FanPost

2007 draftee pro performance, Supplemental Round (w/ poll)

OK, here's the supplemental round, which turned out to be even longer than Round 1 in  2007.  As before, the stats are from BB Cube and from MiLB.com, with supplemental info from blog sites and pre-draft reports.

As before, I have assigned grades, but I think the real value is just in knowing where the guys played, and what kind of numbers they put up.  These grades are also strictly performance-related, and don't factor in ceiling or overall outlook as a prospect - they are all about stats, as modified by ARL.

filler
Finally, when prepping for this, I caught myself wondering how many rounds to do this for - e.g., where is the point of diminishing returns?

With that, I went to three years of BA top 50 lists to see how different rounds contributed to the Top-50 lists.  I spaced these 4 years out to reduce confounding factors of players showing up on 2 or more lists (e.g., Delmon Young 3 straight years), which weeded out all redundancy except for Michael "the perennial prospect" Cuddyer, who made the list in both '99 and 2003.  I'll try to post the graphic in the thread below.

As I see it, the take-home message is that it's a lot of work for little return to do this beyond the 2nd round - fewguys after that make teh top-50, and those that do pretty much come from all walks - rounds 3, 4, 5, but also 16 (Chris Young), 31 (Travis Hafner), etc.

Of course, this entire graphic assumes that BA is not biased towards high  draftees in the first place - which, of course, they are.  But you can factor that in as you please.

2007 pro performance, Supplemental picks

31.    Josh Smoker, LHP, (WA).  HS player, still just 18, threw just 4 innings in the NYPL league (low A).  Grade = Incomplete.

32.    Nick Noonan, 2B (SF).  HS player, lefty hitter, hit 316/357/451/808 over 206 ABs in Rookie ball, with good peripherals and speed (12BB, 20K, 18SB, 3CS).  Came into draft with questions about whether his arm could  handle SS, and he indeed split his pro time between SS and 2B.  Grade =  B+.  Doesn't even turn 19 until May 2008.

33.    Jon Gilmore, 3B, (ATL).  HS draftee who got 162 ABs in Rookie Ball in 2007.  Hit 284/296/346/692, with 4 BB and 28 Ks.  Not sure how his defense looked, but his bat was supposed to be stronger than glove at draft time.  Grade = C for being a bit underwhelming, especially with the lack of power and slight regression in stats over course of season.

34.    Todd Frazier, SS, CIN. College draftee who had a solid 160ABs in Rookie Ball, then cranked 2 HR in 22 ABs at A ball (MW league).  Overall line of 319/405/538/943, with 20 BB and 26K.  Apparently stayed as SS, despite claims he'd need to shift to 3B.  Grade = B, as a 21-yr-old playing in RK ball. I'm guessing "FrazierFan" can tell us more about this guy.

35.    Julio Borbon, OF, TEX.  Speedy collegian recovering from fractured ankle, logged 29ABs in A- ball, with a miserable .398 OPS.  Swiped 3 bags, though, and Rangers are probably just glad to see him running full speed.  Grade = INC for so few ABs.

36.    Clayton Mortensen, rhp, stl.  A somewhat projectable collegian, spent 33% time at A- and 66% time at A in 2007.  Overall, had a 1.26 whip, 68k, 19bb in 61ip.  Was more hittable as he moved up, but K rate remained strong and control actually improved (45/8).  Groundball pitcher with a decent ability to K batters, is a good fit for Cards' "pitch to contact" philosophy, and could move fast in 2008.  Grade = B+ for strong performance at A ball, with a decent K rate and potential projectability left.

37.    Travis D'Arnaud, C, PHI.   HS catcher rated highly for defense, with questions about his bat.  Posted a .626 OPS in 140 ABs in Rookie ball in 2007, with 4BB and 23 K.  Grade = C+

38.    Bret Cecil LHP, TOR.  College pitcher (but just 20 YO) who threw 50 innings in 2007, all at A-.  Had outstanding peripherals, with 56 Ks, 11 BBs, 36 H, and only 1 HR.  Was a reliever in college, but started 13 of his 14 games as a pro, and appeared to take to it well.  Grade = a bullish A-; tempted to go B+ here because of low level of competition, but keep in mind he was only 20 and also making the transition to SP.  Very nice.

39.    James Adkins LHP, LAD.  Is there an echo in here?  Like Cecil, he is a college lefty with a great slider who was strong in his first taste of the pros.  Adkins threw 26 innings as a pro in 2007, all in A ball.  Great line of 26 ip, 30k, 10 bb, 17 h, and 1 hr.  Grade = B+, gets props for starting out in A ball.

40.    Kellen Kulbacki, OF, SD.  Lefty college hitter whose bat is supposed to carry him turned in a fine initial campaign at A-, going 301/382/491/873 in 226 ABs.  Also had 27BBs and 56Ks.  Is going to have to keep hitting if he ends up moving to LF, as predicted before the draft (not sure if he's made the move from RF yet as a pro).  Grade = B+, held down a tad by A- league setting.

41.    Sean Doolittle, 1B, OAK.  College 2-way player, apparently has given up pitching in the OAK system and is now a 1B.  Logged a .688 OPS in 239 ABs in 2007, mostly at A level.  Good OBP (.341), but minimal power (.347).  Grade = B-, with the low OPS being mitigated by good OBP skills.

42.    Eddie Kunz, RHP, NYM.  Collegian who came into A- for 12 games and pretty much struggled.  Shows 2 pitches, and profiles best as a reliever.  9k / 8 bb in 12 innings, but only 6 h and no HR.  Grade = C, buoyed by low BAA but dinged by bad control.

43.    Jackson Williams, C, SFG.  Collegian who got 130 pro ABs, all  at A-.  Posted an OPS of .707, with a decent walk rate (16) and a bit of power (5HR).  I don't know much about this guy - any SF fans want to chime in?  Grade = C+, for OK production, but at a low level.

44.    Neil Ramirez RHP, TEX.  HS pitcher.  I can't find any record of him pitching in 2007.  Grade = Incomplete.

45.    Justin Jackson, SS, TOR.  HS draftee struggled at Rookie level, posting a .515 OPS in 166 ABs.  Had a decent walk rate (20 bbs), but only hit .187 and slugged .241, while striking out 44 times. Not the kind of K rate you want to see from a guy with limited power.  Grade = C-, pending any kind of news about his defense.  

46.    Drew Cumberland, SS, SD.  Speed merchant who is considered to have limited power, a fringy arm, and decent OBP skills.  Backed all this up by posting a .310/.383/.357/.740 line in 84 ABs at Rookie level in 2007, before a cup of coffee at A- (4 games).  Overall, showed the kind of hitting skills (contact, good discipline) that will allow a speed guy to rise thru the ranks and potentially be a leadoff hitter.  Grade = B-, with props for a decent performance in his stint at A- as an 18-yr-old.

47.    Nathan Vineyard, LHP, NYM.  HS lefty posted decent peripherals in 27 IP at Rookie ball - 33K, 9 BB, 30H.  Allowed 4 taters, though, which helped lead to a 5.27 ERA.  Hittable, but decent control, and seems worthy of a promotion in 2008.  Grade = B- for decent control and not outrageously hittable.

48.    Josh Donaldson, C, CHC.  Collegian who spent most of his pro appearances at A-, where he posted a nifty 346/470/605/1075 line in 162 ABs.  Also had a sweet 37BB/34K.  Not sure how his defense played - there were concerns coming into the draft about his ability to stick at C.  Grade = B, weighed down only by a somewhat low level by collegian.

49.    Michael Burgess, OF, WAS.  HS draftee who split time 60/40 between Rookie (128 ABs) and A- ball (70 ABs).  Put up a combined line of 318/421/561/982, with 35BB and 60Ks.  Grade = A-, despite the high K rate.  Gets extra props for shooting up to A- as an 18-yr-old in his first year.

50.    Wes Roemer, RHP, AZ.  College draftee spent all 8 games in the bullpen at A-, with a line  of 18K/2BB/11H in 12 innings.  Solid start for the guy, though it's a shame to see him get moved to the bullpen right off.  Grade = B, with a weigh down for bullpen move.

51.    Charlie Culberson, 2B/SS, SFG.  HS draftee posted a 790 OPS with little power but good OBP in 160 ABs in Rookie ball.  Speed demon was 19 for 20 in SB attempts, while walking 19 times (against 38 Ks, though).  Like Cumberland (#46), has the speed and on-base skills to offset lack of power, especially if he can stick at middle infield.  Grade = B, with speed and OBP offsetting lack of power and Ks.  

52.    Matt Mangini, 3B, SEA.  Hulking college draftee (6'4", 220 lbs) split time between A- and A+ in 2007, posting a combined line of 252/353/395/748 in 147 ABs.  Was solid at A-, a little weak at A+ (6bb, 21K), but had a nice overall line and showed some pop and ability to get on base.  Will be nice to see him have a full year in the pros in 2008 to see what he can do with a wood bat full-time.  Grade = B-, for being a little overmatched at A+, but solid at A-.

53.    Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, CIN.  HS draftee, looked solid in Rookie league, with 36K, 10BB, 22H in 29 IP.  Grade = B, for promising but not dominant.  Will be fun to watch this guy in 2008.

54.    Tommy Hunter, RHP, TEX.  College sophomore who threw 18 innings at A- in 2007, all in the bullpen.  Great control (13K/1BB) with 15 H and no HRs allowed.  Is he in the bullpen for good?  Grade = B-, buoyed by control, but dampened by low K rate and move to bullpen.

55.    Nick Hagadone, BOS, LHP.  Collegian who pitched more in relief than as a starter in college, and thus threw only 128 innings over three years in college.  Age 21 in 2007, he was move to the rotation as a pro and started 10 games in A-, but was limited to just 24 IP.  Really excelled in those, though, with 33K, 8BB, 14H, and 1HR, with opponents only hitting .163 off him.  On pure performance, he'd be an A-; others might bump him down due to it being low-A ball, but I'll take the Brett Cecil (# 38, above) approach and leave him at A- since he was also making the transition to starting (and a nice one at that).

56.    Trystan Magnuson, RHP, TOR.  Not sure if he signed or not.  Did not pitch in the pros in 2007.  Apparently also plays the violin (this is the kind of detailed scouting I bring to the table!), which is funny for a 6'7" guy who sounds like he should be towing cars in the World's Strongest man competition.  Grade = incomplete.

57.    Mitch Canham, C, SD.  Cardinals escapee from the 2006 draft, he logged 116 ABs in A- ball in 2007, posting a line of 293/379/397/776, with 11BB and 35Ks.  Not overwhelming for a guy whose bat is supposed to carry him at CI or CO if he doesn't pan out at C, but also not terrible.  Grade = B-, which should be bumped up if he looked decent defensively.  Should start 2008 at lake Elsinore in the Cal League - if so, he could really put up good numbers and be on everyone's radar as a lefty-hitting catcher with good stats.

58.    Jonathon Bachanov, RHP, LAA.  No innings as a pro - did he sign?  Grade = incomplete.  

59.    Corey Brown, OF, OAK.  Collegiate slugger who profiles as a TTO guy, chosen by - you guessed it - Oakland.  Logged 213 ABs at A-, hitting268/379/545/924.  Walked 37 times, and struck out a whopping 77 times.  Overall grade = B+, with a bit of a deduction for the numbers coming at low-A. Like Canham, watch him in the Cal League next year.

60.    Brandon Hamilton, RHP, DET.  Gotta love the Tigers, going with yet another HS arm.  Did not play in the pros in 2007.  Grade = incomplete.
61.    Ed Easley, C, ARI.  Posted a .738 OPS in 124 ABs in A-.  Grade = B-.

62.    Ryan Dent, 2B/SS, BOS.  Speedy HS draftee who hit for a 1.063 OPS in 35 ABs in Rookie Ball (as a SS), then was overmatched with a .396 OPS in 45 ABs in A- (while playing 2B).  Apparently athletic enough to handle 2B or CF if SS does not work out, has major speed, and shouldn't be dinged too much for moving up to A- as an 18-yr-old.  Grade = B for fine showing at Rookie Ball, held down only by small sample size.

63.    Corey Luebke, LHP, SD.  College draftee who looked excellent while splitting time at 3 levels in 2007, topping out at A+ in the Cal League (where he was shelled in first start, but gave up no runs in the other).  Overall split was 61K/8BB/57H in 59 IP, with 5 HRs.  I like the control and K rate, but don't have much of a scouting report in him.  Grade = B+.

64.    Danny Payne, OF, SD.  Collegiate draftee who profiles as a minimal power guy with ability to hit for average, excellent arm, and average speed.  Posted a curious line of 279/444/355/799 in 183 ABs at A- in 2007.  Odd to see an OBP so much above the SLG.  Drew an amazing 53BB and had 53K in those 183 ABs.  Also stole 17 bases despite being pegged as an average runner.  Am I seeing Kotsay/Erstad?  Grade = B-.        

Summary:

A-  = 3 (Cecil, Burgess, Hagadone)
B+ = 6 (Noonan, Mortenson, Adkins, Kulbacki, Brown, Luebke)
B  = 6 (Frazier, Donaldson, Roemer, Culberson, Lotzkar, Dent)
B- = 8 (Doolittle, Cumberland, Vineyard, Mangini, Hunter, Canham, Easley, Payne)
C+ = 2 (D'Arnaud, Williams)
C =  2 (Gilmore, Kunz)
C- = 1 (Jackson)
Incomplete = 6 (Smoker, Borbon, Ramirez, Bachanov, Magnuson, Hamilton)

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