Rank these pitchers

by drwmsu1 on Dec 11, 2007 2:01 PM EST Comment 54 comments

First let me 'fess up that I have a sim league draft fast approaching.

That said, I find this interesting anyway, as as soon as a player passes out of prospect-dom, little is heard about him. So how do you rate guys like Hughes and Buchholz now? I know how they were ranked by BA and John a year ago, but how would they be ranked today?

Please, do NOT rank them for fantasy purposes. I am curious who you project for their careers, not who will have a lower whip in '08.

The candidates: Gallardo, Lincecum, Bailey, Dice-K,Buchholz, Hughes, and Joba. At this point, my list probably reads Linc, Yo, Buch, Joba, Hughes, Dice-K and Homer. Tell me why I am wrong! Thanks!

For some reason I messed up the poll question and can't seem to fix it, it should read: ...with less than 1 year service time.

Poll

Who will be the best pitcher currently w/ >1yr service time?

Tim Lincecum

117 votes

Yovani Gallardo

53 votes

Clay Buchholz

41 votes

Joba Chamberlain

27 votes

Phil Hughes

44 votes

Homer Bailey

11 votes

Daisuke Matsuzaka

29 votes

322 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 54 comments

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Comments

rank

Gallardo
Lincecum
Buchholz
Joba
Dice K
Bailey
Hughes

by Galt on Dec 11, 2007 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hadn't seen your rank

just noticed it. We're close.

I think Yovani will have a better career than Lincecum, especially if, as has been reported, people are looking from a fantasy perspective. Gallardo will have 5-10 more wins than Lincecum every year for the foreseeable future.

by Galt on Dec 11, 2007 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

mine

i think this is mine exactly, except move gallardo down right below joba.

i love gallardo and own him on my team (and have a history of underrating him which may be a form of homer-bias compensation, and i might be doing it again here), but given that i like the mechanics of all four of those guys, i think the other three have the potential to achieve greater stratospheric heights due to better stuff.

so, in summary, love gallardo, but lincecum + buchholz + joba = possible super-aces. probably not all of them do it, and i bet gallardo comes out better than at least one and possibly all three, but as always, hard to tell which.

all other positions = exactly the same, and i noticed that only after ranking them myself. so, nice one.

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2007 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Would go with

Lincecum
Chamberlain
Bailey
Buchholz
Gallardo
Dice K
Hughes

by team name deleted on Dec 11, 2007 1:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bailey over Dice-K?

Yeah I admit I am sour on him after last season a bit, but I also think Dice K still has room to grow and get stronger, I'd go with Dice-K over Bailey right now.

Marcello on Tim Lincecum's 2008: "Yeah, he only pitched 180 innings last year, who knows if he can handle 200?!?!??"

by realityconquest on Dec 11, 2007 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Joba and the List

I decided to take Joba because of his unhittable slider and solid fastball. It is yet to be seen what he will do as a starter at the major league level, but the kid looked amazing in relief. Seeing hitters for the third and forth time in a game multiple times in a season may change things, but I take the gamble on Joba having the best career.

Chamberlain
Buchholz - I just like that he is going to be able to be a #3 or #4 for the next 4 or 5 years.
Gallardo - Love his stuff.
Hughes - I am concerned that the Yanks are willing to trade him.
Matzuzaka - We'll see what the Red Sox bought in 2008 - I am scared!
Lincecum - Love his stuff, but I see a career altering injury soon - see Jaret Wright.
Bailey - I hate that ballpark and wasn't too impressed with what I saw last year.

I would consider tossing Fausto Carmona into the mix. Also, there is a lot of hype surrounding Kershaw, I like that ballpark and team for a young pitcher.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball - http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com

by bheikoop on Dec 11, 2007 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My Take

Gallardo
Lincecum
Buchholz
Joba
Hughes
Bailey
Dice K

by ChrisRef19 on Dec 11, 2007 2:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

mlb.tv

Don't know if you guys know this or not, but if you have the mlb.tv package from last year, you can go back and click on the half-inning and watch just that. I've been going back and looking at the innings in which certain pitchers pitch to learn more about them.

Lincecum is NASTY. Trading him for Rios would be a crime.

by The Colonel on Dec 11, 2007 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

RE: Lincecum for Rios

Lincecum is nasty, you are right, but has terrible mechanics, he looks like Liriano with a worse build and we all see how that turned out (speaking of, Liriano should have made that list as well).

As for the trade, the only thing knocking it is the service time in my opinion. Rios is developing into a feared hitter and I think he could challenge for the triple crown in the NL. That said, hes also a plus fielder and an everyday player.

With that in mind, while Lincecum has ace stuff, the everyday player with similarly as impressive "tools" is the better bet. Check out WSAB or VORP overall and you can see that hitters have substantially more value (not to mention shelf life) then pitchers.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball - http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com

by bheikoop on Dec 11, 2007 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lincecum's terrible mechanics

oh man. you really don't want to do this.

(long pause)

ok. what's so terrible about them? specifically.

hint to get you started: lincecum's mechanics and liriano's mechanics are not similar in any meaningful way.

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2007 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree

Lincecum's mechanics are nothing like Liriano's. Lincecum's delivery is unorthodox, but its not bad mechanically. In fact I rarely see his mechanics complained about by people who seem to know what they are talking about.

I think the talk of him having bad mechanics came from the combination of the unorthodox delivery and the worries that he would break down because he has a poor build for a pitcher. I think that, as that combination of scouting comments got jumbled.

Ever play the game of telephone when you were a kid (kids in a circle, they pass a message around it by whispering it sequentially. The message always gets jumbled and twisted along the way)?

Somehow "He has tremendous stuff and an unorthodox/deceptive delivery, but is undersized and at risk to break down" turned into "He has tremendous stuff, but is likely to break down due to poor size and mechanics".

by grozzy on Dec 11, 2007 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mechanics

I think the way he explodes out of his delivery is what worries me. I can't think of a pitcher who does it the way he does that has had elongated success - note my comparison to Wright.

That is, today his mechanics look sound as he hasn't really faltered or fatigued. Mechanics tend to be affected by these as much as anything. I could definitely be wrong and hope I am because the kid is incredibly fun to watch. But I just don't see that type of explosion allowing him to last 220+ innings at the major league level.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball - http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com

by bheikoop on Dec 11, 2007 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lincecum

Baseball Think Factory breaks it down

This is a solid review, but the reader is cautioned, that "He's young, he's aggressive, and his mechanics are uncommon."

As for Lincecum v. Liriano, they both explode out of their deliveries. Similar. We will see in a couple years if his uncommon mechanics and aggressiveness are a fault.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball - http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com

by bheikoop on Dec 11, 2007 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sure

but "aggressive" has nothing to do with "looks like liriano". i have no idea what it means to "explode out of your delivery" - how can you do anything out of your delivery? your delivery is you - but he doesn't look anything like liriano. arm action is totally different, arm slot is totally different, lower body's different, timing's different. just because they both have unique deliveries doesn't mean both are equally dangerous.

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2007 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exploding...From a delivery

Watch video of both Liriano and Lincecum and tell me they do not look as if their bodies are going to spontaneously combust while pitching (or delivering).

As for the comparison to Liriano. I'm talking one wild delivery to another. Liriano looks as if his arm is going to come with the ball (more explosion) whereas Lincecum looks like his entire body is going to come with the ball.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball - http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com

by bheikoop on Dec 12, 2007 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nice mechanics but ....

when a pitcher relies on too much explosion

ie. Hudson, Harden, C.Lee, etc.

there are frequent ab injuries (or flexor, or ...)

This is quite normal and I can give (or make up) other cases. Lincecum does have good mechanics. But he does live on the edge as far as pushing his body. I can easily see him dominating for a few years then having to reinvent himself.

by pedrophile on Dec 12, 2007 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i hope you're right

as just 20 minutes ago i traded lincecum for justin upton. of course it helped that i have kazmir, felix, gallardo, francis, and mcgowan still in my rotation, and until the deal had adam jones as my 3rd outfielder.

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Dec 11, 2007 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well hell

that's probably a solid deal even if lincecum turns out to be a pedro, cause justin sure looks like a griffey.

i passed on justin to pick lincecum in my league's draft last year, and the only reason i don't regret it is my well-documented massive boner for lincecum on a style-points level. upton's an animal.

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2007 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

who doesn't have an erection from lincecum? i've been searching for centuries

when your ERA has letters and not numbers, it's a bad thing- kevin goldstein

by WakeboardJock on Dec 11, 2007 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who?

A number of very stupid ML scouting directors/GMs in the 2006 draft.

How good he was became obvious to me after a dozen pitches on Sunday night baseball. Size, delivery, blah, blah, blah.

When it's a once in a generation talent you have to roll the dice.

by GregJP on Dec 11, 2007 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

List

The list is "players with less than one year service", or maybe more accuraretly: those who debuted in '07. Liriano was up in '05, spent the whole of '06 on the active roster, '07 on the DL, that is two years of service. Carmona, who you mentioned earlier, spent a large chunk of '06 and all of '07 on the roster, thus he too has more than one year of service time.
Kershaw is still in the minors, so yeah, he has less than one year of service, but it really is guys who made their debuts this year, I probably should have phrased the poll thusly.

by drwmsu1 on Dec 11, 2007 3:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Joba

Is anyone else bothered by the hype? Yes, he has two plus pitches in the FB and slider, but I haven't heard raves about the 3rd pitch. In most cases that spells relief.

There's no question he stands to be a quality big league pitcher in one role or another, but to take him over most any of these guys at this point seems premature. Let's see him get through his second and third time around the league as a starter before we start to rank him over Lincecum, Hughes, Bucholz, Matsuzaka or Gallardo.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Dec 11, 2007 3:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

I don't even think he faced the same team twice last year in the minors as the Yanks promoted him quickly after each stop.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Dec 11, 2007 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not 2 plus pitches

He has 2 plus plus pitches, and there is a big difference. He has an average curve as his 3rd pitch and a slightly below-average change-up. He's got 4 pitches that he uses. People make a big deal about his fastball and where it sits, as a starter, it sat in the 93-97 mph range touching 99. He doesn't lose that much velocity as a starter.

by Tyler on Dec 11, 2007 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

there is a point where if your top 2 pitches are good enough, the third pitch stops mattering very much. randy johnson only threw 2 pitches, and he was pretty successful as a starter. it seems like joba's pretty close to that point, as long as he can truly sustain the quality of both pitches.

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2007 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

But at this point, we really don't know whether he can be successful in the rotation. For that reason, I would drop him down the list considerably.

by Yakker on Dec 11, 2007 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

he's a prospect. We don't know what any of these guys will do long term, none are established aces. What we do know is that he was straight dominant in the minors as a starter, then was straight dominant in the bigs as a closer and has 2 plus plus pitches. That's pretty convincing to me. Lincecum is the only guy I rank ahead of him at this point.

by Tyler on Dec 11, 2007 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Distinction

All of the others have started against ML competition. Normally, that wouldn't be a huge deal to me, but when the prospect's primary concern feeds into that (many pitchers with 2 pitches fail as SPs and succeed as RPs), it gives me pause.

by Yakker on Dec 11, 2007 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

post

I think they are in 2 distinct tiers, and this is my order within the tiers

Lincecum
Buchholz

then

Gallardo
Dice K
Hughes
Chamberlain
Bailey

I know that Chamberlain is the new flavor of the month, but I might be the only one that remembers him sliding to the supplemental round because of "really scary medicals", I think was how BA put it prior to the draft. He has great stuff, no question, but I think a major surgery is on the way. I'm not a Bailey fan at all.

by phuturephillies on Dec 11, 2007 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

List

This is pretty well how I see it.

He doesn't really qualify, but I'm curious where McGowan would slot in.

I'd put him just above or below Dice-K.

by GregJP on Dec 11, 2007 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so

good thing i reminded you about buchholz existing then

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2007 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reminder

No, I knew he existed. :-)

It was more a pitcher vs hitter thing. Given your opinion of Butler, it was high praise indeed.

by GregJP on Dec 11, 2007 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

that's true about joba. talent is undeniable, background is suspect. get a warranty. i don't know, i go back and forth on him. for all i just rated him over gallardo, i probably wouldn't trade gallardo for him given the choice.

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2007 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love Lincecum

almost as much as you but, I would ALMOST rank Joba #1. I dont have any doubts about him doing well. You should read the new article on him in ESPN.com... he may have been a bit pudgy in the past but, he is serious about conditining now...

I may be the only one that thinks that Buccholz is the most likely to be injured of the big 3.

Also, as many questions about Hughes as there are now I think I might take the rest of his career over Dice K's

by casejud on Dec 11, 2007 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Timmuh

Lincecum
Hughes
Gallardo
Buchholz
Dice K
Joba
big gap
Bailey

I like every pitcher on the list a whole lot except for Bailey.

Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Dec 11, 2007 3:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

list

Buchholz
Gallardo
Chamberlain
Hughes
Bailey
Lincecum

by Rajah358 on Dec 11, 2007 3:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I would rate them

Lincecum
Hughes
Gallardo
Joba
Bucholz
Dice-K
Bailey

Not a knock on Homer, this is just an incredibly tough list to crack.

I cannot believe someone actually compared Lincecum's mechanics to those of Liriano. That is someone that has not watched a lot of baseball the last couple years. If someone really wants to comp Lincecum, I think the perfect comp is Orel Hershiser. Their body types are similar, and both throw with similar motions. Go look at tape. Their stuff is even fairly similar, though Timmy can bring it a little faster.

I really think Timmy can have a similar peak to that of Orel. If Hershiser does not get hurt, he's likely a HOF. And as-is, he was close.

FWIW, Hughes is the perfect "post-hype sleeper" candidate. You will never be able to get him more cheaply than this offseason.

by guru4u on Dec 11, 2007 3:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

check the link in my signature

and buchholz is #1 by a large margin. i see him, i think maddux.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (new content)

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Dec 11, 2007 3:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oof

Really, no young pitcher should be compared to Maddux (or Moyer) IMO. They broke the mold after they made those guys.

by Yakker on Dec 11, 2007 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mine:

Lincecum
Buccholz
Dice-K
Gallardo
Hughes
Joba (unless you think he is for sure starting, then move him up a couple spots)
Bailey

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Dec 11, 2007 4:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My Predictions

In terms of how I think they'll be regarded after their careers are over (just general predictions):

Gallardo - Kid's stuff and control are sick, and he's still improving. I think he'll be a top 5 CY votegetter several times. I don't think a Roy Oswalt career path is out of the question.
Buchholz - His curveball is the best pitch of any of these guys. Good three-pitch mix with a bulldog demeanor and a true 80 pitch means I think he'll win a few strikeout titles. However, he's 2nd because I think he'll end up being more limited in terms of innings pitched because his pitch array is a type where you need to throw more pitches to go for the Ks. I'm thinking Kerry Wood without the injuries.
Joba - Very good three pitch mix. Playing for the Yankees in his early years helps his wins total. Has the frame where he could continue to pitch okay if his velocity gets sapped. All-star level pitcher for the first half of his career, with a semi-injured backside of his career where he performs more like David Wells.
Lincecum - Will be very good but the control and lack of a good third pitch will keep him from being great. Probably an all-star a few times in his career, but also has some average seasons interspersed between them.
Bailey - Solid above-average pitcher for most of his career. His pure stuff isn't quite at the level of the guys above him, and his control isn't as good as the top two. Will be hurt by playing in GBAP early in his career. Might be able to make an all-star game or two. I see him having a career somewhere between Bobby Witt and Ramon Martinez (i.e. lots of Ks but lots of walks, and more hittable than his stuff should otherwise indicate). I could also see him having a career like Curt Schilling of Jason Schmidt (finding better control mid-career and taking off), so I might be underranking him.
Dice-K - I think he has 2 or 3 more years left in him where he can be about where he was last year or better, but all that wear and tear on his arm early in his career means he'll fall off a cliff before his 34th birthday, just like almost every other star Japanese starter. Peak might be better than Bailey's, but not nearly as much career value.
Hughes - I hate to say it, but I see him being a wreck with injuries. A career path similar to Carl Pavano seems likely (flashes of brilliance when healthy, but not healthy all that frequently). If he can stay healthy, he's probably #3.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2007 4:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

lincecum's lack of a third pitch

check this out:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-tim-lincecum/

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2007 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lincecum's 'third pitch'

was one of the most jaw-dropping pitches I've ever seen up close.

That change is, to me, ahead of his curve.
I'm not a scout, I'm just a guy on the internet, but seriously - it dove like a Mike Scott splitter. Utterly unhittable.

So far, the MLB stats for that pitch are remarkably similar.

Maybe the guy meant the curve was his third pitch?

by marc w on Dec 11, 2007 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well, let's ask him.

were you talking about the curve, brick?

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2007 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

although

looking at the article, the pitchf/x data doesn't show the change breaking downwards at all. the opposite, if anything - coming in on a RH batter and staying up a little.

i remember the first time i saw lincecum's fastball jump in on a guy's hands on TV - i was like "what the hell kind of pitch was that?" (short pause) "awesome."

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2007 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very well said

I will give some opinions on these guys myself:
Tim--I am a size snob. I love his stuff, and his mechanics don't bother me (although they may prevent him from ever gaining great command), but I am still hesitant about his size. I ranked him first, but can be swayed, easily.
Gallado--He just impressed me. People here were talking about Hughes being wiser than his years, but Gallardo is the one I thought showed the most maturity. I like his mechanics and stuff a lot.
Buchholz. I watched his MLB debut (missed the no-no), and was really impressed. That curve is sick. What is his injury history? I also like the fact he probably won't be throwing 200 IP anytime soon.
Joba--well, I saw what you all saw. The sky is the limit, but there are the injury concerns.
Hughes--I know, he was hurt. But I just didn't see the stuff, and I watched most of his starts. He looked much better in the playoffs, but he wasn't trying to go seven, don't know if he has the stamina. Of course, he is the youngest on the list.
Dice-K---is what you see what you get? Or will he have a Beckett-like breakout next year? Like his stuff, don't like his focus. Seems he just loses it for an inning a game.
Bailey--I have never seen him pitch. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up better than half the other six, but I don't know him, and his BB numbers scare me.

by drwmsu1 on Dec 11, 2007 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Buch

has the best #3 pitch. Actually I'm cheating because his change is probably his best pitch.

I see him as the #1 because he has a very good fastball and top curve + an amazing change.

by pedrophile on Dec 12, 2007 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dice-K

I watched a start of his against the Jays very early in the year, and he was SICK good.

The next time I saw him in July he was a shell of that, and seemed to be getting by more on guile than stuff.

If he can somehow sustain his "A" stuff over the course of most of a year, he is #1 on this list IMO.

To me he is a major "buy low" for next year if you are in a fantasy league.

by GregJP on Dec 11, 2007 4:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I agree. Everyone seems so down on him now because he underachieved so much in the latter half of the season and in the play-offs. Nothing less than shut-outs would do. But I still think he is a top of the rotation arm. He's only about 27 or so, so age has no bearing on him. It was his first taste of MLB and of going on shorter rest. Next season I can see him having 19 wins and a sub 3.70 ERA with about 9 strikeouts and 3 walks per 9.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Dec 11, 2007 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs