2008 community prospect ratings: Fernando Martinez

by mrkupe on Nov 14, 2007 12:32 AM EST

This thread is for discussion of Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets. Links to his minor league statistical record:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=30926
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Fernando%20Martinez&pos=OF&sid=mil b&t=p_pbp&pid=494686
http://firstinning.com/players/Fernando-Martinez-a/

Thread will be open for at least 48 hours. Keep in mind that you get one vote and only one vote, so hold off on clicking that little button until you've definitely made up your mind. Also remember that your vote represents your opinion of the prospect in question - NOT that of John Sickels, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect, or anybody else you can think of who might be capable of picking 100 names at random out of a hat.

I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:

the numerical ratings should follow this scale:

10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1

the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.

for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.

Poll

How good a prospect is Fernando Martinez?

7

37 votes

6

12 votes

5

6 votes

4

2 votes

3

1 votes

2

1 votes

1

1 votes

10

7 votes

9

28 votes

8

37 votes

132 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 10 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Voted for a 7

He is too young right now and has been injured too often. Next season when he is healthy and back in AA he could become a 10 though. I really like his swing. He has been challenged thus far but the injuries scare me thats the main reason for the 7.

by JD Sussman on Nov 14, 2007 10:38 AM EST reply actions

f-mart

i think he's an 8 or 9. he didn't respond wonderfully to the mets pushing him up to AA, but he's still incredibly young for the level and he didn't exactly embarrass himself. basically if he had stayed healthy or hit any better, he'd be a 10, right?

by jpahk on Nov 14, 2007 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

He could be a 10

The Mets surely market him as a 10. I really love his bat I think he'll be similar to Bobby Abreu as an MLB player pre-homerun derby. A lot Less SB maybe more power. But overall a similar player as a corner OF.

That to me is a 10. His ARL is great, but his injuries are scary and he didn't produce at a 10 level. A 10 level with his ARL would be 280/360/480-510. He was disappointing with shoty defense. But I'm optimistic i'll be a top 10 guy next season.

by JD Sussman on Nov 14, 2007 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

+1

I also voted for a 7 rating. The injuries are my big concern. If he's having this many problems with injuries at 18, what is he going to be like in the bigs at 22 when he adds more muscle and loses some flexibility?

That being said, if he can stay healthy, he could be an 8 or a 9 easily. 10? He would have to show me more power production to justify that rating, in addition to staying healthy.

by guru4u on Nov 14, 2007 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

I voted a 4

I think ARL is sometimes overrated around prospect sites. Other then 200 at bats as a 17 year old in A ball Martinez hasnt shown me anything.

On upside, IMHO, Martinez is probably a 7, but I just think his chance of reaching that is probably 25% or so at this point.

For me to rate him above a 6.5 he needs to cut down on the K's, show a lot more power, improve on defense and walk more.

An 8 or 9 is a prospect I think can be a perenially all-star, Martinez is going to be a left fielder most likely, to be an allstar there I would have to think he is capable of posting a .900 OPS, and I just dont see that.

by Kanst42 on Nov 14, 2007 3:59 PM EST reply actions

Dont think I articulated well enough

I re-read and saw that I really didnt put my complaints. These are some of them:

For someone who is supposed to hit for power he doesnt hit enough line drives, only 10% of his BIP were line drives and 61% were groundballs. As a corner outfielder he is going to have to hit for a lot of power, and I dont see that unless his BIP changes a lot.

His K/BB ratio is pretty poor, to forecast a good BA in the future I like to see a guy who can control the strike zone early.

I know he has always been young for his league but I just dont give that all that much weight.

The injuries are scary and definately concern me about his chances of reaching his ceiling.

Basically I look at FMart and I see another coming of Juan Encarnacion, if he makes the bigs at all, and for me that equals a 4 rating

by Kanst42 on Nov 14, 2007 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

went 9

sticking to my guns -- he's an elite talent, and what he's done at his age is pretty damn impressive.

when you put an 18-year-old in Double-A, you're expecting competence at best. the fact that he was able to pull off such competence is really impressive.

i think a lot of people get "stuck" on production they can read in the paper. this is not being more "statistically-minded"; it's just lacking foresight.

if you thought he had talent before, this year shouldn't change your opinion of him at all. as jpahk said, if he'd been PRODUCTIVE in Double-A, that would make him a projected HOF-type player.

by bleedjaxblue on Nov 14, 2007 4:08 PM EST reply actions

agree 100%

with one caveat, his defense. In under 2 yrs he has gone from a projected CF (where you have some stat flexibility) to a corner, now to the point more than a few are saying he's not an OF at all. So does he have the kind of power that would work at 1B or will he become more of a Youkilis type player on offense? Call me old fashioned but I like my all star 1B to carry around 35-40 HR power.

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Nov 14, 2007 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

Response

Fernando gets a 6 from me. Which isn't to say that I don't like him.

I'm not even really worried about the lack of overall production in AA . . .he did passably enough there to make me think that he'll be able to hit.

I'm more concerned about the overall trends in his game. He keeps getting hurt and spending a ton of time on the shelf. He shows okay plate discipline but nothing special. His defense appears to be a total trainwreck. Breaking it down from a scouting perspective, I see one tool that I like (hitting for average) and one tool that seems likely to develop (hitting for power). So basically, I'm not seeing great things from either a scouting or statistical perspective . . .so what am I to go on?

I think he projects as a decent regular at a position low on the defensive spectrum. I don't begrudge anybody for putting him at 8-9, but I can't think of a good reason for doing it. I feel very comfortable with him at 6, a solid B prospect who might get a B+ on a sunny day.

by mrkupe on Nov 15, 2007 12:47 PM EST reply actions