Astro analysis has got me thinking...

by Lt Melmo on Nov 30, 2007 1:42 AM EST

Over the next ten years, given:

a. current MLB talent
b. current organizational talent
c. current organizational philosophy

which teams will have the worst overall records?

Of course it's hard to predict GM firings or ownership changes, but given the current circumstances, who's setting themselves up the worst?

It has to be the Giants and Astros for me.

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Tampa Bay...

I can already imagine people posting in 2015 saying "In two years, we'll be competing!" I don't see them being able to sign any great free agents and I still have my doubts how many above average MLBers their "great system" will produce.

I think you're spot on with your Giants pick, not sure about your Astros one. I would normally pick KC here, but I like where that team is heading. Pittsburgh may not be in a good place, neither will Cinci if Baker stays around long. Baltimore I see having problems since they want to try to do it the old Yankee way, but can't get the quality free agents in there on a regular basis, don't draft especially great, and now seem to want to trade their best pitcher when he just starts to come into his own.

I also see Oakland continuing to go downhill. Beane is a genius, but needs to find another way to build. Now so many teams are looking for the same players he used to pick up later in the draft, so Oakland can't get them. Also, add the Nationals to the list unless they can draft and produce some top notch starting pitching.

"Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young and 11 Tim Lincecums." -uga007

by Boxkutter on Nov 30, 2007 1:35 AM EST reply actions

Rays...

With the pitching talent in their system I can't see them not competing in the next 3-4 years.

And as a Baltimore fan, I can say with some confidence that Angelos has been convinced that a youth movement is needed. Which is why we're about to trade away Tejada and Bedard (hopefully) for boatloads. Angelos was the one that personally finished the Wieters deal in the 11th hour. We're not going to even try for any big FA signings this offseason, type A-B's all seem out of the question. Whether the O's turn it around is beyond me but if they struggle it isn't for the reasons you listed.

by Lt Melmo on Nov 30, 2007 1:42 AM EST up reply actions

And about Bedard...

To not trade him this offseason would be a huge mistake. We're not able to work out an extension, probably because he's implied very heavily that he wants out of here. And there's no way we compete with him over the next two years. I love seeing him pitch and I love having a Cy contender, but I would be extremely pissed if he's here opening day.

by Lt Melmo on Nov 30, 2007 1:44 AM EST up reply actions

Heh

Call up whoever misses out on Johan.

Man, it would be kinda sick if the Yanks and Sox both added a Santana or Bedard this off-season.

by mraver on Nov 30, 2007 7:27 AM EST up reply actions

opening the wallet (tampa bay)

if the rays are willing to spend a similar amount of money as the average team, they will be able to sign free agents. maybe they wont be able to compete with the yanks and red sox, but they could be competitive in the overall sense.

by dmb60614 on Nov 30, 2007 9:37 AM EST up reply actions

Astros

I can't say it's that close either.

by doublestix on Nov 30, 2007 1:43 AM EST reply actions

Assuming

that all GMs stayed the same and philosophies stayed the same for the next 10 years, I'd say the Mariners would be near the worst as well. But it's not as if those assumptions are anywhere near close to true, and with how frequently GMs and owners and philosophies change these days, it's almost foolish to look at this as more than a year to year proposition.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Nov 30, 2007 3:04 AM EST reply actions

As a Giants & Astros fan,

I find this thread depressing.

Curtis Granderson fan

by jrose643 on Nov 30, 2007 7:21 AM EST reply actions

Keep The Faith

I agree that the 'stros look bad as far as the eye can see.

The Giants are in a lot of trouble for the short term, but since this is projecting over the next 10 years, I don't think things are so bad.

They have strong, young pitching staff, with several high ceiling pitchers still in the minors. They had a strong infusion of high ceiling talent from the 2007 draft and hold the #5 draft pick in the 2008 draft. They have a revived international program with one of the brightest young bats in the minors in Angel Villalona, who Jim Callis recently predicted would be the first player born after 1990 to reach the majors.

Look for a Giants rebound as early as 2010.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 30, 2007 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

+1 on SF

One of the things some of the people in this thread have missed is how much $$$ the Giants have to spend. So as long as they keep that core of pitching talent and sign a couple big bats, they are back and competitive again.

by guru4u on Nov 30, 2007 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

Pittsburgh

No FA's worth a crap will come here. We don't spend the money to get even decent players during FA. No players believe we have a desire to win, so they won't come here. Our drafts have been garbage. WE don't have the monsy to compete with signing international talent against clubs like the Mets and Yankees. We even have to draft based on the price tag attached to the prospect, not on who the best player is at the pick we have each year. Seeing a trend here?

this franchise is screwed

my poor poor pirates...

Charlie

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Nov 30, 2007 7:26 AM EST reply actions

new GM

offers a little hope, way more than Houston, to me.

by t ball on Nov 30, 2007 8:02 AM EST up reply actions

please

Houston has more money, more population, and can easily lure more lucrative FA's there than pittsburgh can. I mean, this is a team that was in the World Series only 2 years ago.

Do they have a bad farm system? yes. But man, you guys are really overreacting. I don't feel you fully understand what it takes to sustain losing over a decade and a half. Again...look at the pirates.

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Nov 30, 2007 8:09 AM EST up reply actions

Come around

I actually think the Pirates are pretty close to coming around. By 2009, you'll have a (hopefully) productive infield that includes Sanchez, Walker, and LaRoche, and the outfield will have McCutchen and Bay, who should bounce back somewhat. Paulino's not great, but he's not chopped liver. And none of this mentions Steven Pearce, who looks like he's gonna hit whether anybody likes it or not (I've done a 180 on him, personally). So, I mean, there's some young talent in the lineup. Those are all guys who look to be at least better than average players, meaning a floor of a better than average lineup.

Combine this with some great, just great, young arms already getting established in the Majors like Snell and Gorzelanny, and I think there's plenty of upside to the Pirates. There's even the chance that Zach Duke figures it out, and puts it all back together. Is it going to happen next year? Probably not. But this is definitely a team on the rise, at least in my eyes. The question is whether or not ownership will spend to retain talent like Sanchez and LaRoche as they hit FA (or upgrade via FA) to bolster the homegrown talent.

I don't think the Pirates have the juice to be a champion in the near future, but they should AT LEAST get over 500 for a few years, starting in a few years.

by GuyinNY on Nov 30, 2007 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

Baltimore

They're almost as hopeless as the teams mentioned above, but have the added bonus of playing in the AL East. Not only do Boston, NY, and Toronto have winning records (and the first two have learned to spend money on the draft), but Tampa Bay is about to start winning.

They're going to have to trade Bedard or waste his prime.

Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Nov 30, 2007 8:11 AM EST reply actions

I am not impressed with the Cardinals

for a top tier team their attempts to address their problems reek. Juan Encarnacion, Eckstein, Kennedy, Looper, Piniero were all less than inspired moves. This off season they've been linked to Lohse and Silva and Uribe or Izturis. Other than Rasmus, they have little potential in their farm system, and what pitchers they develop either get hurt or are mishandled by Duncan. I know Jockety is gone, but the Mulder trade was an absolute disaster. They got lucky and won a WS which will make many people overlook their flaws, but this is not a well run franchise.

by vaclipper on Nov 30, 2007 8:15 AM EST reply actions

ehhhh...

Adam Wainwright had a very solid year. Ryan Franklin easily turned in the best performance of his career. Jason Isringhausen was back in a big way.

You're talking crap on Looper, but this is a guy who posted a 1.34 WHIP in 175 IP and won 12 games. What are you expecting? Cy Young numbers? even Piniero had a 1.39 WHIP, which is plenty good for a middle relief pitcher.

Critisize management, fine. Critisize LaRussa, go ahead. But leave Duncan alone, any team would be lucky to have his assistance as a pitching coach.

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Nov 30, 2007 8:35 AM EST up reply actions

I didn't criticize Duncan

for how he handles veterans. I was questioning how he handles prospects, which raises questions about whether or not the player development staff is in tune with the major league coaches. Duncan actually does a good job turning around washed up/injured pitchers. However, I think this results in the team settling for marginal pitchers on the belief that they can turn them around. Do you honestly think that Piniero, Franklin, Springer, Looper, etc will repeat their performance? And even if they do, what's their upside? You're talking a staff of 4-5 starters, with a high risk of failure/injury.

Unless they can start to develop some front line pitching, relying on luck to find Chris Carpenters is just not a winning strategy IMO. They have a very high payroll consisting of a lot of 3 to 5 million mediocrities. I just do not see them keeping up with the Brewers and Cubs unless they do a better job of developing front line talent.

by vaclipper on Nov 30, 2007 8:53 AM EST reply actions

Too many variables to predict

You have to calculate in injuries, bad contracts, prospects going boom.

The Astros definitely have some work to do but Wade & Smith have done some quick work at righting the ship. I don't think they will be down for 10 years. 4 to 5 maybe.

by Duman on Nov 30, 2007 9:31 AM EST reply actions

The stros are seriously doomed...

here's what I wrote to a different baseball list regarding their impending signing of Matsui:

HELL YEAH! Finally, we get to roll into FA and pluck out a legit badass! I through with this worthless rumor that Coors inflates stats, that's just a bunch of stathead nonsense! Who cares if he had a 649 OPS on the road and 863 OPS at home?! I mean what the hell is OPS anyway?!

Youth movement? WE AINT GOT TIME FOR NO YOUTH MOVEMENT! WE"RE GOING TO THE SERIES! WHOOO HOOO!

Draft Bonuses....$0
Signing aging Brocail, the middle reliever who will anchor our staff...$2.5 million
Signing badasses like Matsui...$15 million
The joy of watching another train wreck of an Astro off-season....PRICELESS!

by beastball on Nov 30, 2007 10:08 AM EST reply actions

Not that bad

You can tell by my moniker where I'm coming from, but the Astros won't be the worst (or among the worst) over the next decade. I'm not a big fan of the Matsui deal, but most of the moves aren't long-term moves and aren't going to hinder payroll or roster flexibility. Other factors to consider:

They have a solid core to build on. Berkman, Oswalt, and Lee are all All-Star caliber players and locked up for 4+ more seasons. Pence could play in a few Mid-Summer Classics over the next decade, also.
Building from the inside out is a priority and they've overhauled the scouting department this offseason. They've brought in guys from successful farm systems like the Brewers (Bobby Heck, Jim Stevenson), named a new Latin director Felix Francisco (signed guys like Furcal, Capellan, and Marte), and are establishing a presence in the Pacific Rim.
They have resources. They have plenty of wiggle room financially. They could afford to drop $20M/yr on a SP next season.

The organization was a mess when Wade inherited it. I'm not a fan of every move he's made, but overall the organization is headed in a better direction than it was 2 months ago.

I don't expect us to challenge for the pennant next year, but if we get a decent closer (Gagne or trade) and can sign one more SP (preferably a reclamation guy with upside), we'll be closer to a .500 club than we were this year. We could even reach .500 if we're lucky.

by astrosfan76 on Nov 30, 2007 12:38 PM EST reply actions