Texas Rangers Top 20 Prospects for 2008

by John Sickels on Nov 24, 2007 12:45 PM EST in News

TEXAS RANGERS TOP 20 PROSPECTS FOR 2008

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

Taylor Teagarden, C, Grade B+ (would be a Grade A- if not for injury history)
Eric Hurley, RHP, Grade B+
Elvis Andrus, SS, Grade B+
Chris Davis, 3B, Grade B+
Matt Harrison, LHP, Grade B+
Michael Main, RHP, Grade B
John Mayberry Jr, OF, Grade B
Kasey Kiker, LHP, Grade B
Max Ramirez, C, Grade B
German Duran, 2B, Grade B
Omar Poveda, RHP, Grade B
Neftali Feliz, RHP, Grade B-
Blake Beavan, RHP, Grade B-
Brandon Boggs, OF, Grade C+
Johnny Whittleman, 3B, Grade C+
Julio Borbon, OF, Grade C+
Tommy Hunter, RHP, Grade C+
Armando Galarraga, RHP, Grade C+
Neil Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+
Brennan Garr, RHP, Grade C+

There are 19 more players in the book including three more Grade C+. Note that a lot of these ratings are interchangeable at this point, and all are preliminary.

This is a loaded system.
UPDATE: Everyone is all up in arms about Engel Beltre and John Mayberry Jr. Grade B is an aggressive grade for Mayberry, I admit that. But he did hit 30 homers and steal 16 bases in 18 attempts this year. Perhaps Grade B is too high and I will consider it more.
But I do NOT understand all the love for Beltre. He's got tools out the wazoo, sure, but he also could barely clear .200 in the Gulf Coast League, and has major problems making contact. He has 75 strikeouts in 65 career games. He's a prospect, sure, but he is a LONG way away, and in my system that makes him a C+ type until the numbers start living up to the hype.

0 recs | Comment 70 comments

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

No Font

Where is Wilmer Font and Carlos Pimental? You have more to base them off of than ramirez? or are you just saying you project ramirez to be that much better than them?

by FishHead on Nov 24, 2007 12:32 PM EST 0 recs

You are right though john

This system is loaded. This list doesnt even have Font, Grullon, Pimental, Martin Perez, Fabio Castillo, Emmanuel Solis, and Engle Beltre who I feel all have high ceilings.

by FishHead on Nov 24, 2007 12:34 PM EST 0 recs

Also...

No Joaquin Arias, no Marcus Lemon, no Zach Phillips, no Thomas Diamond...

by lonestarball on Nov 24, 2007 12:41 PM EST up 0 recs

no

Cristian Santana

by jparks77 on Nov 24, 2007 12:55 PM EST up 0 recs

book

All these guys are in the book.

by John Sickels on Nov 24, 2007 12:59 PM EST up 0 recs

Yes. I've been sitting here waiting for this

while my daughter watches cartoons.

Which players were the most difficult to grade?

Go Rangers!

by rooster on Nov 24, 2007 12:35 PM EST 0 recs

teagarden

looks like I should have had him in my top 50. Can someone familiar with the Rangers tell me about his injury history?

Vacuums: where sock puppets go to die.

by siddfynch on Nov 24, 2007 12:42 PM EST 0 recs

Tommy John at the end of '05

by jparks77 on Nov 24, 2007 12:44 PM EST up 0 recs

TJ surgery in 2006.

DH'd most of the time this year. He should be at full strength and unleashed next year.

Go Rangers!

by rooster on Nov 24, 2007 12:48 PM EST up 0 recs

also

had a broken back. almost simultaneous with the elbow. he should be healthy now....not a history of inuries in college, i don't believe.

i think he'll be a good one, agree with John's rating.

by scooter on Nov 24, 2007 2:17 PM EST up 0 recs

I am little bit surprise

that Eruc Hurley isn't #1 on this list.

by NYYLover1000 on Nov 24, 2007 12:47 PM EST 0 recs

Hurley slides from

A- in 2007 to a B+ for 2008.

Wondering if the slide is due to performance, or whether his stuff also is seen as less impressive (regardless of performance).

Vacuums: where sock puppets go to die.

by siddfynch on Nov 24, 2007 12:50 PM EST up 0 recs

Beltre

I know he is still very young but I'm curious about his grade. I think his ceiling is much higher than some on the list.

by jparks77 on Nov 24, 2007 12:50 PM EST 0 recs

Chad Tracy

What do people (John Sickels or anyone, though preferably John) think of catcher Chad Tracy? Is he a high risk, low upside kind of worthless prospect?

by ultxmxpx on Nov 24, 2007 12:50 PM EST 0 recs

He's not a catcher anymore

He's a COF.

His bat would make him a marginal prospect if he were a catcher.

But now that he's not behind the plate, he's organizational depth.

by lonestarball on Nov 24, 2007 12:51 PM EST up 0 recs

Too early to say that

I wonder if the Rangers agree with that assessment. I doubt it.

by Ajax on Nov 24, 2007 1:52 PM EST up 0 recs

Garr over Madrigal?

by zywica on Nov 24, 2007 1:04 PM EST 0 recs

madrigal

I love Madrigal and did not know that the Rangers had signed him. He'll be on there somewhere. Will write his comment when I get to the Angels.

by John Sickels on Nov 24, 2007 1:25 PM EST up 0 recs

Was

It because they added Madrigal that the Rangers left Jesse Ingram off the 40-man and eligible for the Rule V? I always thought Ingram was our best relief/closer prospect.

by Rangerchick on Nov 24, 2007 2:56 PM EST up 0 recs

The two things that jump out at me...

Mayberry seems way too high...

And Beltre seems too low...

by lonestarball on Nov 24, 2007 1:07 PM EST 0 recs

Yeah I agree

Beltre is not too far behind some of these first round picks that are getting B's and B+'s, and Mayberry has continued to disappoint to me.

I think that Harrison will really benefit in these offseason rankings from his AFL showing. He was pretty uneven in AA, and I would question a B+ based on that and his turf toe induced arm issues. But the way he came out this fall, I wouldn't quarrel so much with the grade.

I think that Wilmer Font belongs on this list, though, along with Beltre.

by zywica on Nov 24, 2007 1:13 PM EST up 0 recs

word

but note that with Beltre, people are saying that if he were in the 2008 draft (which would be his draft if he weren't an IFA), he'd be a solid top-3 pick and possibly #1 overall. Is there anyone else on this list that was ever considered a possible #1 overall?

by mjh on Nov 24, 2007 8:51 PM EST up 0 recs

The closest would probably be

Andrus, who Daniels called a top five pick caliber of talent the day he traded for him.

by zywica on Nov 24, 2007 10:18 PM EST up 0 recs

Beltre

Beltre is a raw tools outfielder who could barely hit .200 in the Gulf Coast League. He did better after the trade, but there are a LOT of raw tools guys out there. Why is he so special? Grade C with higher potential. I want to see him hit outside of Arizona.

by John Sickels on Nov 24, 2007 1:23 PM EST 0 recs

From what I've read...

Beltre's tools are a couple of notches above the other raw tools types.

by Ajax on Nov 24, 2007 1:45 PM EST up 0 recs

I know it has been asked but...

Why are Font, Castillo, and Pimentel ranked so low?

by Ajax on Nov 24, 2007 1:36 PM EST 0 recs

"so low"

You can't expect me to give away the whole book, can you? Lol.

They have good arms but are a long way away. Read the post on my grading system below.

by John Sickels on Nov 24, 2007 1:50 PM EST up 0 recs

btw john

love the chuck norris ref. everytime i look at it, it's like a roundhouse kick into my soul.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Nov 24, 2007 1:37 PM EST 0 recs

Mayberry

can you please explain the Mayberry grade a little bit more? I'm skeptical of Mayberry turning into any sort of major leaguer, let alone one with a successful career. Are you just saying that he will be a solid 4th OF? I just can't see anything in his track record that would indicate anything more than that.

by ab03 on Nov 24, 2007 1:39 PM EST 0 recs

mayberry

Great tools...power, speed.

I find it ironic that a guy who has had some success in Double-A is getting dissed in favor of a guy who can barely hit .200 in rookie ball.

by John Sickels on Nov 24, 2007 1:51 PM EST up 0 recs

JMJ v. Beltre

Beltre hit in Arizona, but even in the GCL, he showed secondary skills...a .208/.310/.400 line, in a very pitcher-friendly league, from a guy who (if he were American) would be a high school senior right now and not even draft-eligible until June 2008...

Mayberry, on the other hand, had a .241/.307/.453 line in Frisco, a good hitting league...not all that much better than Beltre in the GCL.

Beltre's aggregate 2007 minor league numbers of .243/.329/.433 between the GCL, AZL and NWL are similar to what Mayberry did in AA, but Beltre, despite being only 3 levels behind Mayberry (4, if you make short-season-A a discrete level), is 6 years younger than Mayberry.

The consensus seems to be that Mayberry isn't ever going to hit for average, but that he's got great raw power. But he also doesn't draw any walks, which means he's going to have significant on base issues, even assuming he reaches his power potential.

I can see why scouts love Mayberry. He looks like a ballplayer, is a great physical specimen. But he's a COF from a major college program who turns 24 in a month and has never really hit...he's running out of time to turn his tools into performance...

by lonestarball on Nov 24, 2007 2:09 PM EST up 0 recs

Mayberry

A lot of Ranger fans wanted the Rangers to take Ellsbury over him. I think he pales, in their eyes, by comparison with other players whom the Rangers passed on and whom are already in the majors.

by Ajax on Nov 24, 2007 2:13 PM EST up 0 recs

BABIP

Mayberry's BABIP was .255. If it were even .300, which would still be very low for his level, his line would be more like .265/.340/.500. Basically, the general public is down on Mayberry because he was unlucky.

by rwperu34 on Nov 24, 2007 2:23 PM EST up 0 recs

A .300 BABIP

...would not be that low for his level, the Texas League teams ranged from .298 to .315 BABIP...

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/lg.cgi

-peter

by PeterF on Nov 24, 2007 6:30 PM EST up 0 recs

Interesting

I read an article somewhere that outlined the expected BABIPs for each level. It was .300 for the show, like .310 for AAA, .320 for AA, .340 for A+, .350 for A ball, or something like that. Quick math says league average was somwhere around .307 in 2007. It was .315 last year.

On a side note, the Texas League must be putting their balls in a humidor or something, becaues they only scored 4.63 RPG as a league, compared to 4.62 and 4.57 for the Eastern and Southern Leagues respectively.

by rwperu34 on Nov 24, 2007 7:59 PM EST up 0 recs

Texas League BABIP was...

315. Mayberry's LD% was average in the league (17.9 to 17.7% for league avg). So that earlier projection was still probably a little short for his time in AA. But how about his time in High A this year:

229/313/502/815 with a 238 BABIP and a 8.2 LD% So which is the true mayberry? The guy who cant hit a LD to save his life, or the guy who was league average and unlucky? Without a doubt he'll strikeout a decent amount (26% for 2007) and most likely hit for a low average (13.5 LD% in 2006, 15.3 LD% in 2005, minor league BA so far of 251).

To say he doesn't draw walks makes no sense, his average IsoB has been right around .85.

His line so far 251/336/468/804 is probably a good reflection of what he'll be in the majors. however, he obviously has the tools to get even better power, but there is a large amount of bust potential there with the lack of solid contact and higher than you'd like k rates. He made a solid AA transition, but it also wasnt a full season of possible pitching adjustments.

I'm still not sold on mayberry ever being much better than average based on his results so far, so I'm definately a bit perplexed about john's ranking here. To me he seems like a guy who is headed towards being an average RF but doing it pretty rather than a guy who is going to be above average in any particular way. A low 800 OPS RF with a little defense and some semblance of speed does very little for me, sure its serviceable, but a B grade? I'd say closer to B-

by jspearlj1 on Nov 25, 2007 8:26 AM EST up 0 recs

I think grade "B" is just right for JMJ

He is improving. Remember that his swing had to be reconstructed, and he had to be taught to pull the ball consistently. He seems to have learned that.

My position on Mayberry is this: as intelligent as he is supposed to be, if anyone can figure out how to make the most of his prodigious tools, it is Mayberry. If he can't figure it out, it can't be figured out.

by Ajax on Nov 24, 2007 2:24 PM EST up 0 recs

As For Matt Harrison...

You seem to be higher on him, John, than a lot of other observers have been recently. Did his AFL performance put him back on the map?

by Ajax on Nov 24, 2007 1:42 PM EST 0 recs

harrison

he was hitting 92-93 in Arizona. I've always liked him, maybe more than I should.

by John Sickels on Nov 24, 2007 1:52 PM EST up 0 recs

That sounds very promising

Wasn't he generally around 88-89 mph most of last season?

by Ajax on Nov 24, 2007 1:57 PM EST up 0 recs

yeah

yes.

by John Sickels on Nov 24, 2007 1:59 PM EST up 0 recs

Julio Borbon

C+? Seriously? That was definitely a shock to me.

by RedSoxFaithful on Nov 24, 2007 1:47 PM EST 0 recs

very shaky strike zone judgment.

This is a minority opinion but I have a few doubts about Borbon.

by John Sickels on Nov 24, 2007 1:52 PM EST up 0 recs

Engel Beltre

I saw him play a game in Arizona and was not impressed. His tools did not jump out and scream to me. He was fairly fast and showed a decent arm, but nothing extraordinary. He's also very small. That 6'0", 180 listing is a farce. He looked more like 5'10", 155 to me. Even if he were 6'0", the most he weighs is 165.

by rwperu34 on Nov 24, 2007 2:10 PM EST 0 recs

Who lists him at 180?

Every indication people who have seen him have given that I've seen is that he is legitimately 6-0, but I don't think that anyone claims that he's 180. milb.com has him at 6-1, 169.

by zywica on Nov 24, 2007 10:56 PM EST up 0 recs

Beaven at #13?

I don't believe there are 12 better prospects in the system than Beaven. I know he hasn't pitched any pro innings yet, but his HS career as well as his international experience and size make should place him far higher. Wouldn't be surprised is he tops this list next year.

by my dixie wrecked on Nov 24, 2007 2:28 PM EST 0 recs

couple of things

20% of the top 20 (4 of the top 12 in fact) were once in the Atlanta system. Frankly not a bad way to build a system imo. :-)

Of these, Harrison is the one whose rank/grade surprises me the most. I never really understood what people saw in him. Neither his K-rate or BB-rate impressed me very much, and he didn't really get GBs at an exceptional rate, either. The only real positive was that he was left-handed.

I still don't think he's all that and a bag of chips. His BABIP in the winter league is sub-.200, and his walk-rate has gotten worse at each successive level. He still doesn't get GBs any better than league-average, and he K/BB is okay-but-not-amazing.

I guess another positive has been his ability to throw a lot of innings; before his injury-shortened 2007 he was above 150 IP each of his professional years. So I guess it's not unreasonable to project him as an innings-eater.... I think I just see him more as Jason Marquis than Aaron Harang (to use RH-comps).

by mraver on Nov 24, 2007 3:18 PM EST 0 recs

3 of top 20 are from the Braves

Andrus, Harrison, Feliz.

Beau Jones, who also came over in the Teixeira trade, should rate at least C.

by LukeR on Nov 24, 2007 5:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Max Ramirez

Ramirez was traded from ATL to CLE last year in the Wickman deal.

So like I said, 4 of the top 12 were once in Atlanta's system. ^_^

by mraver on Nov 24, 2007 5:19 PM EST up 0 recs

love the B already for Main

I think he will be one of the 4 or 5 best players to come from that draft. I really wish they would consider letting him play a position full time and just pitch in relief on occasion. As gifted a right arm as this kid has he is that much better an athlete; great quickness, tremendous bat speed, sound mechanics. He will definitely put some fannies in the seats doing that. I certainly understand why they want him to concentrate on pitching but he has first rate hitting skills, and pitching prospects being what they are, his chances would increase playing full time elsewhere on the diamond.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Nov 24, 2007 3:33 PM EST 0 recs

My top 20 FWIW

Beltre
Davis
Andrus
Hurley
Kiker
C. Santana
Main
Beavan
Teagarden
Feliz
Duran
N. Ramirez
M. Ramirez
M. Harrison
F. Castillo
Font
Boggs
Whittleman
Diamond
Poveda

I'm more worried about Teagarden's injury history than I should be I guess. I love him, but it seems like he may be a 25 year old in a 31 year old body.

Beltre is the only player in the system who people regard as a legit #1 overall type if he were in a draft (which, by the way, would be the 2008 draft). Why do you ignore his .310 / .388 / .583 in the AZL?

I had one big question about Davis when he came to Frisco. And he answered it. And his brand of power makes Mayberry look like Juan Pierre.

It's hard to watch Mayberry play very often and still think highly of him.

Hurley is still a flawed and limited pitcher IMO. He locates a plus fastball exceedingly well and he's got killer instinct. Both secondary offerings are sub-par and inconsistent (granted, the slider is occasionally nasty).

I'm a Boggs guy. Always have been. Glad to see that you are too JS. That dude's a player.

Thomas Diamond is still alive, BTW.

by mjh on Nov 24, 2007 4:44 PM EST 0 recs

all due respect

that's just a crazy list. I understand different strokes for different folks, but that's to vastly underrate teagarden -- TJ surgery for a catcher isn't that big of a deal, really. The guy gets A+ marks for his defense and apparently can hit surprisingly well, too. On Beltre well, I guess I'd just reiterate what JS has already said.

other vast disagreements, too, but gotta run.

by scooter on Nov 24, 2007 5:22 PM EST up 0 recs

yep

ugly.

by Longhorn on Nov 24, 2007 6:42 PM EST up 0 recs

ok

other than TT (and I agree that he could be #1...) why is it crazy / ugly?

by mjh on Nov 24, 2007 8:02 PM EST up 0 recs

oh

i just think i more or less agree with JS's list. I like Harrison and Feliz and Teagarden more than you, and think Davis will never be anythign more than a fringe player.

but, hey, that's the fun in this!

by scooter on Nov 24, 2007 8:49 PM EST up 0 recs

Indeed

it's just crazy-good that we can have a top-20 posted by a guy like John that doesn't include a spicy young talent like Beltre or Santana or a first-ronder like TD, and yet you can't really argue with him.

Good times Rangers fans.......

by mjh on Nov 24, 2007 8:56 PM EST up 0 recs

+1

That's what I'm talking about.

by jparks77 on Nov 24, 2007 7:28 PM EST up 0 recs

Cristian Santana

why did he only play 33 games this year?

by tricer on Nov 24, 2007 7:52 PM EST up 0 recs

Labrum surgery on his right shoulder

I believe he missed the entire '06 season as well.

by jparks77 on Nov 24, 2007 7:59 PM EST up 0 recs

Volquez

Any thoughts on where volquez would rank if still eligible?

by hungry hipo on Nov 24, 2007 5:12 PM EST 0 recs

Max Ramirez

Didn't hear anything about him going from Cleveland to Texas. Does anybody have any details on that?

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 24, 2007 5:47 PM EST 0 recs

Lofton trade

by LukeR on Nov 24, 2007 5:50 PM EST up 0 recs

where

do you think the system ranks among others.

by dstar442005 on Nov 24, 2007 6:47 PM EST 0 recs

Watch out for Whitty...

Whittleman is under-graded and will surprise many people when he moves up to AA next season.

Watch out world...B or B+ for Whitty next season!

by clubbiety on Nov 24, 2007 7:55 PM EST 0 recs

What do you see out of Andrus in the future

I guess some people see him become like Derek Jeter while other see Omar Vizquel or Orlando Cabrera. I think he's going to become another Renteria with a better glove.

by Bravesin07 on Nov 24, 2007 10:30 PM EST 0 recs

Andrus

Dayton Moore compared him to Jeter I remember.

by doublestix on Nov 24, 2007 11:11 PM EST up 0 recs

Andrus

models himself after Jeter as well.

by jparks77 on Nov 25, 2007 9:38 AM EST up 0 recs

Renteria

While they're not the same physically, I think that's a great comp in terms of potential production.

by Jamey Newberg on Nov 25, 2007 9:47 AM EST up 0 recs

Andrus

I've always thought of him as more of an Orlando Cabrera.
On a different note: If Salts had stayed in the minors this year, continuing to put up numbers like he did before being called up (.309/.404/.617 in AA) what sort of grade would that have warranted? And is his sudden aversion to walks at the major league level viewed as a flaw or a temporary setback?

sportsdeals.blogspot.com

by Rangers Farmhand on Nov 25, 2007 10:25 AM EST up 0 recs