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2008 New York Mets Prospects

New York Mets Top 20 Prospects for 2008

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

  1. Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+
  2. Deolis Guerra, RHP, Grade B+
  3. Carlos Gomez, OF, Grade B (undecided, may raise to B+. You guys are right about the injuries, but you also need to be more wary of Mets propaganda.)
  4. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade B (may raise to B+)
  5. Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B
  6. Eddie Kunz, RHP, Grade B
  7. Phil Humber, RHP, Grade B-
  8. Brant Rustich, RHP, Grade B-
  9. Joe Smith, RHP, Grade B-
  10. Nick Evans, 1B, Grade C+
  11. Stephen Clyne, RHP, Grade C+
  12. Scott Moviel, RHP, Grade C+
  13. Brahiam Maldonado, OF, Grade C+ (deserves more respect)
  14. Nate Vinyard, LHP, Grade C (although I like him)
  15. Robert Parnell, RHP, Grade C
  16. Mike Carp, 1B, Grade C
  17. Hector Pellot, 2B, Grade C
  18. Dan Murphy, 3B, Grade C
  19. Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Grade C
  20. Greg Veloz, 2B, Grade C
There are 15 other Grade C prospects in the book who are interchangeable with these other guys. There are some toolsy players like Francisco Pena and Juan Lagares with dismal performance records that I cannot rate highly at this point, no matter how much the Mets talk about them. There is some nice pitching in this system, but depth in position players is very weak. Overall the system is better than it looks at first, but lack of hitting depth is a problem, and I hate the way they rush some of their prospects.

Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!

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Maldonado
I migt even go  far as bumping him up to a B-. He hit .371 in the second half of the season last year and he has been showing good potential with the bat.

by Abbath on Nov 25, 2007 7:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Parnell
is too low, IMO. If they end up putting him in the bullpen, he's essentially got the same repertoire as Kunz, Rustich, and Clyne. So I don't see why he ranks way below them.

Aside from that, just some minor differences. Niese and Kunz I'd bump down to B-. I'd have Martinez as an A- and Gomez as a B+. Ruben Tejada would be on this list as a C+, probably right below Moviel.

by jeck on Nov 25, 2007 7:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Kunz
Hard time seeing him ranked as a B...maybe B-.

by doublestix on Nov 25, 2007 7:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Did Lucas Duda make the book?
I thought he had a nice stint with Brooklyn and a very nice HWB performance.

by brandard on Nov 25, 2007 8:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree with Mets propaganda
I have said before he is boom or bust.  If he booms he is one of the best all around outfielders in the game much like a Carlos Beltran or a better Torii Hunter.  If he busts he is another Alex Ochoa or Nook Logan, 4th outfield types.  If you give him a B+ you have to give Colby Rasmus an A- at a minimum.

by Bravesin07 on Nov 25, 2007 8:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Rasmus
Isn't Rasmus a favorite to get a straight A, or are we expecting less than four position prospects to be graded that highly?

by rwperu34 on Nov 25, 2007 10:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Response
I like Mulvey at B+, Gomez at a strong B, Guerra at B in that order.

Guerra's an intriguing pitcher, and while I don't think it's right to penalize him too harshly at this point for health issues, at the same time I'm not thrilled that his shoulder is already a little balky. He looks like a good arm with a lot of upside, but there's so much that can go wrong here. There's still some things that aren't "right" here to begin with.

by mrkupe on Nov 25, 2007 8:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I like the list
Ahead of Veloz and Carrera, I'd put the big, projectable Aussie RHP Gavin Dlouhy.  Solid stuff already with plenty of room to grow.

Steven Cheney and Dylan Owen would also be reasonable choices in the 15-20 range, though I know many people will knock Owen for not throwing particularly hard.

by nyr2k2 on Nov 25, 2007 8:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i think
mike carp is a little low...
--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Nov 25, 2007 8:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Carp hit .150 against lefties
Grade C is a good grade.  He's not any better than Mike Jacobs.

by Bravesin07 on Nov 25, 2007 8:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

er...
mike jacobs has a career .817 OPS. not great, but if that's the norm for a 'C' prospect, then I'm crazy.

in any case, on Carp, agree he had a bad year, but he was young and in a tough hitters' environment. think there's still potential there.

by scooter on Nov 26, 2007 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Problem
Mike Jacobs is Carp's high end outcome. There are plenty of failures that have to be accounted for as well in the total value.

by rwperu34 on Nov 26, 2007 4:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i didn't say he would be mike jacobs
just responding to the comment above.

by scooter on Nov 27, 2007 12:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My Opinion
These are actually better grades than I thought they would get...

I'd say that Fernando, Guerra, and Gomez should be B+'s and Mulvey should probably stay as a B. I'd put Niese and Kunz as B-'s and Parnell as a C+.

Just my Mets' fan opinion though!

by rsvandy on Nov 25, 2007 8:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Catcher
Was does the future look like for catcher Francisco Pena?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 25, 2007 9:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sean Henry
The Henry trade to the Reds shows just how early-decade-Yankee-ized the Mets have become.  Even past the Kazmir deal, Minaya has stripped this system of a lot of depth.  It looks like Henry would be a top 10 prospect here, maybe as high as 6 or 7.

Usually, when a system gets worse from year to year, that indicates a bunch of graduations.  Here, it justs indicates mismanagement on Minaya's part.

by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 25, 2007 9:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

B-?
Is Sean Henry really going to grade out as a B-?

by rsvandy on Nov 25, 2007 11:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt it
Henry looks more like a 4th-OF type.  He posted an OPS below .800 in High-A at 22.  I'm not saying there's no potential there, but a grade of C seems more reasonable to me.  

by nyr2k2 on Nov 26, 2007 11:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

For the ten millionth time
Jim Duquette made the Kazmir trade. Not Minaya. The Kazmir trade was so bad that it led to them blowing up the front office and bringing in Minaya.

by jeck on Nov 26, 2007 1:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mets system
I happen to think much more highly of the Mets system than this list.  I suppose it's because I think of the major league team, with no longer eligible prospects like Milledge and Pelfrey.  Not to mention great young regulars like Wright and Reyes.  

I honestly think Gomez is a B+, and that Smith, Carp, Tejeda, Pena and FMart are all underrated.  I suppose I'm much higher on the Mets system than most, but this is a system that has alot of superstar potential in it (even if it comes with bust potential).  

The problem for John, I suppose, is that the high minors are pretty barren (only about 4 prospects), but I think that the low minors are teaming with talent.  I definitely think this system is in better shape than its been rated here.  

by GuyinNY on Nov 25, 2007 11:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Humber
What does everyone think???  His "profile" seems to be solid, and he has the pedigree of a first rounder. . .what do ya'll think his future is gonna be???

by SoCalSoxFan on Nov 26, 2007 12:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

humber
i still like humber.  i think he could be a solid #3 starter... and he is major league ready.  i dont entirely get why he has dropped so much.

by znyfan on Nov 26, 2007 2:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Humber
He should be a number 3, if he regains his form.  He's dropped partially from the fact that he didn't dominate at AAA or in the Majors, and any kid who gets roughed up above AA takes a major hit from all the "internet experts."  

A valid cause for concern and a resulting drop in his stock was a decrease in fastball velocity last season.  Throughout the year (not just towards the end of season as some claim), Humber's fastball sat 89-91.  When drafted, Humber was regularly clocked between 93-95.  The drop in velocity is a bit concerning, although I've heard mentions that the coaches had Humber throwing in that velocity range intentionally to aid his control.  Also, considering that he had pitched all of 76 innings the previous year, his arm may have been tired (although the velocity, as I mentioned, was down at the start of the year as well).

Should Humber makes the Mets' roster this season, he'll be pitching half of his games in a terrific pitchers park (not to mention the parks in Atlanta, Washington and Florida).  He's a definite fly ball pitcher, so this factor should work to his advantage.

I'm expecting a bounce-back season from Humber, be it in AAA, out of the pen or in the Mets rotation.  I don't think an ERA of ~4.20 at the ML level is at all unreasonable to project for Humber if pitches as a starter.    

by nyr2k2 on Nov 26, 2007 3:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nick Evans
Why is he ranked higher than Carp? I thought his numbers were interesting when I looked at them a while back. Then I looked at Carp, and he did the same thing in 2006 and now is a level higher.
Todd Frazier for President

by FrazierFan on Nov 26, 2007 12:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Evans a bit better
Evans was a year older in the FSL, but his performance is more encouraging going forward.  Carp put up very, very similar numbers to Evans, true.  The big difference as I see it, however, are the strikeouts; Evans showed the same pop that Carp did, but he strikes out about as much as he walks, and he walks a hell of a lot more than Carp.

Carp's FSL  BB/K/AB - 51/107/490

Evans' FSL BB/K/AB - 53/64/378

Evans walked more than Carp in a lot less ABs.  Carp's OBP is where the discrepancy is; he had 25 HBP in '06, giving a huge boost to his OBP.  Evans had 3.

Basically, Evans showed the same pop and average ability, while flashing some pretty solid discipline.  He's more interesting than he gets credit for.

by MontrealMets on Nov 26, 2007 9:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nick Evans
I was about to post a question as to why Nick Evans doesn't seem to receive any love from the experts but thanks for summing it up.  Do any gurus know why people don't think highly of him?  He seems like a decent prospect to me, especially if he starts next season at AA.

by Lunkwill Fook on Nov 26, 2007 10:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

One name not mentioned
Look at the splits on Will Morgan, he was like an 11th Round draftee of the Mets in 2007 as a Junior out of Lewis & Clark State

Great numbers at Lewis & Clark and for Brooklyn was lights out against righties.  I have seen some comparisons between him and former major leaguer Scott Strickland

by mtk52983 on Nov 26, 2007 11:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dan Murphy
I'm not sure where he fits in defensively (obviously blocked at thirdbase), but I really think Murphy has some promising offensive potential. He seemed to raise his game in the second half of 2007 in the FSL, posting an OPS of .905 in July and .915 in August. He also looked pretty good in the Hawaii Winter League, finishing with an OPS of .837, four homeruns and 11 BB to 22 K's in 95 abs (a .274 average). He still struggles against lefties (not to the degree that Carp does, however), and the power needs to keep increasing to justify playing either corner position.  

I'd raise his grade to a C+, with a chance to go up to a B if he builds on his second half performance next year in AA. If the power keeps developing, maybe the Mets move him to first to find room for him?

Oh, and as a totally random aside, here's a good quote from him (from an interview posted on metsminors/metsblog):

"I like to read a lot.  I realized playing 140 games this year that you just sit down and watch sportscenter every night, just go to the park, you just get dumber.   So I really enjoyed that, found some good books this summer...Reading and thinking about hitting, that's my life right there"

by southboundpachyderm on Nov 26, 2007 1:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

re: quote
LOL

by McLovin on Nov 26, 2007 2:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Position
I think they'll keep him at third or turn him into a utility guy. He doesn't have anywhere near the power to play first, he's interesting at third as a Joe Randa type maybe, but if you move him to a less challenging defensive position he's nothing special.  Moreover, do you really think that the Mets, of all teams, are going to go with a power-lacking first baseman?  Omar learned from Mientkiewicz.

Not to mention moving him to first doesn't really help with Duda, Carp, and Evans in the system, he's still probably going to be blocked.

by MontrealMets on Nov 27, 2007 5:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

JS...
...this looks way mixed up to me, I think you are trying to over correct for "Mets propoganda."

Just comparing to your other B and B+ prospects, Gomez should clearly be in the B+ range (yes, he is raw, but has had performed well in the upper minors 20/21 year-old)

Humber should be at least a B (and he should definitely have a better grade than Rustich, Kunz, Niese etc.)...he lead the PCL in WHIP and had nice components (outside of HR allowed, but I'm sure being in the PCL contributed heavily to that), especially for a first full season off TJ...that being said, Niese and Kunz don't have good enough track records to be better than B- IMO.

Mike Carp certainly didn't do well...but a straight C (interchangeable with 20 other guys in the system according to you) seems a bit harsh.

It's Business Time

by uga007 on Nov 26, 2007 3:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm going to sit here....
...and try to figure out what the hell that means....  :)

by Lunkwill Fook on Nov 26, 2007 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Someone obviously...
...isn't a Flight of the Conchords fan.
It's Business Time

by uga007 on Nov 27, 2007 1:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with Uga007 above...
F Martinez - He's an A- if healthy, but I'm concerned that that hamate injury might continue to affect him next season.  So I could see leaving him a B+ until he shows more.  

D Guerra -  I've seen him, and the changeup is great, and the fastball good, what I have some doubt about is whether the curve has the plus potential BA says.   B+ looks fair to me for now.  

C Gomez - I'd have to give him the B+.  Sure it's hard to grade him as much as the Mets have challenged him.  But it's not like he struggled with the challenges either.  He did hit .286/.363/.414 in AAA this year.  And he's an elite defensive CF, with a RFg of 2.94 this year in AAA.  The power potential some are claiming sounds like wishful thinking to me, but I don't see the bust potential some do either.  To me, his defense, base running, and ability to make contact give him a floor somewhere near to Coco Crisp or Juan Pierre.  I don't see how Andrew McCutchen, a year younger with a .710 OPS in AA, has proven so much more.  Will he get a B too?

K Mulvey - Another guy who was aggressively pushed  by starting his career in AA.  His dominating performance over the second half is intriguing.  I'd like to know the scouting reasons.  For now I might say B.  But if he can continue to get lefties out (which is what I think he struggled with earlier), whether it's due to the cutter he added or improvement in the curve or changeup, he might be worth the B+.

J Niese - I might have him at B- for now.  Solid overall repertoire, the secondary stuff has pretty nice potential, the fastball is more average.  Still some work to do.  

E Kunz - I'd give him a B-.  His debut was uninspiring, though he does have the excuse that unlike Rustich, he didn't have time to work with the Mets in instructional ball before heading to Brooklyn.  Still, other than being drafted #42 overall, which isn't all that high, I'm not sure what he's done yet to even deserve the B.  He'll be OK in the long run, but I don't see him ranking higher than Humber.

P Humber - I think he deserves a B.  He's not the potential ace some Mets fans wish, but he's still comparable to the other guys who are getting straight Bs, like Mulvey, or Jurrjens of the Braves, or Hochevar and Buckner on your hometown Royals.  Compare his line in the PCL to the latter two in the same league, Humber was a bit better.  There's not much difference there in ballpark effects either.  Even if he moves to the pen, I think his ceiling is better than Kunz.  And I even suspect that the Mets have been talking him down because they want him to move to the pen.  Mets propaganda can run both ways.

B Rustich - Interesting potential here.  He supposedly had 1st round stuff, but bad command problems dropped him deep into the second round.  After working with the Mets coaches, he showed up throwing strikes and dominating in a small sample in Brooklyn.  He seems to have regressed a bit in the HWL.  I'd leave him at B-, but potential to move up if he continues to throw strikes consistently.

J Smith - Looked good in MLB for a stretch, but I'd be concerned that some of that is a deceptive delivery which hitters will adjust to soon enough. I guess I'd leave him B-.  

N Evans - I agree with the C+.  I like his bat, but a guy limited to 1B simply has to show more to get a high grade.  

I agree with most of the rest, but I might consider moving Parnell up to a C+.  
 

by acerimusdux on Nov 26, 2007 6:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

More...
On second thought, I might actually drop Smith to C+.  In the long run, I'm not sure he's much better than Carlos Muniz.  He's another guy the Mets obviously rushed some though, so maybe there's more there with a chance to work on his secondary pitches (mainly a changeup).

Now for guys left off:

Francisco Pena - Yeah his .546 is far less than impressive, but the kid was 17 all season, and playing in full season ball.  Plus, if the defense is there, I don't think he has to hit as much at the CA position to turn into a decent prospect.  Also, he still outhit second baseman Greg Veloz (a .478 OPS) in Savannah (though Veloz hit some in short season ball).  Pena hasn't earned more than a C yet, but he still probably belongs in the top 20.

Nick Carr - Hard thrower with solid peripherals in Brooklyn.  I've seen some suggest he could be a bullpen guy, but that may be more because of his stature than his stuff.

Emmanuel Garcia - His .640 OPS in St. Lucie isn't impressive, but he was making the jump form short season ball.  He struggled badly for the first two months, but came around to hit .283/.360/.340 from June 1 on (in 361 PA--at least from what data is available at minorleaguesplits.com).  Then he went to Hawaii and hit .348/.427/.485 (in only 74 PA).  This is a very athletic, strong looking kid with good tools.  The fact that he's shown very little extra base hit power is a concern, but I think he's also ahead of Pellot and Veloz defensively.  He had a solid 5.45 range factor at 2B this year, and also played 56 games at SS.  He's a year older than Pellot, and 2 years older than Veloz, and still a longshot to hit enough (so still a C guy), but could be in AA next year and has shown enough he should make the book.

by acerimusdux on Nov 27, 2007 12:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also Nick Carr?
in the book?

by brandard on Nov 26, 2007 7:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

re: Carlos Gomez
I can see him turning into an Otis Nixon type, I know Mets' fans will kill me for that comparison, but I don't know if the power is there.  

This isn't bad, as Otis was a very good productive player for a long time....but not what you want out of your second best prospect.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Nov 27, 2007 1:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Meeeeh
Guys coming out of big four year programs in rookie ball ought to all hit cleanup.  I like Duda, but so far all we have is a seventh round draft pick who has played against younger competition and done well.  He could be something, but I want to see some returns that aren't from rookie league or the HWL first.

by MontrealMets on Nov 28, 2007 11:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not really....
Probably 95% of guys coming out of 4 year programs go to short season low A ball.  That's because the full season rosters are already full.  It's really not "rookie" ball, it's mainly a league designed for college draftees who already have a good bit of experience in college ball.  And like most of them, Duda came out after 3 years, his junior season.  So his age was exactly average for  the league, which averages 21.4 years old as of July 1.  There's only a handful of much younger players there, typically some get promoted from extended  ST or real rookie leagues (like Kingsport in the Appalachian league).  

Mets>>PCL(AAA)>>EAS(AA)>>FSL(A+)>>SAL(A)>NYPL(A-)>>APP(R)>>GC L(R-)

And the HWL is like A++, just as the AFL is like AA+.  Most players there have played full season ball.  It's mostly the best prospects out of A+ and A leagues, a limited number with experience at AA.  

The biggest caveat I would have about Duda's HWL performance is sample size.  It does look like he shouldn't have any problem handling A+ ball next year though.  The other concern is a guy has to hit a LOT to be a 1B prospect.  At 1B, Duda's .860 OPS in the NYPL wouldn't be good enough for him to make MLB as a starter.  Unless his defense is very good, the HR power obviously needs to develop.  He's basically the same age as Evans, and I'd guess probably 6 months behind him at this point in development.  So I wouldn't quite rank him with Evans or Carp yet, but he's not that far behind, and you could make a case that he's proven as much as Murphy, Pellot, or Veloz has at this point.  Like the man says, all of these "C" guys are pretty interchangeable.

by acerimusdux on Nov 30, 2007 1:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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