Detroit Tigers Top 20 Prospects for 2008
Detroit Tigers Top 20 Prospects
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.
- Rick Porcello, RHP, Grade B+ (I am hesitant to give out a Grade A- or Grade A without seeing some pro numbers first. This grade should not be interpreted as a negative comment on Porcello).
- Jeff Larish, 1B, Grade B- (generous grade, could lower to C+)
- Danny Worth, SS, Grade B- (I like him a lot)
- Yorman Bazardo, RHP, Grade C+
- Michael Hollimon, INF, Grade C+
- Charlie Furbush, LHP, Grade C+
- Brandon Hamilton, RHP, Grade C+
- Duane Below, LHP, Grade C+
- James Skelton, C, Grade C+
- Casey Crosby, LHP, Grade C+
- Diek Scram, OF, Grade C+
- Scott Sizemore, 2B, Grade C+
- Francisco Cruceta, RHP, Grade C
- Jordan Tata, RHP, Grade C
- Clay Rapada, LHP, Grade C
- Cale Iorg, SS, Grade C (suspect Baseball America will rank him higher but I want to see some data and two years of rust worries me)
- Brett Jensen, RHP, Grade C (could be a C+ I suppose, but old for level)
- Clete Thomas, OF, Grade C
- Brent Clevlen, OF, Grade C (almost ready to give up)
- Noah Krol, RHP, Grade C
This system has been utterly gutted by trades. How quickly can it recover?
Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!
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Comments
Crosby
by aCone419 on Dec 10, 2007 1:33 PM EST 0 recs
crosby!
by John Sickels on
Dec 10, 2007 1:37 PM EST
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I want to complement you
by sdtribefan on
Dec 10, 2007 6:47 PM EST
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well AS A SYSTEM its good
The Tigers have been producing talent, they just happened to give it all away for a good starting pitcher and a HOF-caliber third baseman within the last week.
And thats what your farm system is for, supplying your big league club with good players.
The minor league operation itself is fine and it is doing its job well, so there is really no need to be all gloom and doom about it even if the cupboard is temporarily bare because you just cooked a feast.
Just a week ago the farm talent would have been well-regarded. Its a fluke based on when the list was released and when the deal went through
Its like the Mets after Wright and Reyes came up.
Would you rather be a fan of a team with two impact young big leaguers or two A-level prospects.
by nms on
Dec 10, 2007 6:55 PM EST
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Cabrera is a HOF potential hitter.
He is an A ball 3B who should be a DH in the AL. If Willis is considered a "good starting pitcher" who is "an impact young big leaguer", somebody has been sneaking trips in Rocky and Bullwinkels Way Back Machine.
There are also some people who believe that a farm system serves value as depth for the ML club for injuries and underperformers.
Detroit had a better batting order than Cleveland last year. It is now even better. Cleveland had better starting pitching which is now much better. Cleveland had better fielding and that gap is even wider now. There is no legitimate comparison of relief pitching. Now, Detroit has no one to call up for at least two years to help out and Cleveland has the same productive organization which supplied so much help to last year's team.
The Yankees have proved that you cannot win a WS without pitching, defense and depth with a payroll of $200+ million! Do you really think the Tigers can succeed with the same approach with a $140 million payroll?
I appreciante the commentary but to get Cabrera and Willis, Detroit gave up a better pitcher than Willis, a superior 5 tool talent in Maybin, their only healthy backup C and 3 decent upper level pitching prospects. When you include the Jurjens trade to get a defensive statue for a SS, it looks to me that the Tigers gave up any future the franchise might have to make a big offensive splash in 2008. To be honest, I had hoped the Detroit franchise wouldn't implode and there would be a great rivalry that would improve the revenues for both teams. Sadly, Detroit does not appear to have the organization to be competitive long term with the Tribe. But keep up the cheery face, that is what being a fan is all about.
by sdtribefan on
Dec 10, 2007 11:08 PM EST
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re
Saying that Rabelo was the Tigers only healthy backup catcher is false. Vance Wilson will be ready for the start of spring training.
"The Yankees have proved that you cannot win a WS without pitching, defense and depth with a payroll of $200+ million! Do you really think the Tigers can succeed with the same approach with a $140 million payroll?"
This statement is ridiculous. It is foolish to say that the Tigers have no pitching, defense, or depth. Please, you know that isn't true.
I'm sure the point of this post was that you believe that the Indians are still better than the Tigers, but throwing out a bunch of false statements doesn't make that point.
by SBcaptain2 on
Dec 10, 2007 11:38 PM EST
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Absolutely not the point.
I want the Tigers to be a healthy franchise because it helps Cleveland. However, I think they got desperate because of Cleveland's overall strength and a sinking feeling that the Twinkies might have pushed some good buttons for 2008. Like Cleveland, they have the organizational depth to make some things happen.
Maybe you are right and some of these lesser talents will help Detroit but do you really believe they will help more than Miller, Jurjens and Maybin did last year?
Detroit has an excellent, young #1 starter in Verlander. I am not sure any other starter is a #3, but most assuredly there is no #2. Mostly innings eaters #4/5s. Maybe one of these fringe average SPs break through in 2008 but nothing in their recent past suggests that. Maybe the weakest staff in the Central at this point if you include the relievers.
Hey, SBcaptain2, I call them like I see them. You can disagree with me which is the point of the forum but I do not believe the statements that I actually made are false. I can defend mine and you can defend yours! Is this a great forum or what?
by sdtribefan on
Dec 11, 2007 5:39 AM EST
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#2 pitcher
Bonderman had a 3.48 ERA in the first half of last season. And then he became injured.
by ian on
Dec 11, 2007 11:36 AM EST
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Looks like we agree
by sdtribefan on
Dec 11, 2007 6:08 PM EST
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Miller
by ian on
Dec 12, 2007 10:13 PM EST
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Hmmmmm
And why are Tribe fans so dang concerned about the well-being of the Detroit Tigers in the 2011 season and beyond?
It's a strange preoccupation that's popped up.
by LickSplickidy on
Dec 10, 2007 11:53 PM EST
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Response
"Now, Detroit has no one to call up for at least two years to help out and Cleveland has the same productive organization which supplied so much help to last year's team."
Actually, Detroit just called up Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Think of it like that. As for the other thing . . .huh?
"Detroit gave up a better pitcher than Willis,"
Andrew Miller has nice potential if he stays healthy, but he isn't anything close to the pitcher that Willis is at this point. And quite frankly, I'd be surprised if he gets there. I don't see Miller making a run at the Cy any time soon.
"a superior 5 tool talent in Maybin"
Um, thanks, you take Maybin, I'll take the guy who's producing at a Hall of Fame level. Maybin's a great talent, but Miggie Cabrera is a great player. And for teams like the Tigers, that's a pretty big difference.
"it looks to me that the Tigers gave up any future the franchise might have to make a big offensive splash in 2008"
Yeah, adding Miggie Cabrera and a SS who put up a .860 OPS last year doesn't do very much for me, either.
"Sadly, Detroit does not appear to have the organization to be competitive long term with the Tribe. But keep up the cheery face, that is what being a fan is all about."
They traded for a 26 year old pitcher who almost won a Cy Young a couple of years ago and a 25 year old who happens to be one of the very best hitters in baseball despite being only 25. I hope you realize we're talking about baseball and not tennis.
Quite frankly, I'm just totally left clueless by your post. This was an absolute no-brainer of a move, short-term or long-term. All of us should be wishing that our own favorite team could/would make a similar move.
by mrkupe on
Dec 11, 2007 12:45 AM EST
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Your posts are usually much better.
Miller pitched better last year and he has his career ahead of him. He will pitch better than Willis who is on an early downhill run. It happens. Cliff Lee is better than Willis by the stats and Lee is not likely to make the Tribe opening day roster.
Read what I said. Cabrera-2 1/2 great tools. Maybin-5 tools. Miguel Cabrera is a great hitter, nothing more, nothing less. Your 860 OPS SS is one of the weakest defenders at that position in the Majors. He catches what he reaches which isn't much. Peralta, who isn't my idea of a defensive giant at the position, covers more ground.
Hey, you said you were clueless. I'll leave it at that. Just glad my Indians didn't make a dumb trade like this one even though Cleveland has enough prospects so it wouldn't destroy the system. When all you have is a few near ML ready prospects like Detroit had last year, your choices are limited. Yeah, Cabrera and Willis are young. Looks like a pretty old team otherwise. But if your happy as a Tigers fan, I am ecstatic for the Tribe. Win-Win.
by sdtribefan on
Dec 11, 2007 4:44 AM EST
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dude
He has been an above-average to great starting pitcher every other year but last. While last year does bring up questions it was also a huge outlier. One poor year doesnt erase all the good ones, theres more to a player than "what have you done for me lately"
by nms on
Dec 11, 2007 1:37 AM EST
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Ks down, BBs up, WHIP up, HRs up
If you characterize Willis as having nothing but good years, then I figured out why the Indians are keeping Cliff Lee. He is a HOF pitcher by comparison, but only by comparison.
by sdtribefan on
Dec 11, 2007 4:22 AM EST
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Rates
- 6.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
- 6.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
- 6.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9
by Yakker on
Dec 11, 2007 4:33 PM EST
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i have no idea how you thin kthat
I like the upsides and talent of both Maybin and Miller but its not like you traded them for mediocre players, you traded them for very good ones. So you could wait a year or two for Maybin/Miller to (possibly) become good players or you could deal them now for guys who already ARE good players (admittedly there is a small chance Willis is hurt o something and doesn't bounce back), guys who have achieved (or even exceeded) what Maybin and Millers upsides are.
Also, I can't believe you included "giving up your backup C" as a negative in the deal. In a deal like this giving up Mike Rabelo is "whatever". You can sign any number of random vets to one year/low money deals to get a replacement.
Rabelo does not matter at all.
As for the other three I think you overstate their value. Eulogio de la Cruz has a great arm and a great name, but right now he looks like a reliever.
Burke Badenhop is like Rabelo, not a player you think twice about in a deal like this. Hes a 25 year old soft-tossing late pick college groundball guy. If you really want this kind of thing you can get another one in next years draft easily.
Hell, you already have a lefty version in Duane Below and a similar sort in Jordan Tata.
Trahern is a younger, better version of Badenhop.
He throws strikes, and keeps the ball on the ground, but he can't strike anyone out.
So yes, Detroit could have kept the players so as to give them a couple guys to call up like the Indians did or they could deal them now to get two all-stars who will contribute all year.
And while yes, this is a "deal for now" move it gives them a better chance of winning a championship now than not making the deal would have given them in the future. So if the choices are have a small chance at a championship in a few years or have a better chance this year why WOULDN'T you trade the future for the present?
You've got to commit to winning now at some point.
by nms on
Dec 11, 2007 1:52 AM EST
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Yes. No. More tools though so more rounded.
Is there a better chance this year? Are championships won by the best hitting team? Seems to me it has more to do with pitching and defense. If it were my team, I would much rather have a staff that included Miller and Jurjens with some ML backups than the staff Detroit has now. I thought Detroit would be a force for several years with its pitching depth. Now they will be a great hitting team, something like the Indians of 2006. BTW, it looks to me like Detroit will be spending its $ on FAs after this year. Gonna resign the old guys? Or bid for the FAs? Tough choice but that's the path.
by sdtribefan on
Dec 11, 2007 5:06 AM EST
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hitting
As for the Tigers, Robertson, Rogers, and Todd Jones I think are the only significant free agents after this season, so they should have 2 years of contention at least. Bonderman and Willis are only 25, and given their track records there is some potential upside there.
by thefume on
Dec 11, 2007 10:46 AM EST
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Just silly
But now that those four decent - but 100% fungible - players are gone, the Tigers are going to crash and burn?
So long as Ilitch puts up the money, in four years the Tigers will have a lineup with Miggy, Granderson, Guillen, Ordonez and Larish. Hollimon, Sizemore, Worth and Iorg can fill at least 2 spots in the infield. Skelton could be the catcher. Basically they have question marks at catcher and one infield (SS or 3b) position.
The rotation will be Verlander (28) Porcello (22) Bondo (29) Willis (29) and one of a dozen decent guys in the minors. Yes the Tigers need to build a bullpen but the Padres build and re-build their bullpen over and over.
The lies that "The Tigers are old" or "The Tigers window is 2 years" are just that; nothing but lies.
by RatkoVarda on
Dec 11, 2007 3:18 PM EST
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Hey John
I think the point of my threads is that the Tigers will have to keep spending on re-signs of older players or the FA market. Yankees Central! Looks like we agree on that!
$140 million is a lot to spend on payroll and not have a pitching staff that can win in the postseason. Once you have taken this course, you just cannot stop.
BTW, I think EDLC and Trahern could have been solid midrotation starters in time. Badenhop is probably a #5. I have also seen Porcello get lit up by 16 year olds. He was nowhere near the top pitcher at the 2006 AFLAC game.
by sdtribefan on
Dec 11, 2007 6:45 PM EST
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cmon
Here you go spewing false information again. Our pitching staff can't the postseason? HELLO! remember the 2006 playoffs. Our pitchers have already proven that they can win in the postseason. The only guy in our rotation that didn't contribute to our 06 world series run is Dontrelle Willis, who was in the rotation for the WS champion Marlins a few years ago.
by SBcaptain2 on
Dec 11, 2007 6:53 PM EST
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Great argument but I said
by sdtribefan on
Dec 11, 2007 11:55 PM EST
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wow
i guess we'll just have to see what team was a bigger fluke, the '06 Tigers or the '07 Indians.
by thefume on
Dec 12, 2007 10:08 AM EST
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I'm at work so...
Don't know him...thanks!
by themurph on Dec 10, 2007 1:35 PM EST 0 recs
Worth
by SBcaptain2 on
Dec 10, 2007 1:47 PM EST
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You think
by Rajah358 on
Dec 10, 2007 2:35 PM EST
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re
I don't think he'll hit enough to be a difference maker in the big leagues.
by Edman85 on
Dec 10, 2007 4:13 PM EST
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Difference
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 10, 2007 1:40 PM EST 0 recs
The Astros
by SBcaptain2 on Dec 10, 2007 1:43 PM EST 0 recs
Really?
by doublestix on
Dec 10, 2007 5:10 PM EST
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re
by SBcaptain2 on
Dec 10, 2007 5:13 PM EST
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Tigers system
by SBcaptain2 on Dec 10, 2007 1:49 PM EST 0 recs
I agree
Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin were two of those guys that slipped in the draft b/c of signability concerns.
Verlander and Porcello as well.
No doubt the Tigers system is in rough shape at the moment, but I like a number of the guys they have in the low minors (especially from the 2007 draft), and I feel that they'll replenish the system in 2-3 years anyways.
This is a key year for guys like Larish and Sizemore, but they have a chance to take the next step as well.
by sportznut3081 on
Dec 10, 2007 2:17 PM EST
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Bush
by aCone419 on
Dec 10, 2007 5:20 PM EST
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Nah
by Brickhaus on
Dec 10, 2007 6:04 PM EST
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Drew vs Bush
by DrBGiantsfan on
Dec 10, 2007 6:34 PM EST
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re
by SBcaptain2 on
Dec 10, 2007 5:26 PM EST
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Yes
They became Tigers b/c of their perceived signability issues, and price tags.
Clearly, in regards to Verlander, he didn't really fall, but the concerns were there had the Tigers passed on him as well.
by sportznut3081 on
Dec 10, 2007 5:49 PM EST
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the real reasons
by TigerFanInCleveland on
Dec 10, 2007 9:33 PM EST
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Well
by kaisertown on
Dec 10, 2007 11:41 PM EST
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Big Misconception
It was just spent very poorly, starting with Randy Smith, poor scouting, poor coaching, and giving contracts to the Bobby Higginson's, Tony Clark's, and Damion Easley's of the world.
His spending on the team goes back to Cecil Fielder, but clearly there were more bad signings than good ones by far.
It took him longer to turn the Tigers around than the Wings, but its not like the Wings were a powerhouse overnight.
It took Illitch sometime to get the right man (Dombrowski) to take care of the job, and its paying dividends now.
Illitch is spending more now than he has before b/c more fans are showing up, and the team is competitive. If you look at the numbers of the team's payroll in the past, they were always competitive at least from a division standpoint spending wise.
The best thing that ever happened to the Tigers was Juan Gonzalez turning down an 8 year, 140 million dollar offer.
If not for that, they probably wouldn't have half the team they do now.
by sportznut3081 on
Dec 11, 2007 12:27 AM EST
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I totally agree
by kaisertown on
Dec 11, 2007 12:44 PM EST
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Red Wings
by SBcaptain2 on
Dec 10, 2007 11:55 PM EST
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Hockey Town
Hockey is not a terrible TV sport, it just draws little due to demographics. Hockey used to be one of the leaders in terms of TV sports when they had a slew of recognizable faces and a lot of star power. With the slowed-down sport and the lock out, much of the star power has been removed from hockey and only recently is beginning to gain traction with stars like Crosby and now Malkin and Ovechkin opening their arms to North America.
by bheikoop on
Dec 11, 2007 11:25 AM EST
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Yeah
And Buffalo will always own the chicken wing!
by kaisertown on
Dec 11, 2007 12:47 PM EST
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Sizemore
by TheCouga on Dec 10, 2007 2:45 PM EST 0 recs
Re: Sizemore
by jdmcrae on
Dec 10, 2007 4:37 PM EST
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He was a very decent, not-outstanding
A guy that is a 2b-only, not a shortstop, really needs to show an impact bat (or at least great speed and defense and a solid bat) to be a significant prospect in low A, especially if he is old
by nms on
Dec 10, 2007 6:07 PM EST
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Sizemore
Second, he really broke out in the second half of the season last year. Look at his splits. He really struggled in April and May, but he really picked it up afterwards and became a force in the Whitecaps' lineup.
by SBcaptain2 on
Dec 10, 2007 6:21 PM EST
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ill take you word for it that
As for the defense, I know he was played a little SS but as I recall he played 2b almost exclusively at VCU (though I could be wrong) which doesn't bode well for him as a major league SS.
I havn't seen a single scout say he could be an average ML defensive SS. I could be wrong about that though, my bad if i am.
I'm not saying hes a bad player, hes really not. It IS hard for ANYONE to hit in the MWL in April and May. Its a pitchers league, and its only wose when its cold and I know WMich's park is especially hard to hit in.
I'm just saying he is not at all outstanding and C+ is a very fair grade
by nms on
Dec 10, 2007 6:47 PM EST
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re
by SBcaptain2 on
Dec 10, 2007 7:12 PM EST
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everyone knows
Its much more about everything BESIDES the stats
by nms on
Dec 10, 2007 6:08 PM EST
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Brett Jensen
Wouldn't be surprised to see him make it one of these days...
by doublestix on Dec 10, 2007 6:24 PM EST 0 recs
Skelton
System has been gutted, but there are still some players I like a bit. Just no uber-prospects that get you excited except Porcello.
by mcq fesijiba on Dec 10, 2007 6:41 PM EST 0 recs
wait...
by nms on Dec 10, 2007 6:56 PM EST 0 recs
grades
GRADES FOR PITCHERS ARE NOT THE SAME AS GRADES FOR HITTERS AND DIRECT COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE TWO ARE MISLEADING. That is why I put them on separate 50/50 lists.
by John Sickels on
Dec 10, 2007 7:30 PM EST
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Clevlen
by bobbymcnally on Dec 10, 2007 7:42 PM EST 0 recs
re
by SBcaptain2 on
Dec 10, 2007 8:14 PM EST
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re
by doublestix on
Dec 10, 2007 8:16 PM EST
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Always
I, for one, am very surprised to see Larish as the #2 prospect, as I view him as something of a bum. His AA numbers were slightly worse than those of Carlos Pena...except Pena was 5 years younger in AA.
I guess that's the most telling sign of a decimated system. There are, however, three players in whom I am particularly interested. Duane Below really pitched well in A ball last year, and he also seemed to step up in the playoffs. James Skelton is a guy who certainly lacks significant pop, but he plays a premium position and he seems to be a good hitter for average. And Charlie Furbush is a guy who looks to have a good arm but maybe some questionable mental makeup.
I realize that all three guys were a bit old for their level, and I've not seen any of them play in person, but their stats certainly looked good.
I'm wondering, has anyone else seen them play?
How is Skelton as a fielder?
What kind of stuff does Below have?
Does Furbush have a shot at bigger things?
by UTBagwell on Dec 10, 2007 9:08 PM EST 0 recs
re
I havn't seen Below play, but I'v heard he's a soft-tosser.
Furbush started his professional career with a bang so hopefully he as a shot at bigger things.
by SBcaptain2 on
Dec 10, 2007 10:17 PM EST
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Skelton...
by ftheyankees on
Dec 11, 2007 6:46 AM EST
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Correction on Larish
Larish: 10/11/82
24 and a half to start AA in 2007.
Pena: 5/17/78
22 on the dot to start AA in 2000.
That's about 2 and a half years apart, not 5. Were Larish's numbers slightly worse than Pena's? Let's check the magic of baseball-reference's league stats for the minors:
Pena - .944 OPS, .764 league OPS, .799 team OPS.
Larish - .905 OPS, .738 league OPS, .757 team OPS.
Pena - .180 over league OPS, .145 over team OPS.
Larish - .167 over league OPS, .147 over team OPS.
They look like very similar lines. Pena's numbers were EVER-so-slightly better, if at all. After that 2000 season, Pena was named by BA as the #1 Rangers prospect and #11 overall prospect in baseball. If anything, I think John's B- grade for Larish is too conservative. Larish looks like a B or B+ prospect to me.
by fourthbase on
Dec 17, 2007 12:12 AM EST
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I think Iorg
I think Iorg has to be a C+ because of his potential at this point.


