible in my eyes.

by elrey34 on Dec 29, 2007 9:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Adam Jones vs. Jed Lowrie
The Mariners top 20 list surprised me. I hadn't really looked at that organization in depth. Probably, better than I've been led to believe it was.  I would also agree with some of the posts here that Adam Jones ceiling is that of an All Star type CF. An A- for me. The kid has all the tools and seems to have quality makeup(humble, hardworking, aggressive, confident). I think he still needs to continue to improve in commanding the strikezone hopefully that comes with good quality at bats... but then again name a ML power hitter who didn't.

I won't pile on in regards to John's opinion of Jed Lowrie.(I'd grade him a solid B myself and I think they are a different class of player ceiling wise). It is his opinion and its good to see someone stick to their guns rather than flip flop.  

I personally, saw Jed Lowrie 1 week this summer and like him but don't think he can stay at shortstop long term which diminishes his value. I don't buy him being an all star at the 3b position at all. I just don't see him as a well above average ML hitter in the future, he lacks the Power, armstrength ideal for that position and as a result a club would always be looking for his replacement.

Lowrie is a player with good instincts an average playable arm, defensively his range is a question mark especially with consistency in making the play in the hole. Average speed(which is a bother to me because the other offensive tools aren't standout type), gap power. My impression of him was he's ok at SS but not the core type you build a championship team with at that position.

 However, if you moved him to 2B you just may have something there as an everyday regular. The problem with the 2B scenario for the Red Sox is that they know that they now have an established fan-favorite type player there with Pedroia which makes Lowrie easily expendable for them. This probably is why we are hearing his name in trade talks so much. Most likely teams haven't asked for him specifically so much as the Red Sox are saying if this closes the deal we'll give you Lowrie as well. Just my take on that.

If John is wrong I'm sure he'll be reminded by some of you here. But, also remember this... he is not doing this anonymously.  As all veteran scouts will tell you... no one is completely right all the time and mistakes are made, but being right most of the time is the goal.  From what I've seen John is correct often and doesn't carry some of the bias that others may have.  Remember writers/reporters always are kinder with organizations who give them inside information.

by dashoreman on Dec 29, 2007 11:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ceilings
I see alot of people saying player X has a higher ceiling he should be ranked higher than player Y.  Lots of guys with huge ceilings never reach them.  Just because a guy has a high ceiling doesn't mean he's a better prospect than a guy with a good ceiling who is alot more likely to reach his full ability.

by GoldenSpikes24 on Dec 30, 2007 12:19 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nonetheless,
it must be dually noted that unspectacular, safe bets do not deserve ratings reserved for the best.

by elrey34 on Dec 30, 2007 2:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

View www.fourthout.com
My top 10, future top 500 SFG prospects

by Sabean2009 on Dec 30, 2007 5:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think it is sad
Your top 10--Sabean2009? I think I like it.

by Ellenlessd123 on Dec 30, 2007 7:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Saunders
Saunders I also think is closer to a B-, maybe even a B.  Yeah, I know, it was the Cally league.  Granted.  But IMO, even if you knock his numbers down a few notches they were pretty good.  He didn't turn 21 until well after the season, so as a 20 year to succeed in High-A is not bad. Looking at his career (excluding small sample from AA), his BB rate has stayed constant and pretty good for a player his age I might add.  On top of that, he's struck out less per PA every season.  Last year wasn't a huge jump up, but it was an improvement.  Maybe some of the power he showed last year was generated by the league, but he's a big kid (6-4) and as mentioned very young, so I don't have huge doubts about his power 2-3 years from now.

In the end, he's got the tools (size, speed), he's showing improvement, he's played well and he's done so at levels he was either young for or on target for.  AA is one of the biggest jumps, and he K's enough that I think you'll see an average drop but if he can maintain the walks, and keep his ISO up (out of hitter friendly league but another year older), I think he could have a good year.  

A good player for comparison, IMO, is Carlos Gonalez.  In 2006 at almost the exact same age (2 weeks diff) he hit .300-.355-.562 in the cally league w/ the same K rate but almost 1/2 the BB rate as Saunders.  So Saunders hit .299-.392-.473.  I don't think the difference is so severe as to rate one a B+ and the other a C+ (but heh, maybe Gonzalez was overrated).  Their OPS diff wasn't as big as it seems anyway b/c OPS underrates OBP.  Plus, if you give me 2 guys at 20 years old, one who can't walk, and the other who has less power (but is 6-4, 205), I'd say its more likely that the big kid will develop power as he ages than it is that the other guy will start to learn to take walks.

So yeah, Gonzalez' numbers dropped in AA.  As expected.  But given Saunders' eye, and his size and speed, I see him as a real breakout candidate if not in 2008 than in 2009.  

by jayjay on Dec 31, 2007 6:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Keep in mind
that this isn't just the Cal league. High Desert is the most severe hitter's park in baseball, and it could very well possibly be the most of all time or ever will be. Ten total runs per game is considered a very low score there. Fifteen to 20 is considered the norm, so don't just knock Saunders' stats a few notches. Knock them down several. You're right that he's pretty toolsy and he definitely could be a dark horse next season, but I can't call myself overly excited to track him right now. The numbers to Carlos Gonzalez may look similar, but I assure you that Saunders is by far the lesser prospect. I'd go B- tops.

by elrey34 on Jan 1, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Possibly ...
Yeah, HD is a big hitters park.  No question.  My point is just that for his age, even if you knocked the numbers down I'm impressed.  And as for Gonzalez, better prospect?  No question, I agree as well. But, don't forget that the numbers I'm using as a comparison were from Lancaster, which is as hitter friendly as HD is.

by jayjay on Jan 1, 2008 9:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Saunders' splits
Home: 0.322/0.429/0.497
Road: 0.286/0.364/0.462

The difference isn't quite as severe as you might think.  As a team they have a .150 point difference between home and road splits, but Saunders only had a .101 point difference.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/

by JY on Jan 1, 2008 11:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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