Los Angeles Angels Top 20 Prospects for 2008
Los Angeles Angels Top 20 Prospects for 2008.
- Brandon Wood, 3B, Grade B+
- Nick Adenhart, RHP, Grade B+
- Hang Conger, C, Grade B+
- Jordan Walden, RHP, Grade B (high praise for a rookie ball pitcher)
- Sean O'Sullivan, RHP, Grade B
- Sean Rodriguez, SS, Grade B (I am sticking to my guns, I like him)
- Chris Pettit, OF, Grade B-
- Trevor Bell, RHP, Grade C+
- Stephen Marek, RHP, Grade C+
- Jeremy Haynes, RHP, Grade C+
- Hainley Statia, SS, Grade C+
- Peter Bourjos, OF, Grade C+
- David Herndon, RHP, Grade C+
- Terry Evans, OF, Grade C+
- Matthew Sweeney, 3B, Grade C+
- Miguel Gonzalez, RHP, Grade C+
- Felipe Arredondo, RHP, Grade C+
- Robert Fish, LHP, Grade C+
- Anthony Ortega, RHP, Grade C
- Jose Arredondo, RHP, Grade C
Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!
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67 comments
Comments
Walden
by Abbath on Dec 1, 2007 5:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wow
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 1, 2007 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
3B
by Savoy on Dec 1, 2007 5:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Madrigal
by NMUWildcat027 on Dec 1, 2007 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ARL
Player X at A ball (last year): WHIP=1.18, K/9=7.05
Player X was two years, seven months younger than player A when each played at A ball, Player X gets a "B-" (last year), Player A gets a "B" (this year). Similar stats, much better ARL for X, but a worse grade.
Player C at AA ball (this year): WHIP=1.46, K/9=6.82
Player X at A+ ball (this year): WHIP= 1.17, K/9=6.62
Player X is two years, eight months younger than Player C, both get "B+'s." Similar stats, much better ARL for X, both get the same grade.
How does age relative to league work in the grading? (A is Sean O'Sullivan, X is Delios Guerra, C is Nick Adenhart). I assume the problem is Guerra, like F. Martinez, is especially difficult to grade because of the ARL issue.
by dopey on Dec 1, 2007 6:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm guessing...
I'm not trying to an a*hole, but then again, maybe I am? You can't compress everything for a player into K/9 and WHIP.
by omambiyick on Dec 3, 2007 1:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No need to guess
The point in using two stats that are serviceable proxies for "stuff" and "control" is to avoid having to list every single stat. I imagine that is why people simplify to OPS when discussing hitters.
Anyway, here are some other stats
GB/AO: A--1.34 X(last year)--1.27
X(this year)--1.51 C--1.45
BB/9: A--2.27 X(last year)--4.08
X(this year)--2.51(this year) C--3.82
HR/9: A--.34 X(last year)--0.33
X(this year)--1.23 C--.41
The big difference is in HR/9, but otherwise the stats are similar. If keeping the ball in the park despite similar GB/AO and WHIP ratios is a repeatable skill, then maybe this makes a difference. I have no opinion in that regard (ok, I do have an opinion--it is probably not repeatable). I still think the similarity between the three is an interesting way to get at whether ARL is over or undervalued (I suspect the latter at this point).
Guerra obviously has way more projectibility than the other two (listed at 6-5, 200), Adenhart has the worst injury history.
I'm not sure what an a*hole is so I can't comment.
by dopey on Dec 3, 2007 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Adenhart
I get that he's a bit young for his level, but a K/9<7? BB/9 almost 4? K/9 dropping steadily at each level? At this rate, it'll be down to around 4 by the time he gets to the majors!
It's not like we have a small sample size of stats to evaluate him by. Neither the stats from last year nor the trends over the last 3 years are at all encouraging. Those are the numbers of somebody with not so great stuff and not so great command of said stuff.
There's that nagging history of TJ to factor in too.
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 1, 2007 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
by toonsterwu on Dec 1, 2007 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by the pinstripes on Dec 2, 2007 1:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
(sung as a song)
who keep micro-analyzing adenhart's numbers
cannot see
the forest
because you are in
the tundra
by wily mo on Dec 2, 2007 2:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Microanalyzing?
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 2:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Count me as an Adenhart fan...
These HR numbers are tough to ignore:
2005 AGE 18 RK LG 50IP 0HR
2006 AGE 19 MW LG 106IP 2HR (A Ball)
CA LG 52IP 1HR (A+ Ball)
2007 AGE 20 TX LG 153IP 7HR (AA Ball)
TOTALS 361IP 10HR
by ftheyankees on Dec 2, 2007 6:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Derek Lowe?
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not a bad comparison...
Also, Dlowe has been starting for 5 seasons, he's been below average in one of them (2004), average in one of them (2003), and a front of the rotation starter in the other three. Calling him a 3 or 4 is slightly misleading.
by ftheyankees on Dec 2, 2007 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lowe
Perhaps you could post a link for Adenhart ever being the best arm in the country? I don't remember ever reading that.
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Class of 2004
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/leagues/NCAA/031120recruiting100.html
Kind of a fun list to look through. Lots of solid names towards the middle and bottom of the list.
by ftheyankees on Dec 2, 2007 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank You
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You are correct
by ftheyankees on Dec 2, 2007 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
derek lowe is the mid grade
roy halladay is the upside.
variables don't; constants aren't
by overlord on Dec 2, 2007 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mid Grade
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see it
2006 - A - 53% GB rate - 106 IP
2006 - A+- 57% GB rate - 52.1 IP
2007 - AA- 51% GB rate - 153 IP
Webb
2006 - 68% GB
2007 - 64% GB
Halladay
2006 - 60%
2007 - 55%
I don't see him being a groundball pitcher like Webb/Halladay/Hudson/Lowe. Maybe somewhere in the 46-48% GB rate, which seems about average to me.
by omambiyick on Dec 3, 2007 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
by ISC on Dec 2, 2007 9:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Conger
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Respone
He needs to learn to work the zone better, but with his stuff, it's purely a mental rather than physical obstacle.
I see an awful lot of Brandon Webb in this one. If Adenhart works out, that's the type of pitcher he can become: an extreme groundball pitcher with multiple plus secondary pitches.
The injury thing is still something of a concern. I do have questions as to how he's going to hold up, but then again he's managed to throw 150 innings in each of the last two years.
by mrkupe on Dec 2, 2007 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brandon Webb?
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Response
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=444440&tm=ArkTEX&bp=p
(G/F ratio: 1.84, G percentage = 64.8, BABIP .331)
Brandon Webb, 2006
GB percentage: 67.8, BABIP .293 (source: Baseball Prospectus 2007)
Doesn't look like they're all that different to me as far as keeping the ball on the ground. YMMV.
by mrkupe on Dec 2, 2007 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We'll See
For now, it looks like they must be hitting the GB's harder off Adenhart than they are off Webb.
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Unusual?
by ftheyankees on Dec 2, 2007 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Better Than Anyone Else?
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
definition of unusual
by ftheyankees on Dec 2, 2007 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Better
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hey, mrkupe...
To get Adenhart's GB, you did GB/(GB+FB)
For, Webb's GB by BP they did GB/(all balls hit into play)
So, in 2006, using your system, Brandon Webb had...
463 GB - 114 FB
So, his GB/(GB+FB) = 80.2%
If you use all the stats from minorleaguesplits for Adenhart, his GB (using BP's formula) is..
238 GB - 474 total BIP
his GB/BIP is 50.2%.
by omambiyick on Dec 3, 2007 1:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Response
BP has Adenhart's GB percentage from 2006 at 52.5 in the Midwest League and 57.8 in the Cal League. Not quite as glowing as I mistakenly made it out to be, but still well above-average. Also note the extremely low number of HR he gives up . . .basically, he does a pretty dang good job of keeping the ball on the ground, even if I did a poor job of showing it.
As DrB noted, Webb is a special case and I'd be skeptical of projecting Adenhart (or too many pitchers for that matter) to be that sort of perennial Cy Young-level performer; he's the very best there is at what he does. The profiles are remarkably similar, though: heavy fastball with good velocity, nice assortment of secondary pitches.
Of course, Webb also took a while to develop, and wasn't nearly the pitcher in the minors that he's become in the majors. Am I saying that we should take Adenhart to be the same way? Not in the least. But I do think it's a fine example of where patience with a good arm paid off, and compels us to be a little patient here . . .Adenhart certainly has the goods to be excellent once he puts everything together.
by mrkupe on Dec 3, 2007 1:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lightening
Brandon Webb probably wasn't considered much more than a C prospect, and rightfully so. You bet against a guy like Brandon Webb and you'll be right 99 times out of 100.
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 3, 2007 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Side Question on Adenhart
by toonsterwu on Dec 2, 2007 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
their stuff
by SoCalSoxFan on Dec 4, 2007 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sweeney
by krgrecw on Dec 1, 2007 8:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
200 OPS
by ab03 on Dec 1, 2007 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
now
by ab03 on Dec 1, 2007 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Expect...
by SenorGato88 on Dec 1, 2007 8:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Trends
To be fair, Brian has continued to show he can find and develop pitching even without top draft choices and the last two drafts are very encouraging for the future, but the MLB club and high minors are a mess as far as position players go.
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 2, 2007 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still like Wood at #1
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 2, 2007 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Arredondo - why so low?
He has the talent and performed at AA. I would think he would be around the midpoint of this list and even higher if there was no attitude concerns.
BTW - did you hear anything on what the actual situation was that had him sent down?
by pedrophile on Dec 2, 2007 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
RE: Jose Arredondo
Showing up his manager on the field was bad enough, but trying to punch a deaf man widely loved and respected by everyone in the organization was too much to ignore.
I happened to be in Arkansas the day after it happened. Arredondo came to the park the next day and watched the game from behind home plate, but disappeared after that. The front office couldn't make any public announcement as it was up to the Angels to do that. Arredondo was suspended for a week and then demoted to Rancho, where he pitched poorly for the second half.
I had some information on FutureAngels.com about it when it happened but couldn't go into depth out of respect for the Travelers.
by FutureAngels on Dec 2, 2007 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nick Green
by favrerocks on Dec 2, 2007 10:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
green
by John Sickels on Dec 3, 2007 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the response, John
by favrerocks on Dec 3, 2007 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No One Has Really Talked About Him
by Dfarth on Dec 2, 2007 10:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Madrigal??
by John Sickels on Sat Nov 24, 2007 at 12:25:07 PM CDT
You want to give us a hint on him? Im already getting the book, but atleast a little info if you please
by laxtonto on Dec 2, 2007 10:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Angels Fouled Up Madrigal's Paperwork
http://futureangels.mlblogs.com/futureangels/2007/11/whither_warner_.html
It basically boiled down to Warner's six-year free agency came up and Reagins let it pass because he thought he had more time to negotiate. When the error was discovered, the Angels tried to put him on the 40-man roster hoping no one would notice, but when the Rangers inquired MLB voided the transaction. Texas then signed Warner, probably for more money, and put him on their 40-man roster.
by FutureAngels on Dec 2, 2007 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's just asking again
by Brett Perryman on Dec 2, 2007 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
C+
by John Sickels on Dec 3, 2007 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Young-Il Jung
by arsenal on Dec 2, 2007 11:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Young-Il Jung Was Injured
by FutureAngels on Dec 2, 2007 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Young-Il Jung Was Injured
by FutureAngels on Dec 2, 2007 11:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Young-Il Jung Was Injured
by gogotabata on Dec 3, 2007 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs













