Twins Payroll

by rwperu34 on Nov 26, 2007 4:45 PM EST Comment 15 comments

Salary information provided by Cot's Baseball Contracts;

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/minnesota-twins_17.html

This is an estimation of what the Twins payroll will look like in 2008, and perhaps beyond. I'll estimate who is going to play where the best I can.

Position, Player, Salary, Service Time
C-Joe Mauer, $6.25MM, 4.0
1b-Justin Morneau, ~$7MM, 3.2
2b, Alexi Casilla, ~$400k, < 1
3b-none
ss-Jason Bartlett, ~$500k, 2.1
lf-up in the air, $500k-$2.5MM
cf-none
rf-Michael Cuddyer, ~$5MM, 4.2
dh-Jason Kubel, ~$1.2MM, 3.0

Bench
UT-Nick Punto, $2.4MM, 5.1
C-Mike Redmond, $0.95MM, 9.1
OF-Jason Tyner, ~$800k, 3.1

Offensive notes; There will be two more bench player, most likely getting paid about $700k combined. Craig Monroe will either take a huge paycut to sign or get non tendered. There is no way the Twins offer arb and get stuck paying $5+MM.

That's about $25.2MM on position players, still short a CF and 3b, and kind of crappy at LF/DH. They will owe Mauer and Morneau $20MM+ in 2009, and Cuddyer ain't gettin' any cheaper as he rolls through his arb years.

Pitching;
SP-Johan Santana, $13.25MM, 7.1
SP-Boof Bonser, $400k, 1.1
SP-Scott Baker, $400k, 1.1
SP-Matt Garza, $400k, < 1
SP-Fransisco Liriano, $500k, 2.0
SP-Kevin Slowey, $400k, <1

RP-Joe Nathan, $6MM, 6.1
RP-Pat Neshek, $400k, 1.1
RP-Matt Guerrier, $900k, 3.1
RP-Juan Rincon, $2.8MM, 5.1
RP-Dennys Reyes, $1MM, 9.0
RP-Jesse Crain, $1.05MM, 3.1

Pitching notes; Santana, Nathan, and Rincon are in their last years before free agency. Nobody is locked in for more than ~$1MM for 2009.

That's about $27.5MM for a pat staff.

The Twins payroll was $71MM last year,
and I've read that it will be around $78MM in 2008. They've got $52.7 in commitments for 2008 leaving them ~$25MM to find a CF, 3b, and LF/DH while looking for an improvement over Kubel at LF/DH.

This team is not bad enough to blow up, but they've got some serious holes. As I look at it, trading Santana is not the answer. They've got to stay the course and sign second tier free agents (Lofton, Lamb) to fill their holes and make a run. I can see trading Nathan to fill one hole, and Rincon as more of a salary dump. You give up Santana, you give up your edge.

After taking a closer look at this team, I think the trade scenarios are even more muddled. The one team that could fill the Twins holes at 3B and CF are the Dodgers with LaRoche and Kemp, but that would be a violent overpay from the Dodgers perspective, and there certianly wouldn't be any other prospects going over. Most likely any deal for Santana is going to be step 1 of a multi step process, but again, I just don't see it getting done.

Final thoughts; This team should plug its holes with cheap options and see what lady variance says about 2008. If they make it, great. If not, deal whatever stopgaps they sign, Santana, and whoever's left from Nathan and Rincon at the deadline. They get less in return, but will have a much better idea of where they stand. Right now, this team is in no-mans land, with regard to win potential.

Given the fact that Morneau and Mauer are not too far from costing $30MM/yr, I doubt it's in the Twins best interest to sign Santana to a 6/120 extension. I can't see him accepting less than that, so his value to the Twins is ~$27MM (~$12MM for 2008 performance and ~$15MM for draft pick compensatioin) for 2008. While they can get way more in total value in a trade, it's unlikely they can replace his $25MM of actual value for 2008.

I do recant my statement that they won't take Crisp back in a deal. He would probably have to be paired with Youkilis and a prospect (Lester/Bowden/Masterson/high ceiling A ball type...etc).

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Comments

Lester

Fine. Put Lester in instead of Bowden or Masterson. I like Bowden better, personally.

I certianly wouldn't let the prospect kill the deal if it's Crisp and Youk. If it were Ellsbury and Youk, I wouldn't even haggle for a prospect.

by rwperu34 on Nov 26, 2007 5:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lester OR Buchholz?

Lester is nowhere near Buchholz in ceiling.
Also, Masterson is a MUCH better prospect than Bowden.

by smk1363 on Nov 26, 2007 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

question

Could the Twins get Billingsley and LaRoche for Santana if they added Bonser or Baker to their side of the deal.

The Twins don't have a legit 3rd base solution coming anytime soon. I love Santana, but I'm sure if they sign him for 8 yrs at 22MM/yr or whatever the market dictates that it will eventually backfire. They aren't a market that will absorb a 20MM deadspot like it's nothing. LaRoche and Billingsley would be a great haul.

by McLovin on Nov 26, 2007 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I love Billz

Short term Santana is still a definite upgrade over Billz. Torre isn't a young man. Dodgers haven't won a playoff series since the 80s. I could see where they might want the short term upgrade - especially if they get an arm Bonser for the backend of their rotation as well.

by McLovin on Nov 26, 2007 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Billingsley

Outside of Martin, Billingsley is probably the second most untouchable player in the Dodgers organization.

by npurcell on Nov 27, 2007 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

About sevice time

I could swear Morneau has more time in the majors than Mauer.

by jahs34 on Nov 26, 2007 5:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Possible

I'm not sure how accurate Cot's is on service time. They'd got Morneau at 2.2 and Mauer at 3.0, and I'm 95% sure they haven't counted 2007 yet.

One thing to remember, Mauer got a full year for 2004 since he was on the DL, so he's definitely at 4.0. As I look at Morneau, he had partial seasons in 03 and 04, and remember, September call ups don't get service time. Morneau's got 3+ for sure, but possibly less than 4.0. He's still probably higher than the 3.2 I listed, because at the very least he was a Super Two heading into 2007. I'd bet Morneau is somewhere between 3.8 and 4.2. That's a crucial difference, because it determines how far from free agency he is.

by rwperu34 on Nov 26, 2007 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crisp + Youk

The Twins are better in 2008 with Crisp and Youk. They are also cheaper, and better for the future. If they get a high ceiling prospect as well, that throws it into home run territory. The real question on that deal is, would the Red Sox do it? Defenitely no without an extension for Santan, a big maybe if they're willing to pony up 6/150.

I agree that Santana is the best starting pitcher in baseball. It's the contract situation that makes a trade even possible.

by rwperu34 on Nov 26, 2007 5:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well

The offense is certainly better (through Youks, as Crisp won't give them much), but the pitching staff certainly won't be as good. Unless Liriano comes back and duplicates Santana's performance...

Can't say right now what it will take to land Santana. Youks+Crisp and a prospect sounds reasonable, but what if the Yankees enter the fray and throw out a Philip Hughes and Melky Cabrera? Or what if the Mets offer Heilman, Smith, Milledge and Martinez? Or what if Santana doesn't want to play in Boston? Etc... Too much to predict at this point. I think he re-signs with Minny.

by nyr2k2 on Nov 26, 2007 8:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah???

Anyone who thinks that the Pohlad family is going to fork out 6/150 really needs to check their heads. Pohlad keeps the purse strings very close to the vest and isn't going to change. Every time Ryan would go on the radio to be interviewed over the last 3 years every call asking whether he was going to go out and get a bat was tersely responded to with a flat "I have spent all the money that they gave me this year."

The Twins should try to stick with him as long as they can in my opinion though. The rotation alone could carry this team a long way. I will say the same thing that another poster stated about the fact that Johan is not going to be a "rental". Any team that makes a trade is going to have an extension in place for him when he gets there. We're not talking about Eric Bedard or someone of that ilk. This guy truly is the only lefthander in the last 50 years that can have his name elevated to the level of Koulfax and Johnson. The Twins should hold out for a lot. Melky Cabrera and Coco Crisp are legitimate players but in all reality if you are going to give up the greatest starter in the game today you better have a deal in place that is going to fill all your immediate needs. A Youk/Ellsbury/Lester/high ceiling prospect or Billz or Kershaw/LaRoche/Kemp deal being the only things out there right now that the Twins should be looking at. They are still in a position of power. Its not everyday that the best starter in baseball is on the market, and any team that has the resources to get there hands on him SHOULD be in that mix.

I know that I might come off as a homer, but right now there shouldn't be any pressure on the Twins to move. Let the bidding ensue and see what happens.

by Terry Ryan Jr on Nov 26, 2007 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pohlad's purse

I'm tired of blaming Carl. Since Dave St. Peter was promoted to president, they've had an operating budget in the baseball department between 50 and 52% of revenue, which is industry standard.

The real problem is revenue, and that is in short supply despite decent attendance lately because the Twins have the worst lease in baseball and one of the worst TV contracts. So 52% of revenue only gets you a payroll of $75 million or so in 2008.

Say the Twins sign him for six additional years at $130 million ($142.5 million counting 2008). That's roughly 28 percent of the payroll. Few teams can afford to pay one player 28 percent of payroll no matter how good he is.

Plus, the Twins can't win with the holes they have at third and center and they will have a tough time filling those holes without trading Santana. So all indications are they will trade him to fill those holes, and hope that Liriano, Garza, and Slowey can pick up the slack in the rotation.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 27, 2007 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The future

I guess I understand the lease issue, but that will only be a problem for the first year of Santana's new deal. He is signed for 08, 09 will be under the current lease with its associated $75M revenue stream, but 2010 and beyond will be with the new stadium/lease and its increased revenue, right? So that 28% will drop, right?

by cooper7d7 on Nov 27, 2007 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

The new stadium is expected to produce $40 to $50 million in additional revenue, which will result in about $20 million in payroll (keeping in mind the whole baseball department is 52% of revenue, including the minor leagues, scouting and international programs). Supposing the payroll in 2010 is $95 million, your percentage of payroll approaches your million multiple. You're still looking at 20%, which I would be OK with, but I don't know if Bill Smith will be.

The real problem is 2009, when Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Bartlett, Baker, Bonser, Neshek, Guerrier, Crain, and others will be arbitration eligible. Signing Santana to 28% of payroll for 2009 makes it very difficult for Smith to sign key players to contracts that buy out their arbitration years.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 27, 2007 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

New Deal

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3129086

This is what I get from reading that article. Juan Rincon for Brett Gardner.

by rwperu34 on Nov 26, 2007 8:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gomes

TB and Minny should be on the phone discussing a Gomes for Baker or Bonser deal. Gomes is still relatively young, makes no money yet, plays the game hard, has 30 HR power if given the AB's, and fighting for playing time with the Rays. TB could use an innings guy like Baker while waiting for their young arms to come through the system. With Kazmir, Price, and Shields at the front of the rotation, a guy like Baker could help them as a solid 4 while awaiting Davis/McGee/Hellickson/Niemann/etc.

by ftheyankees on Nov 27, 2007 8:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs