Dodgers sign Kuroda

by npurcell on Dec 15, 2007 5:34 PM EST Comment 43 comments

http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/archives/2007/12/kuroda_agrees_t.html

The deal is pending results of a physical examination, which Kuroda took this morning at Centinela Hospital, but it's done and believed to be worth between $36 million to $40 millon.

Kuroda's ZIPS projections:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/dodgers_reportedly_signed_kuroda/

180IP ERA+ 115
176IP ERA+ 112
172IP ERA+ 105

Next year's rotation looks to be something like this

Penny
Lowe
Billingsley
Kuroda
Schmidt

With Loaiza as the 6th man and long man in the bullpen.

Dodgers also have reinforcements with most likely Jon Meloan (good chance being moved back to starter), James McDonald, Scott Elbert and Clayton Kershaw in that order.

If that isn't enough depth for Colletti, then he is most likely a troll; a troll that lives under a bridge that hordes everything

There seems to be an arms race in the NL West...I could see the Rockies going hard after Bedard actually.

0 recs | Comment 43 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Looks good now

But frankly I understand the need for depth. There are a lot of question marks there, especially when you talk about health-wise. Lowe should be good, but you've got to wonder if Penny is going to break down in the 2nd half. There's no reason to expect anything to great stuff from Bills, except a lot of 2nd year pitchers tend to regress a bit for whatever reason. Kuroda's projections look good, but he's definitely not a sure thing, and Schmidt... well, if he doesn't get hurt next year I'll eat my hat. (No, seriously, I will. It's made of chocolate!)

But it's looking like the West will be another fun race in 2008.

by mraver on Dec 15, 2007 5:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You have a chocolate hat?

Must make for a messy summer.

by grover on Dec 15, 2007 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Any scouting report on Kuroda?

Is he Matsuzaka-type power pitcher or Ishii-type junk pitcher?

by shakezula on Dec 15, 2007 6:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kuroda vs. Godzilla

http://youtube.com/watch?v=cekkzbHot_I

by Sox Puppet on Dec 15, 2007 7:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here's a more recent one:

2007:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=WAq8Jfx0rYo&feature=related

Just happened to be watching both at the same time and he threw one 146 km/h and 146 km/h in the other. Watched a little more and he was consistently in that range.

by Sox Puppet on Dec 15, 2007 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

for those like me

who know nothing of the metric system (and had to find a converter) thats slightly above 90mph.

by Terry Ryan Jr on Dec 15, 2007 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HOLY MOTHER OF...

140 miles an...oh wait, that's KM. ;-)

by Yakker on Dec 15, 2007 9:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He was tutored by

Sidd Finch...

by The Colonel on Dec 15, 2007 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

link

That was a great battle, and - despite Matsui losing eventually - a very good at-bat by Matsui.

by BobbyMac on Dec 16, 2007 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so wait, guys....

how does this affect the Dodgers plans to immediately trade away Matt Kemp for a pitcher? or a bag of microwaveable popcorn?

or has that trade already happened, and i missed it?

i mean, you can't tell me they're really not trading Matt Kemp, right? right? am i right? guys?

i mean, EVERYONE knows what Ned Colletti theoretically does with prospects, if he'd ever actually done it. right?

by bleedjaxblue on Dec 15, 2007 7:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kemp

Once Andruw Jones was signed, Kemp was as good as gone. This affects nothing. He'll be packing his bags any day now.

Right?

by count sutton on Dec 15, 2007 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bags?

the second Kemp was promoted to the big club, Colletti told him not to bother purchasing any worldly possessions before he was 29, since he'd just have to pack them anyway. Kemp only owns a toothbrush, a change of boxers and an iPod nano, because that's all he can fit in his pockets.

the only reason Colletti even brings the prospects he hates so much around with him is because he doesn't want to buy extra plane tickets when he does trade them, and he's hoping he can just drop them off in whatever city the team's chartered plane is going.

seriously, though -- is there anyone who, without irony, thinks they can turn this diary into a reason why the Dodgers will trade three of their young stars to your favorite team? just curious. because i figured it would've happened already.

by bleedjaxblue on Dec 15, 2007 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice Move

Nice move by Colletti. Don't go ordering your WS tickets just yet, Dodger fans. From the videos, this guy looks like he could be closer to Kei Igawa than Dice-K.

Oh, and Jason Schmidt is done.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 15, 2007 11:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

responses

don't think anyway was planning on buying WS tickets, or thought this changed much about the team from before.

agreed about the analysis -- an even less impressive looking video than i was expecting.

and, yeah -- Schmidt's done.

but this obviously has to be better than before he signed, when you suggested the Dodgers would be fatally crippled by their lack of a fifth starter.

by bleedjaxblue on Dec 16, 2007 1:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Still Might Be

I'd say Kuroda and Schmidt are weak reeds to lean on.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 16, 2007 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so can you make me a list...

....on teams with titanium-strong "reeds to lean on" as fifth starters? are there a lot of them now?

by bleedjaxblue on Dec 16, 2007 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

#5?

So, Kuroda and Schmidt are both #5 starter? Who's #4?

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 16, 2007 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok...

so you prefer to dodge the question....

care to answer, then, who the teams are who are significantly more likely to get production from their 4th and 5th starters than the Dodgers are, with some combination of Schmidt, Kuroda, Loaiza, Houlton, Meloan, Kershaw, Elbert and Kuo?

by bleedjaxblue on Dec 16, 2007 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Better Production?

Well, if Kuroda is more Kei Igawa than Dice K and Schmidt is done, then I'd say probably about 26 out of the 30 teams in MLB! Loaiza is done too. No way Houlton is even a #5 for a full year. Kuo ain't going to stay healthy, period. Kershaw and Elbert aren't anywhere close to ready. Meloan? Don't know too much about him, but I'm skeptical.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 16, 2007 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

26 of 30, huh?

you want to start with 5? then we'll get to discussing your "26 of 30."

just name 'em for me -- list the back of their rotations. tell me how why those pitchers are going to be much more productive, and why their aren't any question-marks around them.

seriously.

just do it.

it'll be fun for both of us.

i'll even save you time and spot you the Red Sox. we both agree -- even if it weren't for the differences in offense, the Red Sox pitching, from top to bottom, is better than the Dodgers'. good thing they're not in the same league or anything, making the comparison irrelevant in terms of likelihood of "getting away" with that rotation.

by bleedjaxblue on Dec 16, 2007 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

heh

if he goes to Dodgerthoughts.com, theres a cheat sheet for him.

by npurcell on Dec 16, 2007 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL!

Oh man! I'm holding my side! That was sure good for a laugh! Do you think, just maybe, whoever wrote up that ranking on dodgerthoughts.com had a pair of blue tinted glasses on when he came up with that bellywhopper?

Let's see, the Giants have 2 above average starter, and 3 more average-above average with an up-and-comer and get 12 points. The Dodgers have 3 above average(a dubious ranking if you ask me, but OK), 2 mystery meats, and several "up and comers," and they somehow get 13 points?

OK. Just for starters, McDonald, Kershaw and Elbert, while they may be "up-and-comers" are nowhere near ready to pitch in the majors, unless, of course, you want them to go the way of Edwin Jackson.

In addition, there is no way that 3 above average starters plus nothing is better than 2 above average plus 3 more avarage-above average starters. Dude needs to go back to the drawing board on how he weights his points there.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 17, 2007 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nothing

look, a degree of skepticism of kuroda is warranted, but to anoint him as "nothing" is just as premature as counting on him as solid. "matsuzaka" and "kei igawa" are not the only two possible outcomes for japanese pitchers, any more than "jake peavy" and "dewon brazelton" are the only two possible outcomes for american pitchers. kuroda is a separate individual who pitches in a style distinct from either matsuzaka or igawa, despite looking sort of similar to them ethnically-wise.

by wily mo on Dec 17, 2007 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kuroda

Yes. Kuroda is very difficult to project. He may be Hideo Nomo reincarnate, or he may be Kei Igawa, or he may be anything in between. Just looking at his Japanese numbers plus the video's, I have to say I'm glad the Giants didn't spend money on him.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 17, 2007 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

response

Just looking at his Japanese numbers plus the video's, I have to say I'm glad the Giants didn't spend money on him.

Logan White:

"He has a very good delivery, an easy arm motion. He throws from a three-quarters angle. He runs his fastball anywhere from 89-95 miles per hour and stays around 93. He has a slider/cutter at 89 that has a lot of sharp, crisp bite. His out pitch is what he calls a forkball that has real diving, late action at the right-handed hitter.

"I put my reputation on the guy," said White. "He's legit."

So we have two vastly different opinions with the person who is known as a pitching/drafting guru thinking the polar opposite of a fan...

Not implying anything, just thought it was odd.

by npurcell on Dec 17, 2007 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Non blue tinted article

With the acquisition of Hiroki Kuroda, the Los Angeles Dodgers have purchased a gem. The 32-year-old right-hander is a real no-nonsense player with a top-notch track record.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove07/columns/story?id=3158054

by npurcell on Dec 17, 2007 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Track Record

Just out of curiosity, what does as career 3.69 or whatever ERA in Japan project to in the USA? Any ZIPS conversions for that?

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 17, 2007 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

actually...

ZIPS and CHONE projections like Kuroda.

ZIPS

3.92 ERA+ 115
4.04 ERA+ 112
4.29 ERA+ 102

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/dodgers_reportedly_signed_kuroda/

CHONE
http://eastwindupchronicle.com/?p=684

179IP 3.97ERA

by npurcell on Dec 17, 2007 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CHONE

The previous CHONE was for neutral park. for Dodger Stadium it's at

Kuroda: 181 IP, 174H, 49bb 137k 21hr 3.78 ERA

by npurcell on Dec 18, 2007 2:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

That equates to a 6.8 K/9 and a 2.8 K/BB. Seems a little low for the ERA, doesn't it?

Perhaps CHONE thinks he'll have a low BABIP as hitters adjust to his delivery. Regardless, he should be just fine as LA's #4.

by Yakker on Dec 18, 2007 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

GB pitchers

Scoutings and articles implied Kuroda is a gb pitcher.

I went through the box scores of his 2077 season and calculated his Groundout/Flyout ratio was 2.25:1.

They didn't have specifics on hits in play so I couldn't calculate groundball ratios.

So I think being a gb pitcher also has something to do with the nice ZIPS and CHONE projections.

by npurcell on Dec 18, 2007 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cool

Makes sense. Although depending on how he gets those GBs, Dodger Stadium may not be the best place for him, since it inflates HRs.

He's also probably not too thrilled that it looks like Kent's coming back next year.

by Yakker on Dec 19, 2007 2:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

NL West?

Well, I don't have the time or inclination to comb through the starting 5 for all 30 teams. Off the top of my head, for starters, I'd say that all 4 of the Dodgers NL West rivals have much more solid rotations top to bottom. Of course the Giants have other problems, but the Dodgers will be very hard pressed to keep up with the Rocks, D'Backs and Pads rotations.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 16, 2007 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

NL West

Rockies
Jeff Francis
Aaron Cook
Franklin Morales
Ubaldo Jimenez
Jason Hirsh

Giants
Matt Cain
Tim Lincecum
Barry Zito
Noah Lowry
Jonathan Sanchez???? (I dont even know)

Padres
Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Greg Maddux
Randy Wolf
Justin Germano

Dbacks
Brandon Webb
Dan Haren
Randy Johnson
Doug Davis
Micah Ownings

Dodgers
Brad Penny
Chad Billingsley
Derek Lowe
Hikori Kuroda
Jason Schmidt/Esteban Loaiza

Now, excuse me but....none of the Dodgers competitors have a "solid" back of the rotation (4th/5th).

Rockies have a wild but electric rookie and another young pitcher coming off an injured season.

Padres have a pitcher coming off season ending shoulder surgery and a pitcher who got by on smoke and mirrors who managed an ERA+ of 91 last year.

Dbacks are pretty solid but Doug Davis can blow up at any moment and RJ is an absolute mystery (more so than Loiaza and Schmidt).

I can't see how a subjective viewer can say the other 4 nl west teams have "much more solid rotations" from top to bottom.

by npurcell on Dec 17, 2007 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Blue Tinted?

Do you think, just maybe, you might be looking at this through blue tinted glases?

I mean, the 4/5 of every other team in the NL West is practically a no brainer better. Jason Schmidt? Why do you keep writing Jason Schmidt's name down? Jason Schmidt is Done with a capital D!

BTW. The Giants #5 is Kevin Correia with Sanchez and Pat Misch as insurance. I expect the Giants to sign at least one veteran dumpster dive type as additional insurance before the season.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 17, 2007 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Schmidt

I'm not buying into Schmidt being done with a capital D. He is not a power pitcher, but to say that he cannot even compete for a #5 slot is overkill. Can someone be looking at this through orange glasses with asterisks on the lenses?

by count sutton on Dec 17, 2007 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Schmidt

I'e been watching Schmidt very closely a lot longer than you. I said he was done when the Dodgers first signed him. Why would a shoulder surgery in the meantime change my mind?

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 17, 2007 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he did have a torn labrum.

i'm actually kind of with Dr. G on this one. listing schmidt in the #5 slot is accurate in the sense that the dodger org's official position is that he's the 5th starter until proven otherwise, but i expect that proof to arrive in abundance. i'd count on kuo before schmidt.

but that's easy, because i like kuo a lot! the thing about the back of the dodgers rotation is it's kind of a lottery. there's no sure thing, but four or five high-upside, high-risk options. it looks weird on paper, but i'd definitely rather have the best two out of kuroda / kuo / loaiza / mcdonald / stultz / elbert / meloan / kershaw than, say, randy wolf and justin germano.

i don't see why mcdonald is so far from the majors, given that he dominated AA last year. some regression is always possible, since he came out of nowhere and could always go back; and i know you saw him in person and were unimpressed. but - i mean, no hard feelings, but you are a giants fan. you wondered how his elevated fastballs would play at higher levels, but they certainly played at AA later on. and AA is really the last check before the big time. i wouldn't be surprised at all if he was at least effective enough to be a 5th starter right now.

and kershaw also hit AA and did well except for the walks. if his command settles down i expect to see him in the second half.

by wily mo on Dec 17, 2007 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

McDonald

Gotta give you props for an excellent memory of my analysis of McDonald. I saw him pitch against the San Jose Giants. He K'd 13 little Giants that night, so he must have brought close to his best stuff. He lost the game when he gave up two HR's that were crushed. He does work high in the zone. He has great secondary stuff to go with the high fastball, but I just wonder what major league hitters are going to do with high fastballs that sit in the low 90's. LOL! We might see a few balls go clean over the pavilions in Dodger Stadium!

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 17, 2007 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

McDonald is underrated

yes last season was his age 22 season but in pitching terms, he is still pretty new to it full time.

With a frame that suggests added velocity with a full pitchers strength and conditioning regime, I don't feel like his age should be a negative to him.

If anything it might be a positive because

he is that much closer to exiting the injury nexus for pitchers.
he is still relatively new to pitching full time that it is a very real possibility he can improve not only his pitchability intellect, but also his stuff.

by npurcell on Dec 17, 2007 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hey

don't forget james frickin' mcdonald now.

for frickin' out loud.

by wily mo on Dec 16, 2007 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Meloan

Nate,

was curious about your comment on Meloan. I hadn't heard anything about him possibly being moved back to starter. What have you heard regarding this and how do you think he would fare as a starter?

by jumanjifan01 on Dec 16, 2007 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

meloan

At the end of the season and after the season, Meloan has dropped hints of wanting to be moved back to starting. Colletti also supported those hints in some public quotes saying that option was in the cards for the Dodgers.

I'm still skeptical about Meloan's long term value as a starter though. i don't know if he has the delivery to handle that type of workload.

by npurcell on Dec 16, 2007 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs