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Grade C

Grade C Prospects

I'm going to try and explain what the grades mean here with some examples. First, the definition of a Grade C prospect:
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
OK, now some examples.

Cesar Ramos, LHP, San Diego Padres
Bats: L     Throws: L     HT: 6-2    WT: 190     DOB: June 22, 1984

A finesse lefty, Ramos passed the Double-A test last year, winning 13 games in the Texas League and ranking third in the league ERA hunt. His fastball is average in the 87-89 range, but he mixes with a slider and changeup. All his pitches are average, but his location is sharp, and he is fearless on the mound. Although I am pleased with his overall performance in the Texas League, I still don't like his K/IP ratio, and he doesn't get enough ground balls to compensate for that. Homers will be a problem as he continues to move up, unless he improves his command from very good to perfect. Grade C.

Ramos is a Grade C because he's shown major league potential and had a good year in Double-A, but there are red flags in his statistics that keep him out of the elite category in my mind. Other analysts seem to like him better than I do.

Danny Rams, C, Minnesota Twins
Bats: R    Throws: R     HT: 6-2     WT: 205    DOB: December 19, 1988

Minnesota drafted Danny Rams in the second round last June, out of high school in Florida. He is supposed to have excellent power, but he sure didn't show it in rookie ball. His strike zone judgment is quite poor, and even his supporters admit that he has to refine his swing and his approach at the plate. He has a good arm, but his defense is mediocre at best, due to lack of mobility and athleticism, and many scouts believe he'll end up at first base eventually. I don't want to overreact to a 27 game sample size in rookie ball, but Rams clearly has a lot of work ahead. I doubt he will advance quickly. Grade C.

Rams is a Grade C because scouts like him enough that he was drafted in the second round, and he looks like he should hit for power, but he hasn't done it yet. His statistical set is small, and he is a LONG way from the majors.

Clay Rapada, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Bats: R     Throws: L     HT: 6-5    WT: 180   DOB: March 9, 1981

The Tigers picked up Clay Rapada late last summer, from the Cubs, in exchange for Craig Monroe. He has little left to prove in the minors, and will have a shot at a LOOGY job in the Detroit pen in '08. Rapada has an average fastball, but an effective breaking ball. His command can waiver at times, but he has a deceptive delivery that's tough on lefties. Although he's closed in the minors, I doubt he'll pick up many saves in the majors. Grade C.

Rapada is close to the majors, but is a Grade C because he projects as a useful role pitcher but will likely not take a large role.

These three guys have different profiles, but you can see they fit the definition of a Grade C prospect: a guy who has something going for him and has a chance to reach the majors, but without any big indications (yet anyway) that they are going to be a star or even a regular. The Grade C is short-hand for "has a chance, but there is enough doubt that we can't project big success at this time." It also emphasizes that you have to read the comment to get the full picture on the player.

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Welcome back
but be honest, if Ram was on the Red Sox he'd be a grade A, right?  You and your anti-Twin bias ;)

(note to all without senses of humor - this comment is not meant seriously)

by Locke000 on Dec 19, 2007 1:11 PM EST reply actions  

Question
I really appreciate the examples. I've thought I understood your grading system for a couple years, but with examples, its a bit different than I thought. I don't want to get you further behind on the book, so a discussion on this might have to wait  until you're done with this years book. But about grade C prospects:

A quick look through last years book, and I didn't see anybody with a C-. Is a "C" where you draw the line in terms of considering someone a "prospect" or not?

by The Origenist on Dec 19, 2007 1:28 PM EST reply actions  

I believe
that Georgia Tech pitcher with the brutal control, Jason Neighborgall, got a C- last year or the year before.

by Flynn Blake on Dec 19, 2007 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes
To my knowledge, anyone deemed lower than a C means that they won't make the majors and therefore aren't "prospects."  There are also a few players whom John just doesn't feel comfortable assigning a grade (a majority of the international signings).
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Dec 19, 2007 2:04 PM EST up reply actions  

analogous to......
So a typical grade C guy would be analogous to generally projecting as replacement level player?

Or to put it another way, a player who is graded a C has no real trade value as most every system has one like him?

by jojo on Dec 19, 2007 2:35 PM EST reply actions  

I think...
that's true if the player is in AAA.  If however, he's in short-season, then it's much more volatile - he could be something, even something good in the future, but right now he's nothing.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Dec 19, 2007 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

right
Mckeeno is exactly right.

Grade C in Triple-A: Role Player/replacement level.
Grade C in rookie ball: Could be good, too early to say.

by John Sickels on Dec 19, 2007 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

thanks guys
I appreciate your comments.

by jojo on Dec 19, 2007 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Not always useless for trade... and the C- Grade
John's system simply doesn't allow for this level of generalization. As he says, a few Grade C's could develop into stars... those guys are usually the toolsy type who have high upside but not a great chance of reaching it, but then they suddenly "get it" (either develop a new pitch that makes all their other offerings better, or figure out strike zone judgment, or just learn about baseball). In the 2000 version of John's Minor League Scouting Notebook, you will find Kyle Lohse, Mark Redman and JC Romero graded as C, and they have all had somewhat better careers than that grade would suggest. Justin Morneau (AL MVP 2006 as you know) was a C+ in the same book. A sample comment is the one on Redman, who was 26 and had just reached the majors: "He can be quite effective when confident and hitting his spots, but he must prove he can survive emotionally in the big leagues". Redman has had a decent run as a #3-4 starter, averaging more than 30 starts per season for 5 years from 2002-2006... you would not find that with many Grade C guys, but John also says pitchers are less predictable than hitters. Without doing the research, I would bet that many fewer Grade C hitters ever become everyday hitters in the majors, compared to Grade C starters who get regular rotation spots and Grade C relievers who become setup men or even closers. One example of the excellent regular who got a C grade in the 2000 book is Carl Crawford... the comment in the book includes "raw... high ceiling... lack of baseball experience... Rrookie-level...". He is the poster boy for those toolsy, inexperienced types who learn about baseball. Lots of others never do.

Regarding the use f C- grades: The 2000 book has tons of C- grades in it, the 2003 book has fewer, the 2006 book had exactly two (one being the aforementioned Neighborgall), and in 2007 there were none. It appears John has phased out the use of this grade, perhaps because of the difficulty in separating the guys at this level (sorta like deciding which guy is #41 and which is #42 on the Twins' depth chart... does it really matter?).

by JRTwins on Dec 19, 2007 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Excellent selection
I like the player you chose to represent C grades, especially Rams and Rapada. Rapada IMO will be on big league squads for several years, yet probably will never be a all star and will have to sign his fair share of minor league deals. Rams may never make it out of rookie ball, but the flip side to his future is he may finally be the one to push Mauer out from behind the plate (this may be saying more about Joe's health in five years than Danny's catching ability).  Two very different players, yet both very deserving of the grade you gave them.
The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Dec 19, 2007 4:43 PM EST reply actions  

Typo
In the Rapada write-up, I think you mean "waver" not "waiver."

Just doing my little part to try to get the BPB shipped on time!  :-)

by Yakker on Dec 19, 2007 6:02 PM EST reply actions  

Possible Suggestion for Increased Explanation
Giving current example of prospects is a good idea, but so too would giving an old example.  Say a B- example from 2000 or 2001.  Not showing whether you were 'right' or 'wrong', but as a basis as to how to compare the players year to year.  I think if those who are struggling with understanding the ratings could see how, say Fausto Carmona was ranked before his call ups, they may understand that a C+ grade isn't always a bad thing.

I think Fausto is an excellent example of what a C or C+ grade represents.  I see it a lot of times as the borderline ball player.  Either the player who has some electric stuff or tools or has been beating around in the minors for quite some time but can still be considered replacement level.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball - http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com

by bheikoop on Dec 19, 2007 6:18 PM EST reply actions  

Brad Suttle
Given your explanation for a "C" player, how does Suttle warrant a "B-"?  Did you see his HWL performance - it was absolutely brutal.

by Scott Proctor Fan Club on Dec 19, 2007 10:54 PM EST reply actions  

Well...
when you give a no talent player like Jed Lowrie an A- it kind of screws the curve up

by deltabourne on Dec 20, 2007 7:40 PM EST up reply actions  

just be thankful
that John doesnt grade the people who post on his website.

by alskor on Dec 20, 2007 10:49 PM EST up reply actions  

heh
Cubsfan2883 F... First ever of it's kind on this site.

That said, it's his livelihood, the fantastic thing is I follow prospects for shits and giggles.  I call them like I see them same thing he does, only he has more resources at his fingertips than I do, I mean he's got a minor league team right there in Kansas City, you cannot beat that.

by cubsfan2883 on Dec 23, 2007 1:08 AM EST up reply actions  

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