2008 New York Mets Prospects
New York Mets Top 20 Prospects for 2008
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.
- Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+
- Deolis Guerra, RHP, Grade B+
- Carlos Gomez, OF, Grade B (undecided, may raise to B+. You guys are right about the injuries, but you also need to be more wary of Mets propaganda.)
- Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade B (may raise to B+)
- Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B
- Eddie Kunz, RHP, Grade B
- Phil Humber, RHP, Grade B-
- Brant Rustich, RHP, Grade B-
- Joe Smith, RHP, Grade B-
- Nick Evans, 1B, Grade C+
- Stephen Clyne, RHP, Grade C+
- Scott Moviel, RHP, Grade C+
- Brahiam Maldonado, OF, Grade C+ (deserves more respect)
- Nate Vinyard, LHP, Grade C (although I like him)
- Robert Parnell, RHP, Grade C
- Mike Carp, 1B, Grade C
- Hector Pellot, 2B, Grade C
- Dan Murphy, 3B, Grade C
- Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Grade C
- Greg Veloz, 2B, Grade C
Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!
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Comments
Maldonado
by Abbath on Nov 25, 2007 7:43 PM EST 0 recs
Parnell
Aside from that, just some minor differences. Niese and Kunz I'd bump down to B-. I'd have Martinez as an A- and Gomez as a B+. Ruben Tejada would be on this list as a C+, probably right below Moviel.
by jeck on Nov 25, 2007 7:47 PM EST 0 recs
Kunz
by doublestix on Nov 25, 2007 7:49 PM EST 0 recs
Did Lucas Duda make the book?
by brandard on Nov 25, 2007 8:06 PM EST 0 recs
I agree with Mets propaganda
by Bravesin07 on Nov 25, 2007 8:06 PM EST 0 recs
Rasmus
by rwperu34 on
Nov 25, 2007 10:48 PM EST
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Response
Guerra's an intriguing pitcher, and while I don't think it's right to penalize him too harshly at this point for health issues, at the same time I'm not thrilled that his shoulder is already a little balky. He looks like a good arm with a lot of upside, but there's so much that can go wrong here. There's still some things that aren't "right" here to begin with.
by mrkupe on Nov 25, 2007 8:24 PM EST 0 recs
I like the list
Steven Cheney and Dylan Owen would also be reasonable choices in the 15-20 range, though I know many people will knock Owen for not throwing particularly hard.
by nyr2k2 on Nov 25, 2007 8:27 PM EST 0 recs
i think
by bobbymcnally on Nov 25, 2007 8:43 PM EST 0 recs
Carp hit .150 against lefties
by Bravesin07 on
Nov 25, 2007 8:56 PM EST
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er...
in any case, on Carp, agree he had a bad year, but he was young and in a tough hitters' environment. think there's still potential there.
by scooter on
Nov 26, 2007 4:29 PM EST
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The Problem
by rwperu34 on
Nov 26, 2007 4:58 PM EST
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i didn't say he would be mike jacobs
by scooter on
Nov 27, 2007 12:54 AM EST
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My Opinion
I'd say that Fernando, Guerra, and Gomez should be B+'s and Mulvey should probably stay as a B. I'd put Niese and Kunz as B-'s and Parnell as a C+.
Just my Mets' fan opinion though!
by rsvandy on Nov 25, 2007 8:58 PM EST 0 recs
Catcher
by Savoy on Nov 25, 2007 9:54 PM EST 0 recs
Sean Henry
Usually, when a system gets worse from year to year, that indicates a bunch of graduations. Here, it justs indicates mismanagement on Minaya's part.
by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 25, 2007 9:57 PM EST 0 recs
B-?
by rsvandy on
Nov 25, 2007 11:38 PM EST
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I doubt it
by nyr2k2 on
Nov 26, 2007 11:46 AM EST
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For the ten millionth time
by jeck on
Nov 26, 2007 1:44 AM EST
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Mets system
I honestly think Gomez is a B+, and that Smith, Carp, Tejeda, Pena and FMart are all underrated. I suppose I'm much higher on the Mets system than most, but this is a system that has alot of superstar potential in it (even if it comes with bust potential).
The problem for John, I suppose, is that the high minors are pretty barren (only about 4 prospects), but I think that the low minors are teaming with talent. I definitely think this system is in better shape than its been rated here.
by GuyinNY on Nov 25, 2007 11:39 PM EST 0 recs
Humber
by SoCalSoxFan on Nov 26, 2007 12:24 AM EST 0 recs
humber
by znyfan on
Nov 26, 2007 2:52 PM EST
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Humber
A valid cause for concern and a resulting drop in his stock was a decrease in fastball velocity last season. Throughout the year (not just towards the end of season as some claim), Humber's fastball sat 89-91. When drafted, Humber was regularly clocked between 93-95. The drop in velocity is a bit concerning, although I've heard mentions that the coaches had Humber throwing in that velocity range intentionally to aid his control. Also, considering that he had pitched all of 76 innings the previous year, his arm may have been tired (although the velocity, as I mentioned, was down at the start of the year as well).
Should Humber makes the Mets' roster this season, he'll be pitching half of his games in a terrific pitchers park (not to mention the parks in Atlanta, Washington and Florida). He's a definite fly ball pitcher, so this factor should work to his advantage.
I'm expecting a bounce-back season from Humber, be it in AAA, out of the pen or in the Mets rotation. I don't think an ERA of ~4.20 at the ML level is at all unreasonable to project for Humber if pitches as a starter.
by nyr2k2 on
Nov 26, 2007 3:08 PM EST
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Nick Evans
by FrazierFan on Nov 26, 2007 12:52 AM EST 0 recs
Evans a bit better
Carp's FSL BB/K/AB - 51/107/490
Evans' FSL BB/K/AB - 53/64/378
Evans walked more than Carp in a lot less ABs. Carp's OBP is where the discrepancy is; he had 25 HBP in '06, giving a huge boost to his OBP. Evans had 3.
Basically, Evans showed the same pop and average ability, while flashing some pretty solid discipline. He's more interesting than he gets credit for.
by MontrealMets on
Nov 26, 2007 9:43 AM EST
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Nick Evans
by Lunkwill Fook on
Nov 26, 2007 10:51 AM EST
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One name not mentioned
Great numbers at Lewis & Clark and for Brooklyn was lights out against righties. I have seen some comparisons between him and former major leaguer Scott Strickland
by mtk52983 on Nov 26, 2007 11:52 AM EST 0 recs
I am not sure if this covered the entire season
by mtk52983 on
Nov 26, 2007 11:55 AM EST
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Dan Murphy
I'd raise his grade to a C+, with a chance to go up to a B if he builds on his second half performance next year in AA. If the power keeps developing, maybe the Mets move him to first to find room for him?
Oh, and as a totally random aside, here's a good quote from him (from an interview posted on metsminors/metsblog):
"I like to read a lot. I realized playing 140 games this year that you just sit down and watch sportscenter every night, just go to the park, you just get dumber. So I really enjoyed that, found some good books this summer...Reading and thinking about hitting, that's my life right there"
by southboundpachyderm on Nov 26, 2007 1:50 PM EST 0 recs
Position
Not to mention moving him to first doesn't really help with Duda, Carp, and Evans in the system, he's still probably going to be blocked.
by MontrealMets on
Nov 27, 2007 5:08 PM EST
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JS...
Just comparing to your other B and B+ prospects, Gomez should clearly be in the B+ range (yes, he is raw, but has had performed well in the upper minors 20/21 year-old)
Humber should be at least a B (and he should definitely have a better grade than Rustich, Kunz, Niese etc.)...he lead the PCL in WHIP and had nice components (outside of HR allowed, but I'm sure being in the PCL contributed heavily to that), especially for a first full season off TJ...that being said, Niese and Kunz don't have good enough track records to be better than B- IMO.
Mike Carp certainly didn't do well...but a straight C (interchangeable with 20 other guys in the system according to you) seems a bit harsh.
by uga007 on Nov 26, 2007 3:18 PM EST 0 recs
I'm going to sit here....
by Lunkwill Fook on
Nov 26, 2007 5:25 PM EST
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Someone obviously...
by uga007 on
Nov 27, 2007 1:44 AM EST
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I agree with Uga007 above...
D Guerra - I've seen him, and the changeup is great, and the fastball good, what I have some doubt about is whether the curve has the plus potential BA says. B+ looks fair to me for now.
C Gomez - I'd have to give him the B+. Sure it's hard to grade him as much as the Mets have challenged him. But it's not like he struggled with the challenges either. He did hit .286/.363/.414 in AAA this year. And he's an elite defensive CF, with a RFg of 2.94 this year in AAA. The power potential some are claiming sounds like wishful thinking to me, but I don't see the bust potential some do either. To me, his defense, base running, and ability to make contact give him a floor somewhere near to Coco Crisp or Juan Pierre. I don't see how Andrew McCutchen, a year younger with a .710 OPS in AA, has proven so much more. Will he get a B too?
K Mulvey - Another guy who was aggressively pushed by starting his career in AA. His dominating performance over the second half is intriguing. I'd like to know the scouting reasons. For now I might say B. But if he can continue to get lefties out (which is what I think he struggled with earlier), whether it's due to the cutter he added or improvement in the curve or changeup, he might be worth the B+.
J Niese - I might have him at B- for now. Solid overall repertoire, the secondary stuff has pretty nice potential, the fastball is more average. Still some work to do.
E Kunz - I'd give him a B-. His debut was uninspiring, though he does have the excuse that unlike Rustich, he didn't have time to work with the Mets in instructional ball before heading to Brooklyn. Still, other than being drafted #42 overall, which isn't all that high, I'm not sure what he's done yet to even deserve the B. He'll be OK in the long run, but I don't see him ranking higher than Humber.
P Humber - I think he deserves a B. He's not the potential ace some Mets fans wish, but he's still comparable to the other guys who are getting straight Bs, like Mulvey, or Jurrjens of the Braves, or Hochevar and Buckner on your hometown Royals. Compare his line in the PCL to the latter two in the same league, Humber was a bit better. There's not much difference there in ballpark effects either. Even if he moves to the pen, I think his ceiling is better than Kunz. And I even suspect that the Mets have been talking him down because they want him to move to the pen. Mets propaganda can run both ways.
B Rustich - Interesting potential here. He supposedly had 1st round stuff, but bad command problems dropped him deep into the second round. After working with the Mets coaches, he showed up throwing strikes and dominating in a small sample in Brooklyn. He seems to have regressed a bit in the HWL. I'd leave him at B-, but potential to move up if he continues to throw strikes consistently.
J Smith - Looked good in MLB for a stretch, but I'd be concerned that some of that is a deceptive delivery which hitters will adjust to soon enough. I guess I'd leave him B-.
N Evans - I agree with the C+. I like his bat, but a guy limited to 1B simply has to show more to get a high grade.
I agree with most of the rest, but I might consider moving Parnell up to a C+.
by acerimusdux on Nov 26, 2007 6:19 PM EST 0 recs
More...
Now for guys left off:
Francisco Pena - Yeah his .546 is far less than impressive, but the kid was 17 all season, and playing in full season ball. Plus, if the defense is there, I don't think he has to hit as much at the CA position to turn into a decent prospect. Also, he still outhit second baseman Greg Veloz (a .478 OPS) in Savannah (though Veloz hit some in short season ball). Pena hasn't earned more than a C yet, but he still probably belongs in the top 20.
Nick Carr - Hard thrower with solid peripherals in Brooklyn. I've seen some suggest he could be a bullpen guy, but that may be more because of his stature than his stuff.
Emmanuel Garcia - His .640 OPS in St. Lucie isn't impressive, but he was making the jump form short season ball. He struggled badly for the first two months, but came around to hit .283/.360/.340 from June 1 on (in 361 PA--at least from what data is available at minorleaguesplits.com). Then he went to Hawaii and hit .348/.427/.485 (in only 74 PA). This is a very athletic, strong looking kid with good tools. The fact that he's shown very little extra base hit power is a concern, but I think he's also ahead of Pellot and Veloz defensively. He had a solid 5.45 range factor at 2B this year, and also played 56 games at SS. He's a year older than Pellot, and 2 years older than Veloz, and still a longshot to hit enough (so still a C guy), but could be in AA next year and has shown enough he should make the book.
by acerimusdux on
Nov 27, 2007 12:16 AM EST
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re: Carlos Gomez
This isn't bad, as Otis was a very good productive player for a long time....but not what you want out of your second best prospect.
by feslenraster on Nov 27, 2007 1:57 PM EST 0 recs
Meeeeh
by MontrealMets on Nov 28, 2007 11:11 AM EST 0 recs
Not really....
Mets>>PCL(AAA)>>EAS(AA)>>FSL(A+)>>SAL(A)>NYPL(A-)>>APP(R)>>GC L(R-)
And the HWL is like A++, just as the AFL is like AA+. Most players there have played full season ball. It's mostly the best prospects out of A+ and A leagues, a limited number with experience at AA.
The biggest caveat I would have about Duda's HWL performance is sample size. It does look like he shouldn't have any problem handling A+ ball next year though. The other concern is a guy has to hit a LOT to be a 1B prospect. At 1B, Duda's .860 OPS in the NYPL wouldn't be good enough for him to make MLB as a starter. Unless his defense is very good, the HR power obviously needs to develop. He's basically the same age as Evans, and I'd guess probably 6 months behind him at this point in development. So I wouldn't quite rank him with Evans or Carp yet, but he's not that far behind, and you could make a case that he's proven as much as Murphy, Pellot, or Veloz has at this point. Like the man says, all of these "C" guys are pretty interchangeable.
by acerimusdux on
Nov 30, 2007 1:06 PM EST
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