fantasy trade help

by manny59 on Nov 29, 2007 6:13 PM EST Comment 22 comments

i just got offered josh hamilton,daric barton,chuch lofgren or cj wilson for alex rios

this is a 20 team keeper league
i finished middle in the standings with my team

i really need a 1B
i have dan johnson there right now hahaha

and an OF of chris young in center, willingham at LF, and rios at RF

i like hamiltons upside alot but his health issues scare me and i think very highly of barton
lofgren i dont know much about except his been pretty good in the minors so far int he indians system

some help or input would be GREATLY APPRECIATED

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Keep Rios

I'[m not a fantasy player, but in real life, I keep Rios. He's the best player of the lot and he's just entering his prime years on an upward trajectory.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 29, 2007 6:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Easy

If he changed the word OR to AND, I might think about it. Otherwise, NFW.

by rhd on Nov 29, 2007 6:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thanks

ya iv fallen in love with rios
i was thinking of trading him last year than i just stuck with him and he had a huge year

i really appreciate the advice

by manny59 on Nov 29, 2007 6:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Keep Rios. If you are gonna trade Rios, get a 1B'men will a little better power. Barton, while pretty good in real baseball, just won't be top tier in fantasyland

by dlpme77 on Nov 29, 2007 6:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fantasy Terms

Like DrB, I've never been big on fantasy until recently. However, I'd say that you have 20 overall spots on your team(around) and the idea would be to consolidate talent.

Unless you are really high on two of these guys that their talent combinde will be worth more than the value of Rios I woudln't do it. That said..

This is a horrible deal. Hamilton is ok, but he is probably near the bottom half of the 60 OFers starting in your league. While Rios is top 5 in value (Sizemore, Rios, Upton, Holliday, Crawford, in no order).

Lofgren is pretty far away while having a down year this season.

Wilson is youngish and had a good year but he is a RP and unless he is closing next season he'll be rather usless fantasy wise.

Barton had a nice call up but will he produce enough for a first baseman in fantasy? I don't think so and even if he does keep a job he wont help your HR RBI or TB as much as the league average first baseman.

I would not do this deal because you are adding players who don't help you now, nor are they gaurnteed to help in the future even if they reach their ceilings. Rios is 26 and is far enough from FA(2011) that this deal is a horrible one.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Nov 29, 2007 6:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

talent consolidation is where it's at. The only thing that deal does is ensure that you continue to finish in the middle of the pack.

You need to be the one who is proposing 3-for-1 or 4-for-1 deals to try and get the best players possible for each slot, not the other way around. Then you go out and fill the holes created by trading multiple players with young talent with upside through waiver pick-ups. Once in a while you get lucky and pick up someone who breaks out. If you think they're a fluke - sell high.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Nov 29, 2007 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by Yakker on Nov 29, 2007 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hamilton's health issues

as someone who owns both Hamilton and Rios in a 16 team keeper league, i was was wondering if anyone has any additional info (other that what is easily availabe via a Google search) about Hamilton's non-drug health issues. Any cause for concern that he'll be the next Rocco Baldelli?

by zimm on Nov 29, 2007 6:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If it's me

I wouldn't do that trade. I'm not entirely sure if I'm reading the offer correctly, but I think you're saying you've been offered Hamilton, Barton and Lofgren/Wilson for Rios. I guess a lot depends upon your pitching needs. Lofgren is a nice prospect and could be a valuable starter down the road. Wilson, as a reliever, isn't even in the discussion.

As for Hamilton, he scares me a bit. Yes, he had a nice comeback year this season, but can he replicate it? I'd like to see one more season like that before buying fully into it. Barton could also be a nice player, but Rios is far more rounded (giving you some SBs). In a nutshell, I just don't see those guys as being much of an upgrade, and it looks like more of a quantity for quality trade to me.

"A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day." - Calvin

by RVachon on Nov 29, 2007 7:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes and No

Talent consolidation is hugely important. You'd much rather have 1 A+ guy than 3 B-or-C guys. However, you've got to buy low and sell high too. I think the posts so far have undervalued Hamilton. If he's being offered and you can get him cheaply, do it. He's not a young prospect anymore, therefore he won't get too much love on this site. But he's got tons of upside.

by my dixie wrecked on Nov 29, 2007 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Meh...

I think the best is yet to come for Hamilton, but even so, he's going to be 27 next year and I think missing that much time will limit just how high he can get. OK, that was terrible pun.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Nov 29, 2007 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if so

then how was he so amazing coming straight from a month of A ball after 4 years out of baseball?

The guy is more talented than Delmon or just about any young hitter IMO. There is serious health risk and drug relapse. But he has far higher upside as well.

by pedrophile on Nov 29, 2007 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sample size

and injury concern me. He put up some great stats - but it was 300 AB's. The scouting report is still being built on this guy. It's not out of the realm of possibility something in his game at the plate gets exposed and pitchers start eating him alive. It's also possible he hits 45 bombs next year. I think it will be somewhere in between and it's admittedly more of a gut call that Rios will be the better player long term.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Nov 29, 2007 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hamilton

I've watched him a lot this past year. Well, a lot considering how much he actually played. They adjusted to him but he was able to hit pitches just about anywhere in the zone with authority. And he has a solid eye at the plate. The only thing that I see him having a problem with for a while is against lefties.

Rios is the safer bet by far. And straight-up I'd probably trade Hamilton for Rios to minimize risk even though I like Hamilton more. But adding the other players tips it for me.

by pedrophile on Nov 29, 2007 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

it's most certainly defensible to make that trade, but I don't think I would. I would at least make a counter if that was his opening offer - chances are he can squeeze a bit more out of it if that's the case - anyone with brains doesn't float their best offer out there as an opener.

Send your top 50-100 prospects to slurveone@yahoo.com!!!

by slurve on Nov 29, 2007 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

counter

totally agreed.

IMO you can't just do deals based on your own value. If you do this deal then as soon as Josh gets hot next season people will be going crazy over him. His value should go through the roof. Then you trade him selling him as the next Manny or whatever.

by pedrophile on Nov 30, 2007 12:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i like it

I prefer Hamilton over Rios.

by pedrophile on Nov 29, 2007 7:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I'd say that Hamilton/Rios is close enough that I'd make the deal. (and I'm a Jays fan)

by GregJP on Nov 29, 2007 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

questions

two questions before i can offer any meaningful advice.

what is your league scoring format? is it h2h, rotissarie, some other format, standard 5x5?
do you win by finishing first in the regular season, or are there x amount of teams that make it to the playoffs and then the winner there wins it all?

by bk11 on Nov 29, 2007 8:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ur question

its 20 team keeper h2h
6 teams make it to the playoffs and i came in 7th place last year and missed the playoffs by 3 points

well some more advice would b appriciated
wut do u guys think about franklin guitterez? i jus aquired him in my league for kaz matsui
haha i thought it was a huge steal

by manny59 on Nov 29, 2007 9:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clarify

I think it would help if you clarified what the trade offer is. Did you mean Young for 1) Hamilton, 2) D. Barton and 3) either Lofgren or Wilson?

by rhd on Nov 29, 2007 9:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

reply

with your league settings i would just sit on rios (i'm assuming standard 5*5, and that you're not sitting on a surplus in sb). i think the trade is balanced, in that the expected returns are roughly the same. what is different is the range capabilities of the players involved. rios will continue to improve a bit every year for the next few years.

that said, if you were aiming for the no.1 spot i'd make the trade because the potential payoffs are large, but gives you more risk.

by bk11 on Nov 29, 2007 9:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs