MLB Draft Fantasy Redux + stuff

by wildthang on Nov 7, 2007 5:04 AM EST Comment 25 comments

Hey all, I am beating around the bush with some HW right now so I figured I could distract myself more doing this.

Basically, I've seen a couple diaries lately that had pieces of what I've been wanting to post about, but they didn't have the complete goal I had in mind. What I want to do is to rank a relevant portion of the 2007 draft, with fantasy purposes in mind. I think its very interesting to look at because our perspective changes a lot when looking at almost every player. Please don't blast me for posting a "fantasy" diary. I think this can inspire discussion just as much as anything.

I just want to see people rank their top 20 (or more if you feel like it) with a fantasy focus. Do you prefer long-term projects or someone closer to the majors? (ie lincecum vs kershaw last year). How important is position? Is Daniel Moskos going to be the lights out middle reliever the Pirates so desperately needed at #4 and will he set the all time holds stat record?

I'll go ahead and rank mine in a second. The stuff part of the title has to do with our offseason top prospects list. The WS is over and I am ready to go. I am ready to have at it with you all over our lists.

So here is how I think fantasy value shakes out with regards to the mlb draft.

1.Matt Weiters
2.David Price
3.Matt Laporta
4.Mike Moustaks
5.Rick Porcello
6.Ross Detweiler
7.Jarrod Parker
8.Beau Mills
9.Jason Heyward
10.Madison Bumgarner
11.Nick Schmidt
12.Josh Vitters
13.Matt Dominguez
14.Phil Aumont
15.Devin Mesoraco
16.Joe Savery
17.Blake Beaven
18.Kevin Ahrens (just a guess putting him here)
19.Wendell Fairley
20.James Simmons

What do we think? A top 15 probably would have been better but whatever.

0 recs | Comment 25 comments

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Comments

ahaha

this is a great topic and have a lot to say about it. sadly, i'm not at liberty to speak because half my league reads this site and our draft isn't until january.

sigh.

by wily mo on Nov 7, 2007 8:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

hmmm....

do I need to factor this into your posts accordingly? Any misdirections you plan on throwing out there :) ?

by siddfynch on Nov 7, 2007 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh no

i'm not gonna play any games. not my style. there's just stuff i can't talk about right now. namely, this stuff.

by wily mo on Nov 7, 2007 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stuff

We don't read this site, go ahead. :-)

by GregJP on Nov 7, 2007 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd move Heyward up

to six probably. Also, I would move Vitters up a bit.

Check out MVN.com/mlb-braves for the best Braves coverage

by was385 on Nov 7, 2007 8:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like

the subject as well, and am not afraid to speak out here because 1/2 of my league reads this site as well. My problem with your list is the weighing of Ross Detwiler so high. As a pitcher who plays for perhaps the worst run organization in the NL, his impact will be simewhat limited and therefore I don't believe he belongs on this list at all. I am agreeable with Wieters, LaPorta, and Moustakas, but my list would look like this and then I will get into the reasons why:
Wieters
Moustakas
LaPorta
Heyward
Josh Vitters
Beau Mills
David Price
Rick Porcello
Matt Dominquez
Devin Mesocaro
Aaron Poreda

Wieters - I love the make-up. He is a future conerstone in Baltimore, and they may even make room in 08 at the trade deadline to bring him up.
Moustakas - Farther away, but may have a higher ceiling in terms of hitting. Raw power is tremendous and will hit for high average as well. He may stick at SS as well, which would make him almost as valuable as Wieters, in terms of rotisserie.

Heyward - Advanced hitter for a high school kid. Has plus power and a ready made arm for RF in the bigs.

While I also like Price and Porcello, the AL East and Central divisions have a way of grinding out most rookie pitchers and making starters earn their stripes. Although recent memory breaks that trend with the emergence of Verlander, Papelbon, Chamberlain and Buchholz this year, they are the exception and I think it is exceptionally risky to start expecting others to do it on a regular basis.

Great topic and let's discuss this thing to death until the draft next spring!

by thomasps3 on Nov 7, 2007 9:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps in the past

My problem with your list is the weighing of Ross Detwiler so high. As a pitcher who plays for perhaps the worst run organization in the NL, his impact will be simewhat limited and therefore I don't believe he belongs on this list at all

I do not agree with this statement in any way, shape or form. Over the last two drafts, the Nationals have arguably had the among the best overall hauls. While the organization under MLB stewardship was poorly run, since their move to Washington they have made serious strides towards respectability. They are still a #20-25 organization in terms of overall talent but there is no way they are the worst run NL organization

by NFA Brian on Nov 7, 2007 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chez

Within the frameowrks of this question, Ross Detwiler is a guy who shouldn't have seen the light of day in the bigs this year. Despite his struggles in the Carolina League, Bowden called him up, skipping him right past AA just so he could get a taste of the bigs. Effectively, Detwiler is at least 2 years away from being rewady to pitch in the bigs, and rushing pitchers is a surefire way to wreck a promising career, especially if they elect to keep him up in 2008. And what can we reasonably expect if they do? That is the question within this framework that we must ask, and wy I don't believe he belongs on this list, especially when you factor in the lack of quality lefthanded pitching that was available in this draft.

Where would you put him? Let's keep this thing going!

by thomasps3 on Nov 7, 2007 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rushing him up to the bigs?

He pitched one inning.

I don't see what that has to do with how the pace him.

I'd guess he starts in AA next year.

by phantom on Nov 7, 2007 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Detwiler's ranking

While #6 might be too high (I'd put him in the 11-15 range), the rushing it thing isn't part of the equation. He was just given a cup of coffee to show off the shiny new toy to the Nationals fans. I don't believe it hurt his development to get the rookie hazing treatment. The arguments people bring up about service time don't really matter either, since if Detwiler hasn't secured a MLB roster spot within three years, there are bigger concerns than arbitration/service time.

I don't believe he'll be on the roster in 2008. He seems most likely to be pitching the season in Harrisburg. Only if he demonstrates on the field will he get promoted (a la John Lannan by the Nationals in 2007).

by NFA Brian on Nov 7, 2007 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good points

about Porcello and Price. I think its very valid.

I just think its hard to quantify how much it actually should factor in to the rankings. Its difficult to really say how much of an impact it can have especially in fantasy where a pitcher might be brilliant in facing one team, and then he pitches against the same team a week later and looks totally out of his league.

by wildthang on Nov 7, 2007 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

Hard for me to agree with this. The organization is poorly run, and therefore a pitcher can't be among the 10 best prospects from the draft? Really? So if Josh Beckett had put up his 2000 numbers for the 2007 Nationals, he couldn't be top-10 material? And/or, you could confidently say he'd never have developed?

Detwiler looked just fine in 2007, and nobody can say what changes the Nats will have made by the time his development clock starts to run out. That's even assuming you are correct that they can't nurture talent, which I''m not sure is an absolute certainty - poor recent track record, yes, but the absence of proof is not proof of absence.

by siddfynch on Nov 7, 2007 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Burgess?

Going into last season he was one of the most highly regarded HS hitters. He had a below expectation senior year and dropped out of the first round. However, he faired very well in his limited pro ABs.

Could wildthang or thomasps3 comment as to why they think he does not belong in the top 20?

by cooper7d7 on Nov 7, 2007 9:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

probably oversight

I only took a cursory look beyond the first round.It was late.

my bad.

by wildthang on Nov 7, 2007 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Michael Burgess

I don't know that he would be a top 10 guy, but for sure a top 15-20.

My list:
Matt Weiters
David Price
Rick Porcello (a stud but a few years away)
Matt Laporta (better than Porcello for the short term, but not for his career)
Mike Moustakas
Beau Mills
Jason Heyward
Jarrod Parker
Josh Vitters
Ross Detweiler
Madison Bumgarner
Michael Burgess
Matt Dominguez
Phillipe Aumont
Devin Mesoraco
Blake Beaven
Michael Main
Kevin Ahrens
Todd Frazier
Julio Borbon

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 7, 2007 9:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

With Burgess

Well, the splits I looked into seemingly indicate a contact issue. He started out on fire in rookies, but after roughly 130 ABs, he was advanced to Vermont of the New York Penn League, where his contact rate really was exposed. His line in Vermont:
70ABs/23Ks

is something that needs to be addressed as he continues to climb the Nats system.

However, with that being said, I do believe he is 1st round material, but if I am comparing him to a Jason Heyward type, which is the closest comparison I can think of in this draft, I am picking Heyward seven days a week and twice on Sunday over Michael Burgess.

Where do you put him in the mix?

by thomasps3 on Nov 7, 2007 9:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

MB

Heyward is ahead of Burgess, however, Burgess is in the top 20, probably #11. Yes he struggled in the NYPL, as an 18YO going against what, mostly college guys and some great HS arms from the previous draft.

by cooper7d7 on Nov 7, 2007 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Alderson?

Amazing control. Deceptive delivery. Several "could move quickly" comments.

What's not to like?

by cooper7d7 on Nov 7, 2007 9:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not A Bad List

I'm pretty sure Nick Schmidt had some arm problems though. And, since his ceiling was somewhat limited anyways, I'd bump him down - probably out of the top 20.

by Dfarth on Nov 7, 2007 10:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Elbow surgery

Nick Schmidt (Padres) & Andrew Brackman (Yanks) both had elbow surgery and will miss the entire 2008 season.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 7, 2007 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

knew that about Brackman and not about Schmidt.

Sorry.

by wildthang on Nov 7, 2007 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My own list

Price
Wieters
Porcello
LaPorta
Moustakas
Heyward
Mills
Vitters
Parker
Bumgarner
Aumont
Burgess
Detweiler
Main
Ahrens
Alderson
Mesoraco
Dominguez
Beaven
Poreda

There are clear dropoffs IMO on this list. The drop from 2 to 3 is substantial due to the various risks with Porcello (far away, injury potential, etc.) that come with every other HS pitcher, and the dropoff from 12 to 13 is every bit as large. I don't see much of a difference at all between #13 and #19.

by guru4u on Nov 7, 2007 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Parker and Bumgarner

Did they throw a professional pitch in 2007?

I have a hard time accepting them in a top-10 when they are all-velocity, no-secondary offering type of 18-yr-olds. The road to baseball Hell is littered with the carcasses of hard-throwing teenagers that never developed more than a show-me secondary pitch. If the draft were to be run again, would they even still go in the top-10? It's hard for me to believe that out of the next 10000 guys drafted in 2007, there weren't 10 that were enough of a revelation after signing that they'd bump these guys down few spots. There're always a few guys like a Joba Chamberlain or Colby Rasmus that show right away that they should have gone top-10 that year.

by siddfynch on Nov 7, 2007 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

a tier list

too early to sit in judgement of early results, just going off potential, upside etc.

Group A (can't miss, perennial all-stars)

Matt Weiters - position scarcity plus great make-up
David Price - poise, power, and a LH
Jason Heyward - already has plate discipline + premium power

Group B (all-stars at their peaks)

Mike Moustakas - tempted to put him in A, need to see more, unlimited potential
Matt Laporta - ugh on D, nice power stroke
Rick Porcello - great stuff (3 pitches already) but so young ...
Matt Dominguez - shouldn't overlook the D, bat was ahead of teammate Moustakas not too long ago
Beau Mills - questions re: competition not necessarily talent
Jarrod Parker - bigtime heat, smooth delivery
Michael Main - wish he would play a reg. pos., steal of draft, great athlete

Group C (maybe all-stars once or twice, but holes in their games)

Josh Vitters - needs strength, plate discipline will be esp. huge for him
Blake Beaven - mechanics an issue but great poise
Ross Detweiler - tall & lanky, deceptively quick, control ?
Phil Aumont - big frame, very raw
Michael Burgess - defines light tower power; another where plate discipline will be huge
Madison Bumgarner - big & smooth, but no secondary pitches
Casey Weathers - nasty stuff, can he handle the pressure of closing

Group D (haven't seen enough to say), listed in no particular order
Nick Schmidt
Devin Mesoraco
Joe Savery
Kevin Ahrens
Wendell Fairley
James Simmons

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Nov 7, 2007 5:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I feel like

Nick Noonan should be on everyone's top 20 lists. He had a great debut .316 .357 .451 with 18 stolen bases too.

2b thins out pretty quickly and if Noonan can hit for average at the top of the Giants lineup and combine that with 10 - 15 homer and 20 - 25 steal seasons he could be a huge asset at a tough position to find stars.

by kaisertown on Nov 9, 2007 1:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs