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2008 community prospect ratings: Chris Tillman

This thread is for discussion of Chris Tillman, RHP, Seattle Mariners. Links to his minor league statistical record:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=31507
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Chris%20Tillman&pos=P&sid=milb& ;t=p_pbp&pid=501957
http://firstinning.com/players/Christopher-Tillman-a/

Thread will be open for at least 48 hours. Keep in mind that you get one vote and only one vote, so hold off on clicking that little button until you've definitely made up your mind. Also remember that your vote represents your opinion of the prospect in question - NOT that of John Sickels, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect, or anybody else you can think of who might be capable of picking 100 names at random out of a hat.

I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:

the numerical ratings should follow this scale:

10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1

the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.

for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.

Poll
How good a prospect is Chris Tillman?
4
6 votes
3
3 votes
2
0 votes
1
2 votes
10
1 votes
9
3 votes
8
10 votes
7
23 votes
6
28 votes
5
11 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments

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before you vote
compare his ERA to his team's ERA (and league), look at his last two months, and look at the team defense behind him.  

This kid is a stud and a major sleeper as a prospect.

by vaclipper on Nov 14, 2007 6:13 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

True, however...
His stuff isn't good enough to profile as more than a #3 at the big league level. He's still young and could add a couple more miles to his fastball, but even if he has that, it's not close to a plus pitch without gaining unforeseen command. If he can do that or make some unforeseen ground on his changeup, then I'd call him a great prospect. But as is, I voted 6.

I see a K/9 of 7 or so in his future as a big leaguer right now and he'd be lucky to develop average groundball tendencies. Now unless he learns to limit his walks to a plus level and gain plus command, I don't see him having stud career as a starter.

I still like Tony Butler better.

by elrey34 on Nov 14, 2007 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oooohh!
Now we're talking ... solid 7 .. trending way up!
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Nov 14, 2007 9:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

under the radar
if he can put up great K/BB's in high desert at age 19, he's a guy to watch in my book. i may be too optimistic about him, but i think a year from now, he'll be a clear 8. which, to my mind, makes him an 8 right now.

by jpahk on Nov 15, 2007 3:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

freeze
1 2
2 0
3 3
4 6
5 11
6 27
7 22
8 9
9 3
10 1

by jpahk on Nov 16, 2007 1:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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