Notable Grade Changes
Looking over some of the more controverial grades, here are my thoughts.
Jed Lowrie: everyone thinks I'm overrating him at A-. I can see a drop to B+ logically. HOWEVER, my instincts are screaming "leave him at A-," and right now I'm inclined to play intuition on this one and stick to my guns.
Austin Jackson: B- is a notch to low. Have changed him to B.
Todd Frazier: B+ was a notch too high. Have changed him to B.
Alan Horne: No change yet. Will probably stay at Grade B.
Chris Lubanski: will probably drop to C+.
John Mayberry: dropping from B to B-.
0 recs |
64 comments
Comments
lowrie
i've moved lowrie up on my own list following from some of the resulting discussion. Just Hit, as i like to say. i think he might have it.
i'm just irritated because i drafted him in the 14th round of my original keeper draft back before 06, but then dropped him in like july after holding on to him all year, even though he was doing squat divided by three, because i thought he had to be better than that. then a week later somebody else picked him up. then another week after that all of a sudden all the prospect sites were like "oh by the way jed lowrie's been playing with a high ankle sprain all year." thanks guys.
by wily mo on Dec 17, 2007 12:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
"following from"?
by wily mo on Dec 17, 2007 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Kudos for sticking with your gut.
by SmokeyJoeWood on Dec 19, 2007 9:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Frazier
I'm an RU alum, so I want him to do well, but after the unrequited hype that surrounded Bobby Brownlie, Val Majewski and the elder Frazier brother I'd prefer to temper expectations.
So far, all we have to show for RU's nice run in the late '90's/early 00's is David DeJesus and Jason Bergmann. I personally go a little farther back and can claim Eric Young Sr was in my economics class.
by kings33 on Dec 17, 2007 12:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
So can we expect Jackson
by Roo on Dec 17, 2007 12:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And my guy on Lowrie
by Roo on Dec 17, 2007 12:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
2010?!?
by Valentine on Dec 17, 2007 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo
2009 is the first time he is even going to get a serious look.
by Roo on Dec 17, 2007 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo
If Lugo plays even half-way decently he can be traded.
Lowrie's first exposure may be as an injury replacement mid-season or as a September callup, but he'll get at least 100 bats by the end of the year. What happens next depends on how he performs.
by Valentine on Dec 17, 2007 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what's he going to do with 100 bats?
by wily mo on Dec 17, 2007 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not cool
by achengy on Dec 17, 2007 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Seriously dude
by RVachon on Dec 17, 2007 1:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You're obviously smarter
by t ball on Dec 17, 2007 1:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good calls all around
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Dec 17, 2007 1:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ive known Austin personally
Im probably as neutral of a Yankee-Redsox fan as there is, mainly because I love cheering for people who do everything they can to win.
by Roo on Dec 17, 2007 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lowrie vs Pedroia
Comparing Pedroia's 2005 vs Lowrie's 2007;
Statistically, assuming they have smililar scouting reports and were the same age, you'd probably rate them a wash. They played at the same level (actually, Pedroia had more AAA at bats), they hit the same amount of bombs, Lowrie had 24 more EBH, and Pedroia had 48 less K's. Sounds like a wash. Problem is, Pedroia was younger, by a non isignificant one year and eight months. Heading into 2006, you rated Pedroia a B+.
Now, you might be trigger happy because you think that you had Pedroia underrated. Well, I agree somewhat. Problem is, you had Pedroia underrated the next year. You rated him a B heading into 2007, which was probably a notch too low. The perception was that Pedroia had a bad year, but I disagree. There were two main differences in Pedroia's 2005 and 2006. First, he hit way less HR, down to 5 from 13. For that, he was able to lower his K rate from 8.1% to 5.4%. His 2b/3b rate actually increased slightly and offset the slight decrease in his walk rate. Overall, that statistical line is a litte worse, but that is offset by the fact that he's a year closer to the show. Pedroia probably should have been a B+ heading into last season.
As for Lowrie, being nearly two years older and whiffing 94% more often is not made up for with a few extra 2b/3b. The scouting reports are almost identical, and Arizona State has much better looking women than Stanford. Based on all of that, I would rate 2006 Pedroia one level higher than 2008 Lowrie. I highly doubt anybody thinks 2006 Pedroia was a straight A prospect, and I'd really struggle to give him an A-. IMO, Lowrie should be rated a straight B.
by rwperu34 on Dec 17, 2007 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on one point
Is he really a better prospect than Hu? Personally, I like Hu as a prospect more because he'll play an excellent SS. I will also defer to John as far as prospect knowledge is concerned, so maybe he knows something intuitively that most of us don't....
by jc3 on Dec 17, 2007 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
While I agree
If Lugo was removed from the Red Sox roster tomorrow, who would play short? My money would be on Lowrie, not Pedroia. Lowrie is also an accomplished switch hitter, which makes him an asset anyway you look at it. Also, excuse the gross comparison here, but, is Derek Jeter any less of a good hitter because he averages 114 K's per 162 game season? IMO, if you're not Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard with your strikeouts they're really not a terribly big deal.
All I'm saying is that Lowrie should get a couple bonus points when you're comparing the two.
by ajake57 on Dec 17, 2007 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jeez
"Here are my Grade for BA related talent evaluators
Extremely Preliminary - Subject to Change.
Chris Kline - F
Jim Callis - M
John Sickles - ML
F - Fair
M - Moron
L - Loser" (B/c of Jed Lowrie be graded higher than Austin Jackson
"When did a typo became "irony" moron?
Eff Lowerie or Lowrie of which ever that effing losers' name is spelled he is still a mfing POS compared to Kennedy. "
"Ask the m'fing Twins if they had a choice.....
....of effing POS Lowerie or Kennedy, who they would want."
"Only a Moron would rank Lowerie ahead of Kennedy
Lowerie (A-) didn't sniff Top-50 list of MiLB. Kennedy (B+) was ranked #26."
I sure hope you enjoy your new board, wherever that is, man...
by alskor on Dec 17, 2007 2:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oh
;)
by alskor on Dec 17, 2007 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Twins needs
Phil Hughes is the best of the names that has come up, however. Two A- prospects don't necessarily equal one A prospect.
by Valentine on Dec 17, 2007 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My comments
Id probably take the Hughes deal
by alskor on Dec 17, 2007 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
Mods, can we get working on this guy?
by Jgaztambide on Dec 17, 2007 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
- John is a Twins fan who happens to like Lowrie a lot
- Would you like every site to put out the same exact list so everyone can say "oh good, we all had the same #47 prospect!"? Baseball America loves tools, Baseball Prospectus loves their stats, and John has a blend of the two. They'll each have a different perspective, from which you can draw your own conclusions
- I personally don't like Kennedy too much, but if you think it's so black and white that one would have to be a "Moron / Loser" to make that argument, I encourage you to make that argument in a civil, respectful manner
- The whole "everyone else is saying this" argument is really a tough way to prove your point. I haven't seen you on the site before, so I'll assume you're new. Around here, to be taken seriously, you need to prove your own point. Bring some stats, find some scouting reports, use your "gut feel" to whatever extent you feel it is necessary. Tell us why a middle infielder who puts up a .900 OPS in the high minors without batting-average inflated stats is bad. Explain how a 13% walk rate from a SS is bad, and how 67 extra base hits from middle infield somehow turns into a negative.
Just some thoughts...
by Jgaztambide on Dec 17, 2007 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wieters
If you have a beef with me, fine, but keep your facts straight, don't lie, and don't insult other posters. Calling people morons is going to get you tagged as a troll pretty soon. Debate is great...childish insults aren't.
by John Sickels on Dec 17, 2007 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What are you waiting for?
by Flynn Blake on Dec 17, 2007 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
And why is that fantasy recruiting thread still there?
Are the mods on holiday? Drunk on egg nog?
by AucklandGM on Dec 17, 2007 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Still in transition
by Brickhaus on Dec 17, 2007 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
banning people
Joba was only banned after months and months of being a pest. furthermore, i think he was banned because he was INTENTIONALLY disruptive -- he made that his sole purpose, and created alter egos to communicate with himself.
now, Joba is being "re-banned" quickly because.....he was already banned. and he just keeps coming back to do the same thing.
i don't think the precedent on this board has ever been to quickly delete accounts, even if someone's behavior is very antisocial. don't get me wrong -- i think every single one of Taz's comments are out of line. but it's not like doing what he's done normally gets you booted, and i'm not sure we'd want to start doing that now. beyond that, i don't think it's fair to compare to Joba.
by bleedjaxblue on Dec 17, 2007 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
taz
Taz came in here today and threw some insults around, most directed at me, but maybe he's just having a bad day. Maybe he is just an example of a particularly immature Yankees fan.
If he continues to insult other posters, then I will declare him a troll and delete him.
by John Sickels on Dec 17, 2007 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok taz
and taz sounds like da yaz...just sayin'...
by bobbymcnally on Dec 17, 2007 9:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
John
And, yes, I presume I'll see joeficara on here within the hour spouting drivel...
Just shut him down.
Joe
by joeficarra on Dec 17, 2007 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
troll
by John Sickels on Dec 17, 2007 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks...
I know I'm not the reason, but I appreciate both of your efforts on this site...and I should be giving more back...
Joe
by joeficarra on Dec 17, 2007 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
pardon me
A good friend who runs a tremendously successful website tells me that an increased level of trolldom is a good sign...it means your website is successful enough to lure out the lunatics. I guess I didn't understand exactly how many lunatics are out there.
It takes all kinds I guess...apparently there are people who find emotional satisfaction (and probably sexual satisfaction) in disrupting a website about minor league baseball. Wish they'd just find a sock and some lotion, go hide in the basement, and leave us alone to study our prospects in peace.
by John Sickels on Dec 17, 2007 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand it either
And, yes, I am personally in "old, bitter man mode" tonight...
If I can take the time to respond to someone with my personal name on the response, then I am serious about it, and it means something. Too many people "seem" to be hiding behind their screen-names.
Ultimately, at the end of the day, if you don't have either the intellectual capability, or the emotional maturity, to put your real name on any public statement, then you are meaningless. And that seems to be something our society hasn't completely figured out yet...
Joe
by joeficarra on Dec 17, 2007 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
real names
by sabernar on Dec 18, 2007 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
screw u
by bobbymcnally on Dec 17, 2007 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
SORRY!
by bobbymcnally on Dec 17, 2007 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok
by bobbymcnally on Dec 17, 2007 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This troll crap
by goalieguy on Dec 17, 2007 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i am no troll!
by bobbymcnally on Dec 17, 2007 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
haha
by bobbymcnally on Dec 17, 2007 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bobby
by goalieguy on Dec 17, 2007 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
np
by bobbymcnally on Dec 18, 2007 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
I don't believe Wieters has been ranked as of now, so I don't know where your comment came from
In terms of Porcello being ranked above Lowrie, I think there are some very convincing reasons for it. Any time you have a highschool arm who has not thrown a single pitch in professional baseball, the risk factor is so overwhelming that it's not worth placing them high on prospect lists
In the end, it depends on how your "grading system" actually works. Baseball America's grading system is basically "here are the highest ceilings, with a very small emphasis on their actual performance or likelihood of reaching said ceiling"
If you think of prospect rankings as an investment, you would see the folly of this as a method of ranking prospects. That would be like JP Morgan ranking a bunch of Penny Stocks as "Must buys" simply because they could triple in value overnight. This does nothing to take into account the risk factor of those investments. This is what happens when Risk is not an element of your evaluation. Does Porcello have an extremely high upside? Sure he does. Does he have a lot of hurdles to clear before he comes close to achieving that upside, including developing his pitches, consistency, a longer season, and the dreaded "injury Nexus"? he sure as heck does
Lowrie, on the other hand, has very little risk attached to him, much like Pedroia before him (and Ellsbury currently). He has performed very well in the high minors, with good walk rates, decent K rates, good EBH rates, and (according to some) the ability to stay at SS. There should be very little doubt that Lowrie will contribute value to a team in the very near future from a middle infield position. That doubt certainly exists for Porcello, simply because he's an 18-year old pitcher...
by Jgaztambide on Dec 17, 2007 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lowrie's risk/upside
His DT MLEs for 2007
AA .259/.364/.441, .278 EQA
AAA .278/.328/.488, .273 EQA
Some comps if he can repeat that in the majors might be Dan Uggla, Robinson Cano, and Michael Young (2007 version of each). If he can take one more step forward in 2008, improving that OBP while holding his gains in SLG, then we're looking at comps of Edgar Renteria and Carlos Guillen (2007 version).
Finished product after only 130 games split between AA and AAA? Seems unlikely. I know he's not the youngest prospect on the planet, but experience matters as well as age and he has only 2 1/2 professional seasons under his belt.
by Valentine on Dec 17, 2007 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed to a point...
Lowrie's splits between AA and AAA are very interesting, because there was a clear drop in his BB with an increase in his K, but there was also a very clear increase in his power production on the opposite end.
It seems pretty clear that he had a different approach at the plate when he moved up. In one league he showed the ability to hit for decent average to go along with very good plate discipline and pretty good power. In another league he sacrificed the discipline for increased power. Did one league surprise him with how often they threw strikes?
Anyways, I don't want to get into this too much. he's not a finished product, but he's had success in the high minors. He's certainly a better bet to reach the majors than Porcello is, and that was my original point
by Jgaztambide on Dec 17, 2007 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
While I agree with most of what you said
What I'd like to see from Lowrie is production at the ML level. That's really all he's got left to prove.
My grade would be a B+, My grade for Kennedy would also be a B+. I'd rate them equally but if I had to rank them in order, Kennedy would be above Lowrie in my opinion.
by cubsfan2883 on Dec 17, 2007 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Carter
by robertgold on Dec 17, 2007 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
So...
I'd have kept Frazier at B+, and might have dropped Horne to B-. Frazier won't stick long-term at SS, but he can play there now. His athleticism should make him a very good defensive 3B. Real nice plate discipline and power. I say B+.
But, its your list and the difference between B and B+ isn't really that much.
by TheBlues on Dec 17, 2007 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
relax man
by mroak89 on Dec 17, 2007 4:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lowrie vs. Pedroia
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 17, 2007 5:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pedroia
Looking at 1998, even if Pedroia were to replicate his 2007 season for the next five years, he still would have ranked as about the 13th-18th most valuable player to come from that group.
by rwperu34 on Dec 17, 2007 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Dec 17, 2007 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactamundo
by rwperu34 on Dec 17, 2007 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
re: lesson
I think you mean low ceiling-high floor. Right?
As for Pedroia, I'd take him on my team in a second. But I'm not sure he would have had the same offensive production he outputted in 2007 for a different team. He benefits from Fenway more than most. Kind of like John Valentin and Jody Reed did. Look at the home/road splits.
by McLovin on Dec 17, 2007 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A-Jax to B
Methinks he may even be a B+...
by Dfarth on Dec 17, 2007 6:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Funny
Anyway, I never really understood why some fans get upset if they feel a prospect from their team is underrated or a prospect from another team is overrated in comparison. Either the prospect does better than expected - in which case your team enjoys the benefit - or the rating ultimately proved correct. What is there to get so bent out of shape about?
by Scott Proctor Fan Club on Dec 18, 2007 12:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Another thing...
If John, who has a long and impressive resume in evaluating prospects, wants to give a guy like Lowrie a half a letter grade boost b/c he has a feeling about him... well, that's legit. Its his website and he's been right on things like that a hundred time.
Reminds of Jimy Williams, who had the same response whenever he was asked about in game strategy, lineup construction, etc... "Manager's decision." Period. Projecting players is an inexact process to begin with...
(Beyond that, John has given some pretty good reasons to support his feelings about Lowrie)
by alskor on Dec 18, 2007 1:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs










