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Summary of 2007 draftee pro performance, Round 1

Dr. B. did this last year, and I found it very insightful.  I probably can't match his skill, but it's about time that someone did this, and it's been awhile since I contributed anything besides smartass comments.  So with that, here is Sidd's summary of who did what in 2007, for 1st round picks.  

A few quick notes about the methods:

  • Most of my stats come from Baseball Cube and MILB.com;
  • Additional comments/insights are culled from searches of minor league blogs for particular teams (some of your teams have terrible blog sites - you know who you are!);
  • My grade is based on performance, ARL, and other notes on progress (e.g., Mills working out at 3B) that I can find.  It's not the most important part of the summary, though - My focus, really, was on reporting who played where, and what the results were.
  • My letter grade IS NOT BASED ON UPSIDE!  Vitters getting a lower grade does not mean he's a worse prospect than Kozma - it's just that he performed more poorly than Kozma, given the factors I used above.
  • Please comment on the list, what you'd like to see different for the next round, and offer up any additional insights on guys that I may not have known about (e.g., what happened to Fairly, or whether Arencibia was exclusively at C or 1B).

    2007 pro performance, Round 1 picks

    1.    David Price, LHP, (TB).  DNP - Grade = Incomplete.

    2.    Mike Moustakas, SS (KC).  Held his own over 49 PAs in the Pioneer League, hitting .293/.383..439.822. No HRs., but 5 of 12 hits were for extra bases.  Grade = B+ for living up to expectations in his first taste of pro ball.

    3.    Josh Vitters, 3B (Cubs).  Didn't do much in 58 PAs spread across A- and the instructional league.  Should he have started off in Rookie ball instead of A-?  Grade C- for performance, but he still has time...

    4.    Daniel Moskos, LHP (PIT).  Thought of as a reliever who could move fast after being drafted out of Clemson, he instead proved to be surprisingly hittable at A- (19 H in 13 IP).  The K rate was OK but not overwhelming for a guy of his advanced level, and he yielded another 6 baserunners via BBs.  Overall, a C.  

    5.    Matt Wieters, C (BAL).  Advanced collegiate hitter taken in the hopes he'd move fast.  Didn't play until the HWB league, where he currently looking solid, hitting 315/414/466/880 in 84 PAs.  Also showing good plate discipline, with a 11/7 BB/K ratio.  Like Moustakas, he's looking as good as advertised - Grade = B+, would be higher if he were at a better ARL.

    6.    Ross Detwiler, LHP (WAS).  Threw 130 IP among college, minors, and majors (1 IP) last year, the bulk coming at A+.  Was quite hittable in the minors (38 H in 33 IPs),  with middling peripherals (7.6K & 3.3BB /9 IP), but gets props for jumping in at A+ while other guys like Wieters were opting for HWB.  Grade = B.

    7.    Matt LaPorta, OF, MIL.  Now we're talking!  Crushed the ball at Rookie and A level stops, hitting 304/319/696/1065, with over 60% of his hits going for XBH.  Has tailed off a tad in AFL, but still has an .800+ OPS.  Also has decent reports of ability to play the OF.  Grade = solid A.      

    8.    Casey Weathers, RHP (CO).  The first RHP taken, was drafted as a closer and threw 14 innings between A and A+.  Struck out 19 hitters against only 14 baserunners, and was effectively wild (8 BB and 6 H).  Collegiate vet that clearly overpowered kids in full-season ball, with his biggest challenge coming from himself (control).  Grade = B+, for good results against decent competition ARL, with some control issues.

    9.    Jarrod Parker, RHP (AZ).  Signed in Aug, and I can find no record of him playing in minors or instructionals.  Grade = Incomplete.      

    10.    Madison Bumgarner, LHP (SF).  Same as Parker, signed, but no record of playing.  Grade = Incomplete.

    11.    Phillip Aumont, LHP (SEA), Same as Parker, signed, but no record of playing.  Grade = Incomplete.

    12.    Matt Dominguez, 3B, (FLA).  Signed at deadline, hen was woeful in 59 PAs between Rookie and A-.  Had a .429 OPS, with 2 BB vs. 14Ks.  Grade = C-.

    13.    Beau Mills, 1B (CLE).  NCAA slugger got in a full 245 Abs  among A-, A, and A+, with most coming at A.  Actually hit better at each stop, with a final overall OPS of .760.  Also generated some discussion about a switch to 3B.  Overall, he held his own while possibly increasing his value by moving up the defensive spectrum - Grade = B.

    14.    Jason Heyward, OF (ATL).  Once again, the Braves snag a local kid who looks like the real deal.  Heyward, at age-17, got 46 PAs in the Rookie League, hitting 302/354/488/842, solid numbers for a 17-yr-old.  Grade = B+.

    15.    Devin Mesoraco, C (CIN).  152 PAs in Rookie ball, posting a scrawny .580 OPS.  Did have a decent walk rate, though (15).  Was praised for defense coming into the draft, but don't know how that panned out in 2007.  Overall grade = C+.

    16.    Kevin Ahrens, 3B (TOR).  Got off to a weak start in Rookie ball, but had a strong final month, posting a .760 OPS and an 11/14 BB/K rate.  Grade = B.

    17.    Blake Beavan, RHP (TEX).  Same as Parker, signed, but no record of playing.  Grade = Incomplete.

    18.    Pete Kozma, SS (STL).  Spread among 3 levels in 2007.  He held is own (.746 OPS) in the Appy league (where he received most of his ABs), but struggled when moved up to A- for 8 games (.401 OPS).  Interestingly, made a lot of errors, despite being drafted as an SS with strong skills across the board. Grade = B, for holding steady in full-season Rookie ball.

    19.    Joe Savery, LHP (PHI).  OK but not outstanding at A-; 1.33 WHIP, with a 22/13 K/BB ratio in 26 IP.  Is currently struggling with control in AFL (4 BB / 9 K).  No gopher balls yet as a pro, however.  Grade = B-.

    20.    Chris Withrow, RHP (LAD).  Only 9 innings pitched, all in Rookie league, but did K 13 against 4 BB.  Grade = B.  

    21.    JP Arencibia, C/1B (TOR).  Logged a healthy 63 games at A- Auburn, where he struggled early, but hit much better in August (.800 OPS).  Grade = B.  Not sure if he has stuck at C or not.

    22.    Tim Alderson, LHP (SF).  Got in 3 games (5 IP), but made the most, with 12K, 4 H, and 0 BB and 0 ER.  Grade = B+, with limited sample caveat.

    23.    Nick Schmidt, LHP (SD).  Surgery this summer, grade = incomplete.

    24.    Michael Main, RHP (TEX).  Intriguing 2-way player, was moved to pitching full-time by Rangers and held up well.  Over 28 IP split between Rookie and A-, allowed 36 baserunners while striking out 34 (with 13 BB).  Also outhit half the highschoolers drafted this round, posting a .625 OPS in Rookie Ball, with a 10% walk rate.  LET THE KID HIT!  Grade = B+, with bonus points for moving up to A-.    

    25.    Aaron Poreda, LHP, CHW.  Young (20) NCAA draftee, was held in Rookie Ball, but dominated with 39 baserunners in 46 IP, with a 48/10 K/BB ratio.  Has concerns about his secondary offerings, but you can't fault his performance where he was assigned in 2007.  As a starter, opponents hit .171 off him, and he average nearly 5 IP per start.  Grade = B+, but only because of low level of competition.  

    26.    James Simmons, RHP, OAK.  Thrown into the fire after 130 IP in the NCAA, this 20-year old logged another 30 IP in AA and is now in the AFL.  Slightly hittable in AA (36 H in 30 IP), but with the good control (23/8 K/BB ratio) befitting a guy drafted as a good-command hurler.  Also looking good in the AFL, after what has been a very long season.  Grade = B+, with decent peripherals augmented by high level of competition.  

    27.    Rick Porcello, RHP (DET).  Signed with DET, but not in time to pitch.  Currently driving Minor League Ball bloggers crazy with their inability t0 match reputation with results.  

    28.    Ben Revere, OF (MIN).  At last, the Twins have found a replacement for Kirby Puckett.   Speed guy looked good in 50 games at Rookie GCL league, hitting 325/388/461/849.  Hit an impressive 10 triples, ad swiped 21 bases, while walking in 13 of 200 PAs.  Overall, good start, at a suitable ARL.  Grade = B+.

    29.    Wendell Fairly, RHP (SF).  Did he sign?  Grade = incomplete.

    30.    Andrew Brackman, LHP (NYY).  Grabbed by Yankees, then by surgeons as he underwent TJ surgery and is out for a year.

    Summary:

    A  = 1 (LaPorta)
    B+ = 9 (Moustakas, Wieters, Weathers, Alderson, Main, Poreda, Simmons, Revere, Heyward)
    B  = 6 (Kozma, Detwiler, Mills, Ahrens, Withrow, Arencibia)
    B- = 1 (Savery)
    C+ = 1 (Mesoraco)
    C =  1 (Moskos)
    C- = 2 (Vitters, Dominguez)
    INC - injured = 2 (Schmidt, Brackman)
    INC - DNP = 6 (Price, Parker, Bumgarner, Beavan, Aumont, Fairly?)

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