2008 community prospect ratings--dexter fowler

by jpahk on Dec 10, 2007 12:43 AM EST Comment 10 comments

this thread is for discussion of dexter fowler, OF, colorado rockies. here are some links to fowler's minor league stats:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=4930
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Dexter%20Fowler&pos=OF&sid=milb&am p;t=p_pbp&pid=451594
http://firstinning.com/players/Dexter-Fowler-a/

i'll leave this thread open for at least 48 hours. you can vote at any time, but since you can't change your vote, if you are uncertain in any way, it's probably best to refrain from voting until after you get a chance to read the discussion.

the numerical ratings should follow this scale:

10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1

the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.

for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.

Poll

How good a prospect is Dexter Fowler?

10

2 votes

9

1 votes

8

7 votes

7

31 votes

6

38 votes

5

25 votes

4

3 votes

3

1 votes

2

0 votes

1

0 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 10 comments

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Comments

Too Tall?

Is he really 6'4"? I don't like to see that kind of height on a player who has shown no power so far. His SB is nothing to write home about either. With no power and a large strike zone, I think he could have trouble maintaining his OBP at higher levels.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 10, 2007 12:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Power

He showed budding power last year. Seems strange for it to just disappear.

by aCone419 on Dec 10, 2007 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

injury

he missed a good chunk of the season with a hand injury. i'm not sure if it's fully healed or what, but he was named to the AFL all-prospect team despite hitting only 224/325/308. BA ranked him the #9 prospect in the fall league, ahead of guys like teagarden, swarzak, clement, and scherzer.

having said that, i'd like to see him healthy and productive for a full season before i rate him higher than a 6 or so.

by jpahk on Dec 10, 2007 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Injury

It's my understanding that he didn't play at all after being injured, so that doesn't really help explain the drop off in his production before he got hurt.

by aCone419 on Dec 10, 2007 1:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Injury

Well it would explain the drop in production if the injury was a lingering one. I don't recall how he got hurt? Did he get HBP'd?

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Dec 10, 2007 8:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure

He ran into the wall catching a flyball and broke a bone in his hand.

by Prospector on Dec 10, 2007 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I am saying.

The injury knocked him out for the year. He didn't play at all after he ran into the wall. He showed a bizarre loss of power beforehand.

by aCone419 on Dec 10, 2007 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fowler's season

He started off extremely slow for some reason and got hot in mid-may until he got in June. His overall #'s are actually pretty great if you had looked at his April #'s.

Things to like: defense, batting eye, and speed. Batting eye and speed are a great combination

Things he needs to work on: power (hopefully will develop naturally), needs to pick his spots more efficiently for stealing

by BaseballBrain on Dec 10, 2007 12:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

5

The fact that his power went down significantly in the Cali League is VERY worrisome to me. Asheville as a home park has a reputation of creating hitters where they don't otherwise exist. Every year there's a hitter or two who blows up there and never is able to replicate the performance. I believe that Asheville has the shortest RF wall in the minors, and a lot of hitters take advantage of that and boost their power numbers by hitting a ton of homeruns at home. Asheville is the most hitter friendly park outside of the Cali League and PCL, so there's reason to have skepticism when the player's power falls off a cliff the next year, especially when he's going to the Cali League.

He has a nice set of tools, and knows how to walk, but his lack of pop and his problems on the basepaths hurt him in my eyes. I feel like he's really a .260/.350/.340 type hitter in a neutral field, and if he was putting up that line as a 21 year old in A+, I wouldn't have him anywhere near prospect lists. He has more than just a pulse, but he's not even at the level where I'd consider him a good prospect at the moment.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2007 5:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs