Chicago Cubs Top 20 Prospects for 2008

by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2007 12:18 AM EST in News

Geovany Soto found his inner predator in 2007

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+ (tough call, see commentary below)
Geovany Soto, C, Grade B+ (tough call, see commentary below)
Sean Gallagher, RHP, Grade B
Eric Patterson, 2B-OF, Grade B (I dropped him from B+ due to defense)
Tyler Colvin, OF, Grade B
Josh Donaldson, C, Grade B
Donald Veal, LHP, Grade B-
Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Grade B-
Jose Ceda, RHP, Grade B-
Tony Thomas, 2B, Grade B-
Billy Petrick, RHP, Grade C+
Kevin Hart, RHP, Grade C+
Sam Fuld, OF, Grade C+
Jake Fox, C-1B, Grade C+
Allesandro Maestri, RHP, Grade C+
Steve Clevenger, C, Grade C+
Mitch Atkins, RHP, Grade C
Mark Holliman, RHP, Grade C
Matt Craig, 3B, Grade C
Larry Suarez, RHP, Grade C
Ryan Acosta, RHP, Grade C

These systems with lots of Grade C guys are hard to do. There are 15 other guys in the book who rate as Grade C, any of them could slot into the back end of the top 20 depending on what you are looking for. If someone you like isn't mentioned here, point it out in the comments and I'll tell you if he is in the book, or if I overlooked him.

Baseball America's list should come out on Monday, and I imagine it could be substantially different.

The hardest part is the top two. Who would you rather have? Vitters or Soto? Vitters is the big-name guy, of course, the hot first round pick, young and talented. But he was so BAD after signing. How seriously should we take a 14-game sample size? Soto's ceiling isn't as high as Vitters', but he's already major league ready.

Don't forget to Pre-Order the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book. It will have full reports on all these players and over 1,000 others. Shipping the first Monday in February!

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Comments

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Fuld and Fox. Each have no future with the Cubs and really aren't that great of players. Fuld is a bench guy at best... Fox is a flameout candidate, no ability to judge the strikezone.

Josh Donaldson is probably a better prospect than Eric Patterson is, although Patterson is a lot closer to the bigs.. Also no love for Casey Lambert? I think he should at least get an HM.. especially over guys likeCraig and Clevenger and Suarez.

Also no Robert Hernandez? young, but highly talented, and put up decent numbers in Peoria for a 19 year old. Exhibited control and an above average K-PA for a 19 year old.

I'm dissapointed I guess.

by cubsfan2883 on Nov 19, 2007 12:19 AM EST 0 recs

Fuld/Fox/Clevenger

Cubs fan here.

I think you underrate Fuld. Here's a guy who has better defense than given credit for (solid arm and plus range). Superb discipline. Not going to hit for much pop (although there is some gap power), but he had a solid year at AA, a solid small sample size at AAA, and raked in the AFL. Obviously, if he's not in CF, then yes, he's more of a 4th OF. But I think there's a small chance he could be a decent CF, although mroe than likely, a Reggie Willits type role is possible. All that said, I think C+ is quite fair, considering the limited upside, but the potential to reach the bigs.

As for Mr. No Position, I don't disagree. He could struggle. That said, he's not that old, and he still hit in 100 AB's at Iowa this past year. He should get some credit for that. I've got no problem with him in the top 20.

I like Lambert as well. That said, he was a college arm in Peoria. Seems like a small jab at Steve Clevenger. While his defensive future is still up in the air (will be interesting how the catching situation plays out ... ), he's a guy that, simply put, can put bat on ball. Was discussing this on another board, but I wouldn't be surprised if BA decided to give Clevenger the best average tools nod for the Cubs. Great discipline.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 3:46 AM EST up 0 recs

Fuld

based on what, his .265 average at AAA as a 25 year old. Let's be honest, he is abench player. His OBP is empty, he's not a skilled 30-40 SB guy.. he plays defensively well enough, he is an average hitter.. essentially this guy is nothing more than a backup I had him as the Cubs 20th best spect.. maybe lower than that, I thought I was being generous. I simply don't like him... I think he's realized his potential though.. and I think he'll be on the Cubs as a backup (4th or 5th OF'er) with the Cubs next year.

by cubsfan2883 on Nov 19, 2007 12:16 PM EST up 0 recs

fuld

I disagree about Fuld, I think he's going to be a really useful fourth outfielder. Fox could be overrated at C+, yes. Will reconsider.

Hernandez? Hmmm....projectable, young, numbers are so-so. Could go in.

by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2007 12:32 AM EST 0 recs

Is it possible

that Fuld has a career similar to ryan freel, less the ability to play the infield and with fewer stolen bases?

Freel never exactly tore it up in the minors but his major league and minor league career lines are remarkably similar.

Might be wishcasting but I feel that Fuld will be a very good 4th outfielder who could start for some teams in CF during his peak period.

by circuitclout on Nov 19, 2007 9:19 AM EST up 0 recs

lambert

Lambert is in the book already.

by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2007 12:33 AM EST 0 recs

2 others?

Any thoughts on Kyler Burke,OF, or Scott Moore,3B?

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 19, 2007 12:36 AM EST 0 recs

Moore

Traded to BAL in the Trashcal deal...

by doublestix on Nov 19, 2007 12:37 AM EST up 0 recs

my thoughts on Burke

really nice to see him do well in the HWL, but he really struggled this year. Even in Boise, he didn't really stand out. I think Kyler being out of the top 20 for now is probably fair.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 3:49 AM EST up 0 recs

moore

Moore was traded to the Orioles. Burke is in the book, Grade C.

by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2007 12:37 AM EST 0 recs

Huseby

How about Chris Huseby?

by NMUWildcat027 on Nov 19, 2007 12:40 AM EST 0 recs

VItters

Don't know if he is going to turn out to be a bust or not, but I don't think a 14 game sample size for a HS draftee means anything at all.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 19, 2007 12:59 AM EST 0 recs

+1

A 14 game sample size means absolutely nothing to me. In fact I don't take short season stats all that serious.

by parrot11 on Nov 19, 2007 2:19 AM EST up 0 recs

+1

Absolutely love this kid's stroke. Who knows how he's going to turn out but you can see why the scouts said he may be the best hitting prospect in the draft. That extension through the ball is sick.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by HuskerBob on Nov 19, 2007 9:15 AM EST up 0 recs

Veal

Curious about the grade. Its been a while since he has shown any control. He does strike out a bunch of people, but at what point does control become an issue? He is not really young relative to league either.

I might think about dropping him to C+, cos he might end up just being a reliever.

by Godot on Nov 19, 2007 1:26 AM EST 0 recs

Veal's control

Was much improved the 2nd half. While I still wonder if he ends up as a pen arm, I think he deserves some benefit of the doubt because of a solid 2nd half.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 3:51 AM EST up 0 recs

Oh no...

I read this type of comment about Veal and worry he's the next Corwin Malone, another power lefty who had control troubles who hasn't panned out.

I drafted each of them in my Strato league and that's why I have the comparison so quick in mind.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Nov 19, 2007 8:39 AM EST up 0 recs

Malone

Most of Malone's trouble was he blew out his arm right as he seemed to have figured things out, missed a year and a 1/2, and then had to start over from scratch at age 26-27.

Maybe is a parallel universe somehwere Malone didn't get hurt and is now a servicable #4 starter somewhere

by ScottAZ on Nov 19, 2007 9:54 AM EST up 0 recs

Mark Pawelek

That's a pretty precipitous fall. I thought he might still get a C+ at least.

by aCone419 on Nov 19, 2007 2:04 AM EST 0 recs

Quite a Shame

I had hope for Mark entering 2007. But there must be something that we don't know (outside of the work ethic thing that was floating around)... as he really wasn't given a chance at Peoria, and then got himself hurt at Boise, and ended up being quite mediocre out of Boise's pen. I know there are supposedly some positive reports on his instruct work, but I think at this point, considering he might not be a definite option to start at Peoria, it's sort of a show me situation. Show me you've got something Mark. Still young enough to speed things up, but gotta get his act together.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 3:53 AM EST up 0 recs

I'll add

no Chris Huseby? I certainly would rather take him than Ryan Acosta. (And I actually like Acosta.)

I don't think 14 games after being idle most of the summer means a thing. Your ranking is fine, although I put Soto #1, just because he's major league ready.

Good calls on Maestri and Clevenger, who I think are the two fastest risers in the organization.

Do you not consider Kevin Hart eligible? He pitched so well down the stretch he got named to the playoff roster.

by Josh77 on Nov 19, 2007 3:00 AM EST 0 recs

Overall, looks nice

Looks like a solid list for the most part. No glaring difference of opinion.

Some thoughts -

Kevin Hart should still be rookie eligible.

Josh Vitters sample shouldn't be enough to worry anyone just yet.

Veal was much improved, control wise, the 2nd half of the year. A sign?

Kyle Reynolds doesn't get C+ credit for the strong high A/AA campaign?

A tad surprised Darwin Barney and Chris Huseby didn't get C+ credit. Forthe latter, I guess the loss of stuff might be enough of a concern. For Barney, dunno. I thought he looked solid enough, showing a better bat than some expected, considering it was in the MWL.

I would rank some of whoever your other C's are ahead of guys like Matt Craig (I mean, considering the age), Holliman (mediocrity), Suarez (may have a high ceiling, but a long ways away and didn't show any signs of consistency). If not some of the above guys, then maybe a college guy or two from this past class, or one of the young arms, like Dolis (that said, got injured too early) or Hernandez.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 3:32 AM EST 0 recs

Kroeger

On a side note, I think he's still rookie eligible, and I'd place him ahead of, say, a Matt Craig.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 6:08 AM EST 0 recs

Soto

I'd chose Soto over Vitters anyday. I can definitly see Soto on the Cubs Opening Day Roster, either as a Bench Player or Starter.

by Abbath on Nov 19, 2007 9:35 AM EST 0 recs

You want Hank White starting?

Soto will be in the starting lineup

by FanBall on Nov 19, 2007 12:05 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Hank

I've seen the Cubs make dumber decisions.

by wibadger on Nov 19, 2007 1:09 PM EST up 0 recs

LOL

Nice WI Badger

At least the Cubs make the playoffs

by FanBall on Nov 19, 2007 9:14 PM EST up 0 recs

actually a cubbies fan

but i've seen some real head scratchers in my 20 years of life from the cubs organization.

by wibadger on Nov 19, 2007 11:26 PM EST up 0 recs

Kevin Hart?

Hart just made BA's top 10. Wondering what you guys think of him.

by mckeeno on Nov 19, 2007 11:25 AM EST 0 recs

The BA List

Nothing real surprising in the top 10. A bit surprised that Tony Thomas got best average.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265209.html

TOP TEN
PROSPECTS

Josh Vitters, 3b
Geovany Soto, c/1b
Tyler Colvin, of
Jose Ceda, rhp
Sean Gallagher, rhp
Donald Veal, lhp
Josh Donaldson, c
Jeff Samardzija, rhp
Tony Thomas, 2b
Kevin Hart, rhp

BEST
TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average Tony Thomas
Best Power Hitter Josh Vitters
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Sam Fuld
Fastest Baserunner Leon Johnson
Best Athlete Tyler Colvin
Best Fastball Jose Ceda
Best Curveball Casey Lambert
Best Slider Alessandro Maestri
Best Changeup James Russell
Best Control Mark Holliman
Best Defensive Catcher Welington Castillo
Best Defensive Infielder Josh Lansford
Best Infield Arm Josh Lansford
Best Defensive Outfielder Sam Fuld
Best Outfield Arm Kyler Burke

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 11:53 AM EST 0 recs

kevin Hart

I should have put Kevin Hart in. That's an oversight.

by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2007 12:04 PM EST 0 recs

That's cool John, juggling 600 Top Prospects

Someone is bound to slip through the cracks especially when he pitched so many MLB innings down the stretch.

What grade would you give him though?

by FanBall on Nov 19, 2007 12:07 PM EST up 0 recs

This picture should have...

...been posted with your cool off diary.

by emac2 on Nov 19, 2007 12:10 PM EST 0 recs

Hart

Hart looks like a C+/B- type to me. Am thinking about it.

by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2007 12:11 PM EST 0 recs

Hart

Gave Hart a C+ and put him on the list at 12.

by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2007 12:37 PM EST 0 recs

Curious why

Petrick is ahead of Hart.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 3:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Choice

Good choice, John.

by Abbath on Nov 19, 2007 4:04 PM EST up 0 recs

petrick

They are pretty close to interchangeable. Petrick's track record (aside from health concerns) is better, Hart never did much before this year really.

by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2007 4:09 PM EST 0 recs

My new theory

That John is in fact having a sophisticated, twisted laugh at the rest of us; for instance, I have noticed that only the users "John Sickels" and "Bravesin07" fail to utilize the "reply to this" button, but instead generate a new, separate comment. Coincidence? Or sock puppetry?

My guess is that the most bizarre posters (Bravesin07, LaGoofy, JobatheGreat, CrimsonLiederhosen, GoGoTabata, McLovin, BartonBoi, etc) are actually the different sides of John's personality, staged in a perpetual, virtual cage match.

Very po-mo!

by gogotabata on Nov 19, 2007 4:26 PM EST 0 recs

so...

Is this whole site really some Philip K Dick story come to life?

by mckeeno on Nov 19, 2007 5:32 PM EST up 0 recs

Do Prospect Mavens

Dream of Electric Ben Sheets?

by gogotabata on Nov 20, 2007 12:18 AM EST up 0 recs

LOL

nice...

by Yakker on Nov 21, 2007 1:38 PM EST up 0 recs

the Ryans?

Malone and Harvey - both officially ex-prospects or can one of them or both of them make it back?

by scrllb on Nov 19, 2007 5:33 PM EST 0 recs

Do you mean Ryne?

I don't know of a Ryan Malone in the Cubs system. Ryne showed some promise last year, but went through his ups and downs this year. I figure a C is probably reasonable for him, and I certainly wouldn't put him in our top 20.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 10:10 PM EST up 0 recs

Ryne Malone

Yes I mean Ryne Malone and Ryan Harvey - are you suggesting a c for ryne - if so - what about ryan harvey?

by scrllb on Nov 20, 2007 1:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Ryan Harvey

I'd imagine that he's off the grid with the move to pitching.

by toonsterwu on Nov 20, 2007 5:14 PM EST up 0 recs

ryan harvey?

He is now a pitcher??? Can you send me more info on this??

by scrllb on Nov 21, 2007 9:36 AM EST up 0 recs

I'll try to dig something up

I don't have it on hand, but I was pretty certain that there was a small line in some report awhile ago (past month or two) that said he was moving to pitching.

by toonsterwu on Nov 21, 2007 10:42 AM EST up 0 recs

the book

btw - want to order the book from canada - but not clear on the price?

by scrllb on Nov 19, 2007 5:33 PM EST 0 recs

Yes

Yes, me too.

by Abbath on Nov 19, 2007 6:17 PM EST up 0 recs

canada

Click the "International shipping" button on johnsickels.com. Canadian orders are $34.95.

by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2007 7:24 PM EST up 0 recs

or

Or you can send a check/money order to

John Sickels BPB 2008
PO Box 4066
Lawrence, KS 66046

by John Sickels on Nov 19, 2007 7:24 PM EST up 0 recs

Soto

Putting Vitters #1 is the easy thing to do, everyone loves the new hot prospect. But I think Soto should be #1 on the 08 list, and Vitters would be #1 on the 09 list. But that depends how you look at it, I guess maybe I put more importance on being close to the majors than most.

by GoldenSpikes24 on Nov 19, 2007 6:35 PM EST 0 recs

New Hot Prospect

That title would also have to apply to Soto. He was never better than the Cubs' 14th best prospect going into '07. Even as late as last year, Geovanny was projected as nothing more than a backup. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Nov 19, 2007 6:55 PM EST up 0 recs

Where

Do you rank their system overall? Personally, I think it's better and deeper than most will give them credit for. I'd put them in the mid to late teens at the worst. Mahalo

Matt

I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Nov 19, 2007 7:33 PM EST 0 recs

I agree

We lack that top level talent, but there's much better depth than the year before. Personally, I'd grade a few more guys as C+'s, but to each their own and it's a small difference. I think mid-teens is likely, depending on who judges it.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 10:11 PM EST up 0 recs

2 Pitchers

They've already been mentioned but I think Chris Huseby and Robert Hernandez are omissions. What about LHP James Russell? Granted he didn't even have 10 IP after signing.

by Raisin on Nov 19, 2007 9:42 PM EST 0 recs

huseby

Huseby, Hernandez, and Russell are all Grade C at thsi time. I think Huseby is overrated.

by John Sickels on Nov 20, 2007 12:42 AM EST up 0 recs

out of curiousity

how so? I haven't seen anyone tout him up as, say, a top 12 prospect of ours, which would, at best, put him in basically a C+ category for us. Now, I think a C is fine, but Huseby did have solid numbers for his age 19 season. Yes, the control and average "stuff" was a concern, but considering he was a former TJ, I think the optimists are hoping that with another year of recovery time, he might regain some "stuff".

I mean, if folks were touting him up as, say, a top 10-12 prospect, I'd agree with the assessment that he's overrated. I guess I'm just curious why exactly you chose to say overrated in this case. I do want to make clear that I'm fine with a C grade. I think that's probably reasonable with the command and "stuff" questions. I just tend to think that a 20 year old Chris Husbey with a solid year behind him and likely to start at Peoria is more intriguing is more intriguing than a 27 year old Matt Craig, if comparing C prospects, but that said, it isn't such a glaring issue.

That said, of the three arms, I'd rate Robert Hernandez first, followed probably by Huseby then Russell.

by toonsterwu on Nov 20, 2007 7:13 AM EST up 0 recs

Then you'd probably also rate Tony Butler a C too

Correct?
One is a power lefty with above average stuff, the other is a power righty with above average stuff.

Birthdays Hernandez: 10/7/88
Butler: 11/18/87

So Butler's actually a full year older than Hernandez. They both were in the Midwest league.

K/PA: Hernandez : 16.1%
Butler - 19.3%

BB/PA: Hernandez: 6.4%
Butler : 12.4%

So while it appears that Butler might strike more guys out, it would appear based on this year that Hernandez has better control. Also how much can you attribute Butler's strikeouts to simply exceptional velocity for that league.

BABIP / FIP:

BABIP: Hernandez : .300
Butler: .292

FIP: Hernandez: 4.27
Butler: 4.90

It appears that Butler's D was a little better behind him than was Hernandez's. Is it statistically significant? I'm not sure I would go that far,but Hernandez's Fielding Independent ERA was nearly 3/4 of a run better.

HR/Air:

Hernandez: 5%
Butler : 9%

That could be part of the reason that Butler struggled so much, again it seemed he walked a bunch of people, which could be a sign of erratic control/ leaving the ball up in the zone would show a sign of weakness there.

Grades:
Hernandez C?
Butler (B- last year) But no grade this year.

My point is if Butler a prospect who is eminently statistically comparable to Hernandez is a B- .. Hernandez should be at least a C+ perhaps a B- himself. Hernandez might be the 3rd or 4th best pitching prospect that the Cubs have depending on your perceptions of guys like Samardzija, Huseby, and Pawelek.

by cubsfan2883 on Nov 20, 2007 7:31 PM EST up 0 recs

Toonster:

Hey it's fischbowl: Where The f*** have you been???

Fuld should be higher. I'd love to see him in CF for my O's next year if we can somehow trade for him.

Member: Coalition For The Advancement Of Greek Baseball Players

by fischbowl on Nov 19, 2007 9:49 PM EST 0 recs

I've been around/Fuld

Interesting that a couple O's boards I've checked out has O's fans wanting Fuld. Mildly surprised as I certainly wouldn't have put him at the top of any "radar" list. That said, maybe O's fans are looking more in depth at the Cubs system due to McPhail and the recent legion of former Cubs prospects there. Even money says Brian Dopirak ends up in the O's system, and maybe some of the older guys, at some point.

by toonsterwu on Nov 19, 2007 10:13 PM EST up 0 recs